The fear-mongering mainstream media lapped up the recent claim that the Arctic was warming four times faster than the rest of the planet. The Financial Times called it the “climate graph of the week”, while the New York Times detected the “definitive sign of climate change”, noting it was higher than the two or three times commonly reported in the past. The Guardian didn’t allow strict accuracy to get in the way, claiming the new data revealed “extraordinary global heating” in the Arctic.
All highly implausible, needless to say. As always, it depends what temperature databases you consult, or don’t consult, how you work out the averages, and what years you pick to produce your final figures. Interestingly, the BBC didn’t take the headline bait. Perhaps an inquiring editor at the Corporation took a look at the accurate and comprehensive satellite temperature record and found the claim difficult, if not impossible, to stand up.
It is generally accepted that the Arctic has warmed about twice as fast in recent times as the rest of the planet. As the Daily Sceptic has reported, there are a number of natural variations that explain temperature fluctuations in the Arctic, a process that is clearly observable in the recent and paleoclimatic record. Antarctica, meanwhile, has seen much less warming over the last 50 years, and the South Pole doesn’t seemed to have warmed much at all. Possibly the BBC felt that upping the Arctic ante to four times was a just a push too far, particularly at a time when the local sea ice has been showing steady gains of late.
The story was based on a recent paper published by a group of Finnish meteorologists. The steer was clear from the title: “The Arctic has warmed nearly four times faster than the globe since 1979.”
Above are the databases and graphic results used in the ‘four times’ calculation. Curiously there is no place for the accurate satellite record produced by the University of Alabama in Huntsville (UAH), despite the satellite record also starting in 1979. ERA5 is a climate model. The other three are surface datasets, which as we have shown are subject to frequent, back-dated upwards temperature adjustments. Surface measurements across the Arctic are patchy in many areas, since sea ice is not a stable base for permanent devises. Weather satellites provide an almost complete coverage of the globe.
Here is the Alabama satellite graph.
It is clear that much less warming is shown by the satellite record. It is also clear from the surface graph why the start date of 1979 was chosen, since that is a convenient low point in the recent record. The anomaly in both cases is the deviation from the average over a 30-year period. The Finnish writers use what they call a “standard” 30-year period of 1981-2010, but it is pertinent to ask, why stop at 2010 when another 10 years of relevant records are available? The UAH satellite record uses the 1990-2020 anomaly calculation.
It seems Arctic temperature is one of the last frontiers in the fading battle to promote alarm and hysteria about global warming. Warming across most of the globe ran out of steam over 20 years ago. According to the satellite record, any recent Arctic rise is fading fast. In fact, the Arctic has often displayed wild temperature swings over short periods in the past, due to a unique set of geographical circumstances. The paleoclimate record shows numerous 1,500-year cycles when temperatures suddenly rise by up to 10oC over a few decades. Since the early 19th century, observations and scientific measurements have tracked large increases and reductions in the sea ice across the Arctic. In addition, the area is subject to regular ocean oscillations – the Atlantic Multidecadal and Pacific Decadal – that pump warmer waters into the region on a regular basis. The last high point, with considerable loss of ice, was in the 1930s.
It is early days, but the Arctic seems to be following this regular pattern with news that seas ice during this summer is not far off the 1981-2010 average, and well above the recent low point of 2012. The No Tricks Zone science site reports that the sea ice extent in mid-August is at a 12-year high. There is plenty of science around to suggest there is no need to be unduly worried by recent weather events and climate trends.
But then, that doesn’t sell newspapers or promote Net Zero fantasies.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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It seems that the police are suffering from the wider malaise that has become almost the norm – that the biggest turds have risen to the top of the shit-heap. It’s an intensification of a general old management problem that has now gone critical.
We see it everywhere, but particularly in politics, academia, schools and in the management of the NHS.
… and in that sense it wasn’t ‘ever thus’ to this degree.
Hooray for young people who may not be gathering for reasons of political ideology but good for them anyway.
Is there anybody out there who used to organise rural raves back in the 90’s and beyond ?
These you will remember were pop-up outdoor music parties attended by many hundreds who would meet in various locations (motorway service area car parks being a favorite) with nobody knowing the actual location until the last minute so as to foil the Police who thought it important to close down kids having a good time in an empty field and all without the benefit of the internet.
Successful events would last overnight and sometimes into the following day.
I think Biker (knownasbiker) over on the swamp used to and looks like he is thinking of starting again.
This sums up our situation perfectly
Talk about doublespeak. By ‘antisocial behaviour’ they mean ‘social behaviour’.
There is something seriously wrong with a regime that defines antisocial behaviour as a group of young people getting together to have a good time. Even Professor Fuckwit will agree that young people have zero risk of contracting covid. Don’t tell me that they go home and give it to granny. Any self respecting granny would be out with them if they weren’t behind bars in a care home.
Just listening to the Good Friday meditation from Canterbury cathedral and reflecting that if Jesus and the disciples, gathered in the garden of Gethsemane, were to teleport to the UK here today, they would be nicked once again.
LS 14th Sept. 2020
How many fines or people arrested outside Batley School this week
Steyn yet again sums up the utterly self defeating attempts of the UK police to bully the law abiding.
