• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Satellite Temperature Data Show Almost All Climate Model Forecasts Over the Last 40 Years Were Wrong

by Chris Morrison
8 October 2022 7:00 AM

A major survey into the accuracy of climate models has found that almost all the past temperature forecasts between 1980-2021 were excessive compared with accurate satellite measurements. The findings were recently published by Professor Nicola Scafetta, a physicist from the University of Naples. He attributes the inaccuracies to a limited understanding of Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), the number of degrees centigrade the Earth’s temperature will rise with a doubling of carbon dioxide.

Scientists have spent decades trying to find an accurate ECS number, to no avail. Current estimates range from 0.5°C to around 6-7°C. Without knowing this vital figure, the so-called ‘settled’ science narrative around human-caused climate change remains a largely political invention, not a credible scientific proposition. Professor Scafetta has conducted extensive work into climate models and is a long-time critic of their results and forecasts. In a previous work, he said many of the climate models should be “dismissed and not used by policymakers”. Along with around 250 professors, he is a signatory to the World Climate Declaration which states there is no climate emergency and also notes climate models are “not remotely plausible as global tools”.

Scafetta’s latest work grouped 38 major climate models into low, medium and high ECS values, ranging between 1.8°C and 5.7°C. He found that models in the medium and high category “ran hot” in over 95% and 97% of cases respectively. The lower models were said to have done better when compared to global warming calculated for the period by the major surface datasets of 0.52-0.58°C. But the UAH satellite data showed warming up to 30% less during this period, suggesting even the low warming models produced “excessive warming” from 1980-2021.

According to Scafetta, these results are showed that the ECS figure could be as low as 1.2-2°C. Particular concern is expressed about surface temperature records that “appear to be severely affected by non-climatic warming biases”. Scafetta concludes that surface-based temperature records are likely to be affected by warming biases, such as the urban heat island effect due to expanding urban development, and subject to natural oscillations that are not reproduced by climate models. He concludes: “The global warming expected for the next few decades may be even more moderate than predicted by the low ECS-GCMs [Global Circulation Models], and could easily fall within a safe temperature range where climate adaptation policies will suffice.”

Scafetta’s work is vital in providing a realistic insight into the dominant role played by climate models in promoting the command-and-control Net Zero political agenda. Many of the constantly promoted climate thermogeddon scares use forecasts based on high ECS values. The higher values are behind every statement from bureaucrats, politicians, green activists and journalists that we are heading for a 2-3°C increase in global temperature in the near future. In the absence of any definitive ECS figure, these predictions are guesses.

In fact, once the ECS figure falls to around 1°C, it is moving into margin of error territory. However, many scientists have more or less given up trying to calculate ECS, since measuring the non-linear atmosphere is proving as difficult as it ever was. The atmosphere is a chaotic system with many powerful influences reacting unpredictably with each other. The huge heat transfers that obviously have a considerable part to play in climate are far from completely understood. Recent suggestions that modellers can ‘attribute’ single event weather events to human-caused climate change are unprovable, and little more than figments of over-active, agenda-driven imaginations. Furthermore, it is possible that carbon dioxide becomes ‘saturated’ beyond certain levels and its effect as a warming gas rapidly declines.

What we do know is that over the last 20 years, global warming has started to run out of steam. The latest September UAH satellite data, considered in some scientific circles as the most accurate measurement we have, show the current standstill has been extended to eight years. But whereas satellite data are common and invaluable in many geographical fields, these temperature results are less welcome. It is not hard to see why. Scafetta calculates that the results since the start of recordings around 1980 are 30% below surface temperature datasets. As it happens, the two adjustments since 2013 by the U.K.’s Met Office to its HadCRUT global surface temperature record have increased recent warming by a similar amount. Similar upward adjustments are to be found in the other major global datasets. A previous temperature pause from about 1998-2010 is no longer visible in these records.

