In a previous article I introduced the concept of looking at mortality from non-respiratory causes (i.e., not deaths from flu, Covid or other similar pathogens) as a better indicator of core mortality changes in the U.K. population than either excess deaths alone (or even excess non-Covid deaths). This is because most of the variation in the number of deaths between winter and summer and from year to year are due to respiratory causes; thus, take those out and you get a clearer picture of the underlying health of the population and whether people are generally getting sick and dying more or less than in recent years from causes such as cardiovascular problems, cancer, Alzheimer’s and so on.
I decided to go back and re-analyse the data in order to see how excess non-respiratory mortality has accumulated over the last few years. I discovered that this showed a total for 2021, 2022 and 2023 (thus far) of 49,696 deaths. When one takes into account the mortality displacement for this time period (owing to the pandemic bringing expected deaths forward; explained here), which I estimate as 23,650 deaths, the non-respiratory excess mortality reaches 73,346 deaths.
Comparing this to the number of deaths due to Covid (as underlying cause) over the same time period, which total 89,629 deaths, we see that the Covid figure is just 16,283 or 22% higher. Bearing in mind that it is widely acknowledged that there has been overcounting of Covid deaths (and thus conversely undercounting of non-respiratory deaths), the two tallies are now broadly similar, and thus an emergency situation at least as dangerous as the pandemic itself has arisen, which must surely now be addressed by the authorities.
To highlight the overcounting of Covid deaths, one only need compare the data for ‘deaths due to’ against ‘deaths with’ for COVID-19, and contrast it with the figures for other respiratory diseases. For Covid around 82% of deaths ‘with Covid’ are claimed to be ‘due to’ Covid over the course of the pandemic, yet with all other respiratory diseases only 34% of deaths ‘with’ the disease are claimed to be ‘due to’ it. The reason for the considerable discrepancy is unclear and suggests Covid is being significantly over-attributed as underlying cause.
For this article I calculated the number of excess non-respiratory deaths (relative to 2015-2019 pre-Covid averages) for each week of the year, and then calculated the cumulative values over the course of a full year. These charts confirm the suitability of the concept of non-respiratory mortality to serve as a stable core mortality rate that does not normally vary significantly from year to year. This is because there is a clear tendency (pre-Covid) for the cumulative non-respiratory mortality values to tend back to zero (i.e., the x-axis) if there has been a period of abnormal positive or negative values for an extended time. This indicates the role of mortality displacement in causing overall deaths to even out over time.
In fact, even in 2020 the shape of the curve (orange) looks very similar to the pre-Covid curves, excepting for the sudden spike at the beginning of the first wave of the pandemic when chaotic counting was arguably occurring. Without this the curve would hug the x-axis pretty much all through the year.
When we look at the curves for 2021, 2022 and 2023, however, the pattern changes radically. From week 18 in the spring of 2021 onwards the curve begins to point only upwards, and it further accelerates from the spring of 2022 and once again in the early part of 2023.
Please note all these curves are generated from the raw data from the ONS weekly reports for England and Wales. They are not adjusted for mortality displacement or anything else.
Putting all these curves together on one chart illustrates the changing pattern over the course of the pandemic, and in particular the striking upward turn in the spring of 2021.
Note that there appears to be little evidence of any need for an age-standardised adjustment to prevent an upward drift in death rates owing to an ageing population. Even after six years from the beginning of 2015 through to the end of 2020, the cumulative non-respiratory mortality is still around the zero mark, and even dips a little below in the first three months of 2021 (remember this is mortality with the respiratory deaths including Covid taken out).
Recent articles from Dr. Noah Carl have questioned whether mortality was unusually high in 2022 because, when the figures are adjusted for an ageing population using the age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR), excess deaths come out low. The ASMR is a hypothetical construct that is used to adjust crude mortality data for changes in the age structure of a population. It relies on a standardised population model that provides the weightings in the population of different age groups. This is a very useful model that can make sense of changing mortality rates over time when studying the demography of a population.
However, I would argue that it is not a useful model during times of exceptional change, as it relies on assumptions of weightings that change only incrementally over time and doesn’t take into account when a large number of deaths occur unexpectedly in older age groups. During the Covid pandemic there have been nearly 200,000 excess deaths (relative to the 2015-2019 average), and these are largely concentrated in the oldest age groups, i.e., the groups that provide the bulk of ‘normal’ mortality.
In particular, the over-80 age group comprises just 4.6% of the U.K. population yet delivers almost 60% of deaths in a normal year. As the U.K. population is roughly 67 million people, this puts the over-80s at about three million persons. The occurrence of 200,000 excess deaths in this age group implies a drop in the ‘weighting’ of this age group in the age make-up of the population of some 6.5%.
As the mortality in the U.K. in recent times has averaged about 600,000 deaths per year, a 6.5% adjustment in 60% of them would represent about 24,000 fewer deaths to be expected in 2022 than standardised models would predict, counteracting the ASMR expectation that the number of deaths should rise owing to an ageing population. 2022 has, however, seen something of a record year in overall mortality figures.
This is why, instead of looking at a misleading age-standardised mortality rate, we get a much better picture of what’s going on if we look at non-respiratory mortality as a measure of ‘core’ mortality, taking out the highly variable respiratory deaths. It’s worth noting here that it’s possible that the reason ‘core’ non-respiratory mortality has remained stable over recent years rather than rising as the age-standardised model would predict is because stronger winter flu seasons such as 2017-18 have naturally counteracted the effect of ageing on ‘core’ mortality.
