In a previous article I introduced the concept of looking at mortality from non-respiratory causes (i.e., not deaths from flu, Covid or other similar pathogens) as a better indicator of core mortality changes in the U.K. population than either excess deaths alone (or even excess non-Covid deaths). This is because most of the variation in the number of deaths between winter and summer and from year to year are due to respiratory causes; thus, take those out and you get a clearer picture of the underlying health of the population and whether people are generally getting sick and dying more or less than in recent years from causes such as cardiovascular problems, cancer, Alzheimer’s and so on.
I decided to go back and re-analyse the data in order to see how excess non-respiratory mortality has accumulated over the last few years. I discovered that this showed a total for 2021, 2022 and 2023 (thus far) of 49,696 deaths. When one takes into account the mortality displacement for this time period (owing to the pandemic bringing expected deaths forward; explained here), which I estimate as 23,650 deaths, the non-respiratory excess mortality reaches 73,346 deaths.
Comparing this to the number of deaths due to Covid (as underlying cause) over the same time period, which total 89,629 deaths, we see that the Covid figure is just 16,283 or 22% higher. Bearing in mind that it is widely acknowledged that there has been overcounting of Covid deaths (and thus conversely undercounting of non-respiratory deaths), the two tallies are now broadly similar, and thus an emergency situation at least as dangerous as the pandemic itself has arisen, which must surely now be addressed by the authorities.
To highlight the overcounting of Covid deaths, one only need compare the data for ‘deaths due to’ against ‘deaths with’ for COVID-19, and contrast it with the figures for other respiratory diseases. For Covid around 82% of deaths ‘with Covid’ are claimed to be ‘due to’ Covid over the course of the pandemic, yet with all other respiratory diseases only 34% of deaths ‘with’ the disease are claimed to be ‘due to’ it. The reason for the considerable discrepancy is unclear and suggests Covid is being significantly over-attributed as underlying cause.
For this article I calculated the number of excess non-respiratory deaths (relative to 2015-2019 pre-Covid averages) for each week of the year, and then calculated the cumulative values over the course of a full year. These charts confirm the suitability of the concept of non-respiratory mortality to serve as a stable core mortality rate that does not normally vary significantly from year to year. This is because there is a clear tendency (pre-Covid) for the cumulative non-respiratory mortality values to tend back to zero (i.e., the x-axis) if there has been a period of abnormal positive or negative values for an extended time. This indicates the role of mortality displacement in causing overall deaths to even out over time.
In fact, even in 2020 the shape of the curve (orange) looks very similar to the pre-Covid curves, excepting for the sudden spike at the beginning of the first wave of the pandemic when chaotic counting was arguably occurring. Without this the curve would hug the x-axis pretty much all through the year.
When we look at the curves for 2021, 2022 and 2023, however, the pattern changes radically. From week 18 in the spring of 2021 onwards the curve begins to point only upwards, and it further accelerates from the spring of 2022 and once again in the early part of 2023.
Please note all these curves are generated from the raw data from the ONS weekly reports for England and Wales. They are not adjusted for mortality displacement or anything else.
Putting all these curves together on one chart illustrates the changing pattern over the course of the pandemic, and in particular the striking upward turn in the spring of 2021.
Note that there appears to be little evidence of any need for an age-standardised adjustment to prevent an upward drift in death rates owing to an ageing population. Even after six years from the beginning of 2015 through to the end of 2020, the cumulative non-respiratory mortality is still around the zero mark, and even dips a little below in the first three months of 2021 (remember this is mortality with the respiratory deaths including Covid taken out).
Recent articles from Dr. Noah Carl have questioned whether mortality was unusually high in 2022 because, when the figures are adjusted for an ageing population using the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), excess deaths come out low. The ASMR is a hypothetical construct that is used to adjust crude mortality data for changes in the age structure of a population. It relies on a standardised population model that provides the weightings in the population of different age groups. This is a very useful model that can make sense of changing mortality rates over time when studying the demography of a population.