Claims of ‘record’ heat years and ever higher temperatures are taken exclusively from the surface records. The satellite record is largely ignored. There are even attempts to cancel the inconvenient figures, with Google AdSense recently ‘demonetising’ the site of Dr. Roy Spencer, the Principal Research Scientist at the University of Alabama in Huntsville, one of the main compilers of the UAH satellite record. The record, of course, that is a vital part of Professor Scafetta’s work investigating the accuracy of climate models.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Tags: Climate AlarmismClimate changeClimate EmergencyClimate ModelsGlobal WarmingNet Zero

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

How the EU is Imposing Brutal Online Censorship of ‘COVID-19 Disinformation’ on the Whole World

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

22 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago

More powerful voices for sanity, but ‘Nett Zero’ is a runaway steamroller. It has its own momentum and the lies are stronger than the truth. The only way to stop it is to convince one person at a time. The more people who realise the narrative and the facts don’t join up, will eventually topple this. How much damage will have been done to our society and economies by then though.?

94
-1
rms
rms
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

While I completely agree “the more people who realise the narrative and the facts don’t join up” and I do occasionally find the opportunity to speak with people who “believe” the narrative, I find when I point out the disconnect with the facts/data/reality most people get very angry. Carrying the conversation further, when I try to get a discussion about comparing the risk of what the computer says vs. the risk of what we seem to be doing to mitigate what the computers say about “climate change”, the concept of comparing risk mitigation alternatives goes way over their heads (even though I never use those words).

I fear that depending on convincing one person at a time is not quick enough. I of course am probably wrong.

The issues are unnecessarily, probably deliberately so, conflated. Relies on “I believe” and “Don’t you believe?”.

Last edited 2 years ago by rms
58
-1
ebygum
ebygum
2 years ago
Reply to  rms

Don’t family ties make it worse as well….whether it’s Covid or Climate?…
I never agree with my niece on these two things, she’s a total believer in both, and as much as I love her, she is a fine example of a ‘sheeple’……
I do say what I think, but quietly, and then leave it alone, because I love my sister (her mum) and couldn’t bear a fall-out.
I imagine this scenario is played out all over the country….

68
0
Roy Everett
Roy Everett
2 years ago
Reply to  ebygum

“Family ties” can be a curse when there is a difference between deeply held opinions. It becomes problematic whether or not a family member suffers from mental illness or simply has an eccentric worldview: indeed the difference can sometimes be unascertainable and a matter of convention, religion, or climatism.  In these situations I am reminded of Dinsdale Piranha, who, though a really nice guy (deep down) was episodically convinced he was being stalked by a ten-foot long hedgehog called Spiny Norman. Now imagine the problem facing Dinsdale’s wife. So long as Dinsdale’s position was that he “knows”[1,2] that the hedgehog was imaginary and that he was seeking help, he was merely neurotic, and she could probably cope with Dinsdale, and would be quietly be confident that there is no hedgehog. However, if Dinsdale’s position is that he “knows” that the hedgehog is real, he is psychotic and will believe that he is correct and his wife is either mistaken, stupid or psychotic. His wife now has a dilemma. If she openly denies his reality she will provoke a divorce. If she openly agrees with his reality while privately rejecting it she is colluding in his delusion and will make it worse but will remain sane herself, though at risk of cognitive dissonance. If she herself comes to sincerely believe in the reality of the hedgehog she preserves the relationship but at the expense of becoming brainwashed and will wind up in a happy folie à deux in which both are psychotic and will never recover without external assistance[2]. This process can be extended to groupthink, mass formation and psychotic delirium[3], and applies as much to climate and corona as it does to giant hedgehogs.
There is no happy and healthy relationship between a non-psychotic person and a psychotic person. “It is difficult to get a person to believe something if their marriage depends on not believing it”, as Upton Sinclair nearly said.
[1] Eric Berne: Games People Play
[2] Thomas Anthony Harris: I’m OK – You’re OK
[3] Michael Cook: French philosopher decries corona ‘madness’

2
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago
Reply to  rms

Jonathan Swift: you can’t reason someone out of something they haven’t reasoned themselves into.

