Numerous polls since mid February have found that a sizeable majority of Russians support the war in Ukraine – the so-called “special military operation”. For example, in poll taken 25–27th February, the Russian Public Opinion Research Center found that 68% of respondents supported the war, compared to only 22% opposed.
It should be noted that the Russian Public Opinion Research Center is state-controlled. Yet independent organisations have documented similar levels of support. According to surveys carried out by the respected Levada Center, approval of Vladimir Putin rose sharply from 71% to 83% between early February and early March:
However, it’s still possible that support for the war is overstated. After all, respondents might be scared to reveal their true beliefs, even in ostensibly ‘anonymous’ surveys. Since the war began, Russian authorities have arrested thousands of people for taking part in public protests.
A new survey demonstrates that support for the war likely is overstated, though still very substantial. Philipp Chapkovski and Max Schaub conducted what’s called a ‘list experiment’ – a method designed to gauge public opinion on issues where people might not be willing to reveal their true beliefs. Here’s how it works.
You divide your sample in two at random: half of respondents read a list of three statements, and the other half read a list of four statements (the three original statements, plus a fourth). The fourth statement corresponds to the issue you’re interested in, while the other three correspond to different issues.
Below is an image from Chapkovski and Schaub’s survey, for illustration. Half of respondents saw the list on the left, and the other half saw the list on the right. They were asked to say how many of the statements they supported (but not which ones). Note: only the list on the left includes the statement “Actions of Russian armed forces in Ukraine”.
By compring the average number of statements selected by the two groups of respondents, the researchers were able to estimate support for the war in Ukraine without asking directly. For example, if the average in the left-hand group was 2.5, and the average in the right-hand group was 2, it could be inferred that 50% of respondents support the war.
This is more or less what the researchers found, as shown in the chart below. Note: they also included a question directly asking respondents about their support for the war, in order to estimate the degree of bias in opinion polls.
In the list experiment, support for the war was 53%, compared to 68% when asking directly. This suggests that opinion polls overstate support for the way by about 15 percentage points. But it also suggests that support for the war is substantial even after correcting for biased responding.
And note: highly educated Russians, as well as those living in urban areas, were overrepresented in Chapkovski and Schaub’s sample. Since such individuals are more liberal than average, and hence less likely to support the war, 53% constitutes a lower bound for the true level of support.
Overall, it seems that most Russians do support the war, although their level of support is somewhat overstated in opinion polls.
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This is so retro-cool….deja vu all over again….2005…..Great!….Not…….
Is Gordon Brown going to make a come back as well?
Farage’s first speech: ‘Mr Speaker….Who are you?’
Private Fraser knew a thing or two.
“…but anyone who didn’t see this coming has more subsidies than sense.”
It’s what our American cousins call bait and switch.
Congestion charge, ULEZ are huge revenue sources for the Council to provide cash to splurge on bribes and insane initiatives and projects.
Then there is the loss of Excise Duty and VAT on fuel and Road Fund Licence revenue to be replaced when/if motorists switch to BEVs.
The latter has already been addressed with BEV owners having to pay Road Fund Licence after 12 months.
They can look forward to either pay-per-mile or taxes on their electricity charges.
Poor wee lambs.
Just wrote near on the same as you
They already pay 20% VAT on away from home charging, but with the type of metering required they could increase that at home as well for many of the EV owners, instead of 5% on whatever charge rate they use. Technically possible for special rates to be applied at certain purposes and times of day as well (not that I’m advocating the use of “smart” meters etc).
Don’t forget Excise Duty. VAT is recoverable for VAT registered businesses but not Excise Duty which makes up a substantial part of tax revenue from motor fuels.
When all business vehicles are electric (Grin.), the Exchequer will have to make up that loss somehow.
Did Quentin Wilson and all the other ev evangelist believe their private slice of tax payer subsides were going to stretch on indefinitely?
And.. they’ll have to pay full road tax this year too! ..And, pay per mile in the near future, thats what all those cameras are for!
How do these net zero braindeads think you pay for infrastructure?..pixie wishes and fairy dust!
“thats what all those cameras are for!”
You know the £37 billion “spaffed” on Track and Trace? Well here is where it went.
Ha. Ha. Ha.
Worst air in London
The sooner we get regular power cuts, the better. Let the anger build up.
They call it pushing the envelope. They push and if they meet no resistance they push some more. If resistance comes they pull back a bit and then attack with renewed ferocity. Rather like a constrictor snake or the WHO. We seem to exist in the naive world of little victories and such a view entirely misreads the nature of a predatory system.
Just like the Constrictor snake they do speak in forked tongues!
Which raises the question: will TfL apply such charges to buses and cabs as well? Many of those have changed to electric, so they probably won’t like it either, except by increasing the fares etc to cover it.
Don’t you worry they will be sticking a meter on your mouth soon. You had better start practicing yoga or chi kung or such like because every breath is going to cost you. And you have a bloody cheek whingeing given that you are lucky to be alive after the release of the bioweapon. If you buy an appliance and you see the word ‘smart’ in the schtick then it is probably best to avoid it. Just like it is better not to use cards when paying for things. I’ve even seen people in shops paying for things with their phones which seems crazy to me.
More should join ABD Alliance for British drivers. If they start handing out AK47S I’m up for that because things are going to get serious.
UK Column did a good segment on Wednesday’s show about the Constitution and the importance of Jury Nullification. Jurors have an absolute right to acquit a defendant according to their conscience. This lately has been used by JSO but a stopped clock is right twice per day:https://defendourjuries.org/
I never stopped loving my diesel.
We’ll be using oil for a long, long, long time to come.
I forget his name some American academic who wrote a book about how these restrictions on pollution (designed to target industry) – they are always designed to keep the population in check and to keep the disparity between their wealth and ours. It is deeper than just global warming. It sounds rather bleak but they really have an agenda to wipe us all out.
As EV’s are as toxic as hell, I would charge them more.
England has promised to be the first and foremost so it is good to see the English taking charge, The sort of people who did well in their A levels and went to university in England. I can see it now the whole picture. At the time I thought otherwise and they thought otherwise. England will always be a wild land regardless of London. And people in other countries take inspiraton from our ripping up of ULEZ cameras.
My old man said follow the (Mili)band and don’t dilly dally on the way.
Off when went me meter with me old readings on it.
In came the smart one with dynamic pricing innit.
But I dillied and dallied, dallied and dillied
Lost me way and voted for the reds.
Well you can’t trust the labour with your bread and honey
When you cannot heat your home.
…and full excise duty coming for BEV owners next year too!
Recent measurements by Brown Car Guy, indicate that the most polluted transport in London is the Tube system, where air quality is miles higher than the alleged “Limit” for roads. Khan is undoubtedly aware of this but the Tube is not closed down. This is a case of massive “doublethink” for political reasons!
“Policies are intended to clear the roads and transform society….”
We know that’s the plan. They’ve made no attempt to hide it; in fact they’re crowing about it.
I have no sympathy for the fools who were suckered into getting an EV thinking they were safe and wouldn’t be made to pay for the “crime” of owning a car. They’re not; they’re no safer than the rest of us who have a bit more common sense and are refusing to meekly go along with the coercion.
Well, duh. It’s called a congestion charge – not an emission charge. They have been very honest from the start of the green agenda, and there is no need to invoke conspiracy theory. But there’s none so visually impaired as those who will not see, as they say.