I’ll start off this week with data not from the latest UKHSA Vaccine Surveillance Report, nor even from the U.K. – the first chart for today shows the excess deaths in Israel since 2017 for those aged 65 or over. Just something to think about and I’ll come back to it at the end.
In this week’s UKHSA report the story is much the same as prior weeks – infection rates are still highest in the triple vaccinated except for individuals aged under 18 or over 80; the data for those aged under 18 continue to shift towards decreasing vaccine protection, while there’s not much change in vaccine performance for those aged over 80. At least infection rates are declining across the board as this January’s Omicron wave recedes into history.
Using the rates data above to estimate vaccine effectiveness against infection again shows the vaccines to be performing poorly, with all vaccinated bar those under 18 now showing substantially increased risk of infection (and thus also onwards transmission). Strikingly, the triple vaccinated aged 18-70 have around triple the risk of infection compared to the unvaccinated.
Plotting vaccine effectiveness against infection by time shows that while the vaccine effectiveness for one or two doses is broadly flat, albeit mostly negative, across all age ranges, the protection offered by three doses continues to drop relentlessly. This now appears to be more serious than a simple waning of vaccine protection; the data instead appear to be more characteristic of a dose-effect, with the more doses given resulting in increased risk. Time will tell if this is indeed the case.
Protection against hospitalisation shows a similar picture to last week’s data, with a continued drift downwards in the protection offered by three doses. The protection offered by three doses appears to be better in those aged over 50; it isn’t clear why this should be the case, although I note that the immune system does change with age, and particularly for those aged over 65-70 – it might be that the vaccines offer more benefit for those suffering from age related immune dysfunction. The situation with one or two doses appears to be drifting downwards with two doses increasing risk of hospitalisation slightly (slightly negative protection) and one dose being associated with substantially increased risk of hospitalisation risk.
The protection offered by the vaccines against death perhaps shows the most worrying trend, with a rather significant downwards slope deeper into negative territory for one or two doses of vaccine, and a lower but nevertheless prominent slide in vaccine effectiveness for those triple jabbed. It is important to add that while these data do show that while a triple dose of vaccine does appear to reduce the risk of death from Covid, they don’t offer any information whatsoever about any side-effect/complication risk of the Covid vaccines.
The above graphs show vaccine effectiveness and thus don’t really indicate the impact of the vaccines on the progression of each Covid wave – I think it might be instructive to show a little data on how the vaccines appear to have impacted on Covid rates since the start of the year. I’ll focus on one age group – those aged 40 to 50 – as this will keep the graphs relatively simple, but note that similar trends are seen across all age groups. I’ll also lump all vaccinated together into one group called ‘any vaccine’.
The changes in case rates are perhaps what you’d expect if you’d been following the UKHSA publications over the weeks – rates are higher in those that are vaccinated, but in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated case rates were highest at the start of the year and have been declining at a relatively similar pace since.
The data for hospitalisations, however, shows a different pattern. While the hospitalisation rate in the unvaccinated has declined significantly since the start of the year, the data for those having taken any vaccine shows a much more subdued reduction, with signs of a slight peak in hospitalisations around the latter part of January. Note how the hospitalisation data ends with there being little difference in hospitalisation rates between the unvaccinated and those having taken any vaccine.
But it is the deaths (within 60 days of a positive test) data that shows the most worrying trend. The vaccines still appear to offer protection against death. However, while the death rate in the unvaccinated has been in a strong trend downwards since the start of the year, the death rate in the vaccinated has been trending upwards.
These data are very concerning as they suggest that serious Covid disease is now behaving differently in the vaccinated than in the unvaccinated; since the start of the year hospitalisations have reduced markedly in both the vaccinated and unvaccinated, but while deaths have decreased in the unvaccinated, they have increased in the vaccinated and remain relatively high. It isn’t clear why this should be the case, but several potential reasons jump out:
- The curve above could reflect the change in death rates as the Omicron variant replaced Delta. In this case the data would suggest that the net impact of Omicron is of increased mortality rates in the vaccinated; the increased numbers of cases and increased vaccine escape in Omicron result in an increase in deaths despite the indications that the mortality rate of Omicron is lower than that of Delta per infection. However, the curve in the graph above doesn’t match the rapid switch to Omicron variant seen at the end of last year. In addition, the mismatch between the curves for hospitalisations and deaths in the vaccinated suggests that there is more to it.
- The change in mortality rates indicated in the figure above does better match the spread of Omicron BA.1.1 variant in the U.K. However, this variant is not very different from variant BA.1 and there are no other indications that it has any substantial impact on the severity of disease.
