The last few years have seen the climate alarmist industry go all in on ‘attributing’ bad weather to humans causing the climate to change. As global warming goes off the boil and the climate resolutely fails to break down on cue, an entire industry of pseudoscience has sprung up to scour the world and catastrophise every unusual natural weather event or disaster. It will not come as a surprise to discover that such attribution is based on climate models. As we shall see, the models do nothing more than produce worthless guesses.
When Professor Richard Lindzen of MIT noted that the current climate narrative is “absurd”, but trillions of dollars says it is not “absurd”, he was undoubtedly thinking of the product of climate models. Roger Pielke, a noted science writer and a professor at the University of Colorado Boulder, is particularly scathing about attribution work: “I can think of no other area of research where the relaxing of rigour and standards has been encouraged by researchers in order to generate claims more friendly to headlines, political advocacy and even lawsuits. But there you go.”
It is simple to explain what ‘attribution’ models do. First they simulate a climate with no human involvement that does not exist, and then compare it with another simulation that is supposed to reflect the involvement of humans burning fossil fuel. Any weather event at a local level that is magnified in the second is, abracadabra, said to be due to human-caused climate change.
To take such results seriously it must be assumed that the models have correct information in the first place. An inability over 40 years for climate models to predict an accurate temperature would seem to indicate they are work in progress. Ignorance of the equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) number – the amount the Earth will warm if carbon dioxide is doubled in the atmosphere – would be considered another handicap. In addition, it is interesting to observe some academics attempting to produce a perfect model capable of such precision when they are mapping a climate system that is non-linear with numerous, only partially understood, powerful forces at work. How anyone can take the results seriously, with all the inevitable ‘garbage in-garbage out’ possibilities, is a mystery. Measuring cats in a sack might be considered a marginally easier task.
Attribution studies fail the falsification principle outlined by the science philosopher Karl Popper. This is held to be the test that differentiates real science from pseudoscience. Any hypothesis must be testable and conceivably proved false. Unless a suggestion can be tested in this way, it is opinion, guesswork, or, more uncharitably, crystal ball-gazing. Stating, for instance, that a bad storm was caused by humans when a natural explanation is also available, or calculating that wildfires will consume so many more acres than before, is unprovable. It therefore fails the test to be termed science.
Of course, the attribution claims are all over the popular prints. Within just a few days of last July’s U.K. brief heatwave, the Guardian was reporting: “Climate breakdown made U.K. heatwave 10 times more likely, study finds.” Of course there was a natural explanation for the soaring summer temperature, caused by southern winds being supercharged by an adjacent intense low pressure system. Friederike Otto from the Grantham Institute at Imperial, an operation partly-funded by the green billionaire investor Jeremy Grantham, said the 10 times finding was worrying, and if carbon emissions were not rapidly cut it could be “even worse” than previously thought.
According to Roger Pielke, the rise of individual ‘event attribution’ studies coincides with frustration that the IPCC has not ”definitively concluded” that many types of extreme weather have become commonplace. In his view they offer “comfort and support” to those focused on climate advocacy. Since they fill a strong demand in politics, Pielke suggests they are “here to stay”.
Friederike Otto is at the forefront of such studies and is the co-lead of World Weather Attribution (WWA), a body that specialises in near-instant weather attributions. On her Grantham CV, Otto claims WWA provides “timely scientific evidence” on single events, “paving the way for new sustainability litigation”.
Meanwhile any scientific work that, by suggesting the climate is not breaking down, is inconvenient for those promoting the command-and-control Net Zero political project, is be suppressed. Otto was one of four “experts” used by state-owned Agence France-Presse in a footling ‘fact check’ of a recent paper from four leading Italian scientists. They argued that a climate emergency is not supported by the data. She said the authors, including two physics professors, were “of course” not writing in good faith. “If the journal cares about science they should withdraw it loudly and publicly, saying that it should never have been published,” she demanded.