Same problem with CoVidians.

36
0
stewart
stewart
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

Covid madness also felt like an unstoppable runaway train at one point.

I trust chipping away at the Net Zero stupidity will work. We have the fact that it is insane and will cause a lot of damage on our side. Like with Covid.

55
-1
ebygum
ebygum
2 years ago
Reply to  stewart

I agree Stewart..those boosters are not flying off the shelf are they? We just have to keep chipping away, as you say…

25
-1
The Dogman
The Dogman
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

I hear you. I was at a corporate Town Hall this week and they were pushing it ridiculously hard. There were so many blatently absurd statistics quoted that I had to leave the room and pretend I needed the loo otherwise I think I might have exploded. And everyone seemed to lap it up. God help us.

36
-1
Dr G
Dr G
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

An example of the problems faced by the “enlightened”.
Good friends of ours, decent people, have purchased an EV.
Do we point out the child labour, Uyghur slave labour, “climate change” garbage to them and destroy the friendship, or allow them to feel they are “saving the planet” and keep on happy terms.
I’m yet to figure that one out.

26
-1
JXB
JXB
2 years ago
Reply to  NeilParkin

The steam roller is about to run out of road particularly when the lights go out.

22
-2
rms
rms
2 years ago
Reply to  JXB

Maybe. I think there is a good chance that when the lights go off the mainstream media, especially BBC, will focus on “victims and their hardships”, recollections of the 1970’s from “old” people who now sort of fondly remember when this happened before, etc. If any connection to “cause” they’ll mention without elaboration “climate change” a few times without touching the true cause(s) of failure to delivery power. They will jump to “solutions” which means more “renewables” and ask why is the government holding back fixing this, looking for those to blame, etc.?

Last edited 2 years ago by rms
5
-1
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago

It would be a surprise if climate model forecasts were any better than weather forecasts when it come to accuracy versus time. https://www.timeanddate.com/weather/forecast-accuracy-time.html might be of interest, but it’s well known that forecasts are guess work after a week or so.

21
-2
Paramaniac
Paramaniac
2 years ago
Reply to  JohnK

Yes, easily debunked by the fact that if mathematical models had ANY predictive powers then someone would have applied them to the stock market and become the richest man (or woman) on planet earth.
That’s not occurred yet for a very good reason, they don’t work.

13
0
The old bat
The old bat
2 years ago

It might be rather unkind, but I really hope we have a particularly nasty winter with plenty of power cuts, because I think that would have some good outcomes, even if it seems like hell at the time. Three that come to mind are;
It will make people question the ideas of net zero and AGW. Especially if MSM starts printing stories of people freezing to death.
It gives people a new focus to take their minds off covid.
It will show the severe limitations of EV’s when people can’t charge them up.
We need people to wake up and get angry, very angry. Mind you, we could all be nuked or broadsided by a massive solar storm as well. I think the world will be a very different place by next spring, assuming we are all still here.

40
-1
Nigel Sherratt
Nigel Sherratt
2 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

The great majority of us will survive even a harsh winter. The most damaging effects are on the poor in developing countries who are denied affordable energy. Botswana is selling coal to Europe at the moment ironically.

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europe-seeks-million-tonnes-per-year-botswana-coal-says-president-2022-05-10/

11
-1
Nigel Sherratt
Nigel Sherratt
2 years ago

Monckton has published a paper (with distinguished colleagues) pointing out that the ECS is miscalculated because the feedback is only applied to the difference between a theoretical earth without an atmosphere and current measurements. His team’s contention (which seems correct) is that the feedback calculation should be based on the whole temperature rise from absolute zero. His flat line calculation (currently no warming for eight years by least squares linear regression) has some value but is partly to have a bit of fun at the expense of the eco-loons.

https://phys.org/news/2015-01-peer-reviewed-pocket-calculator-climate-exposes-errors.html

Last edited 2 years ago by Nigel Sherratt
8
0
Nigel Sherratt
Nigel Sherratt
2 years ago

On Earth Day 2017 weekend seven shots were fired at the NSSTC building at UAH. The eco-loons don’t plan to give up their scam without a fight.

