My colleague, the brilliant Professor Christof Kuhbandner, sent me an e-mail about an update to his pre-print analysing excess deaths and stillbirths in Germany from 2020 to 2022, co-authored with Professor Matthias Reitzner. This is the most thoughtful and carefully done analysis of excess deaths during the pandemic that I’ve seen. With his permission, I reprint his e-mail summary below and embed the full document at the bottom.
First of all, it is interesting to look at the excess mortality per year depending on the age group; here is the corresponding result figure:
It had already become apparent for 2021 that an excess mortality is observed particularly in the middle age groups. This trend has continued in 2022: now a high excess mortality is already being observed in the 15-29 age groups. There – on average across all months in 2022 – almost 10% more deaths than expected occurred.
The next thing that is striking is the course of excess mortality within the years depending on the age group. Here is the corresponding result figure (red areas are excess mortality, green areas are mortality deficit):
There are several notable observations here.
It is initially interesting to look at the excess mortality from November 2020 to March 2021, when there was a strong Covid wave at the turn of the year. On the one hand, there is a strong age dependency: the older the people, the higher the excess mortality, and there is absolutely nothing to be seen in the age groups under 30. On the other hand, you can see a typical pull-forward effect: the phase of excess mortality is followed by a phase of a mortality deficit in all affected age groups, i.e., the Covid wave hit many people who would have died within the next few moths anyway. In other words, the excess mortality phase is balanced out by a subsequent phase of a mortality deficit, meaning that cumulatively there is hardly any excess mortality at the start of the vaccination campaign at the end of March 2021.
This pattern changes from April 2021 onwards – the start of the vaccination campaign. Suddenly, an excess mortality appears that is no longer dependent on age, and which is no longer compensated for by subsequent phases of a mortality deficit. This is particularly evident in the younger age groups. Up to the time of the vaccination campaign, for example, there was no excess mortality in the 15-29 age group. But since vaccination started in this age group, suddenly more 15-29 year olds are dying than expected. There are hardly any phases of a mortality deficit anymore, and excess mortality is rising and rising. In December 2022, 22.5% more people died in this age group than expected – an age group in which nobody normally dies so easily. A similar pattern is found in the 30-49 age group and the 60-79 age group. And even in the 80-plus age group, where initially phases of excess mortality were always offset by subsequent phases of a mortality deficit, this changed in 2022. There, too, a worrying steady increase until the end of December 2022 is observed.
The course of stillbirths is also striking. We have analysed stillbirths based on the data we received from the Federal Statistical Office of Germany. Here is the corresponding results figure:
The upper panel shows the course of live births and the panel below the course of stillbirths since 2019 (the diagnosis of stillbirths was changed in Germany at the end of 2018 so that the numbers before 2019 are not comparable).
The already-known massive decrease in the number of live births in the first quarter of 2022 – exactly nine months after the start of the vaccination campaign – can be seen impressively. The data on live births are now available from the Federal Statistical Office up to the end of October 2022, and contrary to what one might have hoped, this is not just a short-term decrease in the number of births. In the third quarter of 2022, 14 500 fewer children were born alive than on average in the previous years 2019-2021.
A different picture emerges for stillbirths. Until the end of the first quarter of 2021, the trend since 2019 has been very stable, similar to that of live births. A sudden increase is then observed in the second quarter of 2021, and the number of stillbirths is also higher in the third and fourth quarters than in previous years. That is, before the number of live births decreases at the beginning of 2022, the number of stillbirths increases in the previous quarters.
Since the number of stillbirths depends on the number of pregnancies, to assess the increase of stillbirths one has to relate the number of stillbirths to the number of live births. It is important to note that in women who became pregnant at the same time, stillbirths occur about a quarter earlier than live births. This can be seen in the figure above, where the seasonal peaks in stillbirths occur a quarter earlier than in live births. In order to estimate the proportion of pregnant women who have lost their child, the stillbirths in one quarter must be related to the number of live births in the following quarter. The third panel in the graph above shows the estimated proportion of pregnant women who lost their child (number of stillbirths per 1,000 total births).
