On Friday, I posted charts showing that excess mortality is negatively related to elderly vaccination in both Europe and the U.S. In other words: European countries and U.S. states with higher elderly vaccination rates have seen less excess mortality since the pandemic began.
I argued, therefore, that focussed protection culminating in voluntary vaccination of high-risk groups was the right strategy all along – which is what the Great Barrington Declaration called for.
One objection to my aggregate-level analysis is that the relationships between excess mortality and elderly vaccination could be confounded by other variables. In fact, the relationship in the European sample was much weaker when controlling for healthcare spending – which is evidence of confounding.
On the other hand, with a sample size of only 30 countries, it is not always possible to disentangle the effects of correlated predictors. And in the larger American sample, the relationship remained strong when controlling for healthcare spending.
Another way to test whether elderly vaccination made a difference is to check which is a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021: excess mortality in 2020, or the elderly vaccination rate. (The vaccines became available at the end of 2020, so will not have had an impact until 2021).
It’s possible that some places are simply better at preventing Covid deaths – whether because their populations are healthier, they provide higher quality healthcare, or some combination of factors. If so, you’d expect to see a strong relationship between excess mortality in 2020 and excess mortality in 2021 – even when controlling for the elderly vaccination rate.
On the other hand, if elderly vaccination is what matters, you’d expect to see a strong relationship between the elderly vaccination rate and excess mortality in 2021 – even when controlling for excess mortality in 2020.
To put it another way: if some places are simply better at preventing Covid deaths than others, excess mortality in 2020 should be a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021; but if elderly vaccination matters is what matters, the elderly vaccination rate should be stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021.
I ran the numbers, and found that in both samples the elderly vaccination rate was a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021. So the places that had lowest excess mortality in 2021 weren’t necessarily the places that had lowest excess mortality in 2020; rather, they were the places that had the highest elderly vaccination rates.
This constitutes additional evidence that vaccinating the elderly saved lives. All the caveats in my original post still apply.
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Farcical.
Stabbinating old people who died en masse post the Stabs along with tens of thousands of others of different age groups ‘saved lives’.
Flock off.
100.000 dead post the dartinations, over a 1/3 were wrinklies. 20.000 died over 2 years from and only from Rona.
Explain to me all the dead oldies in care homes and the death services around the world, can start here or in Oz land
https://www.coronavirus.vic.gov.au/additional-covid-19-case-data
All stabbed. All stabbed. All stabbed. Say again how many lives ‘were saved’?
My concern with the data would be that western nations in particular where either accidentally or deliberately (delete as appropriate) using the wrong treatments for covid. The use of ventilators whilst doing everything possible not to use anti-inflamitries, HCQ/Ivermectin and vitamins has muddied the waters to say the least. Then you have the suspicious treatment of vulnerable care home residents – let’s not forget that Illinois senior health advisor that moved her mother out of a care home at the start of the pandemic – do not tell me they didn’t know something!
How do you separate genuine Covid excess deaths from those who where either misdiagnosed, died of neglect/negligence with a positive test or simply received the wrong treatment.
I followed the saga of a friend’s in-laws last year. They got covid from a Christmas party, they were sick, then more sick, then the FIL went into the hospital. I told her not to let them put him on a ventilator, which I guess was/is the standard treatment. He died right before Christmas. Merry Christmas, kids, say goodbye to grandpa! As John Campbell often points out, all these death stats are made up of individuals. Have hospitals changed their protocols since then?
Indeed. You make valid points and these are things we talk about on here all the time. Government data on ”Covid deaths” cannot be trusted, same goes for any claims that the jabs are responsible for ”saving” lives. Too many variables, hence why excess all-cause mortality is always the best standard data to focus on. I’m probably sounding like a right Fangirl now but here’s our Prof Norman again talking about that infamous Lancet paper which claims the injections saved 20 million lives. He illustrates perfectly in this mini vid just how easily the medical journals have been highjacked by those with a vested interest in only casting these products in a positive light, and unfortunately they still have a lot of influence.
https://wherearethenumbers.substack.com/p/why-we-cannot-ignore-the-lancet-claim
Also, speaking of conflicts of interest, ICL has plenty of them, so I’m of the opinion that anything that comes out of that institution cannot be trusted to be unbiased or accurate. If you look on page 24 of this document from ICL you will see a long list of donors and some familiar names. I note one ”Schwab”, but I don’t know if that’s one of those ‘coincidence’ thingies again…
https://www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/Imperial_IGHI_OurYearOurProgress2021_13Dec21_finalV2.pdf
Indeed.
The lack of proper rigorous statistical information and analysis by the government, msm etc. has been one of the biggest scandals of this shambles, so I’m with you old fangirl!
Public datasets are the only tool which can be used to inform the public as that is the data which will be trusted.
John Beaudoin’s work on cause of death from death certificates in Massachusetts cross referenced with VAERS has shown a temporal association between causes of death & the bioweapon injection. In 2020 the majority cause of deaths recorded were respiratory, from 2021 this changed to blood related.
https://coquindechien.substack.com/
And the denial of antibiotics as well. If someone develops pneumonia but tests negative for Covid, they get antibiotics, per the pre-Covid standard of care. But if they test positive or are even suspected of Covid, they are not given antibiotics no matter how bad their pneumonia is. And they are given largely junk treatments instead, if anything at all.
