The widespread use of regularly adjusted global and local surface temperature datasets showing increasingly implausible rates of warming has been dealt a further blow with new groundbreaking research that shows 50% less warming over 50 years across the eastern United States. The research attempts to remove distortions caused by increasing urban heat and uses human-made structure density data over 50 years supplied by the Landsat satellites. The 50% reduction in the warming trend is by comparison with the official National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) homogenised surface temperature dataset.
The research was compiled by two atmospheric scientists at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, Dr. Roy Spencer and Professor John Christy. They used a dataset of urbanisation changes called ‘Built-Up’ to determine the average effect that urbanisation has had on surface temperatures. Urbanisation differences were compared to temperature differences from closely spaced weather stations. The temperature plotted was in the morning during the summertime. A full methodology of the project is shown here in a posting on Dr. Spencer’s blog.
Dr. Spencer believes that the ‘Built-Up’ dataset, which extends back to the 1970s, will be useful in ‘de-urbanising’ land-based surface temperature measurements in the U.S. as well as other countries. All the major global datasets use temperature measurements from the Integrated Surface Database (ISD), and all have undertaken retrospective upward adjustments in the recent past. In the U.K., the Met Office removed a ‘pause’ in global temperatures from 1998 to around 2010 by two significant adjustments to its HadCRUT database over the last 10 years. The adjustments added about 30% warming to the recent record. Removing the recent adjustments would bring the surface datasets more into line with the accurate measurements made by satellites and meteorological balloons.
Of course, if the objective is to promote a command-and-control Net Zero project, using widespread fear of rising temperatures to mandate huge societal and economic changes, a little extra warming would appear useful. But warming on a global scale started to run out of steam over 20 years ago, and the stunt can only be pulled for so long before the disconnect with reality becomes too obvious. There is a danger that the integrity of the surface measurements will be put on the line. Earlier this year, two top atmospheric scientists, Emeritus Professors William Happer and Richard Lindzen, told a U.S. Government enquiry that “climate science is awash with manipulated data, which provides no reliable scientific evidence”.
As regular readers will recall, this is not the first time that the NOAA U.S. surface database has been under fire. The U.S. meteorologist Anthony Watts recently published a critical report calling it “fatally flawed”. He found that 96% of U.S. temperature stations failed to meet what NOAA itself considered to be acceptable and uncorrupted placement standards. Watts defined ‘corruption’ has being caused by the localised effects of urbanisation. His report also drew attention to a rarely-publicised NOAA database compiled from 114 nationwide stations designed to provide continuous recordings away from urban heat distortions. The measurements started in 2005, and to date show little if any warming.
Below is the graph plotted by Dr. Spencer showing the ‘raw’ measurements taken from the ISD compared with his de-urbanised figures over 37 eastern states.
It can be seen that there is a dramatic fall in the warming trend over the last 50 years, down to only 0.12°C a decade. But the NOAA adjusted figures are even higher than the raw data. The official NOAA average is actually 0.24°C warming a decade, meaning the de-urbanised measurement is 50% lower than this.
Airports are a favourite measuring place since they offer regular and accurate readings. Of course it has been noted that they are prone to enormous urban heat effects. Three of the top four temperature records during the last summer in the U.K. were set at airports. Here is why Heathrow airport should never again be used by the Met Office as a poster story for global warming.
The raw data for Orlando International Airport in Florida show a massive 0.3°C warming per decade, but this falls to a de-urbanised figure of just 0.07°C.
It is early days for Spencer’s work in this field, and he reports that the 50% figure is likely to be the upper limit of de-urbanisation adjustments. Other times and months may be lower. But he notes that all CMIP6 climate models produce U.S. summertime temperature trends greater than NOAA observations, which means the “discrepancy between climate models and observations is even larger than currently suspected by many of us”. Spencer ends by stating that John Christy and he, “believe it is time for a new surface temperature dataset, and the method outlined… looks like a viable approach to that end”.
Meanwhile, COP27 starts at the weekend. It is a fair bet that every warning of future temperature rise will reference the politically-correct surface datasets, and every forecast of climate thermogeddon will incant the authority of climate models.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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Warmtarding – another fake $cience. I remember being told that the ice age was our doom, that the US had to carpet bomb (their fav activity) the North Pole with Ash to melt it (1974). New York was to have drowned by 1995 (okay then they moved it to 2015). Al Whore said 2014 the Arctic would fit into a dixie cup. Okay, now it is moved out to 2030. Many parts of the planet are colder once UAH is taken into account. It depends. Their is no global climate. I have had a residence on a lake, hot 25C on my side, cold wet and rainy on t’other side. Plant food is 0.04% gas by weight, 95% spewed by Earth Mommy, and falls out of processes we don’t even understand.
Climatethingychangey is only matched in its intense fraud, corruption and stupidity by the cults of Rona and Socialism/Communism. Can’t wait to hear the sermon the coming Sundays from Priest Idiot Druid on the end of the world (he wets himself he gets so worked up). Clown show.
If the temperatures recorded in the past were “wrong” than how can we be certain that the temperatures measured today are “right”?
