I’ll start off this week with data not from the latest UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance Report, nor even from the U.K. – the first chart for today shows the excess deaths in Israel since 2017 for those aged 65 or over. Just something to think about and I’ll come back to it at the end.
In this week’s UKHSA report the story is much the same as prior weeks – infection rates are still highest in the triple vaccinated except for individuals aged under 18 or over 80; the data for those aged under 18 continue to shift towards decreasing vaccine protection, while there’s not much change in vaccine performance for those aged over 80. At least infection rates are declining across the board as this January’s Omicron wave recedes into history.
Using the rates data above to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection again shows the vaccines to be performing poorly, with all vaccinated bar those under 18 now showing substantially increased risk of infection (and thus also onwards transmission). Strikingly, the triple vaccinated aged 18-70 have around triple the risk of infection compared to the unvaccinated.
Plotting vaccine effectiveness against infection by time shows that while the vaccine effectiveness for one or two doses is broadly flat, albeit mostly negative, across all age ranges, the protection offered by three doses continues to drop relentlessly. This now appears to be more serious than a simple waning of vaccine protection; the data instead appear to be more characteristic of a dose-effect, with the more doses given resulting in increased risk. Time will tell if this is indeed the case.
Protection against hospitalisation shows a similar picture to last week’s data, with a continued drift downwards in the protection offered by three doses. The protection offered by three doses appears to be better in those aged over 50; it isn’t clear why this should be the case, although I note that the immune system does change with age, and particularly for those aged over 65-70 – it might be that the vaccines offer more benefit for those suffering from age related immune dysfunction. The situation with one or two doses appears to be drifting downwards with two doses increasing risk of hospitalisation slightly (slightly negative protection) and one dose being associated with substantially increased risk of hospitalisation risk.
The protection offered by the vaccines against death perhaps shows the most worrying trend, with a rather significant downwards slope deeper into negative territory for one or two doses of vaccine, and a lower but nevertheless prominent slide in vaccine effectiveness for those triple jabbed. It is important to add that while these data do show that while a triple dose of vaccine does appear to reduce the risk of death from Covid, they don’t offer any information whatsoever about any side-effect/complication risk of the Covid vaccines.
The above graphs show vaccine effectiveness and thus don’t really indicate the impact of the vaccines on the progression of each Covid wave – I think it might be instructive to show a little data on how the vaccines appear to have impacted on Covid rates since the start of the year. I’ll focus on one age group – those aged 40 to 50 – as this will keep the graphs relatively simple, but note that similar trends are seen across all age groups. I’ll also lump all vaccinated together into one group called ‘any vaccine’.
The changes in case rates are perhaps what you’d expect if you’d been following the UKHSA publications over the weeks – rates are higher in those that are vaccinated, but in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated case rates were highest at the start of the year and have been declining at a relatively similar pace since.
The data for hospitalisations, however, shows a different pattern. While the hospitalisation rate in the unvaccinated has declined significantly since the start of the year, the data for those having taken any vaccine shows a much more subdued reduction, with signs of a slight peak in hospitalisations around the latter part of January. Note how the hospitalisation data ends with there being little difference in hospitalisation rates between the unvaccinated and those having taken any vaccine.
But it is the deaths (within 60 days of a positive test) data that shows the most worrying trend. The vaccines still appear to offer protection against death. However, while the death rate in the unvaccinated has been in a strong trend downwards since the start of the year, the death rate in the vaccinated has been trending upwards.
These data are very concerning as they suggest that serious Covid disease is now behaving differently in the vaccinated than in the unvaccinated; since the start of the year hospitalisations have reduced markedly in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated, but while deaths have decreased in the unvaccinated, they have increased in the vaccinated and remain relatively high. It isn’t clear why this should be the case, but several potential reasons jump out:
- The curve above could reflect the change in death rates as the Omicron variant replaced Delta. In this case the data would suggest that the net impact of Omicron is of increased mortality rates in the vaccinated; the increased numbers of cases and increased vaccine escape in Omicron result in an increase in deaths despite the indications that the mortality rate of Omicron is lower than that of Delta per infection. However, the curve in the graph above doesn’t match the rapid switch to Omicron variant seen at the end of last year. In addition, the mismatch between the curves for hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated suggests that there is more to it.
- The change in mortality rates indicated in the figure above does better match the spread of Omicron BA.1.1 variant in the U.K. However, this variant is not very different from variant BA.1 and there are no other indications that it has any substantial impact on the severity of disease.
- It might be that Omicron variant BA.2 is more deadly than we think to the vaccinated. In this case the slow climb upwards in the deaths data for the vaccinated would reflect the slow increase in BA.2 variant in the U.K., despite the dramatic reduction in cases of the BA.1 variant. BA.2 is still only present in relatively small numbers in the UK (about 25% according to the UKHSA’s Technical Briefing 37) and thus would need to be much more deadly in the vaccinated to get the change in mortality rates of the magnitude seen.