Contacted by the Daily Sceptic, she added that the paper was “bad science”. She obviously feels able to try to cancel professorial physics authorities since she has a “diploma” in physics from the University of Potsdam. Otto’s doctorate was in the philosophy of science, and before joining Grantham she spent 10 years teaching in the School of Geography at Oxford University. “I am not trying to ban anyone and I do not think it is relevant whether their first degree is in art history or physics,” she explained
Otto is also behind a WWA guide for journalists titled: “Reporting extreme weather and climate change“. In a foreword, the former BBC Today editor Sarah Sands bemoans the time when the former U.K. Chancellor Nigel Lawson managed to suggest there had been no increase in what she called extreme weather. I wish we had this guide for journalists to help us mount a more effective challenge to his claim, wrote Sands. These days , she enthused, attribution studies have given us significant insight into the horsemen of the climate apocalypse.
“In this way we are able to move from anecdote and conjecture, from superstition and wishful thinking, to science. We have evidence and we have facts. They are a secure foundation for news,” she said.
Science? Unverified guesswork would be more accurate. Popper must be turning in his grave.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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ICC issues a demand that Sir Winston Churchill be disinterred and put on trial for defying the National SOCIALISTS.
Hahahaha! This could happen!!
Absolutely. New research shows he authorized an attack on peace-loving Germany.
Dresden, Cologne, Hamburg… thousand bomber raids = genocide.
War is a dirty business. You quote three attacks. The German people weren’t rounded up and put to death by their millions. The merits of mass bombing on population centres in terms of the duration of the war can be discussed both ways. Genocide, it wasn’t.
It was a planned genocide which didn’t work out as the planners had hoped because it took them too long to master the technology to a sufficient degree to accomplish what they had hope to achieve. There was no reason to round anyone up as people were simply targetted in their homes in densely populated areas after someone had figured out that these would “burn well.”
The military merits of aerial mass slaughter of civilians to break their morale don’t need to be discussed. In cases the necessity of a land campaign until almost all of Germany had been occupied didn’t already make this clear, US “morale bombing” in total overdrive, followed by a hasty withdrawal from the war theatre in SE Asia has answered this question: There are no military benefits.
Apart from that, intentional mass slaughter of civilians is a war crime. Intentional destruction of civilian infrastructure to accomplish mass slaughter of civilians (the dambustet raids) is a war crime. And firebombing of cities to accomplish mass slaughter of civilians is a war crime as well.
There are also a few million German civilians who fell victim to Russian ethnic cleansing of eastern middle Europe.
About time the Israeli genocidal maniacs were arrested.
As I type this the ‘votes’ on GlassHalfFull‘s comment: thumbs up show minus 3 and the thumbs down show minus eight. I have no idea what minus 3 thumbs up means or how it can be done.
I once ‘liked’ somebody’s comment and it stayed on zero. People have pointed the mystery of the thumbs out before. It’s further evidence to me how pointless they are because they don’t even function properly and change/influence absolutely nothing. Most sane DS subscribers will be back posting what they want, whenever they want, irrespective of how many little red/green numbers they collect, so why have them in the first place?
The only thing I like your comment is that you and your up-voters are funding the DS.
Why?
You don’t seem to be gaining any agreement here at least.
Well here we are again. It is a regrettable loss of lives, but genocide it isn’t. The maniacs are Hamas and Hezbollah who indoctrinate their kids and put AK47’s in their hands, and dynamite around their waists. Don’t bother replying…
It’s my duty to reply to correct your falsehoods.
Even Jewish experts on genocide and the holocaust agree that Israel is committing “genocide”.
●”It is no longer possible to deny that Israel was engaged in systematic war crimes, crimes against humanity and genocidal actions”
Professor Bartov, a former IDF soldier, is considered one of the world’s leading specialists on the subject of genocide.
https://www.theguardian.com/world/article/2024/aug/13/israel-gaza-historian-omer-bartov
●”Yes, it is genocide. This is exactly what genocide looks like”
Amos Goldberg, professor of Holocaust History at the Hebrew University of Jerusalem, wrote the following article about the situation in Gaza for an Israeli online magazine.
https://www.jewishvoiceforlabour.org.uk/article/prof-amos-goldberg-yes-it-is-genocide/
●”A textbook case of genocide”
Raz Segal is an Israeli who is Associate Professor of Holocaust and Genocide Studies and Endowed Professor in the Study of Genocide
https://jewishcurrents.org/a-textbook-case-of-genocide
A range of views are available, but cutting and pasting stuff from naysayers on the internet isn’t changing my mind. I believe the Israeli’s have got this right, and that the ICC is nothing more than another do-good court acting beyond its remit. Please dont reply. I wont be posting again on this thread.