As can be seen, there is no major change until the first quarter of 2021, apart from the usual seasonal variation. In the second quarter of 2021, the proportion of stillbirths suddenly increased by 9.4% compared to the average of the two previous years; in the fourth quarter of 2021 the proportion of stillbirths is 19.6% higher than in the previous two years. This is illustrated in the bottom panel of the figure above.
In summary, the following picture emerges: From the beginning of April 2021 onwards – the start of the vaccination campaign – excess mortality suddenly increases continuously up to the youngest age groups and is no longer compensated by phases of a mortality deficit. That is, unlike before, the observed excess mortality no longer represents a pull-forward effect where the highly vulnerable people die some months earlier than expected. In addition, the number of stillbirths is increasing at the same time. Nine months later, a massive and sustained decrease in live births is observed.
As an analysis of the course of excess mortality and Covid deaths shows, this cannot be explained by Covid deaths. Here is the corresponding results figure:
From February 2021 onwards, the excess mortality curve decouples from the Covid deaths curve. Despite a phase of a significant mortality deficit, a high number of so-called ‘Covid deaths’ are still being reported, which raises great doubts about the validity of the ‘Covid death’ diagnosis. Apparently, this diagnosis was often used for deaths that would have died at the same time regardless of Covid. From September 2021 onwards, excess mortality starts to be higher than the number of Covid deaths, and in 2022 excess mortality went through the roof while the number of Covid deaths progressively decreased.
The parallel between the excess mortality curve and the vaccination curve is striking. Here is the corresponding results figure:
Excess mortality is increasing in parallel with the increase in the number of first vaccinations. Exactly as the number of first vaccinations decreases, excess mortality also begins to decrease, but not as much as the first vaccinations, perhaps because the number of second vaccinations increases at the same time. And exactly with the peak of the second vaccinations, excess mortality also reaches its peak, only to then decrease exactly parallel to the second vaccinations. With the start of the third vaccinations, there is a parallel increase in excess mortality, and exactly as the third vaccinations decrease, the excess mortality also decreases.
Of course, correlation does not have to mean causation. But exactly such a pattern would be expected if vaccination as an adverse side-effect increases the number of unexpected deaths. And meanwhile, it can also be regarded as clearly documented that the vaccinations definitely lead to unexpected deaths. In particular, the existing findings suggest – but unfortunately there are still no epidemiologically valid data on this – that the number of unexpected vaccination-related deaths is definitely high. In our paper, we refer to the peer-reviewed findings of the renowned Heidelberg pathologist Peter Schirmacher. Here is the summary from our paper:
For instance, in a study of a research team led by Peter Schirmacher, out of 35 bodies found unexpectedly dead at home with unclear causes of deaths within 20 days following Covid-vaccination, autopsies revealed causes of death due to pre-existing illnesses in only 10 cases. From the remaining 25 cases, in three cases it was concluded from the autopsies that vaccination-induced myocarditis was the likely cause of death, and in two cases it was concluded that this was possibly the case. According to Supplementary Table 1, vaccination was the cause of deaths in further cases as well. For instance, a 38-year-old man with no relevant preexisting disease died due to vaccine-induced thrombotic thrombocytopenia; a 23-year- old woman with no relevant preexisting disease died due to pulmonary embolism, which may also suggest vaccination as the cause of death.
These findings indicate two important aspects. First, the findings show that Covid vaccinations can cause deaths as a side-effect. Second, the findings show that deadly side-effects of Covid vaccinations are not extreme exceptional cases. The authors of the paper correctly conclude that epidemiological conclusions in terms of incidence or risk estimation cannot be validly drawn from their study. However, the fact that the re-examination of only 35 deaths of only one specific type (bodies found unexpectedly dead at home) in only a small region in Germany (catchment area of the Heidelberg University Hospital) already reveals so many deaths that have likely or probably been caused by a Covid vaccination at least suggests that Covid vaccine-induced deaths are not extremely unlikely.