- It might be that Omicron variant BA.2 is more deadly than we think to the vaccinated. In this case the slow climb upwards in the deaths data for the vaccinated would reflect the slow increase in BA.2 variant in the U.K., despite the dramatic reduction in cases of the BA.1 variant. BA.2 is still only present in relatively small numbers in the UK (about 25% according to the UKHSA’s Technical Briefing 37) and thus would need to be much more deadly in the vaccinated to get the change in mortality rates of the magnitude seen.
- The mortality rate data seen above could arise due to differences in the time course of infection in the vaccinated versus unvaccinated. The unvaccinated appear to be following the known progression of Covid disease, with those few that succumb to Covid doing so about two to three weeks after infection. The vaccinated, however, appear to be having a more protracted disease progression and dying sometime later. Quite how much later is not clear – looking at the chart suggests that the period of increased mortality isn’t over yet.
A simple examination of the relative trends of the vaccinated and unvaccinated mortality rates suggests that the two curves will cross over some time between the UKHSA week 10 Vaccine Surveillance Report and the report for week 11, although I note that the data shown in the graph above are for deaths within 60 days; if it is due to a slower disease progression in the vaccinated then the data could well be curtailed as the 60 day point after infection is reached. Any Covid deaths that occur after the 60 day point will be regarded in the data as connected with neither vaccination nor Covid – they’ll be relegated into the realms of ‘short illness’ and ‘sudden death’ that fills too many news reports in recent times.
These data indicating that deaths in the vaccinated aren’t declining as expected after the January Covid wave are very concerning, whatever the reason. Under normal times there would be an urgent investigation into what exactly was occurring and why, and what mitigating actions were required. But these aren’t normal times and I imagine we’ll get the same action as has occurred when other ‘inconvenient’ data have emerged about the vaccines – i.e., nothing will be done.
And that brings me right back to where I started, with that graph of excess deaths in what is probably the most vaccinated country in greater Europe. Something has occurred in Israel to give a significant rise in deaths in the last few weeks, far above what might be expected at this time of year – they’ve now got their highest death rate in those aged over 65 since Covid began two years ago. I note that while Israel and the U.K. began vaccinating at about the same time, in Israel they gave the second dose approximately 30 days after the first, while in the UK we waited approximately 90 days – this has resulted in Israel being about 60 days ahead of the UK in terms of the impact of vaccination on their population…
Amanuensis is an ex-academic and senior Government scientist. He blogs at Bartram’s Folly.
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I’d rather not read this one in full as I have no wish to give them any ad revenue.
Actually I have no idea who Andrew Tate is. I only came here because my Andrew Bridgen antennae pinged.
You’re not missing anything good, that’s for sure. Andrew Tate is the latest misogynistic “guru” to appeal to angry, confused, and disaffected young men and boys. He thinks he is being “edgy” and transgressive, but he really just ends up being banal and regressive. His disgusting verbal defecation is bad enough, but to make matters worse, he was recently arrested in Romania for rape and human trafficking. Real Nice Guy (TM), it seems, right?
The fact that anyone would downvote this really boggles the mind.
You are right but my concern is that the Bridgen affair gives the readers and supporters of the Guardian – the Progressive elite – the opportunity to rage at anti vaxxers, answer seeking MPs and Daily Sceptic subscribers.
I suppose they’ve both publicly expressed some awkward truths.
Awkward truths are part of what is now known as harmful speech…
Even a stopped clock is right twice a day.
In Tate’s case, he did openly, and with no Vaseline, call out the globalist elites, and urged young men and boys not to be cogs in their machine. That is the proverbial stopped clock being right twice a day, and probably what put the biggest bullseye on his back, as seems to be the zeitgeist. But that does NOT make him one of the good guys, and assuming so is a fallacy. Evil against evil is also a thing as well.
https://www.wehuntedthemammoth.com/2022/12/30/andrew-tates-defenders-are-out-in-force-after-his-arrest/
He is grossly misogynistic, regressive, and was recently arrested for rape and human trafficking. And he is certainly not a good role model at all by any stretch of the imagination!
Sounds like a right charmer. No wonder he’s a hit with the resident Misogynist Society. They evidently aspire to be like him. Well they can go choke on a bag of dicks! Pff..
Indeed. Good riddance to the lot of them!
People casually throw around the words “toxic masculinity” all the time these days, so much that its meaning is diluted, but the miscreant Tate (and his fan club) is literally a textbook example of it. Healthy or “tonic” masculinity can and does exist for some men, of course, but these creeps are NOT among them.
While the Ragaidun may be pathetic, it’s not comical. Bridgen said nothing about his right of free speech being threatened, that’s just woke boilerplate to smear people as (somehow dangerous) right wingers. He categorically denied being an antisemite or racist and announced legal action over that. And then, he elaborated on vaccine-injured and stated that he felt duty-bound to keep speaking up for them.
