On Friday, I posted charts showing that excess mortality is negatively related to elderly vaccination in both Europe and the U.S. In other words: European countries and U.S. states with higher elderly vaccination rates have seen less excess mortality since the pandemic began.
I argued, therefore, that focussed protection culminating in voluntary vaccination of high-risk groups was the right strategy all along – which is what the Great Barrington Declaration called for.
One objection to my aggregate-level analysis is that the relationships between excess mortality and elderly vaccination could be confounded by other variables. In fact, the relationship in the European sample was much weaker when controlling for healthcare spending – which is evidence of confounding.
On the other hand, with a sample size of only 30 countries, it is not always possible to disentangle the effects of correlated predictors. And in the larger American sample, the relationship remained strong when controlling for healthcare spending.
Another way to test whether elderly vaccination made a difference is to check which is a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021: excess mortality in 2020, or the elderly vaccination rate. (The vaccines became available at the end of 2020, so will not have had an impact until 2021).
It’s possible that some places are simply better at preventing Covid deaths – whether because their populations are healthier, they provide higher quality healthcare, or some combination of factors. If so, you’d expect to see a strong relationship between excess mortality in 2020 and excess mortality in 2021 – even when controlling for the elderly vaccination rate.
On the other hand, if elderly vaccination is what matters, you’d expect to see a strong relationship between the elderly vaccination rate and excess mortality in 2021 – even when controlling for excess mortality in 2020.
To put it another way: if some places are simply better at preventing Covid deaths than others, excess mortality in 2020 should be a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021; but if elderly vaccination matters is what matters, the elderly vaccination rate should be stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021.
I ran the numbers, and found that in both samples the elderly vaccination rate was a stronger predictor of excess mortality in 2021. So the places that had lowest excess mortality in 2021 weren’t necessarily the places that had lowest excess mortality in 2020; rather, they were the places that had the highest elderly vaccination rates.
This constitutes additional evidence that vaccinating the elderly saved lives. All the caveats in my original post still apply.
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Did I read that correctly?
He left with a payout rather than face his accusers? i.e. he profited?
Welcome to Guardian World.
Lefties always regard themselves and other lefties as virtuous.
Time is showing that the virtuous types run their own lives by different standards and values to those they expect others to have!
I think Sunak is experiencing a glitch here. Can somebody turn him off then on again? Seriously idiotic, how he’s talking;
https://twitter.com/BestForBritain/status/1663489680090845186
Sounds just like Anthony Blinken “cooperating” on releasing gain of function documents.
Wow. That is disturbing. Has this puppet been re-programmed already?
Presumably, had he been grooming the young male interns he would have been ‘stunning and brave’ and bumped up a pay grade.
When he departed, he was praised by his bosses for his “incisive” and “brilliant” journalist – such as this piece entitled ‘It is only a matter of time before we turn on the unvaccinated’ ..
I am not sure this piece is journalism, more a nasty man’s opinions, and certainly not describable as brilliant.
Like so much that is published by the Guardian it is unpleasant and vindictive with obvious bias.
“As the pandemic slows down, they (the poor) will continue to suffer the highest death rates along with new variants of the old plagues of racism and snobbery.”
So ends the Cohen article.
Well this chap got a couple of things correct – he spotted the oncoming problem of failed cancer diagnoses and digital ID’s.
Apart from the above this article is vicious, mean and extremely totalitarian in its tone. This is a man who has clearly done no research whatsoever because by Feb 21 the mortality figures of 2020 were known and there was no excess, that was about to hit in 2021 as the poisonous injections were ruled out. He failed also to appreciate that BAME communities also have an historical antipathy to ‘white man’s injections.’ Some how he also manages to squeeze in a left / right diatribe regarding those of us refusing the poisons.
Clearly an ignorant, crude, lazy, know it all bully with not an ounce of ability or talent. A perfect fit for The Groan.
I expect ‘poor white people, ultra-orthodox Haredi Jews, black or south Asian men and women’ have fared much better than ‘good citizens who taken their jabs’ with regards to excess deaths from April 2022.
Very pleasing to see that Toby has been gifted this opportunity to treat Cohen to some payback. Straight in the goolies.
Hypocrisy at the Grauniad?
What a surprise!
If there’s something even less interesting than that someone reported an alleged sexual harrassment which happened 22 years ago 17 years after it allegedly happened, can someone please not tell me about it?
They didn’t all wait for 17 years before reporting it:
“Some of his alleged victims have accused GNM of failing to act on complaints they made to managers over a period of years.”
Over the course of seven years, he allegedly inappropriately touched a woman in a public house about every 17 months, the most recent of these alleged occurences happening 8 years ago isn’t less BS than the more prominent alleged incident I wrote about. I’d consider myself lucky if was only groped by a gay guy every 17 months instead of by at least 17 every 12 months and no one gives a shit about that because it’s always just for fun. And this doesn’t even include more mundane assaults.
