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Neil Ferguson’s Modelling that Led to Britain’s First Lockdown Based on ‘Inaccurate’ Case Data

by Toby Young
28 February 2022 9:00 AM

Professor Lockdown’s modelling team did not have accurate Covid case numbers, and were unsure of hospitalisation and death rates when they published their models suggesting that more than 500,000 people could die if Britain took no action in the first wave of the pandemic, it has emerged after the Telegraph got hold of SAGE minutes with an FOI request. Sarah Knapton, the paper’s Science Editor, has more.

On March 16 2020, Imperial College published its ‘Report 9’ paper suggesting that failing to take action could overwhelm the NHS within weeks and result in hundreds of thousands of deaths.

Before the paper, the UK coronavirus strategy was to flatten the peak rather than suppress the wave, but after the modelling was made public, the Government made a rapid u-turn, which eventually led to lockdown on March 23rd.

However SPI-M (Scientific Pandemic Influenza Group on Modelling) minutes released to the Telegraph under a Freedom of Information request show that by March 16, modellers were still “uncertain” of case numbers “due to data limitations”.

The minutes show that members were waiting for comprehensive mortality data from Public Health England (PHE) and said that current best estimates for the infection fatality rate, hospitalisation rates, and the number of people needing intensive care were still uncertain.

They also believed that modelling only showed “proof of concept” that lockdowns could help, and warned that “further work would be required”.

The team was also encouraged to look for collaborators and resources outside of the infectious diseases network.

Imperial College held a press briefing about its model on the afternoon of March 16th, and on the same day, Boris Johnson ordered the public to avoid pubs, restaurants and non-essential contact and work from home if possible.

At the briefing, Prof Ferguson told journalists that the new conclusions had been reached because “the last few days” had provided “refinements” in the estimates of intensive care demand and hospital surge capacity.

But the minutes now show that SPI-M did not believe the data were complete.

Worth reading in full.

And if you can’t get past the Telegraph’s pay wall, MailOnline has published its own version of the story.

Stop Press: Carl Heneghan tells Julia Hartley-Brewer that the Imperial College modelling team’s mistakes were “inexcusable”.

An Imperial College report shows Covid modelling that took the UK into the first lockdown in March 2020 was based on inaccurate data.

Evidence Based Medicine Professor Carl Heneghan: "Fundamentally something has to change because this is inexcusable."@JuliaHB1 | @carlheneghan pic.twitter.com/1RFCDPl8Np

— TalkTV (@TalkTV) February 28, 2022
Tags: ModellingNeil FergusonReport 9

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120 Comments
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Lockdown Sceptic
Lockdown Sceptic
3 years ago

Bank Accounts Seized, Proof COVID Was a Trojan Horse

The Plandemic Enters Final Stage, Real Purpose Exposed
Analysis by Dr. Joseph Mercola
https://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2022/02/28/plandemic-purpose-exposed.aspx

This isn’t over

Tuesday 1st March 2pm to 3pm 
Yellow Boards
Junction of A329 London Road & Fernbank Rd, 
Winkfield Row, 
Ascot SL5 8ED  

Stand in the Park Sundays from 10am – make friends & keep sane 
Wokingham Howard Palmer Gardens Cockpit Path car park Sturges Rd RG40 2HD  

Telegram http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell

22
-3
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago

Garbage in + garbage modelling[*] = Great Reset out.

[*] And yes, I’ve reviewed, compiled and run ICL’s March 2020 era code as published on Github. It’s truly, genuinely appalling – it would be comedically so except for the consequences that it had.

[UPDATE] Fill your boots, it’s still there. https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim

Note that the single solitary test wasn’t added until April 2020. https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/commits/master/tests/integration-test.py

Last edited 3 years ago by Rogerborg
29
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Marcus Aurelius knew
Marcus Aurelius knew
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

But what you’re looking at isn’t even the original codebase in use by ICL. It is a refactored (tidied) version produced by Microsoft engineers.

To this day, ICL have not released the original. Because they can’t, it’s such a mess.

17
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Marcus Aurelius knew

So a hack-it-till-it-compiles amateur decides to use C++ to code with?

5
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Marcus Aurelius knew
Marcus Aurelius knew
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Pretty much. And not just one amateur. And not just one language.

3
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Marcus Aurelius knew

I really think they didn’t even have a clue how much they didn’t know.