Did we ever get a breakdown of “covid” deaths divided between those who took daily (whether through diet or supplementation) 2,000 IU of vitamin D, 3,000 mg of vitamin C, plus high doses of zinc, magnesium, selenium, vitamin K – and those who took much lower amounts? I suspect it is difficult to draw meaningful conclusions from the information available – though as a guide, if the body is given the nutrition it needs, you tend to have a much better chance.
Gene therapy drugs (vaccinations) are powerful medicine
For the already vulnerable taking these drugs will push them into an even more compromised position
Making them even more susceptible to the myriad of bacteria in the body
Looking at UK Govt figures on vax rollout and deaths you can clearly see an IMMEDIATE spike in deaths in over 80 year olds in Jan 2021
Most of these deaths will have been from pneumococcal bacterial infection
Reclassified as – you guessed it
Wow, it all makes sense now.
Since the figures show that it is the third and fourth vaccinations that cause the most damage I think that 2021 is unlikely to show up significant effects since the first booster program didn’t start until late September 2021.
All in all, your analysis paints a tiny (3M give or take) vaxx efficacy window and stricter lockdowns as real “life saving”, but it was a “life borrowing with a terrible interest”
“Life borrowing with terrible interest” is a great way to describe it. That description can also apply to lockdowns as well.
From what I remember, analyses published by Daily Sceptic at the time (e.g. of the UHSA data) repeatedly showed that there was a temporary (at least 6 months) benefit, with the elderly benefiting most, so is this article really saying anything new? Over time the benefit wore off and descended into negative territory. In addition, there is the issue of not counting deaths until 14 days after vaccination, commented on before but still ignored, and long-term compromised immunity. This is a complicated issue that requires expert knowledge which the write does not have. Just pulling off a couple of graphs from Our World in Data is not good enough.
I know some ‘elderly’ people who never got vaccinated and they’re absolutely fine, they had Covid at some point, rested, got over it, and had no after effects. And now they don’t have to worry about what the Covid vaccines may or may not be doing to them. So for these unvaccinated elderly people, not getting vaccinated was the right strategy all along.
How many reasonably healthy ‘elderly’ people who got vaccinated but didn’t need to is anyone’s guess, but I suspect a lot were pressurised into getting vaccinated out of fear, due to all the fear-mongering, when they had no need to be vaccinated.
My point is that the ‘one size fits all’ approach is as mindless when applied to the ‘elderly’ as when applied to the rest of the population. The ‘elderly’ are not all the same, but all were nevertheless subjected to intense scare-mongering and put under severe pressure to get vaccinated and only a few were able to resist the fear tactics.
I also know some ‘elderly’ people who got vaccinated. One has recently been diagnosed with inflammation of the heart (which he blames on Covid, not the three or four vaccines he got) for which his doctor has put him on medication, and another ‘elderly’ person I know, who until recently was reasonably fit, has recently had problems walking, not for any of the usual reasons ‘elderly’ people have mobility problems, but for neurological reasons – his brain is failing to communicate properly with one of his legs, and his neurologist has told him not to get the latest booster vaccine.
“On Friday, I posted charts showing that excess mortality is negatively related to elderly vaccination in both Europe and the U.S. In other words: European countries and U.S. states with higher elderly vaccination rates have seen less excess mortality since the pandemic began.”
How about posting charts showing how excess mortality is related to elderly vaccination in Asia and Oceania, where there have been massive increases in Covid deaths after mass vaccination compared with before.
If the vaccines have been effective in preventing deaths – and not just correlated with fewer deaths – in Europe and the USA, then the same vaccines should be effective in preventing deaths in Japan, South Korea, Vietnam, Malaysia, Hong Kong, Singapore, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Philippines, Australia, New Zealand – but there have been huge increases in Covid deaths in these countries after mass vaccination, compared with before, and in many other countries, such as Israel, there has been no reduction in Covid deaths after mass vaccination.
Grasping at evil straws.
I have to wonder why there is a strong desire by Noah to give some legitimacy to injecting people with a NLP that highjacks your body’s cells and makes them produce the most cytotoxic part of a genetically engineered virus which we know does not stay in the injection site but freely travels throughout the body including past the blood brain barrier. And when these 4 billion+ little biological terrorists attach themselves to the body’s epithelial cells they cause inflammation and blood clotting that’s ok because our bodies natural immunity systems are working to protect us against these intruders.
And somehow we are supposed to jig the numbers in such a way that we can validate their use in the older people that were coincidentally slaughtered when the first roll out in early 2021 occurred?
I’m frankly disgusted.
Even our die hard vax lover Dr Campbell sees the problem.
https://youtu.be/B3_bqcvDxvI
Just stop.
Three elderly people in my small Close (of around 25 people) suffered serious, life-limiting strokes shortly after having their jabs. One died a few weeks after the 2nd stroke. Another moved into a Care Home, the third is struggling at home with considerable help from their family.
None of them will be classified as vaccine-damaged.