A new poll by Tory Party website ConservativeHome has seen previous frontrunner Penny Mordaunt dramatically replaced by Kemi Badenoch, the anti-woke and pro-free speech candidate, and with a huge lead of 11%. This is significant because those polled are the Conservative Party members who will elect the winner out of the shortlist of two sent over by MPs. Fraser Nelson at the Spectator has more.
“Mordaunt’s ship is becalmed,” says Paul Goodman in the ConHome analysis. She led Badenoch by 46% to 40% in an either-or poll last Tuesday. But in this different poll (with all five candidates [and four days later, after a lot of negative coverage for Penny in the Conservative press]) she’s on just 18%, with Liz Truss second at 21% and Badenoch quite clearly ahead on 31%.
The bookmakers are still betting that Tory MPs will not let Badenoch get to the final two (below) and you can certainly see why. At this stage, much is decided on backroom deals and horse-trading, neither of which are Badenoch’s speciality. She’s no Francis Urquhart, but she is more direct, which is perhaps the quality about her that Tory activists like.
This seems to vindicate Kemi’s decision not to pull out and back Truss, though whether at this stage she can defeat the momentum building behind Truss as the ‘the right-wing candidate’ is unclear.
But frankly, if the Tories elect Penny ‘trans women are women, testosterone is evil‘ Mordaunt to lead them then they deserve every kicking they get at the next election.
Worth reading in full.