( There will be no attempt to enforce this in the edgier housing estates, vibrant communities or Pikey encampments)
“ ‘In Britain, everything is policed except crime’
It has become very apparent that British policemen are very aggressive when dealing with the passive, and very passive when dealing with the aggressive.”
We watched a two-part documentary on police in Manchester dealing with organised crime gangs.
They nicked one guy on suspicion of kidnap and assault. He was seriously mouthing off and threatening the police in the custody suite. They all just stood well back from him as he stormed about making his threats.
I couldn’t help but think that if he’d been a 47 year old man who’d lost his business and was peacefully protesting in Trafalgar Square it would have ended up very different.
As the flu season comes to an end our autocratic government turns up the heat.
It’s time for the younger generation to push back or be suffocated.
Off topic but relevant.
I’ve just had a phone call from my 21 year old granddaughter. She had just been in contact with a friend of hers from university who told her that another girl she had worked with had just passed away after suffering a stroke (caused by a blood clot).
The girl in question had returned home from university about 2 weeks ago when she had the AZ vaccine.
The vaccine passport requirement is putting pressure on ALL people – young and old – to take this vaccine. It needs to stop.
I 100% agree Mayo. A sad story. These vaccines are for emergency use for the hyper-vulnerable (if they want them) – but the goalposts shift and will end up with newborns being jabbed ‘incase they infect granny’ if we’re not careful
The reservations about the snake-oil apply as much to the vulnerable as anyone else.
Very sad but why would a 21yo (presumably) have had a vaccine since that age group have not yet been ‘offered’ it ?
Healthy young people receiving Covid vaccine in parts of …https://www.theguardian.com › world › jan › healthy-y…
Okey dokey, market rules then.
Ffs. Why on earth shouldn’t people gather. The old, the vulnerable and the cretins have all had the marvelous vaccine. No one else is of any higher risk from Covid than they would be of anything else. So why the actual fuck should anyone give a toss. And why would we ‘blow it’. How? And if the vaccine’s so shit that we have to be locked down forever why the fuck do they want a passport to prove you’re still about to drop dead from the deadly virus. This is driving me insane. Why are people so absolutely moronic as to believe any of this shit any more. Thank god for this site and left lockdown sceptics and the very very few other sensible people still left.
lockdown for a year and relentless propaganda has driven the population hysterical
when you look at nazi germany and say ‘it couldnt happen here’ – well it could and it has and we know who would have done it. A big lie repeated enough and some people will accept anything including a mass vaccination of children with something straight out of the lab
I don’t really understand the basis of this, are we now making up laws on the hoof to crush any normal human behaviour? Oh wait, that’s been going on over a year already. Where is the legal system hiding?
Dear Police and Government,
If you don’t want people to gather and socialise and have fun outside in parks and on beaches then open the pubs and the bars and the clubs.
Problem solved.
Too easy? Doesn’t fit with the mysterious and nefarious agenda?
I see. And so do many others.
“the police are operating as gatekeepers of rather than facilitators to lawful protest.” (Source: https://threader.app/thread/1377951144446689281)
After 72 years, I truly do not recognise my country any more and as for the majority of my fellow countrymen and women: DON’T GET ME STARTED!!!
Do the gestapo police now have the authority to make up bans as & when they want? Am I presume that as government ‘restrictions’ are lifted, the unelected are bringing in their ‘restrictions’ to replace them? People in the UK think dictatorships in other countries are reprehensible but fail to see we are under the most despicable and draconian restrictions in the world in this country. We have labelled anti social distancing as ‘social’ and now NOT breaking the law is anti-social? The police are unable to police so they just criminalise everyone by default., They should direct themselves at tackling real crime but I think they prefer to appear in reality TV shows or Haribo adverts. Not fit for purpose.
Treat people like kids and they’ll act like kids. Stop all this nanny state BS NOW!
If you don’t want the gestapo to ‘confiscate’ your legal alcoholic beverage try decanting it. There are some excellent bottles around that keep drinks cold for hours.
Get stuffed Handjob. You blew it months ago!
Where is LS disgust at this. Why is TY and the gang just reporting on this as if this is in any way acceptable? For what reason are these gatherings a risk. Okay, these young kids were being tested every two days. They have been gathering in school for the past two weeks. You top story admits this has had ZERO EFFECT on infections. So why the fuck would gathering over a park (as opposed to indoors) be more of a risk. Take away my alcohol well good luck with that. Please come and try and take away my drink. I really hope pain is something you enjoy!!
Where is LS disgust at this. Why is TY and the gang just reporting on this as if this is in any way acceptable?
That’s what we Swamp-dwellers keep asking!
This week we have seen an increase in antisocial behaviour as people gather in large groups and are hostile towards our officers who attempt to engage with them and explain the coronavirus legislation
Politely telling the interfering cops to F.Off is presumably anstisocial behaviour?
I would like to reassure the public that you will see an increased police presence in the area
Reassure? FFS!!!
The only anti social morons are the Thugs in Uniform. When it a “crime” to meet your mates it proves that we are no longer civilised and live in a fascist police state.