The answer is that we can never be sure of temperatures because they are political artefacts, so we can happily ignore all the guff from COP27 et al because it does not reflect reality, just the desires of politicians and those in their pockets.
Down in the People’s Republic of Australia, in central NSW, we had heavy snow 2 days ago.
Think snow in the UK in early May.
Remember, this is in dry, hot Australia.
And yet our enlightened governments push on with the plans of Zero Power to try and make it colder still!
Cognitive dissonance off the Richter scale!
And the poster child for thermagedden, your Great Barrier Reef, is looking pretty peachy.
The children of Bullshit Mountain are fast running out of disaster porn.
I didn’t see that mentioned, however, I am sure if you had had unusually hot weather for early May, it would be noteworthy for AGW aficionados, the BBC and the Guardian, and they would draw attention to it loud and long (and with a shudder of excitement, I’ve no doubt). I am hoping for some proper winter weather this season in the southern half of England, just too see the spin put on it (‘oh well, of course, AGW can cause extreme cold spells as well, it’s all part of the earth getting hotter’!)
Our wettest drought on record seems to get ever wetter!
On day I had been sceptical about “climate change”, that catch all phrase that covers everything but means nothing and my brother said to me “Why would they say there was global warming if it isn’t true” ?. ————-This is the mentality that allows climate officialdom to get away with this pseudo scientific fraud. People cannot comprehend being lied to on such a scale and because they have no clue about the politics involved they think it must all really be about “science” and if all scientists say something is true then who are non scientists to disagree with that? WRONG. ——All scientists do not agree at all, and in any case science is not decided by a show of hands, but what most ordinary folk don’t realise is that the so called climate scientists are mostly computer modellers that stick assumptions into a climate model. But models are NOT science and they are not evidence of anything. What the ordinary public who are mostly busy with work and family life also don’t realise is that most of these so called climate scientists are funded by government.—– But lets say some scientists funded by the fossil fuel industry come to the conclusion that global warming is not much of a problem. The climate establishment will come down on them hard and claim they are simply protecting the interests of the fossil fuel companies who fund that science, and that they have “an agenda”. But what makes people think government have no agenda? —-Ofcourse they do. It is the United Nations Sustainable Development agenda which seeks to control the worlds wealth and resources and use computer modelling to convince an unsuspecting public that if they do not comply with NET ZERO top down control over every aspect of their lives than climate apocalypse will ensue. But the same models that project that apocalypse have so far all been wrong. Not just wrong actually, but very wrong. They all grossly overestimated past warming and the resultant extreme weather that was supposed to occur. Infact there is no increase in extreme weather anywhere. Yet the same models continue to churn out the same projections of doom and governments base policy upon them. mmmmmm But trying to explain that to ones brother who gets his information from the 6 o’clock News on BBC isn’t that easy.
Modelling seems to be a pretty useless tool as regards accuracy. It’s not just ‘global warming’, the mess made of covid and foot and mouth are two fairly recent examples where taking the results as the truth, and then carrying out policy based on this’truth’ causes widespread problems (to put it mildly). Modelling may work for some things (does it? I’m no mathematician) but it’s surely a case of garbage in, garbage out when a lot of the inputted information is either guess work, corrupted information, or information with a political spin.
Do you remember Tamagotchis? These were (vastly simplified) computer simulations of real animals. And all of these models are just that: Computer programs trying to simulate (vastly complex and mostly blank spots on the map of science) natural systems based on somewhat educated guesses about them.
A scheme to entice people into the SMART meter trap.
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-63483668
50 Years Exaggerated Climate Data
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Today, the local Berkshire internet rag published an article about the continued Thames Water hosepipe ban using the headline “Bad New for Gardeners”. Imagine that: After more then 12cm of rain fell in October (12cm according to the rain collecting pot in my garden which is not really cylindrical but gets wider towards the top) a hosepipe ban is said to be bad news for English gardeners in November. The climate apostle’s fantasy world is just as much completely disconnected from observable reality as that of Corona’s witnesses (no wonder, considering that this are largely the same people). The following succession of water shortage! stories from this year nicely illustrates this.
First story (end of August): Due to climate breakdown, is going to remain dry for months to come (aka There will be no more rain!).
Second story (mid September): While there has recently been some rain (gross understatement), the ground is so dry that it’s hard like concrete and can’t absort any water which just runs off (implied … and then, it just vanishes aka It’s not raining!).
Third story (beginning of November): While there have been about 10cm of rain in October (another understatement), the grounds just absorbs it all (implied … and then, it just vanishes aka IT’S NOT RAINING!!)
With some luck, there’ll be a fourth story, possibly if flooding hits again Jan/ Feb next year. Presumably, it will then go something like this: While a real lot of rain has been falling ever since we predicted that it won’t rain anymore, the ground is so fully soaked that it all just remains on top if it (implied … and then, it just vanishes aka IT’S BLOODY F***KING NOT RAINING!!1)
Are you sure you didn’t just have the wrong type of rain.
I can’t remember which water company first used this classic excuse, but they probably used the same PR company that the train companies used years ago when they blamed delays on the wrong type of snow. Maybe we’re facing electricity shortages this winter despite investing £billions in turbines because we’re going to get the wrong type of wind.