There have been nearly 6,500 more deaths than usual in England and Wales from causes other than COVID-19 in the eight weeks since April 23rd, the latest data from the Office for National Statistics (ONS) show.
The weekly ONS mortality report shows that in the week ending June 17th 2022 there were 1,444 deaths registered above the five-year average, which is 15.4% above average. Of these, 264 involved COVID-19 and 161 were due to COVID-19 (where COVID-19 was recorded as the underlying cause of death on the death certificate), leaving 1,283 from underlying causes other than Covid. Added to the number of non-Covid excess deaths from the previous seven weeks gives a cumulative total of 6,466 deaths above average with an underlying cause other than COVID-19 registered since April 23rd 2022.
The chart below from the ONS depicts the data since the start of the pandemic, though note that the deaths involving COVID-19 in blue overstate the number of Covid deaths, particularly since the arrival of the Omicron variant, as they include those from a different underlying cause.
The spike in non-Covid excess deaths over the last two months coincides with the spring rollout of fourth doses to the over-75s, which began around the end of March.
To help visualise this, I have plotted the cumulative number of booster doses distributed to over-75s in England during the spring booster campaign (blue) and the cumulative number of non-Covid excess deaths in England and Wales (orange) since the week ending March 25th. The correlation is striking. Note that we would expect a lag between vaccine doses and deaths due to vaccine injuries both because death following an adverse event is not always immediate and because of death registration delays. The dip in deaths in the week ending June 3rd is owing to bank holidays affecting registrations.
Here are the data used for the chart, which come from the ONS and UKHSA.
The UKHSA has registered around 4 million booster doses distributed to over-75s since March 21st up to June 19th. If all the non-Covid excess deaths were in the over-75s and caused by the vaccines this would be a rate of around one death per 600 doses – though that is an upper limit as some of the non-Covid excess deaths are in under-75s (around 80% of the non-Covid excess deaths in May were in the over-75s and 20% in the under-75s) and not all will necessarily be due to vaccine injury. Some will be due to the problems accessing healthcare during the pandemic, which are ongoing.
If vaccine injuries are playing a significant part in the non-Covid deaths this spring we should see non-Covid mortality return to closer to normal levels over the next few weeks now that the spring booster campaign is winding down.
This post has been updated to use vaccine figures specific to the spring booster campaign.
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Deaths up. Births down. That would make for a successful campaign, if you were a sociopathic billionaire who hated humanity.
Safe and effective
Are all of the excess deaths in the 75+ age range?
What needs to be acknowledged is that people cannot access 999 ambulances, with Cat 2 (stroke, heart attack) response time being significantly longer than the 17 minute target. Cat 1 (cardiac arrest or other immediate life or limb threatening) response time significantly longer than the 7 minute target. Who can forget the 90+ year old who called 999 three times pleading for help, he eventually died when he may have survived had he got to hospital.
Ambulances are queuing for hours outside A&E waiting to hand over patients to overcrowded departments. (This is not a new phenomenon {Collis, J. (2010). Adverse effects of overcrowding on patient experience and care. Emergency Nurse, 18(8), 34-39} it was the case when I left the ED in 2013, but has got worse).
Patients waiting in A&E for beds and subsequent treatment on specialist wards.
People attending A&E inappropriately as they cannot see their own GP, again not a new problem, but has worsened over the past 30 months.
Patients who not been able to see specialist physicians or surgeons in a timely manner, stage 1 treatable cancer becoming stage 4 untreatable cancer.
Alzheimer patients deteriorating rapidly due to isolation.
Yes, some of the excess deaths could be due to the vaccine, but why would the fourth vaccination suddenly cause a problem when the previous three didn’t in the 75+ age group?
6,500. Or 0.01% of the population.
I suppose the covid scare was orchestrated around the presentation of death figures completely out of context.
But I didn’t bite then, and I’m not biting now.
I don’t think the excess mortality will drop to zero any time soon. The excess deaths in the first quarter of next year will be interesting.
It is interesting to see the precise Spring booster numbers above.
Plotting the ONS death occurrences for England and Wales by date of death occurrence from ONS’s weekly publication yesterday (data is in tab 11 of the Deaths registered weekly in England and Wales provisional dataset) gives the following chart.
Ignore the last few weeks as occurred deaths in the last few weeks are affected by inaccurate estimates of deaths that have occurred but not yet been reported. But before that most deaths that have occurred will have been reported. So this is solid data that takes out the affect of reporting delays including different bank holiday reporting patterns.
The temporal association between the Spring booster programme and the rise in all cause deaths above the 2015-2019 average is very strong. All cause deaths rise noticeably above the 2015-2019 in the week ending 1st April 2022. Association isn’t causation, but apply the Bradford-Hill criteria to look at the association and you have a very strong hypothesis that there is a causal link.
All cause deaths in England and Wales do seem to be returning to the 5 year average now.
And the same chart but just covering weeks 1 to 24 of 2022.
All cause England and Wales deaths are around the 2015-2019 in the week ending 25th March (actually 2.5% above), but it’s the week ending 1st April 2022 where the significant increase starts and deaths are 6.9% above the average, and then 14.5% above the following week.
And the full chart showing the percentage that all cause deaths are above the 2015-2019 average (i.e. what percentage the green line is above the blue line in the previous chart)
The one thing that is virtually impossible to hide, is deaths.
That should get those waiting lists down!