- The mortality rate data seen above could arise due to differences in the time course of infection in the vaccinated versus unvaccinated. The unvaccinated appear to be following the known progression of Covid disease, with those few that succumb to Covid doing so about two to three weeks after infection. The vaccinated, however, appear to be having a more protracted disease progression and dying sometime later. Quite how much later is not clear – looking at the chart suggests that the period of increased mortality isn’t over yet.
A simple examination of the relative trends of the vaccinated and unvaccinated mortality rates suggests that the two curves will cross over some time between the UKHSA week 10 Vaccine Surveillance Report and the report for week 11, although I note that the data shown in the graph above are for deaths within 60 days; if it is due to a slower disease progression in the vaccinated then the data could well be curtailed as the 60 day point after infection is reached. Any Covid deaths that occur after the 60 day point will be regarded in the data as connected with neither vaccination nor Covid – they’ll be relegated into the realms of ‘short illness’ and ‘sudden death’ that fills too many news reports in recent times.
These data indicating that deaths in the vaccinated aren’t declining as expected after the January Covid wave are very concerning, whatever the reason. Under normal times there would be an urgent investigation into what exactly was occurring and why, and what mitigating actions were required. But these aren’t normal times and I imagine we’ll get the same action as has occurred when other ‘inconvenient’ data have emerged about the vaccines – i.e., nothing will be done.
And that brings me right back to where I started, with that graph of excess deaths in what is probably the most vaccinated country in greater Europe. Something has occurred in Israel to give a significant rise in deaths in the last few weeks, far above what might be expected at this time of year – they’ve now got their highest death rate in those aged over 65 since Covid began two years ago. I note that while Israel and the U.K. began vaccinating at about the same time, in Israel they gave the second dose approximately 30 days after the first, while in the UK we waited approximately 90 days – this has resulted in Israel being about 60 days ahead of the UK in terms of the impact of vaccination on their population…
Amanuensis is an ex-academic and senior Government scientist. He blogs at Bartram’s Folly.
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Bridget Phillipson is an utter disgrace.
Yet another bigoted and profoundly stupid charlatan working for the bigoted and profoundly stupid bureaucrat and charlatan masquerading as PM.
Neither Phillipson nor Stalin are anything like as nice as your descriptions.
What a brilliant takedown.
This should be flagged on the BBC and all MSM.
It won’t be though.
Brave woman!
She knows what she is talking about and she believes in it.
One thing all marxo-fascist governments rely on is unquestioning compliance. With people like Katherine Birbalsingh their power would crumble.
Of course she is completely right.
The entire government consists of a group of clueless, talentless, incompetent, useless individuals.
Starmer, Reeves, Lammy, Phillipson, Milliband – the whole cabal is just an utter embarrassment to Britain.
You missed Rayner, and a few hundred other empty vessels.
Imagine if we had people of that quality running the dept of education…
Wouldn’t it be great if there were no dept of education and all schools were independent paid for by vouchers issued to patents through the tax system.
Can’t have that – far too much choice, people might choose the ‘wrong’ answer!
Hockey sticks at dawn…
…Birbalsingh United 7 – 0 Phillistine Wanderer
“You lucky bas**d it could have been 10”
What Paul Weston said ( and kudos to Katherine for one very fine roasting of one half of the dreadful ‘bob twins’ );
”The greatest problem facing England and the English is that all the people in all the state institutions which control every aspect of our lives are communists, and as such wish to destroy England and the English.”
Something they seem to be managing pretty well, I’d say…
I’m reminded of a recent DT item on Brighton schools, where they plan on bussing pupils miles in direct contradiction of their “active travel” obsession. Hypocrites all.
I love Katherine Birbalsingh (not literally) and her ideas for how schools should operate, but am a bit queasy about her political tone of voice, which allows Labour to dismiss the arguments simply because she is a Tory.
I don’t see where she says she’s a Tory.
Anyway, everything is political, so I don’t think the argument can be avoided and she’s right to raise it. This is a government with a socialist ideology (well, supposedly – who knows what they really think) and they’ve acted accordingly in many areas since taking office. I think it’s great that people are shown that there’s an association with crap education policies and socialism.
Yes education is lousy with politics, especially in WHAT is taught, but HOW it is taught should be based simply on what works.
I’m sure I read somewhere that she denies and has convincingly refuted being a Tory.
It wasn’t in Wikipedia but it’ll do for a start: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Katharine_Birbalsingh#Political_views
Perhaps not a Tory but possibly a conservative thinker.
So what if she is – we’d need to be a little more Trump and just brazen these things out, rather than denying – you’ll never please them so why bother, f**k em
I love her literally. What a truly wonderful woman!
Blimey! A man on here who has something positive to say about a woman for a change.
A woman that’s also in a leadership position, no less.
. Your kind are in short supply round these parts.
Here, have one of these
I think you’re a tad too touchy. I’m a woman; I’ve made that clear on many occasions and I don’t see a great deal of anti-woman bigotry.