5
0
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Notionally C++ although much of it is, or reads like, plain old C. There are some pushes where they grapple with futuristic concepts like separating interface and implementation.

https://github.com/mrc-ide/covid-sim/commit/67ef13bfcb73a184e062fb9f38d245b76c66850f

Last edited 3 years ago by Rogerborg
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  Marcus Aurelius knew

I believe that’s the original, while this is the “refactored” version: https://github.com/ImperialCollegeLondon/covid19model

Hmm, it turns out it was all initially pushed on April 22nd, with the single test in place. It may have been sanitised before then, but it’s still in a shocking state, and Pantsdown et all continued to push to it after that.

2
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JeremyP99
JeremyP99
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

Reminiscent of some of the coding for climate change models that got leaked with the Climategate letters. I looked at one chunk, and the guy caught an error, and then just left it to process as it had not been an error. And comments such as “I don’t know what I’m doing here” (the code was so bad that was already obvious).

7
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

The thing is, that’s honest and expected, even for professional coders. Software tends to be hacky and do-it-twice rather than do-it-right. It’s only when it moves into real world firmware that things get serious, e.g. aviation, some process control, and nuclear – when I worked in the later, the entire code base was line-printed off and each line was individually initialled by a chartered engineer.

But if shutting down half the world, imprisoning people in their homes, and tearing up liberties and proportionality isn’t mission critical, I don’t know what is.

6
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annicx
annicx
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

How are these people still a thing? Seriously- can you imagine them pitching to a private client or applying for real jobs with their track record? Yet, here they are, still lauded, still paid and no doubt preparing their next cataclysmic balls up. It beggars belief that they aren’t all at least unemployed if not bankrupt or in jail.

1
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karenovirus
karenovirus
3 years ago

This is news?
It’s so common knowledge as to be not worth discussing.

Last edited 3 years ago by karenovirus
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MikeHaseler
MikeHaseler
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Do you know they were until very late predicting a June peak (as given by Cummings in evidence to the select committee). No one wants to talk about that monumental failure … which I think is the single biggest cause of the headless chicken panic response which occurred when they finally realised (probably late March early April) that the peak was coming in days and not months.

10
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeHaseler

What peak?

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Aletheia of Oceania
Aletheia of Oceania
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

The Midazolam peak.

16
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Will
Will
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeHaseler

The “peak” was between the 13th and 16th of March 2020. We knew this from the middle of April 2020 when deaths started falling away quite rapidly. The arrogant pricks tried to maintain it was NPIs that caused it but it was endemic equilibrium being naturally achieved before we even knew the virus was here.

13
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  karenovirus

Anybody thinking this story is newsworthy on a site such as DS must have been on another planet these last two years.

11
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Ron Smith
Ron Smith
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Yup they should be discussing how they are to be brought to justice!

11
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BeBopRockSteady
BeBopRockSteady
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

I think the revelation is the evidence that they knew it was bollocks and did it anyway. It had holes all over it, however these minutes show they openly admitted it so. Other priorities took hold of course.

8
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E Gold
E Gold
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Hmmm, yes and those wild speculations probably had nothing to do with BMGF funding of Imperial College that everyone here will be aware of. RKJ’s book goes into it in detail but left my copy at a friend’s house so here is an article found on search for those who need a catch up
https://nationalfile.com/gates-foundation-funded-both-imperial-college-and-ihme-failed-model-makers/

5
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Bolloxed Britannia
Bolloxed Britannia
3 years ago

“Inaccurate data”… Contrived malevolant bollox in, cotrived malevolant bollox out!
Wakey wakey.

22
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  Bolloxed Britannia

Indeed.

6
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Joe 90
Joe 90
3 years ago

..

794d4b2b7adc9bd3ef443ed06d14d46a.png
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Joe 90

pay no price?

They get rewarded for the false prediction as it funnels money to their backers. Reality has nothing to do with “The Science”.

14
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JeremyP99
JeremyP99
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

That’s “paid” you are talking about. Mr. Sowell is talking about the price they pay, not what they are paid. Non sequitur, however true it may be. Sorry, English language pedant.

2
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TheJamFan
TheJamFan
3 years ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

Mr Sowell? That’s Professor Sowell to you.

Yours, a fellow pedant.

0
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DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  Joe 90

Like it !!

