Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has spawned Europe’s biggest refugee crisis since World War II. According to the United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, almost eight million Ukrainian refugees have been recorded in Europe and other neighbouring countries, with an additional 250,000 having left for North America.
Ukraine’s pre-war population (excluding Crimea) was estimated to be around 41 million, which means that almost one in five Ukrainians have left the country. An additional fraction of the population has been internally displaced.
Because men are banned from leaving, at least 85% of those who’ve fled are women. (Depending on how many eventually return, this could dramatically upset the country’s gender balance.)
Scanning the numbers of Ukrainian refugees recorded in different countries around the world, one figure stands out – the number recorded in Russia. According to the UNHCR, 2.85 million refugees are residing there, more than in any other country. Indeed, 2.85 million is almost 36% of the total number of Ukrainian refugees.
At first glance, the fact that such a large number of Ukrainians have fled to Russia would seem to support Putin’s claims about the persecution of ethnic Russians in eastern Ukraine. At the very least, it would seem to undermine the Western narrative that Ukrainians are united in wanting to join the West.
Indeed, 36% is similar to the proportion of Ukrainians who favoured joining the Russian-led Eurasian Customs Union, rather than the European Union, in polls taken before the ‘Revolution of Dignity’. For example, in September of 2013, 37% said they favoured the Eurasian Customs Union, versus 42% who said they favoured the EU.
Yet the number of refugees in Russia can’t be taken at face value. Western sources claim that many Ukrainians residing in Russia were sent there involuntarily. Last July, U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken stated that “Russian authorities have interrogated, detained, forcibly deported between 900,000 and 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens”.
This allegation was repeated by America’s ambassador to the UN, Linda Thomas-Greenfield. Russia dismissed it as a “fantasy”.
In her speech, the U.S. ambassador referred to evidence gathered by Human Rights Watch, the Organisation for Security and Cooperation in Europe and the Yale School of Public Health’s Humanitarian Research Lab – each of which has investigated allegations of forced deportations by Russian authorities. (The Associated Press has also looked into such allegations.)
The investigation by Human Rights Watch is the most extensive. They interviewed several dozen Ukrainians, and concluded that “most of the cases” they documented “amount to forcible transfers” and potentially, therefore, war crimes.
However, what’s not clear is how representative these cases are. The number of Ukrainians interviewed by HRW is a tiny percentage of 2.85 million, and the cases are unlikely to have been selected at random. This isn’t necessarily a failing of HRW; gathering reliable information on refugees is difficult, especially in the middle of a war.
Indeed, the organisation states that “the total number of Ukrainian civilians transferred to Russia – either voluntarily or involuntarily – remains unclear”. And to my knowledge, U.S. officials have not explained how they obtained the figure of “between 900,000 and 1.6 million” deported Ukrainians.
In September, the UN’s Assistant Secretary-General for Human Rights stated that “in the cases documented by the OHCHR” Ukrainians transferred to Russia “have had freedom of movement”. Which is consistent with HRW’s finding that “all 18 people” they interviewed who went to Russia subsequently left. (HRW interviewed 54 Ukrainians who either went to Russia, went through Russian ‘filtration’, knew people who went there, or helped people leave Russia; of these, 18 went to Russia.)
However, the Assistant Secretary-General did also refer to “credible allegations of forced transfers of unaccompanied children” – transfers that may involve illegal changes to children’s personal status, including nationality. Russia, again, denied these allegations.
While Ukrainians in Russia are “technically free to leave”, the Associated Press reports, many fear that “if they return, Ukraine will prosecute them for going to the enemy” – a fear that is “encouraged by Russian officials”. Others lack the money or documents needed to travel long distances.
Another point worth noting is that the figure of 2.85 million Ukrainian refugees in Russia may itself be inflated. This was the conclusion of the University of Texas Global Disinformation Lab, after they analysed satellite imagery of crossings at the Russia-Ukraine border.
At the present time, we don’t know how many Ukrainians were forcibly transferred to Russia. While there’s evidence that the number is greater than zero, very high estimates put forward by U.S. officials have not been independently verified.
Many of those sent to Russia involuntarily have been able to leave (albeit without any support from Russian authorities) which suggests the stock of Ukrainian refugees in Russia may comprise a large number of individuals who are residing there voluntarily. On the other hand, some may have stayed due to practical constraints.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
The oddest thing about Welby is his mixture of nihilism and atheism.
His true faith is Globalism.
So Catholic Peter Harris wants to replace Welby with a Catholic woman Helen Ann-Hartley, one of many Catholics subverting the Protestant Church of England, to drag everyone back into worshipping the Impostor Goddess of the Fake Virgin Birth and her Stolen Child, instead of Almighty God.
We know from the New Testament what St. Paul’s view of women preachers was, but modern politics easily sweeps that aside.
“Bishop” Helen Ann-Hartley and her fellow Bishop Martyn Snow were criticised by Reverend Dr. Thomas Woolford for promoting the church blessing of Sodomite Marriage, sodomy being the reason God destroyed the cities of Sodom and Gomorrah, for which the practice of sodomy was named. “Sodomy” is a very useful English word for unnatural sexual relations between males with males, females with females, and humans with animals. No need for all the confusing and ridiculous labels like LBGTQ-whatever, when the one English word “Sodomy” suffices for all.
Well I’ve no time for the organised church of any and all persuasion.
They’re nothing but parasites, sucking at the teat of the poor, living in palaces decorated with the greatest works of art and preaching poverty.
Here’s the Marxist Pope praying before his new Vatican Nativity Set, featuring Stolen Baby E-zus lying on a MUSLIM PALESTINIAN SCARF!
Vatican Nativity Scene Features Baby Jesus on Palestinian Scarf
My god what a horror show.
Shame!
What am appalling bell-end he is.
Not called Justin for nothing.
I do think the name ‘Justin Isobel End’ does have a certain refined ring to it.
Let’s hope that whoever becomes his successor understand the following: Past injustices can’t be remedied by committing present-day injustices. The duty of the church is to its congregations and to the cultural heritage which is part of itself. It’s not to people who nowadays demand money for something which never even affected, let alone harmed them. Sins of dead people and what – if anything – is to be done about them belong to realm of God and not man. So, take care of your present-day duties, that is, don’t be so injust to punish, if only indirectly, church members of today for supposed sins of people who died long before their birth. Let God deal with what is rightfully his own and tell the reparation spongers to go pester someone else for spare millions.
The photographer clearly caught up with him at the weekend.
Basically, yet another entitled, out of touch, member of the establishment, blinded by his own vanity but still considers himself to be some form of egalitarian expert.
If Hartley is raised to the Canterbury See,
That will be the end of the CofE!
As a practicing Christian. For some time I’ve thought of Welby as Satan’s acolyte.
I wonder why so many old Etonians – that most Establishment of Establishment educational institutions in the UK – seem to be implementing a mission to destroy the public’s respect for ALL our ancient governmental Institutions?
When you look at the list of those who are responsible for the clusterfcuk the UK has become, it is noticeable how many went to that school.
A loathsome character. He probably feels misunderstood and unfairly treated. Let him crawl under a rock.
Welby is just the current symbol behind the fact that religions and their institutions are the problem. Whoever replaces him, more abuses will occur and we’ll be reading about them in the future & how those in charge chose to protect the organisation’s survival and reputation over the safety and well being of the public.
Just like mosques.
I did say religions.