Here is the full paper, which can also be accessed on ResearchGate.
Dr. Josh Guetzkow is Senior Lecturer in Criminology and Sociology at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem. This article first appeared on his Substack page Jackanapes Junction, which you can subscribe to here. Dr. Christof Kuhbandner is Professor of Psychology at the University of Regensburg. Dr. Matthias Reitzner is a Professor in the Institute for Mathematics at Osnabrück University.
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Need to read the full paper, but the excess mortality age profile in England and Wales seems very similar.
Here is my chart of the 4 week running average of the percentage excess deaths by 5 year age band since the beginning of 2020 relative to the 2015-2019 average for England and Wales. I’ve truncated the excess Spring 2020 and January 2021 peaks so that excesses for the recent period can be seen.
The excess percentages are after adjusting for population in each age band in each year based on mid-year population estimates (the 5 year average is adjusted for the average population between 2015 and 2019). As these are narrow age bands we are therefore taking out most of the effect of population increase and an ageing population.
The solid lines as you can see represent the oldest age groups, the dashed lines the middle age groups and the dotted lines the younger age groups.The individual lines are hard to see but look at the patterns.
I’ll only mention the period from 2022 but the period before then is also interesting.
The % excess deaths has been running high (positive excess) in all age groups in the second half of 2022 and running high in 2023 in all age groups barring the youngest age groups below age 25. There was negative excess in the first half of 2022 in the oldest age groups (due to the lack of ‘dry timber’ effect?) which made 2022 look a reasonable year in terms of age standardised mortality. But that hides what is going on at different ages.
Note these excesses are despite the improving age specific mortality seen up to 2015-2019. The ONS in its population estimates still assume long term improvement in mortality of very roughly 1.2%pa (in all banded age groups) and so between 2015-2019 and 2022 for example you could argue for a further add on of around 6% to those excess percentages, to allow for these improvements that haven’t happened because of the disastrous pandemic response.
Now the Germany analysis is using a different baseline for excess mortality, but when you apply the ad hoc 6% adjustment above to the linked chart you do get a similar comparison by age between Germany and England and Wales.
And this is 2023 so far using the same population adjustment.
These percentages represent the final points on the previous chart, since there have been 4 weeks of death figures for 2023, and the previous chart is based on a 4 weekly average which therefore covers the first 4 weeks of 2023 in its final point.
And here is 2022 split by first half and second half.
Note excess mortality in every age group for the second half of 2022 (the blue bars are all positive). If you look at the lines on the first chart you can see how this that excess has occurred over those 6 months.
And for completeness the first chart without the truncation of the Spring 2020 peak
A handy round-up of excess deaths in many countries in John Campbell’s latest here. And what the heck is happening here in the Netherlands? At 37% excess deaths, we are second only to Germany, but not a dicky bird in the press here!
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xNT-YNLhprw&ab_channel=Dr.JohnCampbell
Investigate UK excess deaths not related to Covid. – Petitions (parliament.uk)
“A combination of factors has contributed to the number of excess deaths. The government is taking steps to address this and will announce further detail in the forthcoming Major Conditions Strategy.
Our analysis suggests that it is likely that a combination of factors has contributed to an increase in the number of non-Covid excess deaths in the latter part of 2022, including high flu prevalence and health conditions such as heart disease and diabetes.”
So more people than expected are dying because more people are dying of things that you die of… Wonder what the German government’s “explanation” would be.
Also looking forward to the “Major Conditions Strategy” – the UK govt has had such success with “Public Health” since 2020.
They’ve been using the ‘flu’ as an excuse here too, last time I read about excess deaths ( and what a timely comeback this particular virus has made..) but they had to admit many deaths’ causes were not known. If we’re still seeing these high levels of unexplained and non-investigated excess deaths once summer arrives I’ll be interested to hear their feeble excuses then.