In another universe (located in Gun Street) a gay guy (most likely) who had already been targetting me in the past yesterday punched me in the face when I wouldn’t let him stroke my head. Because of this, I presently cannot chew without pain as the jaw is bruised. Of course, this caused me to be manhandled out of the place an not him. And that’s the kind of behaviour protected groups the Agdiuarn especially loves are notorious for. I’ve also been repeatedly attacked by violent lesbian who saw a lone, small man as the ideal opportunity to pay something back to the patriarchy. This was rather a comical than painful affair but that’s not for want of trying.
I hope you karate kicked him in the nuts! If you can’t perfect a decent right ( or left ) hook you need to start carrying around mace spray. I’m worried about you.
Pretty sure self defence sprays are illegal and considered the same as firearms.
As they’re illegal it’s a hard mistake to make, as for other defensive items that can be purchased for other uses and carried, admitting they were for defence when questioned turns them into offensive items in the eyes of the plod.
When I worked as a postie many moons ago we all got given pepper spray to carry. It was for the dogs should you get attacked. I suppose a spray bottle of deodorant or even WD40 could be carried as they’d look more legit if you got pulled over, especially deodorant if you’re out socializing. Anything that’ll irritate the eyes would work. I swear by WD40 to kill wasps, unless they’re especially badass.
In the UK most likely. In the USA they are generally allowed, and while they are banned in Canada they have a loophole for “bear spray”, lol.
I had my eyes closed at that time when the punch landed. This obviously made me open them, but I didn’t see him again before I was forced out of the room for – hahaha – punching someone in the face. Presumably, after the intended effect didn’t materialize (like me falling consciousless to the floor or running away crying or whatnot) someone, possibly the same someone who had just hurt his fingers badly (never punch someone in the face unless you’re a lot stronger than him — the stomach is a much better target) hastened to get a bouncer who hadn’t witnessed the scene (instead of the lady who had) to avoid finding out what future developments might bring.
I have a handy size (1.69m, 69kg) but have had quite a few run-ins with much stronger people in the past and while I obviously didn’t score any points (except maybe honourable ones), nobody managed to damage me seriously, either (knocked unconscious a couple of times, face bloodied and stuff like that).
This personal stuff aside, the point was supposed to be that, if words
cause violence against members of certain groups, the Guardian (here without the Eye joke) with its unrelenting hate-preaching (yes, that’s what it is) against specific groups must certainly be responsible for quite a bit of it.
But why are you getting into so many scraps? Please revise the places you go to hang out. I feel that they are at odds with your personality. OK, I shan’t get any more personal nor labour the point further.
But taking somebody down with a well-aimed spritz of Axe/Lynx in the eyeballs is surely doable and not unheard of.
The universe (or rather, mankind) is at odds with my personality. That’s what autism is mostly about. It means whereever you are, you’re the odd one out who doesn’t belong there. This attracts suspicion and violence. And it’s always your fault. I get accused of attacking other people when they attack me (despite – objectively – the notion of me attacking other people unprovoked is rather ridiculous, considering that I’d be bound to lose everytime because I’m always going to be outnumbered, even with opponents I could physically handle, ie, who aren’t much taller and heavier than me) and everybody naturally believes this, because there’s surely something odd about this guy! This started some time in school in the late 1970s and has been the constant background melody of the more than forty years since.
I think both Andrew and Aseem are getting it from all angles now so they’re obviously well over the target. They can support eachother all the more now I think. Andrew totally needs to stick it to Hancock though. Absolute scourge to the earth and a vile excuse for a human being.
“Matt Hancock has still not removed his defamatory tweet falsely alleging that I am antisemitic. I will allow Matt three days to apologise publicy for calling me an antisemite and racist or he will be contacted by my legal team.”
https://twitter.com/ABridgen
There is dross, double dross and then there is the woeful piece of shyte dirtying the planet with his very presence going by the name of Midazolam Mat.
That Next Tuesday will poison the planet even when he is supposed to be turning to compost.
Indeed, may he choke on pain and stomach bile!
Andrew Bridgen is clearly being ruthlessly targeted for his stance against the jabs. He is a whistleblower. One look at his Twitter feed confirms that is precisely why the powers that be want to shut him down.
He is nothing even remotely like Andrew Tate.
And Hatt Mancock can go stuff it!
This is a superb article and an excellent take-down of the Guardian hit piece on Dr Malhotra. Who fact checks the fact checkers? Well thank the gods for substack!
https://lawhealthandtech.substack.com/p/who-fact-checks-the-fact-checkers
Wow. That’s brilliant
The cardiologist Aseem Malhotra is a huge force for good here. He’s a brave very decent man, who knows how to advocate for a position based on evidence against the dark forces of big pharma, the global ‘elites’, biased media, conflicted factcheckers, authoritarian governments and politicians, and corrupt scientists and their institutions.