Yes there is attempted genocide – by Hamas and Hezbollah trying to erase Israel from the map.
Is this deja vu? What happened with the last arrest warrant?
These kids haven’t got a hope in hell of turning out like decent human beings when they attend UNRWA Jihadi School, have they? Indoctrinated to hate from birth and doomed, courtesy of their Jew-obsessed death cult, destined to be like one of their terrorist, psycho heroes. Sad;
”EXPOSED: We have obtained exclusive interviews of Palestinian students revealing what they learn in UNRWA schools. Meet Mohammad: “The solution for Jerusalem? We kill the Jews. We get rid of the Jews. Inshallah, Jews will be wiped out from all of Palestine by the grace of Allah.”
https://x.com/HillelNeuer/status/1859550369967223197
https://x.com/KenBelt3/status/1859567580706439326
Here are your darling Israeli Jews singing the following (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DvTyg1kJGzM):
Let the IDF win and f*** the Arabs,
Ole, ole, ole, ole,
Why is school out in Gaza?
There are no children left there.
The amazing thing was the Jews obviously have such a clout in our media world that they managed to turn the hooliganism in Amsterdam around so as to depict the Israeli perpetrators as the victims! And everybody fell for it – or was told to fall for it.
And here again is the wonderful IDF dressing up in sexy panties and generally having a ball blowing up people’s houses: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gEo813rYm8g.
The day before yesterday Israel bombed Damascus and yesterday Palmyra (also Syria), all in addition to all of Lebanon, not to mention at home in Gaza.
All in the name of self-defence?!
Of course, this is in addition to the ongoing genocide in Gaza, where the IDF is assisting (other) criminal gangs in stealing humanitarian aid deliveries so that they can sell the materials at extortionate prices to the starving Palestinians.
And we are supposed to praise all Jews? Can you inform me why?
Israel has been at war with Syria for decades, I think it might date from 1948.
I am being unfair since not all Jews will support the Israeli actions. But AIPAC has all US politicians in its pocket and apparently a rich Jewish lady donated $100 million to the Trump campaign, which will ensure a strong pro-Israel presidency. Netanyahu has nothing to fear.
Yes i can…… Zionist indoctrination….
By judging them for defending Israel from self-confessed genocidal terrorists, they condemn themselves.
So will the leadership of Hamas be on the warrant list any time soon, in relation to the events of October 7th 2023?
Also still waiting (unexpectantly) for Tony Blair to join the list one day..
Now can we have arrest warrants for Putin & Zelensky for Genocide Against Slavs, and for assassinating political opponents?
And arrest warrants for Lula & Moraes for crimes against the Brazilian People, attempted assassination of the true leader Jair Bolsonaro, and arranging a Fake Coup, just like Erdogan did in Turkey, as an excuse to arrest military patriots?
And arrest warrants for Tony Blair & Gordon Brown?
That’ll do for a start…
In other news: ICC’s latest report says the holocaust was also perpetrated by the Jews. Calls for reparations to be paid to Germany to redress the historical injustice.
Signed by committee chairman B.E. Zebub
I guess I’m asking myself the same question many others are too:
Why not Blair and Bush for their illegal invasion of Iraq which has led to the deaths of hundreds of thousands and the displacement of millions, or Obama for drone strikes all over the middle east, or Cameron and Sarkozy for bombing Libya and overthrowing the government leading to the deaths of thousands. Or Xi Jingpin for the arbitrary internment of hundreds of thousands of Uyghurs in western China.
Eventually these contradictions become impossible to ignore.
Oh well that will dissapoint all the war loving, pro- pointless death and destruction zealots on here… And thats about all of them….
Always surprising how many deranged folks there are around….
And if you’re going to respond…. Prove the point that it isnt pointless……….
Its quite clear to any sane person that Israel want the Palestinians gone…….
https://fb.watch/v-dftjxTJA/
All reactionaries are paper tigers. Like being savaged by a dead sheep.
I think the Israeli Ministers will manage to survive it.
Why is Tony Blair not wanted by the ICC for war crimes?
The smell of Anti Semitism is very strong,
Will Xi of China also get an arrest warrant?
He has comitted crimes.