The actuarial profession certainly seems to agree that there is a negative trend in underlying life expectancy based on what has been happening in 2022.
The upshot of this analysis of non-respiratory mortality is that something extraordinary has been occurring in the trends in core mortality since spring 2021, notably around the time of the Covid vaccination rollout. This worrying trend is currently accelerating and requires an urgent inquiry into whether the vaccinations themselves are playing a part or, if not, what is going on.
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If Covid was already in circulation over the winter of 2019/20 as we are now pretty sure it was, then how do we explain the sudden jump in NRM around week 13 (1st graph)? Is this the beginning of lockdown and discharging hospital patients into care homes and handing out the midazolam by any chance?
We’re guessing, but there could be a lot of psychological problems emerging from the policies pursued by the suspects in power. Maybe some elderly citizens decided that it wasn’t worth carrying on, for example.
Could be , added to that the DNR order , no postmortems ,no visitors in hospitals , what could possibly have been going on in plain sight , it’s so obvious ! Mike Yeadon & Dr Vernon Coleman were 100% correct about the Jabathon. Andrew Bridgen compared it to the 1940,s event by Germany that now can’t be mentioned , never mind compared we are seeing in real time a manifestation that will turn out to dwarf Adolph,s crimes against humanity …..
John Dee puts the spike at 15 weeks (2020), and has some thoughts on the cause.
https://jdee.substack.com/p/excess-deaths-by-cause-england-2020w1
Not pretty reading.
Little issue to begin with…
“…mortality displacement for this time period (owing to the pandemic bringing expected deaths forward; explained here)…”
I’d say Midazolam Matt, Lockdowns and emptying hospitals into nursing homes are to blame for that.
But hey, each to their own.
Of course ignored by the media.
Legacy journalism looks headed for oblivion
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/the-grim-future-of-establishment-journalism/
David James
Ignore the Media Presstitutes
Stand in the Park Make friends & keep sane
Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am
Elms Field
near Everyman Cinema & play area
Wokingham RG40 2FE
Massive piles of dead. 120 K I reckon in the UK thanks to Medical Nazism.
They are still piling up the dead and wounded from the Jags which means the effects of the quacksines are long term in nature (accident, by design?).
Not hard to figure out. Oh sorry, eggs, bacon, climate thingy, racism, transphobia wot doin’ it.
Just had an ironic thought after writing the name of a certain authoritarian country GERMANY ! Germ many , haha , how i laffed , NOT !
Thanks, the final graph couldn’t be any clearer. Let’s hope the actuaries are wrong and 2022 excess deaths turn out to be a temporary phenomenon. I’m not optimistic.
Has anyone any data on when the vaccinated can start to feel safe. Do we know, for instance, what is the time delay between vaccination (in my case AZ), booster (Pfizer once) and the onset of possible consequential illness.
Is there a definitive list of conditions one should watch out for.
‘…..an urgent inquiry into whether the vaccinations themselves are playing a part or, if not, what is going on.’
Spot on.
Anecdotally, both cardiac and cancer problems seem to be proliferating whereas problems from covid……nothing heard.
This doesn’t look good for the ‘democratic’ socialist fascist state….or its mouthpiece, the bbc……
The John Beaudoin analysis (thanks to Ebygum for alerting me to that) of all death certificates from Massachusetts tells us so much about the cause of excess deaths (starts from 13 minutes, the presentation itself starts from about 30 minutes but I’d suggest watching from 13 minutes)
https://rumble.com/v257tpw-john-beaudoin-exposes-truth-of-covid-deaths-from-medical-records-live.html
John Beaudoin got hold of all the death certificates from Massachussetts from 2015 up to August 2022. By working from that individual source level data he methodically identifies by looking at age banded data which causes of death have gone up between 2020 and 2021 and 2022.
I won’t try to summarise the results but it’s super revealing.
Here’s a screenshot (from 35 minutes 12 seconds in) which is relevant to the above article.
But that’s just an introductory slide before he goes into huge detail.
Entirely anecdotal and third hand, but I heard recently that a mortuary in the region has already reported 200 excess deaths a week for the 4 weeks of January 2023. In keeping with the data here.
’…an emergency situation at least as dangerous as the pandemic itself…’
i can’t let statements like thus go unchallenged. The emergency situation and danger was caused by Government policy not the virus.
You can cope with a few minor blood clots and if you’re strong you might be able to cope with a blockage in your femoral artery. But not for long. There was an early study done by Hoffe on the AZ vaccine and its recipients which found that post vaccination there was a study called d-dimer which indicated about 60 percent of recipents had blood-clotting issues in smaller blood vessels and that this is an accumulating and compunding process. Gven this pathway you will be lucky to have alive half of your contacts in five years time. All you can do is accept reality. Even if in five years time there was only one in ten of us left alive there would still be a small number of people demanding justice. So we never let up and never rely on anythihng.
It is horible. People that you know you start asking all sorts of questons like maybe they got placebo. I can tell you straight this is a bigger crime with potentially a bigger death toll than many of the wars of history combined along with the associated famines and that is before you even consider the effect on fertility. There will be no court of appeal instead you will be witness to the spectacle of war and not necessairly as a spectatot sport. At that point people will be so disoriented that they will have forgotten about the spike.That’s their hope and it is our job to make sure that it doesn’t become a reality.
“ This worrying trend is currently accelerating and requires an urgent inquiry into whether the vaccinations themselves are playing a part or, if not, what is going on.”
Dream on pal.