0
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annicx
annicx
3 years ago
Reply to  Joe 90

I’ve been arguing this for the best part of 40 years- civil servants, politicians, etc. never have to pay and almost never take the blame. I ran a garage and if someone made a mistake it cost us and more importantly it was crucial that we got to the bottom of it and found out who had done what. The customer was king and they were well within their rights to point the finger and go somewhere else, but of course we can’t do that- not only do these people get off scott free- the cronies they use do so as well, all paid for by us. The public sector is a very expensive joke at our considerable expense

1
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ellie-em
ellie-em
3 years ago

It has all been as the bard of Avon would say ‘Much ado about nothing’. There has been plenty of misunderstandings, misdirection, misinformation and deception – but  alas, very little comedy – in the covid worldwide production. Rotten cast…

6
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  ellie-em

Deception, betrayal, incompetent law enforcement, reputations destroyed by bad faith accusations, and a death count much lower than first believed.

But, sorry, you were saying something about a fictional play?

11
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Aletheia of Oceania
Aletheia of Oceania
3 years ago
Reply to  ellie-em

A cast of amateurs, and a wunch of bankers.

6
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JaneDoeNL
JaneDoeNL
3 years ago

What?? You’re telling us that decisions to take draconian measures that affected hundreds of millions of people across the world, destroyed economies, caused untold psychological damage, caused ongoing physical problems due to denial of medical treatment, were based on sketchy data, no actual tests, no knowledge of what we were dealing with, measures that were known to have failed time and again in the past (lockdowns, masks) and some fancy computer models that said all of the foregoing lack of data was irrelevant? Cause computer said ‘yes’

Next you’re going to tell us that hundreds of millions of people were injected with a chemical substance for which it was known it would not work, it would not stop the virus from spreading and which for 30 years was deemed too dangerous to be used and was always going to end up causing far, far more harm than any so-called benefit it might have. Surely not?

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MikeHaseler
MikeHaseler
3 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

Forget the numbers …. they predicted it would peak in June … when all the data worldwide showed the rate of growth meant it had to peak in April. You could literally ask a schoolkid to plot the graph on a log-time plot and they would have predicted the peak would be in April. It was obvious to anyone who was actually looking at the real data … not obsessed with models that had failed time and time and time again.

15
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Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

SARS-CoV2 Love is in the air, everywhere I look around…

loviisinthe air.jpg
6
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

I honestly wonder if Pantsdown would have been able to slither back into positions of significance if his paramour had been a munter.

4
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

By any stretch Ferguson is a sinner and a boring bastard to boot so his piece of fluff was either attracted by a large lunch box or his bank balance.

1
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DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Or dazzled by his intellect? 🤣🤣🤣

0
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JohnMcCarthy
JohnMcCarthy
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

Definitely punching above his weight.

1
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DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

But the tosser didn’t step down

0
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RW
RW
3 years ago
Reply to  JaneDoeNL

In addition to that, he (Ferguson) is also telling that he believes he got everything basically right and that not doing anything had never been an option. And that his honest and very successful attempts to save the UK and world from certain disaster had turned him into a kind of marmite-figure, ie someone some people just love to have despite they have every reason to be grateful instead. That would be an outstanding example of the so-called Dunning-Kruger-effect in action: The guy is so out of touch with reality that he doesn’t even realize that he blew it big time and with catastrophical consequences whenever someone let him.

I think a frozen marmite statue of him should be created to commemorate his valuable services and then be placed in the sun. It will soon collapse into a shapeless blobb and eventually, rot away in a very smelly way. It should come with an inscription like That’s how a world-renowned disease theoretician looks like when he accidentally gets out into the real world.

Would be very fitting.

Last edited 3 years ago by RW
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Occams Pangolin Pie
Occams Pangolin Pie
3 years ago

The Daily Telegraph’s suddenly curious Science Editor writes:

But the minutes now show that SPI-M did not believe the data were complete.

Presumably the minutes always showed this.

54
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MikeHaseler
MikeHaseler
3 years ago

A bigger scandal, is why they insisted covid would initially peak in June, months later than the actual peak in April, which even a schoolboy plotting the data on a log-time graph could see was going to peak in April as by that time the whole UK population would have been infected.

When added to the January assessment that covid was “very low risk” and their assertion that “Track and trace will stop it” … when it was clearly going through all attempts to stop it like a hot knife through warm butter, there utterly incompetent forecast that the peak would not come till June turned what should have been a reasonable degree of concern about an unknown flu bug, into the headless chicken panic which SAGE, the Government and the press never recovered from.

The people responsible should be in jail for criminal incompetence for the panic that led to e.g. old people with covid being sent to old people’s homes to infect so many vulnerable people.