Not touchy at all, but I’ve been commenting regularly for 3.5+ years now and I speak from extensive experience. Interesting you’re a woman but you never have anything to say in support of women or pipe up when it’s the same names, again and again on here, making disparaging remarks and generally slagging off women in general. Cowardice or a misogynist’s submissive ‘handmaiden’…? Hmmm. Just as well I don’t require anyone to fight my battles for me or have my back around here, isn’t it? Because all there ever is is crickets.
I’ve got your back Mogs
Cheers Liz.
I think women posters are few and far between. The ones who aren’t afraid to share their opinions, whether popular or not, and challenge any sexist bollocks are near non-existant.
Well you know what they say:” Better to die on your feet, a ballsy shield maiden, than live on your knees, a submissive handmaiden.”
It seems some are afflicted with a bad case of wilfull blindness…..
Enjoy!
https://youtu.be/cN7L_cte7PA?si=JByV-kov4ynDEQ6z
Nah! Go for it Katherine these people are playground bullies (as well as communists) and the only language a bully understands is to bully them back they soon cower away. Assume Katherine understands that being a teacher and an outstanding one.
What on earth makes you think she’s a Tory? I would hope she inclines more towards Reform
NOTE FOR MODS:
I am back to two and three times daily log in. Could this be sorted please?
Ditto. It’s a pisser!
Moderator here: please see response above
Moderator here: I’ll pass your messages to the office. Did you receive this message which was sent to you in mid-November, when this happened previously? I didn’t get any response from you:
QUOTE”Ian says: “Hux specifically asked us to prevent him logging in, since he was concerned someone else might have gained access to his account (or something). But he obviously forgot about that! I’ve unblocked him.”
Hopefully that should solve it.
UNQUOTE
My mobile got nicked in Spain. I do not recall asking that my account should be locked. Since the unblocking all has been fine until the last couple of days so something has gone wrong.
It could well be a browser issue. Could you try using a private browsing window and see if it still happens there? Or email me if it continues.
Ok Ian, I will see how it goes. I use Brave browser and have done for years. No issues on any of the other sites I visit.
I couldn’t log in for several months from August last year. I was apparently identified as a ‘bot’! Strangely enough, my subscription went through with no problems immediately before I became a ‘bot’! I have to say that admin did try to get me back on line but nothing worked. Apparently, I’d changed my password but how I did that when I was unable to log in still leaves me bemused. Temporary passwords provided by admin still did not work and each time, after 3 failed attempts, I was locked out for 24 hours! I gave up eventually. I suppose the positive side of me not being able to join in with discussions for several months spared everyone from reading my contributions
I have to log in every time I look at DS , even if it’s within the hour of last being on
Me too. It’s so annoying!
Yes certainly happens more often nowadays and yes annoying.
For what it’s worth I don’t have any issues using on two different Apple devices, login seems to last for 30 ish days I think, then go to comment and have to login again. Worth checking your router settings etc, sometimes the ISP services cause issues, I use opendns for example instead of my ISP’s services, one less thing to go wrong
Step by step marching along the road of dumbing down and not owning anything but being happy. How do we stop these fools?
Katherine and Phillipson is a staggering miscontest
.
What I can’t get over is that Phillipson was so badly prepared. Anyfulekno that Katharine Birbalsingh is not to be messed with.
Clearly assumed she’d be cowed by the majesty of an MP… not. In fact, I think the best way to describe the outcome was ‘the education secretary got her ass kicked’
The “Teaching” Unions and Education Bureaucrats hate Academies as much as they hate Private Schools which the plebs can just about afford to access.
It’s they who are driving the destruction; Phillipson is just their useful Marxist idiot.
Anyone who can afford it should be investing in a private tutor for STEM subjects and making the time to educate their children in neglected/warped subjects such as History, themselves. History is easy; there are so many places to visit which can be used to teach it and they don’t all have to cost much money. Our history is a story: tell it.
Well said indeed. But tbh it doesn’t take the “brain of Britain” to know that these people couldn’t give a tuppenny ha’penny f… about this country or educating its people. They are communists through and through. All they want is their Marxist ideology to be taught everywhere and enforce their dystopian agenda on the world.That is their aim. It needs to be destroyed.
Katharine, I am forwarding your name to Elon Musk with the hope he will forward your name to President Trump. The USA education dept is one big mess. They could sure use a successful leader such as your self. It would mean a move to the USA. Your academy should be a role model for the department of education in this country. Instead you are second guessed at every turn and forced to follow a department of education curriculum and politicians unfit for purpose. I will pray for you and your tremendous school(s).
No no no, we need you here Katharine. Please don’t leave us!
Daily sceptic, do not stop here. Continue to write about Katherine’s successes, support her in every way and question the dept of education’s plans for curriculum, academies and the whole of education in this country! These kids are our FUTURE. Look after them and the people giving them the education they deserve. Thank you.
Birbalsingh should have Phillipsons job..
She’s not shallow enough for that…
I sincerely hope Katharine Biirbalsingh can instil in her students that same ability to think for themselves and speak up when they encounter something that is wrong, unjust or asinine. Like the education secretary herself.
She’s leading by example. I’m sure her pupils can see that and cheer her on from the side lines. What a great role model
Wow. What a great response. I wonder if Phillipson will budge.