Presumably the Gumby Brothers, Whitty and Vallance, can read?
Read, yes, and they read out loud quite well, too. But think?
I suspect the German and Dutch numbers are also pretty similar. There was excess/elevated mortality since March 2022, rising sharply from mid-November to end December. StatisticsNetherlands publishes mortality figures every week on Friday in an Excel file, these get incorporated in the NL corona dashboard every week in a line chart showing expected mortality – excess/elevation is very easy to see. For the first 3 weeks 2023, when there was high excess mortality, although declining from the end-December high, the numbers were MIA on the corona dashboard. They were only published again last week, when the line hit expected mortality. Media/twitter was starting to pay attention to the excess mortality, I suspect that’s why there was no update for 3 weeks.
The November/December excess is probably attributable (or in any event will be attributed) to an early flu season. This is one explanation, although considering there should be no dry timber left.. maybe it is simply the flu, exacerbated by the fact that people were not exposed to regular viruses for over 2 years, maybe exacerbated by an immune system worn out by repeated jabbing in the at-risk age group, who had received jab no. 5 from mid-September onward.
The fact that different countries show very similar trends should be seen as an indication of a common factor, i.e. the jabs. Perhaps greater attention should be paid to numbers from the US and a comparison of states. Different states had different mandates or none at all, some lifted them earlier than others. What is known is that some universities and health care industry in particular have retained mandates – this strikes me as a good area to focus on, as these will be primarily people under 60, so a group not at high risk of respiratory viruses in general. If these age groups show excess mortality in areas which still have mandates for these age groups, I think the correlation will be clearer. In NL they managed to get over 80% of the population between 18 and 60 to get a 3rd shot in period Nov 2021 – Jan 2022, but there was very little uptake in this age group for the 4th shot offered in September 2022. Most European countries have not jabbed this age group, so the differences with those areas of the US where they have still been stabbing this age group should be visible.
Are flu cases and deaths really higher throughout the world? I mean, the authorities say flu is the reason for the increase in excess deaths, but I haven’t seen the stats showing higher flu incidence (maybe I’ve already dismissed that as a cause so I haven’t been looking for the stats?).
The official story from the Dutch RIVM was that flu was doing the rounds in NL in Nov/Dec (don’t know about rest of world). We know that RSV has been unseasonal and the view is that viruses have been appearing at different times of year than normal due to corona disruption. I’m only repeating what I’ve read in that respect, I have no specific opinion on it.
As far as I know, this time of year going into March should be peak respiratory virus resulting in serious illness for at-risk groups and that does not (at present) seem to be reflected in mortality figures, so the argument could be correct. The real question, imo, is whether the mortality was so high simply because of a nasty flu, whether lack of exposure to viruses made it worse or if continued interference with the immune system through repeated vaxxing made things worse.
I’ve said before, perhaps too much attention has been focused on the vaxx as being an outright killer, as opposed to it’s mid- to long-term implications (ADE, IgG4 increase, immune suppression). If we assume that serious AEs and death directly due to vaxx occur within 6 months of the vaxx, this should be reflected in a higher level of AEs/deaths in under 60s between January and July 2022 in NL, as vaxx uptake in this age group has been very low since. Numbers this specific are not presented in the weekly data, although must exist somewhere and would shed more light on the matter.
I meet two friends this morning who had each lost a cousin this year after they had taken the jab. They were 58 & 62. That says more than any statistic.
It’s very important we meet and talk.
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Dr Vernon Coleman cried at the start of jab mania agreeing with Mike Yeadon that it would result in many deaths , he now thinks Nukes are gonna fly around Europe !!.. Could it be a possibility given that the Jab damage info is growing & they can’t row it back then TPTB,s Joker will be Nuclear War ????
The case seems poor to me. It is based on a correlation between vaccines and deaths and ignores all other factors.