16
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The Rule of Pricks
The Rule of Pricks
3 years ago

Ive said it many times here that is NOT how you model anything – the financial markets, the weather, anything!

Sure make assumptions at the beginning if you need to to but firstly a model is worthless without any backtesting and should be dismissed off hand until backtesting shows you have confidence in the model.

Secondly run the model, and rerun it over and over again. Every week/day/hou as is necessary and each time refine it.

Thirdly make substantive changes when real world data to input is available and when real world results do not match what the model predicted.

Then and and only then can anyone clam that the models are reasonably robust and worth the paper/code they are written on.

The problem here is that Ferguson et al DO NOT KNOW HOW TO MODEL!

A bit like taking your car in to be repaired and seeing someone who has absolutely no idea how an engine works and then expecting to drive away in in fixed!

If Ferguson is an example of what epidemiologists know about modelling then he has completely discredited his whole cohort. We would have been much better off getting the analysts in the City or meteorologists producing results as even if they know nothing about viruses they KNOW HOW TO MODEL.

The ineptitude is staggering!

32
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

Bingo. As noted above, it beggars belief that the original ICL fantasy simulator had no tests when it was used to trigger the March 2020 wrecking of Western economies and tearing up liberties.

None. Zero. Absolutely zilch. No unit tests, no regression. One single solitary “integration” test was belatedly added in April 2020, but all it does it to verify that the original model is accidentally random when run on multiple cores. No, not “stochastic”, as ICL claimed: the same input and same pseudo-random seed produced different outputs on repeated runs.

Their response: “Oh, just run it repeatedly, then throw away the results that you don’t want.”

And on this shakiest of pegs, we hung global destruction and despotism.

25
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huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

“And on this shakiest of pegs, we hung global destruction and despotism.”

That was always the plan so from the Davos Deviants point of view the modelling worked a treat.

13
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TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

It’s a 20GB coin toss simulator

8
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Alter Ego
Alter Ego
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

The problem here is that Ferguson et al DO NOT KNOW HOW TO MODEL!

Well no – as Ferguson, for one, has exhibited time and time again.

He is a courtier; he doesn’t have to be competent. He knows what is wanted and supplies it.

Charge: Aiding and Abetting.

18
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TheBluePill
TheBluePill
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

Great points, but it is not possible to refine a model such as this, that gives drastically different results each time it is executed, that differs depending on the computer hardware it is executed on, and that has to be run repeatedly and averaged to hide the clearly insane results. A model that has guide-rails all over the place to try and force it going off the tracks every single time.
The only way of refining this model is with a short sharper hammer blow to the hard drives that it infests.

10
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  TheBluePill

a non deterministic model is not a model, just junk code.

7
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Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  TheBluePill

The bit that really winds me up is that the intention was for it to be deterministic. You feed it the same pseudo-random seed and the same data set, and it should spit out the same results each time. Run it with different seeds and get different results, but in a controllable, repeatable way.

What actually happened is that when run multi-threaded system (i.e. anything you’d use for a real world data set), the threads raced to grab the next rand() from the sequence and it produced different results each time.

ICL’s response was to say “Oh, that’s ‘stochastic’, just keep running it,” when the significance was that it couldn’t be tested or verified, and it was accidentally random. That’s the fundamental failure in thinking that gets me: when they were caught, they’re such rank amateurs that they couldn’t even see the problem with the problem.

Last edited 3 years ago by Rogerborg
7
0
Backlash
Backlash
3 years ago
Reply to  Rogerborg

The use of a random seed is in itself pointless outside of a simulation for something like dice or card games, it would suggest that chance has a large element in outcome which of course is nonsense in the spread of a “deadly” virus.

I was told that the original original version that Ferguson wrote used the Timer as a random seed, so even on a single core would have offered different results every time

Last edited 3 years ago by Backlash
0
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

I disagree – Imperial College and SAGE did their modelling very well indeed – they got the silly British public to put on face masks, fooled them with the ‘need to test’ over and over again, and helped those running the show to help themselves to £billions. Daylight robbery. You only have to look at the bank accounts of those behind this scam to see how expert they are in predicting and modelling their own wealth.

They are still coining it in to this day. I can’t see ‘Professor’ Ferguson worrying about how to pay for his electricity bills.

22
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Backlash
Backlash
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

Most people I know who were putting up the “I trust our elected government” and “i believe in official science” lines are now simply saying “I don’t want to discuss it”

4
0
Will
Will
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

That is what the government, eventually, did in December 2021.

2
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

Epidemiologists can relax, Ferguson is a physicist, demonstrating that he knows nothing about coding, forecasting or epidemiology

0
0
annicx
annicx
3 years ago
Reply to  The Rule of Pricks

It was the same with Mickey Mouse and his Hockey Stick Graph-O-Doom. Two Canadians who knew nothing much about climate but were expert at spotting fake claims knew it was a con straight off and comprehensively proved it- yet there Mr Mouse still is, basking in his fame and fortune when he should be in jail for massive fraud.

0
0
Occams Pangolin Pie
Occams Pangolin Pie
3 years ago

Ineptitude or the appearance of ineptitude.

10
0
DanClarke
DanClarke
3 years ago

None of those flogging these models to the gullible public even looked as if they believed them.

10
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
3 years ago

I don’t think this was a case of inaccurate case data being accidentally used. I think it was another example of policy based evidence making which seems to be all the rage these days.

“This is what we want to do. Go and manufacture me the evidence to justify it”.

21
0
PhilP
PhilP
3 years ago

They don’t live up to their acronym SAGE meaning wise. It should be changed to DUMB. I’ll let you all come up with some clever meanings for the new acronym.

10
0
Gregoryno6
Gregoryno6
3 years ago
Reply to  PhilP

Desperately
Under-brained
Mendacious
Brstrds

14
0
Judy Watson
Judy Watson
3 years ago
Reply to  PhilP

Decidedly useless moronic barstewards

6
0
iane
iane
3 years ago
Reply to  PhilP

More like the other meaning – something to stuff up the backside of an uncooked chicken!

4
0
stewart
stewart
3 years ago

Excuse me, but the way I remember it, it was media hysteria and selective reporting that incited the population and pressured government into locking down and all the other draconian measures.

Neil Ferguson is a scumbag, as far as I’m concerned, but the media could, nay SHOULD, have asked some questions before ramming his predictions down our throats.

Really, the more I encounter the MSM, the more they make me want to puke.

45
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The old bat
The old bat
3 years ago
Reply to  stewart

Yes, the media hysteria from a certain section of society (you know the ones – roomy houses and gardens, supportive employers, space to work from home) was massive. It was all you read in certain areas of the press. ‘Lock down now!’ ‘Why isn’t Boris locking down?’ Sites like Mumsnet (which are peopled largely by the comfy middle class) were absolutely rabid about it, and, of course, thrilled when it actually happened and their only worry was their Waitrose delivery, and ensuring their neighbours were sticking to the rules (god I detest that site now). That doesn’t excuse terrible modelling at all (and Ferguson has had years to perfect his terrible modelling ) but, squeaky wheels and all that, y’know.

13
0
steve_z
steve_z
3 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

Piers Morgan

6
0
CynicalRealist
CynicalRealist
3 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

Another thing the ‘Mumsnet and Waitrose’ class clearly thought was important was making sure they had enough logs for thier log burners – I live in a flat in an area where most of the other large houses remain as single residences, and it was comical in March 2020 to see the log supplier’s lorry using its crane to deposit large bags of logs at most of the houses in the street!

7
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
3 years ago
Reply to  stewart

‘When everyone in the room agrees, somebody is lying’

George Patton

13
0
TheGreenAcres
TheGreenAcres
3 years ago

They only had to look at the Diamond Princess cruise ship to tell that their projections where rubbish. Plenty of people pointed that out at the time but nobody was listening.

35
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

“nobody wanted to listen.”

The evidence did not match their goal.

20
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MikeHaseler
MikeHaseler
3 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

When you get into a mind set that “you have to persuade people to act” … and that in order to so that “you have to produce scary forecasts” … the people who are most likely to fall for those lies and propaganda … as they get regurgitated by the press and media, who then start repressing the sceptics … are the scatty brained academics producing the forecasts. The result is that they feel even more sure they must “over-egg” the data to ensure that people will be scared, etc.

So, these bird brained academics get into a hysteria loop … as they start believing their own hysteria as it is mirrored back to them by the media. What it is, is a positive feedback look .. and sceptics (who were then censored and repressed because of their lies) are the negative feedback. And, anyone who understands feedback loops, knows what happens next.

6
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeHaseler

we seem to somehow be ruled by Ark-B types

3
0
steve_z
steve_z
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

I don’t even have a clean telephone

3
0
Rogerborg
Rogerborg
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

Dishy Davos Rishi’s magic money tree currency strongly supports this hypothesis.

3
0
Will
Will
3 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

Michael Levitt, a noble prize winner emailed Ferguson, imploring him to look at the DP data. Ferguson ignored him.

9
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A Heretic
A Heretic
3 years ago
Reply to  TheGreenAcres

Exactly this. They had all the data they needed not only from the Diamond Princess but also from Italy. To claim otherwise is just complete bullshit.
No doubt this is some pathetic arse covering exercise of “we did the best we could with the data we had”.

2
0
steve_z
steve_z
3 years ago

finally – after 2 years – the media starts coming round to my point of view

good

the whole think was a mistake – bad modelling, innumerate politicians, a hysterical media

apparently lockdown saved 0.2% of lives (that’s a few hundred) and caused 100,000 extra cancer deaths.

idiots

17
-1
Catee
Catee
3 years ago

There is something about this bloke that just makes me want to hurt him, really really badly. Obviously I wouldn’t because that would be very very wrong and abusive and yet the want is still there.

16
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  Catee

I expect Adolf Hitler’s parents loved him. Neil Ferguson is also someone’s child. Heaven forbid you’d want to do anything nasty to the man who spread fear throughout the land, and thus prevented people from seeing their elderly relations in care homes before they died in squalor.

15
-1
The old bat
The old bat
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

Well yes, and if you follow a logical line it’s really his fault that I cannot see my gp, and thousands of people will die/live in extreme pain because of the hospital waiting lists.
I still feel angry about the farmers he destroyed (and not a few killed themselves) with his foot and mouth modelling and the horrendously cruel contiguous cull he devised. The man should be sacked at the minimum.

21
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

Why aren’t there protests outside Ferguson’s home? You’d think the people he has ‘inconvenienced’ would be really, really angry.

I haven’t forgotten the Foot-&-Mouth scandal and the rough-handed way animals were destroyed. I saw for myself the nonsensical measures. Maybe Neil gets a kick out of seeing others suffer?

“Matt Hancock ‘backs police’ if they fine Professor Neil Ferguson for breaking COVID-19 lockdown” – Matt says social distancing is very important to prevent the spread of the virus…

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=o6gPJGFwA-I

6
-1
Alter Ego
Alter Ego
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

What do you think protests outside his home would achieve?

(I’m asking seriously),.

1
0
paul parmenter
paul parmenter
3 years ago
Reply to  Alter Ego

He would be well protected by a heavily armed police cordon. He has been too precious to the government to allow him to face any kind of justice.

3
0
Ron Smith
Ron Smith
3 years ago
Reply to  paul parmenter

Shame…I hear he is in mid Wales

1
0
Alter Ego
Alter Ego
3 years ago
Reply to  paul parmenter

I reckon – police who might well find the excuse to crack a few heads in the protection of public safety.

0
0
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
TheyLiveAndWeLockdown
3 years ago
Reply to  Emerald Fox

dont forget he also mod-dulled the vCJD panicdemic

4
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  TheyLiveAndWeLockdown

The ICL team history is below, with the figures showing forecast deaths vs actuals:
2001: Foot & Mouth – 150,000 vs <250
2002: BSE – 136,000 vs 2,826
2005: Bird Flue – 200 Million vs 616
2009: Swine Flu – 65,000 vs 457

0
0
TSull
TSull
3 years ago
Reply to  The old bat

If by sacked, you mean hung, drawn and quartered, I wholeheartedly agree.

0
0
pjar
pjar
3 years ago

Two things about this, for me:

  1. The model seems to have been predicated upon the result they wanted it to show.
  2. The hysterical reaction that met anyone who dared to, even mildly, question it.

There are people among us who are not working for our benefit. You can see them at work in practically every situation that faces us, be it Brexit, Climate, Covid masks or the situation unfolding in Ukraine.

26
0
MikeHaseler
MikeHaseler
3 years ago
Reply to  pjar

The model seems to have been predicated upon the result they wanted it to show.

Same as climate models … they decide what scary result they want, they they twiddle the knobs till the model produces that scary result.

Models are just a way to hide a viewpoint … in a way that no one who doesn’t understand the model can argue with … and in a way that those who don’t understand the model are left with no way to decide who is right based on the evidence … because the models never explain how they get from available evidence to their utterly outrageous predictions.

8
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  MikeHaseler

Well respected economist, J K Galbraith summed it up perfectly “There are only two types of forecasters, those who are wrong and those who don’t know they are wrong”

1
0
PoshPanic
PoshPanic
3 years ago

David Paton has a thread on the first lockdown. Conclusion is it was not needed..

https://twitter.com/cricketwyvern/status/1498243243242364932?s=21

8
0
bringbacksanity
bringbacksanity
3 years ago

So…the justification for screwing everyone’s lives was based upon inaccurate Covid case numbers, and they were also unsure of hospitalisation and death rates when they published their models ! Oh ok then.

11
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  bringbacksanity

I always think of this when Ferguson and Imperial College are mentioned… according to his fanboy Billy Hunt, Chris Whitty is the “saviour of all civilisation.”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dpCxpmegbnE

4
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
3 years ago
Reply to  bringbacksanity

It’s not about a bloody virus.

2
0
dearieme
dearieme
3 years ago

The Astrologer-Royal is a charlatan. I speak as a former mathematical modeller – but the Real McCoy not a pretendy version.

12
0
Bobby Lobster
Bobby Lobster
3 years ago

Two years too late. Stopped believing anything when they started fiddling with Death Certificates early on. We should have opened back up well within two months when we all knew that only the old and infirm took the brunt.

I think we also knew that it was born in a lab, and probably got out accidentally. Doesn’t explain why China allowed it all over the world without warning.

12
0
Emerald Fox
Emerald Fox
3 years ago
Reply to  Bobby Lobster

Never mind – China was forgiven when all the Olympic athletes went there for their “pasta and a bit of meat on a bone”. Oh, and “some nuts”.

6
0
Emmelda Johnson
Emmelda Johnson
3 years ago

Profanity and abuse goes nowhere near expressing my dislike for Professor numb nuts.

5
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
3 years ago

Another gone too soon

Skibadee: Influential drum and bass MC dies at 47 – BBC News

Obituary doesn’t state where he won his Military Cross

4
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  Cecil B

In Walthsamstow, he survived a particularly nasty stabbing.

1
0
Judy Watson
Judy Watson
3 years ago

I would not trust Ferguson with an airfix model kit

4
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
3 years ago

According to F’s modelling we were due to have 800 covid deaths in our village

Still waiting for our first covid death

Worked out before the end of March 2020 that what he was saying was utter tripe

7
0
Fireweasel
Fireweasel
3 years ago

Roman Abramovich, who robbed the Russian people of umpteen millions, and then fled to London and spent his ill-gotten gains on buying a football team, is getting plenty of publicity for flying to Belarus to talk about Ukraine.

No doubt, Abramovich phoned James Robinson of the Daily Fail Online before he made his decision to go to Belarus, just to make sure adequate press coverage would be in place.

And how about the Daily Fail? They just spent two years attempting to coerce people into taking an experimental and toxic gene therapy, and now, all of a sudden, they are very concerned about the lives of people the other side of Europe.

The hypocrisy and shamelessness is absolutely nauseating. But, of course, the same people that paid the Daily Fail handsomely to big-up the gene therapies, also pay them handsomely to publicise Ukraine.   

8
0
bertieboy
bertieboy
3 years ago

One has to wonder why the MSM are all of a sudden asking questions – well, actually it’s called doing their job
Could it be that they sense the public are beginning to wake up, the tide is turning and they fear they may be blamed for their part in this scam?
Too late! We won’t forget their part in all this hysteria. They all need to be held to account! All of them – they’re all complicit, blood on their hands. Countless thousands have died and will die as a direct result of the measures they implemented. People need answers and they need to see justice. What about those who didn’t get to hold their dying loved one or say goodbye. I still get angry when I think about it. My elderly father in law got to see his wife about five times in eighteen months before she died. It’s disgraceful! There needs to be a Nuremberg type trial with all those who have been in positions of authority having to account for their decisions, not least the NHS leaders, the union leaders, head teachers, government officials, sage members, MSM and of course our friend Ferguson to name but a few!

12
0
Moist Von Lipwig
Moist Von Lipwig
3 years ago

This is news in the same way that ZZ Top and Brian Blessed have beards is news.

Ferguson does this purposefully, to justify his own existence as a parasite.

5
0
JeremyP99
JeremyP99
3 years ago

Ferguson demonstrates in one fell swoop that “reward for failure” is a core part of the Public Sector now.

9
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

Nothing like the rewards for failure in the private sector.
Pfizer, Moderna, Astra Zeneca, and the entire banking sector spring to mind.