Well done to Mr Law, Health and Technology for the detailed defence here
Yes it’s spot on isn’t it and I really hope Malhotra has seen it and it goes viral. These people are risking it all by sticking their necks out in the attempt to spread the truth and the least people can do is have their backs, and this substacker has certainly done that. It’s a 10 from me!
It makes me laugh though, all these haters and nutjob journos that pile on. All they do is out themselves and are easy pickings for the astute, such as Mr Lawhealthandtech. And praise the gods Twitter is now in a better position to accommodate the growing number of dissenters who can provide all the necessary contradictory evidence to expunge the BS holding up the Official Narrative and all of its rotten little acolytes.
Thanks Mogs. Sound article.
On the basis of the Guardian’s own logic it should have been closed down years ago.
Good to know how thin the veneer of democracy covers the authoritarian attitudes of the left.
I am astounded that anyone thinks that being a Tory MP adds authority to their pronouncements.
So Andrew Bridgen (see Neil Oliver, GB News today) has been “groomed by ‘anti-vaxxers’ ” (the Times muppets). And who exactly have the Times muppets been groomed by? Why do they keep silent about serious and credible claims about big pharma corruption in the last few years, and not least those relating to an expperimental MRNA coronavirus medication? Silent despite having a journalist who has written on exactly this subject in the past? And if they expect us to believe that this problem has mysteriously disappeared, why not write explaining how this supposedly happened and celebrating this? Muppets!
Bigpharma has, for over 35 years, stopped any debates over vax safety by simply ensuring that there is NO debate. Ever.
Vaccines have saved humanity from extinction you see, and anyone who dares to question this is deemed an heretic and ignored/cancelled.
So, as regards mRNA jabs, they’ve just carried on as before ie a total blackout of any criticisms no matter who from. Just continue with the banalities and the sheep swallow it.
To help, as if they really needed any, the RPTB are well onside as it suits their agenda full well.
However, what is increasingly interesting is that the MSM seem to have decided that it is time to crush the likes of Bridgen/Mulhotra in public.
That can only benefit us. The Guardian actually asked Mulhotra for a response. Hitherto unheard of.
With any luck all this and similar will be in the public domain and can only continue to benefit us.
“Men it is well said, think in herds, it is seen that they go mad in herds, while they only recover their senses slowly, one by one.” Charles MacKay.
As per Joel Smalley, aka Dead man Talking/Melatron
I’ve realised that take downs like this in the BBC and the Guardian do us no harm and can only help us.
Basically, no one who is moderately awake uses these sources for information. We know they are bought up and comically biased. All this does is prove it again and persuade us even more how corrupt and dangerous they are.
Those who go to the mainstream for information are normies.on the other side.of the argument. So every piece.like this is a shot to nothing for us. They bring attention to our side of the argument. Those who swallow the bs fact check are zombies anyway. But anyone who wonders a bit and goes to the interview to see what he said might just start wondering.
In short, the mainstream isn’t going to bring any “red pilled” people back. But the more it is talked about the bigger the chance normies get picked off and leave the dark side.
Guardian, please carry on.
Agreed. I’d say if after 3 years you’re still watching the BBC and reading the Guardian, and consequently consider yourself informed, you’re a lost cause. Good riddance!
Seconded.
The motion carries then.
Oh boy I’m afraid I can’t see the funny side to this Nick et al. It doesn’t fill me with any giggles at how rediculous it is.
Instead, I guess that means I’m black pilled, it fills me with anxiety. I think there are most normies who will take this sheite at face value snd will add it to their impression that something must be done to contain hate speech.
There’s a reason I don’t read that drivel. They’ve lost their minds!
The Guardian?. Both their readers will be utterly shocked.
The Grauniad printing the garbage that its peculiar readership are addicted to. Same old, same old.
Andrew Tate in his own words: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ReL8Do6A9Hg
This also shows you who Andrew Tate is : https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KX-_ThbIeYY
I see the “A Bridgen Too Far” DS article has been removed. Which is good, as it was way too mealy-mouthed, namby-pamby, milquetoast Neville Chamberlain for DS.
https://dailysceptic.org/2023/01/14/a-bridgen-too-far/
Nooo, why would it be? Probably just another technical glitch in the DS matrix. Happens regularly around here.
By Jove you’re right! What skullduggery is at play here?? Are we in the FSU or are we in the Schrodinger’s cat version? Past my bedtime here so I’m off to climb the hill to Bedfordshire…Maybe it’ll have reappeared from the ether in the morning..