• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Why Does the ONS Sample Under-Represent Vaccinated Deaths and Over-Represent Unvaccinated Deaths?

by Dr Clare Craig
1 March 2023 9:00 AM

The new ONS data on deaths by vaccination status seem to have a bias such that deaths in the unvaccinated are more likely to be included in the ONS sample, whereas deaths in the vaccinated have the opposite bias and are more likely to be excluded from this dataset. Oddly, the bias is different for Covid deaths. Differences with the accuracy of record matching could be enough to explain the bias.

The ONS data are based on only a sample of the population, albeit a large one. If the sample were representative we would find the mortality rates in the population included and excluded from the sample to be the same. But it turns out this is not the case.

For simplicity, going forward those excluded from the sample are referred to as the ‘ghost population’. Analysis which compares the mortality rates (per 100,000 people) between these groups shows a systematic bias.

Figure 1: Comparison of the make-up of the ONS sample and the ghost population compared to the vaccination database

For every age group, the mortality rate of unvaccinated people in the ghost population was lower than the ONS sample mortality rate, meaning the ONS sample over-represents deaths in the unvaccinated. Conversely, the mortality rate for the vaccinated ghost population was higher than the ONS sample for every age group except the over-80 year-olds, meaning the ONS sample under-represents deaths in the vaccinated under-80s.

For example, figure 2 shows the mortality rates in the 40-49 year-old population. Graphs for all age groups can be found here.

Figure 2: Graph of mortality rates in ONS sample and ghost population for 40-49 year olds

Many people have claimed that it is invalid to use the vaccination database (NIMS) as a measure of the whole population because it may contain duplicate records such that the population is overestimated. If that were the case, then the mortality rate in the vaccinated ghost population will have been artificially lowered by exaggerating the size of the vaccinated population. This would show up as a persistently lower than expected mortality rate in the vaccinated ghost population.

However, the mortality rate for the ONS sample and the ghost population (those excluded from the ONS sample) converge in later months to the same figure for the 18-39 year old group (see figure 3 below) indicating that all four populations are in fact comparable, and the vaccinated ghost population (and thus the vaccine database population) is not overestimated. A bias in population size could not disappear for a period of time whereas a bias due to misclassification of records may well vary over time.

Figure 3: Graph of mortality rates in ONS sample and ghost population for 18-39 year olds showing a converging mortality rate at the end of 2022

The bias between the mortality in the ONS sample and in the ghost population suggests that deaths in the vaccinated have been disproportionately excluded from the ONS data, while deaths in the unvaccinated were disproportionately included.

Figure 4: Total annual all cause mortality for 2022 per 100,000 people aged 50-59 years comparing ONS sample to ghost population

Data for deaths with Covid show a totally different bias. For Covid deaths, the mortality rate is substantially lower in the ghost population regardless of vaccination status, meaning the ONS sample over-represents Covid deaths for both vaccinated and unvaccinated. There are two important implications of this. Firstly, any kind of human bias in how data were assigned is unlikely to have resulted in a bias one way for all cause deaths and the opposite way for Covid death. Secondly, there must be something different about how all-cause and Covid deaths are being recorded that results in this opposite bias depending on the cause of death.

Figure 5: Total annual covid mortality for 2022 per 100,000 people aged 50-59 years comparing ONS sample to ghost population

One major difference between Covid deaths and all-cause deaths is the proportion that occur in hospital, which is 44% for Covid vs 71% for all-cause. The ONS has previously said that 94.6% of its ONS records match to the NHS database.

If we make the simple assumption that a higher proportion of death certificates for in-hospital deaths are correctly matched to an NHS number and vaccination status than for deaths outside hospital, we can recreate this bias. In fact, even an assumption of 95% matching for hospital deaths and 94% for deaths outside of hospital is a sufficient difference to create most of these biases. The only oddity that could not be replicated in this way was having a significantly higher vaccinated mortality rate than unvaccinated mortality rate in the excluded ghost population.

The ONS recorded anyone as unvaccinated if they did not match to a vaccine record. That means there will be a risk of vaccinated deaths being wrongly classified as unvaccinated if their vaccine record is missing, which would artificially increase the unvaccinated mortality rate and decrease the vaccinated mortality rate. While this effect may be small in the large vaccinated cohort, it may make a significant impact in the small unvaccinated cohort.

If we take a hypothetical population with identical mortality rates for the ONS and ghost populations, then the discrepant mortality rates seen above can be largely created simply by having a higher failed match-rate to the vaccine database for in-hospital deaths compared to other deaths. The ranking of mortality rates is shown in table 1. Even only a minimal difference in matching has this effect.

Table 1: Ranking of mortality rates by cohort

Whatever the cause of the bias, it requires thorough investigation in order for people to be properly informed about the effectiveness of the Covid vaccines. As it stands, the ONS dataset exaggerates deaths in the unvaccinated and underplays deaths in the vaccinated.

Dr. Clare Craig is a diagnostic pathologist and Co-Chair of the HART group. This article was first published by HART.

Tags: Covid deathsCOVID-19Excess deathsONSVaccine

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

mRNA Vaccines Contain DNA That May Turn Human Cells Into Long-Term Spike Protein Factories – Study

Next Post

Prince Harry “Hated Woke Nonsense” and “Made Jokes We Are No Longer Allowed to Make” before Meeting Meghan, Says Eton Classmate

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

48 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

The Sceptic | Episode 40: Rob Bates on Stopping Britain Becoming Majority-Minority, Tilak Doshi on Trump vs Green Blob and Mario Trabucco on Osborne’s Elgin Marbles Betrayal

by Richard Eldred
13 June 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

13 June 2025
by Richard Eldred

The Great Climate Science Swindle Goes On

12 June 2025
by Chris Morrison

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

Is Xi Jinping About to Be Pushed Out?

12 June 2025
by Will Jones

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

38

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

15

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

46

News Round-Up

12

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

8

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Woke Waste Has Become Even Worse Under Labour

13 June 2025
by Charlotte Gill

I’ll Take the High Road

12 June 2025
by Dr James Allan

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

12 June 2025
by Dr Elizabeth Evans

Importing Even More Nurses Won’t Fix the NHS

12 June 2025
by Dr Roger Watson

POSTS BY DATE

March 2023
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
« Feb   Apr »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

March 2023
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
2728293031  
« Feb   Apr »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

13 June 2025
by Richard Eldred

The Great Climate Science Swindle Goes On

12 June 2025
by Chris Morrison

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

13 June 2025
by Will Jones

Is Xi Jinping About to Be Pushed Out?

12 June 2025
by Will Jones

Israel and Iran Are Now at War

38

Watch: Labour Minister Makes False Claim on BBC Question Time That Most Small Boat Migrants are Women and Children – With No Correction From BBC

15

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

46

News Round-Up

12

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

8

As a Civil Servant, I Can Tell You Dissent From DEI Dogma is Not Allowed

13 June 2025
by Anonymous Civil Servant

Woke Waste Has Become Even Worse Under Labour

13 June 2025
by Charlotte Gill

I’ll Take the High Road

12 June 2025
by Dr James Allan

Abortion Up to Birth by the Back Door

12 June 2025
by Dr Elizabeth Evans

Importing Even More Nurses Won’t Fix the NHS

12 June 2025
by Dr Roger Watson

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment