The Daily Mail recently published a story claiming the world could face a mass extinction of plants and animals within less than 80 years, with more than a quarter of species dying by 2100. It was an eye-catching headline, timed of course to appear at the same time as the UN’s biodiversity conference. But curiously missing from the article, based on a recent science paper, was a note that most of the data underpinning the eco-scare were created by the authors of the report, while assumptions were made that global temperatures would rise by up to 5°C. Given that global temperatures have risen only 1.1°C over the last two centuries, and over the last two decades probably no more than 0.1°C, this looks a tad on the high side.
The report authors give considerable weight to the view that food chains are fragile in nature, and one extinction leads to another. This may be true in some cases, although most animals in the wild are resilient in adapting their diets to changing conditions. But building a media ‘mass death’ headline surely needs a few actual facts. The authors admit: “Apart from the obvious modelling and computational challenges to incorporate interactions among species, the main reason why there are few studies accounting for interactions is that obtaining sufficient data in most communities is intractable.” They add that an important caveat is that “while our virtual species are functionally realistic, they do not have taxonomic or phylogenetic meaning.” According to the Mail, the scientists aimed to build an “ecologically plausible Earth”.
Modelled results were obtained via a supercomputer assuming temperatures suddenly leap by between 4-5°C in just 80 years. The so-called ‘pathways’ feeding in these huge temperature rises are themselves the product of computers. But reality has started to bite in climate model circles with the realisation that their mock-ups are running far too hot. Four decades of wrong forecasts and the knowledge that global warming went off the boil two decades ago has led to a slight lowering of the various projections. But claiming that a quarter of species could disappear within 80 years as temperatures rise five times more than they have done for the last 200 is just fanciful speculation.
The Mail reported that the scientists’ tool can map extinctions everywhere on earth. It is said to confirm “beyond doubt” that the world is in the throes of its sixth mass extinction.
The sixth mass extinction scare is becoming very popular in climate Armageddon circles. Heavily promoted by the World Wildlife Fund, it has a lot going for it on the propaganda front, although some may quibble that it is notably short on actual proof. The International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) lists 823 animals and plant species (mostly animals) that have gone extinct since 1500. If we are in the midst of the sixth mass extinction, as the Mail reports, we might have expected to be able to name more than 823 extinct species in 522 years.
Five years ago, the eminent Smithsonian paleontologist Doug Erwin dismissed sixth mass extinction talk as “junk science“. He went on to state that “many of those making facile comparisons between the current situation and past mass extinctions don’t have a clue about the difference in the nature of the data, much less how truly awful the mass extinctions recorded in the marine fossil record actually were”.
The Australian science blogger Jo Nova had an interesting take on the latest mass extinction science paper. “So a supercomputer adds up 15,000 webs of low level data on sloths, bark and butterflies, with error bars larger than trends, in systems we don’t understand, and a million lines of code, and extrapolates data up the kazoo – what could possibly go wrong?”
She goes on to quote Dr. Patrick Moore, co-founder of Greenpeace, who has noted that most of the species going extinct, “never existed in the first place”. Moore is another who is underwhelmed by extinction work produced by computers. He is unimpressed by estimates from the biologist Edward Wilson that 50,000 species go extinct every year. This estimate is based on computer models of the number of potential but as yet undiscovered species in the world.
“There’s no scientific basis for saying that 50,000 species are going extinct. The only place you can find them is in Edward O. Wilson’s computer at Harvard University. They’re actually electrons on a hard drive. I want a list of Latin names of actual species,” he wrote.
Finally, let us remember the Bramble Cay melomys, the first animal said to have become extinct due to human-caused climate change. Until recently, this little brown rat lived on a small sandy island off the coast of Australia. How it got there nobody knows, but rats are very resourceful and it probably hopped on a passing branch, said goodbye to a billion of its close relatives, and set sail. It liked its new home since there were plenty of blue turtle and birds eggs to eat. But, alas, its home was only three metres above sea level and the area prone to cyclones (your fault), so one day it got washed away. The Guardian was particularly taken with its sad end since it called for a “moment of silence”, and said it would “continue to fight for the things you believe in” – although presumably not eating blue turtle eggs.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Their model appears to be biased towards finding extinction wherever it can. In their model climate change:
I don’t wish to be too blasé about the impact of climate change, but every study that comes out appears to suffer from serious flaws, suggesting that the supporting evidence in general for ‘the climate disaster’ is weak.