However, I would argue that it is not a useful model during times of exceptional change, as it relies on assumptions of weightings that change only incrementally over time and doesn’t take into account when a large number of deaths occur unexpectedly in older age groups. During the Covid pandemic there have been nearly 200,000 excess deaths (relative to the 2015-2019 average), and these are largely concentrated in the oldest age groups, i.e., the groups that provide the bulk of ‘normal’ mortality.
In particular, the over-80 age group comprises just 4.6% of the U.K. population yet delivers almost 60% of deaths in a normal year. As the U.K. population is roughly 67 million people, this puts the over-80s at about three million persons. The occurrence of 200,000 excess deaths in this age group implies a drop in the ‘weighting’ of this age group in the age make-up of the population of some 6.5%.
As the mortality in the U.K. in recent times has averaged about 600,000 deaths per year, a 6.5% adjustment in 60% of them would represent about 24,000 fewer deaths to be expected in 2022 than standardised models would predict, counteracting the ASMR expectation that the number of deaths should rise owing to an ageing population. 2022 has, however, seen something of a record year in overall mortality figures.
This is why, instead of looking at a misleading age-standardised mortality rate, we get a much better picture of what’s going on if we look at non-respiratory mortality as a measure of ‘core’ mortality, taking out the highly variable respiratory deaths. It’s worth noting here that it’s possible that the reason ‘core’ non-respiratory mortality has remained stable over recent years rather than rising as the age-standardised model would predict is because stronger winter flu seasons such as 2017-18 have naturally counteracted the effect of ageing on ‘core’ mortality.
The actuarial profession certainly seems to agree that there is a negative trend in underlying life expectancy based on what has been happening in 2022.
The upshot of this analysis of non-respiratory mortality is that something extraordinary has been occurring in the trends in core mortality since spring 2021, notably around the time of the Covid vaccination rollout. This worrying trend is currently accelerating and requires an urgent inquiry into whether the vaccinations themselves are playing a part or, if not, what is going on.
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1) Vaccine damage?
2) VAIDS?
Plus damage to immune system and multiple other aspects of physical health by both prolonged fear and restrictions
German TV presenter rolls eyes, becomes incoherent in mid-sentence and collapses on camera .
Anchor : “Let’s move on to the next item”
Stop taking the boosters guys. Not working…some expert docs calling effects of vaxx “immune erosion”..vaccine induced immune deficiency syndrome.you won’t even be able to mount a response for the common cold, and other mild illnesses. Please reconsider taking the boosters until all the trials are finished and all the safety data is in.
Demographics is destiny. Note the ageing population, and the quite startling excess of females from 25+. I’d go ahead and infer this is due to go-getting – and healthy – males emigrating, leaving behind… well, what gets left behind.
c.f. Scotchland, both demographically and genetically.
The female surplus is likely because of maids, cleaners etc from elsewhere in Asia.
Or it could be males turning into females
Gender fluidity makes this graph un-inclusive, I’m going to raise this in the High Court (Twitter).
Who can tell?
If it will get me a job, I’m prepared to identify as an iguana…
Hmm, fair point, thanks for pointing it out.
I’ll stick with “They old!” then. Given our own parlous fertility rates, that’s our not-too-distant future right there.
I wonder if the people in hospitals – soon to disappear? – might have an over-abundance of ‘freedom protesters’?
If you take away the hospitals, technically there’s no overflow. Problem solved.
That was what the NHS did during the last year or so. It’s good to think that the Chinese are still learning from us….
And I believe that the teachers are experimenting with this technique for solving the education crisis…
Yes, I suspect they are especially vulnerable to the new virus.
This, my friends, is the ‘benefit’ of the CCP!
It comes as the city reported 1,619 new cases on Tuesday, according to official data, plus around 5,400 preliminary positive infections. This is on top of 2,071 new cases on Monday – the highest daily count since the pandemic began.
Two thousand daily cases a day in a population of 8 million is small compared to rates in other countries, especially the UK.
Good job they are not in the midst of a Hong Kong flu pandemic.
Are we really going to believe anything being reported about HK?
The CCP need a compliant population there how they achieve it will not be publicised.