‘A total of seven shots were fired into our National Space Science and Technology Center (NSSTC) building here at UAH over the weekend.
All bullets hit the 4th floor, which is where John Christy’s office is (my office is in another part of the building).’

https://www.drroyspencer.com/2017/04/shots-fired-into-the-christyspencer-building-at-uah/

9
0
Brett_McS
Brett_McS
2 years ago

Prof John Christie put together a chart of the results of running all the major climate model temperature ‘predictions’ starting from the same base at ~1970. All overstated the subsequent temperature record except for the one from Russia, which was pretty well spot on. The Russian computer model is based on zero influence (ECS=0) of CO2.

17
0
JXB
JXB
2 years ago

Anyone following this subject and getting their info from sources other than MSM and Government and Eco-Propaganda, as I have for the last 25 years, will recognise this as old ‘Fake News’.

All the climate models have consistently over-estimated warming compared to reality, the Urban Heat Island effect and the artificial warming bias in the surface record was researched and reported (published) years ago by Anthony Watts. The purported rate of global warming flat-lined after 1996, then about 15 years ago went into slight decline prompting ‘global warming’ (measurable) being abandoned as the war cry to be replaced by climate change (not measurable).

Years ago the Climate Sensitivity was put at around 1C per doubling of CO2, ignoring all other compensating factors which when taken into account meant the warming effect of C02 was approaching zero.

The parallels of the CoVid ‘Science’ and Climate ‘Science’ are irresistible, even now to the point that at last, the ‘not consensus’ are beginning to speak out and report the facts, the uncertainties and irrefutable data from observation which underline the non-evidence based claims.

May we expect grudgingly the MSM and other ‘experts’ to start claiming they knew all along it was a fake and they really never said Mankind was causing global warming/climate change just as so many are lining up to deny they ever said vaccinations were 100% effective, or that lockdowns and masks worked?

Dare we hope we are in the final days of the climate scam and Net Zero?

22
0
allanplaskett
allanplaskett
2 years ago
Reply to  JXB

Dare we hope we are in the final days of the climate scam and Net Zero?

I fear we are in the mere beginning of it. Famine in the sub-Sahara, is coming now, and will produce a great northern march. If we dislike forcible illegal immigration we ain’t seen nuthin’ yet. Climate change, plus historic colonialism, will be blamed for the desperate emigration. The censorship and suppression of debate we have seen so far are a mere foretaste.

3
0
Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
2 years ago

Net Zero is like a false god. Politicians say they believe in it despite all scientific evidence showing the Climate Change agenda is a pack of lies.

Grand ‘Renewables’ Delusion: Hard Reality Keeps Smashing Wind & Solar ‘Transition’ Myth
https://stopthesethings.com/2022/10/08/grand-renewables-delusion-hard-reality-keeps-smashing-wind-solar-transition-myth/
by stopthesethings 

Embrace humanity, Reject the cold anti-human agenda.

 Yellow Boards By The Road  

Monday 10th October 11am to 12pm 
Yellow Boards 
Junction A321 Sandhurst Rd & 
B3016 Finchampstead Rd 
Wokingham RG40 3JS

Wednesday 12th October 11am to 12pm 
Yellow Boards 
Junction A327 Observer Way & 
Reading Rd Arborfield 
Wokingham RG2 9HT

Thursday 13th October 11am to 12pm 
Yellow Boards 
Junction A3095 Warfield Road & 
Harvest Ride Warfield 
Bracknell RG42 2QH

Stand in the Park Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am – make friends & keep sane 

Wokingham 
Howard Palmer Gardens Sturges Rd RG40 2HD   

Bracknell  
South Hill Park, Rear Lawn, RG12 7PA

Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

6
-1
RTSC
RTSC
2 years ago

The Climate Change scam is the UN’s Agenda 2030 in action. The intention is to transfer wealth from the developed, western first world to the undeveloped third world….. to pay for the “original sin” of colonialism.