3
0
JeremyP99
JeremyP99
3 years ago
Reply to  MrTea

Yes. Big difference. We fund the public sector. Whilst I completely agree with you on gross profits and bonuses, that’s another matter altogether from our public sector, which is costing more and more and providing less and less. Lots of diversity and inclusivity though, and kindness and well-being officers, all on high salaries and providing NO economic or social benefit. Non-jobs for the public sector boys and girls. Underfunded? Really?

6
0
TSull
TSull
3 years ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

We also fund the banks. In my part of this ever-spinning globe, the taxpayer was forced to take on over 40% of Europe’s banking gambling debts. The profits are privatised, the losses are socialised.

0
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  TSull

The following quote comes from
‘Places in Hell’ – Yanis Varoufakis 1961 –
 
“… it looks probably very similar to that reserved for those who designed a monetary union without a proper banking union and, once the banking crisis hit, cynically transferred the bankers’ gigantic losses onto the shoulders of the weakest taxpayers”

0
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
3 years ago
Reply to  JeremyP99

It was always thus. In hospital today for an outpatients appointment. Turned up a little bit early to be told by a masked receptionist, sitting behind a glass screen, that I can’t wait as they don’t have much space. One person was sitting in an area with 6 chairs available for use and two blocked off. She suggested I can go the the chapel??? Do atheists like me wear an invisible halo saying ‘Needs Saving’??!! Returned 10 minutes later and am allowed to wait, in the same area, where 3 other people are now seated!
The receptionist was no doubt following an instruction from the Infection Control Team who still think they are fighting an Ebola outbreak and who will no doubt be promoted due to their 100% success rate in preventing said outbreak.

1
0
MrTea
MrTea
3 years ago

Prof John Ioannidis of Stamford was telling us loud and clear that covid19 was not very serious from the very begining.
Ferguson produced a fraudulent model because that is what the Tories wanted him to produce, they would have put Ferguson’s work out for peer review immediately if they wanted an honest assessment.
But they did not, they hid the study for months and when it did come out it was soon shown to be complete cobblers.

12
0
DanClarke
DanClarke
3 years ago

In the beginning after being removed from hospital back to care homes without checks, doctors got their diagnosis from care workers over the internet, ie ‘it looks like covid’, that was enough to issue a death certificate, then post mortems were few and far between, then the covid nightly hype began. Meanwhile why did Prof F get called Prof Pantsdown. None of them appear to have believed their own nudge unit for one minute.

5
0
peyrole
peyrole
3 years ago

There is going to be a lot of stuff like this and the mRNA changes DNA etc released under the cover of the Ukraine War.

6
0
EppingBlogger
EppingBlogger
3 years ago

Who is Carl Henegan and why do his views matter

Does anyone expect HMG to do anything about this (call him to explain, call NHS to explain why they didn’t cjheck, call SAGE to explain why it didn’t check, call Secretary of State at the time to ask ditto, etc).

Does anyone expect next time will be any different or that any of the culprits will be out of the loop by then (unless retired and on a big salary at 2 days a week at a left wing quango or “chartity”).

In short, why bother reporting this, except for record purposes. Nothing will change.

3
-1
tich
tich
3 years ago

Ferguson should be tried for crimes against humanity. His “modelling” has been spectacularly wrong everytime for the last 20 years. Scores of bancruptcies, suicides and millions of needless culling of animals. Oh and lockdowns. How is he still employed? He believed in his mantra so much, that he broke the rules he helped formulate.

8
0
watersider
watersider
3 years ago

More headline news,
I was told the sun came up this morning

0
0
JudyRobinson
JudyRobinson
3 years ago

Our healthcare system is about to experience a tsunami! Potential side effects of jabs include chronic inflammation, because the vaccine continuously stimulates the immune system to produce antibodies. Other concerns include the possible integration of plasmid DNA into the body’s host genome, resulting in mutations, problems with DNA replication, triggering of autoimmune responses, and activation of cancer-causing genes. Alternative COVID cures EXIST. Ivermectin is one of them. While Ivermectin is very effective curing COVID symptoms, it has also been shown to eliminate certain cancers. Do not get the poison jab. Get your Ivermectin today while you still can! https://ivmpharmacy.com

1
0
Maxine
Maxine
3 years ago

Except that this is an excuse and they DID have much of the data needed, they just chose not to look or to accept it preferring the opportunity to make a name for themselves and gain knighthoods (best case scenario as to why they did this) coupled with the Govt not needing to accept what they said verbatim! The Diamond Princess was a floating, self isolated case study. They KNEW in Feb 2020 the key risks factors from this disease and how lethal it was

0
0

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