Indeed, this has a strong feel of those early images of Wuhanese dropping dead in the streets.
Does the style guide at the Telegraph specify punishment of death if the words “omicron variant” are not preceded by “highly contagious” in all copy?
His real name is Stephen Yaxley Lennon you know
and his address is …….
I didn’t get that at first, I must be getting old or still recovering from a good night out in the pub.
– Beowulf (real name Olaf Skullsplitter).
Yeah the point is that, just like the TR stuff, the phrasing around covid is centralized, it is imposed from outside newsrooms. There are NUJ edicts, but it’s likely these reflect “Trusted News Initiative” messaging. None of this is news, it’s brainwashing. MK Ultra.
No, just a fine from their World Health Sponsor ( we know who!)
No videos of people dropping dead in the street? I miss the glory days of February 2020. They’ve become very lazy with the propaganda.
Much easier to use drones
Answer. They both lie. The CCP and the Global Health team at the Telegraph.
Have the ‘Global Health Team’ taken over and fully occupied the Telegraph yet , or are there still pockets of resistance?
I wouldn’t know, as I have cancelled my subscription.
Telegraph is confused. They run comments and articles that have a place on this site. But their Gates funded team sticks to the script.
Use Bypass Paywalls with Firefox and you can get most publications around the world.
It used to be said “Never trust what you read in the newspapers”. Add to that anything which has a CCP source or linked to Gates, or both, and you’re in a land of fantasy or brainwashing; or perhaps both of those, too.
There is clearly a major outbreak of respiratory disease – it’s a virus called ‘masking’.
‘Masking’ will certainly worsen any respiratory disease a person might have!
I expect Pfizer will be working on a “Masker Respiratory Syndrome Vaccine ” to deal with it. ( 6 doses a year)
People with breathing difficulties, ie, serious COVID, are certainly not going to wear them. But patients rolled out to have some fresh air (the Hong Kong idea of fresh air at least — normal humidity there is like the situation immediatley before a thunderstorm in Europe) and sunshine well might.
If they are in hospital because they have breathing difficulties, why are they wearing face coverings, which will simply make it worse? Some of them have masks and face shields.
Helps reduce their oxygen intake and makes them worse…..then they can go on a ‘plan’ as soon as the Midazolam arrives!
Hong Kong is having a number done on it by China. SCMP is reporting this wave could last 5 months according to “medical experts”, so the HKers who can are trying to escape into Shenzhen. Presumably they’re not being told it’s just a cold- a brief Google suggests that confirmed cases are reported as being in hospital. HK remembers the original SARS very well and there is probably a high level of genuine concern, into which has been seeded a great deal of panic. If every positive case is being taken into hospital regardless of severity, that could indicate why the hospitals are struggling.
But also- I lived in China for a bit, and you went to the hospital for everything- if you needed antibiotics, if you needed vitamin C, if you were a bit tired… They don’t have GPs, and hospitals are not just for the seriously ill. They all look like the photos above. I never went to a hospital in HK but I wouldn’t be surprised if they look like those photos most of the time as well. British hospitals typically do, in a flu season.
Wouldn’t escaping from HK to Shenzhen be as difficult as escaping from East Germany to West Germany during the Cold War?
HK’s border with mainland China is sealed shut: in fact one of the main justifications HK has for pursuing a zero-covid policy in the first place is to persuade mainland China that it’s safe to reopen that border!
Global Health Security have a consistent message in their propaganda section of the DT.
Which is “Its not over, panic, get another vaccine shot or we’re all going to die”
Its pretty tedious
The DT is now a disgrace to free and honest investigative journalism – a sad loss, ruined by Globalist ownership and interference and cowardly Editors.
Neither the government of HK nor that of China would ever lie or distort the truth
Do we know which ‘vaccine’ has been given to its population? Is it mRNA? (I’m assuming it is – and this may explain why we’re not seeing the same thing play out in China).
This seem impossible to establish for certain.
It is from:
And definitely not from an injected experimental gene therapeutic that induces spike proteins to attach to ACE-2 receptors causing inflammation and cellular destruction.