Anyway, even if disaster is imminent (which I very much doubt), all of the self-flagellation coming from Western nations is unlikely to make the slightest difference, given that the rest of the world is keen to carry on as normal (or even take advantage of ‘the economical niches’ that are emerging because the the countries of the West are slowly destroying their economies).
Surprise, surprise. A national newspaper promoting a scare story that could happen, but only in the imagination. The only mass extinction will com from the Globalist plan to ban farming and energy for ordinary people.
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Holy Hannah! It just gets worse.
Planet Earth Has existed for 4.6 billion years, if you compressed that epoc into a 24 hour clock, homo sapiens existence would occupy the last 30 seconds! (90 seconds before that would be the evolution from were ever we came)
The last known ele (extinction level event)
happened 65 million years ago and wiped out 90% of ALL life on earth, yet, here we are with a world more abundant in life that has ever been known to science!
Do the people that write this b%^*!hit really think we are gods or something? with the ultimate power to create,save or destroy the world at our command? If I did believe in God I would beg him(her and all other pronouns) for the good grace to forgive his nieve and arrogant children!
The only things heading towards extinction are honesty, truth and common sense
You forgot intelligence Stu.
So it is not real fauna and flora which are disappearing, but virtual ones inside models. Perhaps they should adapt the characteristics of their virtual species to make them more robust, and then apply these in real life to make the Earth’s inhabitants more resilient.
However, this has worked through the millennia without man’s interference and resulted in a fantastic diversity.
I really do wish the god of the old testament would return and dish some Sodom and Gomorrah treatment to our beloved rulers. Never was a class of ppl so undeserving of their status based on their fighting abilities or their ideas, even the French aristocracy was more worthy than this lot.
Another computer model. When will we learn?
I think those who read the Daily Sceptic already have, the rest react to computer models and the media like the bloke in the Life of Brian, picking up a sandal and proclaiming it is a sign.
The only thing missing from this Eco Nutter Fairytale is the correct ending of the story:
“So the Global “Elites” decided a mass culling of humans would be preferable and put into motion their plans to achieve it.”
Just read an article in Reuters Science section, proclaiming that over a million species are threatened with extinction. It really is an apocalyptic article, and guess what? it is all our fault.
It states 50% of the planet needs to be conserved to save 85% of the remaining species, which is interesting in itself, as humans inhabit the best places to live on the planet.
I suppose as the climate panic wanes there needs to be another manufactured panic waiting, and ready to go.
“According to the Mail, the scientists aimed to build an “ecologically plausible Earth”.”
Then they royally screwed up.
Plausible?
Do they even know what that means?
Apart from the Bramble Cay melomys, a mutant rat, they can name not even one. And their 5ºC temperature is the old RCP8.5 “Business as Usual” spook lie (‘Borderline impossible’ as Judy Currie pointed out) envisioning coal burn 5 times 2000 levels and no-one and no creature doing anything to alleviate even the most basic problems.
The Mail’s first mistake was to categorise these GangGreen numpties as “scientists”.
I get more entertainment out of of CM’s articles taking the pee out of climate mob hysteria than I do out of Private Eye these days. I’ve cancelled my subscription and make donations to DS instead. Time I did the same with the BBC licence fee. Happy Xmas to my reader.
“There’s no scientific basis for saying that 50,000 species are going extinct.”————That is because Climate Change (global warming) mostly isn’t science. ——–When every doom-laden forecast has turned out to be not just wrong, but very wrong, then you begin to realise that the so called “science” is really just the big excuse for more Central planning, regulation and mandates, and less freedom and choice. Despite this barrage of misinformation masquerading as “science” failing on every single occasion to produce anything remotely like what has actually occurred in the real world, the general public seem not to have lost their appetite for more of the same stuff.—— Most of the politicians and bureaucrats who subscribe to the lifestyle changes that their “saving the planet” policies require, would be humiliated and embarrassed by their total lack of knowledge on this issue if they had to explain the basics of it to a primary school class. So, they fall back on this idea that there is “consensus” and they think this will spare them the embarrassment of making a fool of themselves. But as Aristotle knew “Consensus is the weakest form of argument”