That you happen to dislike this guy (I don’t particularly like him, either) doesn’t mean it’s ok to target him with methods you also very much dislike if you sympathize more with the target, eg, Trump’s Just grab them by the pussy.
One thing at a time:
Firstly, I was commenting on you referring to the fact that one woman reported alleged sexual harassment 17 years after it happened. But there is no indication that any of the other women waited a long time before reporting it. What happened was that GNM took no action, which isn’t the women’s fault.
Secondly, if this is true, I don’t think it’s acceptable, regardless of whether I like the man or don’t like him:
‘The NYT said Mr Cohen’s reputation was “widely known in the newsroom”, to the extent that some of his female colleagues used a different entrance to a pub near the office “to avoid being groped by him”.’
Firstly, I was commenting on you referring to the fact that one woman reported alleged sexual harassment 17 years after it happened. But there is no indication that any of the other women waited a long time before reporting it.
In other words, you were writing about a different topic than the one I had been writing about and just pretending this was somehow a reply to my text. Thank you, I noticed that. The tactic – change topic whenever one would otherwise have to concede a point – isn’t that clever or uncommon.
We have no information regarding how long these other women waited for reporting their incidents and in any case, policing behaviour of people in pubs is not the business or responsibilty of the Guardian News and Media Corporation, not even if it happens the employ these people. That’s a matter for pub management and for the police. Regardless of what you do or don’t consider acceptable, Cohen hasn’t been found guilty of a crime (sexual harassment is a crime) and as far as can be told from the text, nobody ever even tried to report him for allegedly having committed a crime. That doesn’t exactly make these dated allegiations look terribly credible.
Lastly, there’s a massive issue of double standards here.
I’m having difficulty understanding you. So I’ll just make it crystal clear what my first comment was about. It was in reply to this comment from you:
“If there’s something even less interesting than that someone reported an alleged sexual harrassment which happened 22 years ago 17 years after it allegedly happened, can someone please not tell me about it?”
You specifically mentioned that someone had reported an alleged sexual harassment 17 years after it allegedly happened, and so I simply pointed out:
‘They didn’t all wait for 17 years before reporting it:
“Some of his alleged victims have accused GNM of failing to act on complaints they made to managers over a period of years.”’
I don’t understand what your problem is with what I pointed out.
I have no problem with you repeating the same irrelevant text like a broken record without ever addressing any points raised against it.
Since you seem to have a problem with complaints from the distant past, it seems strange that you dredge up ‘Trump’s just grab them by the pussy’ comments.
Maybe it’s true what people say, and that Guardian supporters are not averse to a bit of hypocrisy.
Might also be worth your while refreshing your memory on that quote too? You’ll find that Trump didn’t say what you think he said, and that rather commenting on his own behaviour, he was merely making an observation on the morals of some women when they found themselves in the company of rich and powerful men.
I thought we didn’t like people going into the deep past digging for dirt to destroy careers?
I have many reasons for disliking the Guardian. Not participating in a pile on on one of its reporters is not one of them.
“The NYT said Mr Cohen had grabbed her bottom, and that five other women had described similar encounters happening in pubs between 2008 and 2015. A seventh said that Mr Cohen had repeatedly offered to send her explicit photographs in 2018.”
Are you calling 2008-2015 and 2018 “the deep past”?
And there’s a difference between digging into the past for politically incorrect tweets and sexual harassment.
Furthermore, a reading of this delightful piece – thanks John – should be enough to convince anyone that this miserable example of humanity deserves little sympathy. And he used to work for The Groan. Case closed.
https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2021/feb/27/it-is-only-a-matter-of-time-before-we-turn-on-the-unvaccinated
I’ve never grabbed a bottom in my life. It’s not something I would do, nor send explicit photographs or request them.
That said, there are far worse things going on in the world. And if this sort of character flaw is enough to end someone’s career, I don’t think there are enough flawless characters out there to do all the jobs that need doing.
Quite frankly, I think we’ve lost our minds.
Dodgy actors (newspaper barons and those who pull their strings) who want to spin the news a certain way, and indeed get pieces written in The Graun etc to stick the knife in, say, to call for the victimisation of unvaccinated, would probably choose a compromised sex-pest handsy journalist to churn out the vitriolic stuff. How could he or she argue?
After that, they pay off said fictional journo and let him/her/they go. A possibly hypothesis if you buy the kompromat theory of corrupt institutions and professions, as I do.
Sadly, I am NOT surprised one iota by this.
https://off-guardian.org/2023/05/31/bbc-verify/
And here’s a piece of real journalism from the always excellent Iain Davis at Off-G. For a change he also has a good laugh at Spring and Verify.
I bet BOTH the Guardian readers were outraged. Cohen was the reason I unsubscribed from the Spectator Overrated scribbler who has gotten his just desserts