It’s winter. It’s a seasonal virus. This doesn’t appear to have registered with world ‘leaders’.
Here are the figures from S Korea. Repressive masking mandates. Unvaxxed not allowed in bars or restaurants. Mandatory quarantine for everyone entering the country. Massive Vax uptake. Guess what? None of it works!
https://en.yna.co.kr/view/AEN20220215002653320
At this time of the years, it’s decidedly T-shirt season in southern China. It may have been a bit like late March in the UK a month ago.
Hong Kong is actually tropical by the astronomical definition (it’s at 22.3 degrees North) even if its climate is a bit shy of tropical because of the strength of the Siberian High Pressure in winter.
My thoughts? Rearrange this anagram into a well known dismissive word. SLOBLOCK.
Hong Kong Hospitals? The New Prisons?
Are the force vaccinating the people ?
What is really going on?
Organ harvesting. You wake up dead.
I think you’ve made an error on Hong Kong’s Covid policy: the quarantine facilities are for contacts of the infected rather than the infected themselves.
Anyone who actually tests positive (regardless of symptoms) is automatically hospitalized, which may explain why they’re overflowing.
Another factor is that Hong Kong’s vaccination rate among the elderly (ie the very people most likely to die from Covid) is pitifully low: perhaps due to a combination of lack of desire to travel and trust in the government’s Zero Covid strategy?
Simple answer to this question: Just as everytime so far, the overflowing hospitals have been wished into existence by COVID propagandists attaching exaggerated claims to a normal situation and context-less photos people who aren’t familiar with the situation in Hong Kong can interpret properly.
As someone who has actually lived in Kwun Tong in the past (within walking distance of Ngau Tau Kok subway station), the first thing I note when seeing these photos is that they have an air of being unusually spacey and relaxed for local conditions. During day time, one will have serious problems finding locations with that few people in them there.
My first thought was that the hospitals must be overflowing with freedom loving folk who’ve had their heads bashed by Hong Kong cops.
Sometimes I’ve wondered if the West ought to do a population exchange with China: the West gets the pro-democracy Hong Kongers, while Hong Kong (which I guess due to its British colonial past would be more able than mainland China to absorb immigrants who don’t speak Chinese) gets Western zero-coviders in exchange.
I’m generally unhappy about the idea of more mad mask lovers coming here and expecting us to integrate into their culture but exporting zero-coviders to Hong Kong for some time could be a good idea. They’d be in for a nasty culture shock upon discovering that Chinese people are not geneticallly lactose-intolerant.
More staged photos ‘leaked’ to ‘the West’ to keep the fear going. An incentive for everyone to take the 4th jab.
Another possibility is that many of them could in fact just get up and go home. How many of these people are panicking on account of having a cold – maybe a nasty cold, but a cold – and think they’re dying? I’ve met a lot of such people here – where it’s known as ‘man flu’. Psychosoma. Some are serious, some are saps.
My son lives in HK and is going about his daily life as usual. There are many people out and about and 98% are wearing masks. Even the babies are westing masks although my son has refused a mask for his child.
No Hong Kongers are allowed to leave the island but this has been the case for many months. It seems to me there is propaganda at work again. My cousin in India was telling me last hear that UK was totally locked down as so many people were dying?????
Lies, lies and damn lies.
Isn’t it a shame Hong Kong will not use ivermectin and other repurposed drugs as early treatment?
Gates funded Global Health Security team? Nothing dodgy there then.
Isn’t it the case that anyone testing positive in HK is required to spend 21 days isolating in hospital, asymptomatic or not?
If so – and I believe it is so – then given that HK hospitals are always 90%+ occupied, it’s hardly surprising that the hospitals are overflowing.It didn’t matter much when “cases”were in the hundreds but it does now as the number has shot up.
The Telegraph’s global health security articles are not to be trusted in any shape or form. They’re basically a branch of the Gates Propaganda Department.
Is it also possible to compare within the vaccines? The Astrazeneca product is of a completely different type to Pfizer so it doesn’t seem quite right to lump them together in the statistics.