The likes of China and India, who are ignoring the instruction to cut CO2 and are growing their fossil fuel energy production, are simply exploiting the opportunity it gives them.

The UN is controlling the Agenda. There is no evidence to support it, but (as we have learned from Covid) if any Opposition is silenced and the sheeple are bombarded with fear-based propaganda, they will act as the Praetorian Guard.

6
0

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

Episode 36 of the Sceptic: Karl Williams on Starmer’s Phoney Immigration Crackdown, Dan Hitchens on the Assisted Suicide Bill and Tom Jones on Reform’s Local Council Challenge

by Richard Eldred
16 May 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

US Ends Recommendation of Covid Vaccine Boosters for Most Americans

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

Tommy Robinson to be Released From Prison After High Court Reduces 18-Month Sentence for Contempt of Court

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

21 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

Lucy Connolly Loses Appeal for Early Release From 31-Month Sentence for Southport Tweet

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

20 May 2025
by Julian Mann

Tories Sink to Lowest Ever Poll Rating

43

Lucy Connolly Loses Appeal for Early Release From 31-Month Sentence for Southport Tweet

63

US Ends Recommendation of Covid Vaccine Boosters for Most Americans

25

Tommy Robinson to be Released From Prison After High Court Reduces 18-Month Sentence for Contempt of Court

36

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

16

Is This the Experiment that Started the Pandemic?

21 May 2025
by Will Jones

The National Lottery’s Woke Arts Spending

21 May 2025
by Charlotte Gill

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

20 May 2025
by Julian Mann

EXCLUSIVE: Almost All ‘Extreme’ Temperature Highs in UK Now Being Recorded at Junk Sites with Massive Possible Errors

20 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

Now the Green Blob Starts Fretting About ‘Fuel Poverty’

20 May 2025
by Ben Pile

POSTS BY DATE

October 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Sep   Nov »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

October 2022
M T W T F S S
 12
3456789
10111213141516
17181920212223
24252627282930
31  
« Sep   Nov »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

US Ends Recommendation of Covid Vaccine Boosters for Most Americans

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

Tommy Robinson to be Released From Prison After High Court Reduces 18-Month Sentence for Contempt of Court

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

News Round-Up

21 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

Lucy Connolly Loses Appeal for Early Release From 31-Month Sentence for Southport Tweet

20 May 2025
by Will Jones

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

20 May 2025
by Julian Mann

Tories Sink to Lowest Ever Poll Rating

43

Lucy Connolly Loses Appeal for Early Release From 31-Month Sentence for Southport Tweet

63

US Ends Recommendation of Covid Vaccine Boosters for Most Americans

25

Tommy Robinson to be Released From Prison After High Court Reduces 18-Month Sentence for Contempt of Court

36

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

16

Is This the Experiment that Started the Pandemic?

21 May 2025
by Will Jones

The National Lottery’s Woke Arts Spending

21 May 2025
by Charlotte Gill

How These NHS Apparatchiks Must Hate the Media for Shining a Light on Their Mistreatment of Christian Nurse Jennifer Melle Who Stood Up to Their Trans Dogma

20 May 2025
by Julian Mann

EXCLUSIVE: Almost All ‘Extreme’ Temperature Highs in UK Now Being Recorded at Junk Sites with Massive Possible Errors

20 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

Now the Green Blob Starts Fretting About ‘Fuel Poverty’

20 May 2025
by Ben Pile

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences