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Scientists Find Most PCR Test Results Do Not Indicate Infectious Virus, Question Test’s Status as “Gold Standard”

by Will Jones
20 June 2021 7:02 PM

How often do we hear that the PCR (polymerase chain reaction) test is the “gold standard” for detecting COVID-19 infection and thus for controlling and containing a COVID-19 epidemic? To question the accuracy of this test is supposedly part of the “misinformation” sceptics spread, which Ofcom, being guided by biased, Big Tech-funded, activist organisation Full Fact, aims to suppress.

In reality, serious questions about the proper use of PCR tests, particularly in mass screening programmes, have been asked since the technique was invented in 1985 and predate the Covid pandemic.

Since early 2020, there have been concerns that defining a “case” of COVID-19 merely in terms of a positive PCR test – with no consideration of clinical symptoms or the cycle threshold (Ct) of the test, which indicates the viral load of the patient – debases the concept of a clinical case and exaggerates the prevalence of the disease, fuelling alarm.

The issue was raised by Harvard epidemiologist Michael Mina and colleagues in the Lancet in February 2021, where they concluded that the cycle thresholds in reported test data were such that only a quarter to a half of positive PCR tests were likely to indicate the presence of infectious COVID-19. The rest, they argued, were detecting post-infectious viral particles, meaning relying on PCR testing was overstating the number of infectious cases of COVID-19 by a factor of between two and four.

This conclusion has now been underlined in a research letter in the Journal of Infection by seven scientists from the Universities of Münster and Essen. After analysing the test results from a large laboratory in Münster that amounted to 80% of all Covid PCR tests in the Münster region during March to November 2020, they found that “more than half of individuals with positive PCR test results are unlikely to have been infectious”. They thus conclude: “RT-PCR test positivity should not be taken as an accurate measure of infectious SARS-CoV-2 incidence.”

They also note that asymptomatic positives have higher average Ct values than symptomatic positives, meaning lower viral load and so less likely to be infectious.

Asymptomatic individuals with positive RT-PCR test results have higher Ct values and a lower probability of being infectious than symptomatic individuals with positive results. 

This isn’t to say that PCR tests are of no use in diagnosing COVID-19. PCR amplifies tiny amounts of genetic material until it can be detected, and can certainly be used to detect the presence of SARS-CoV-2. However, some doubt the validity of the PCR test protocols for COVID-19 and so question whether it is even detecting a real virus. However, since a large proportion of samples are currently being genetically sequenced to determine which variant they are, there can be no serious doubt that a real virus with known genetic structure is being detected in the tests.

When viral incidence is low or declining, that’s when the PCR test becomes much less reliable and tends greatly to overstate the prevalence of the disease (by two to four times, according to Michael Mina) and misdiagnoses people as being sick or infectious. When levels are surging and there is more infectious virus around it is much more likely to be accurate, at least in terms of indicating infectiousness, though questions about the proper use of the term “case” where no or mild symptoms are present remain.

Tags: False PositivesPCR Testing

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69 Comments
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Friedrich Stapß
Friedrich Stapß
4 years ago

STOP PARROTING THEIR LIES.

16
-2
NonCompliant
NonCompliant
4 years ago
Reply to  Friedrich Stapß

TBF, I think the pic shows Toby is taking the piss.

25
0
Friedrich Stapß
Friedrich Stapß
4 years ago
Reply to  NonCompliant

I suppose so. I kind of stopped looking at the illustrations because of the danger of inadvertently seeing Matt Hancock, and also my Richard Baker tolerance is surprisingly low. But even so. Blaring on about how ridiculous the talk of a Nepal variant is, merely adds wind to the gigantic fart balloon of the Nepal variant. We need to stop following their script.

14
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  Friedrich Stapß

It is the dominant myth that is being pushed currently, so – to examine it is fair enough.

Last edited 4 years ago by RickH
7
0
NonCompliant
NonCompliant
4 years ago

Will the media ever just stfu ? Even I’m embarrassed for them at this stage!

How much longer can they cry wolf? Maybe it’ll help people turn off their TV and ignore the MSM if they keep it up?

24
0
RickH
RickH
4 years ago
Reply to  NonCompliant

The answer to your initial question is simple : ‘No’. Why would they give up on the gift that keeps giving.

They will only when the GBP (Great British Public) gives them the bums’ rush.

7
-1
annicx
annicx
4 years ago
Reply to  NonCompliant

Because their job isn’t to inform us- it’s to sell advertising, sponsorship, etc. Once you realize this, the rest falls into place. I don’t actually have a problem with it as such- it’s just business- I’m amazed at how many people, (including my own family), don’t get this simple truth.

9
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
4 years ago

It’s a bit like someone standing in Hyde Park on a November day with a leaf blower shouting “There’s another leaf!”

35
0
Annie
Annie
4 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

But the wrong sort of leaf. The one that derails trains run by people who are too stupid to realise that leaves fall from trees at regular and predictable, seasonal intervals.

16
0
steve_w
steve_w
4 years ago

its just a cold – couldn’t are how many variants it has. they are variants of a cold

23
0
helenf
helenf
4 years ago
Reply to  steve_w

I don’t know how you can say that. I hear the Delta-plus variant is nepalling!

8
0
D B
D B
4 years ago

I don’t get how they can sequence these variants in the number of cases when the majority of tests are LFTs and done at home and presumably thrown in the bin? I don’t know I haven’t done one, but one would have to assume that every positive test is sequenced now for them to make the assertions about the numbers who are “dying” from each strain…

7
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
4 years ago
Reply to  D B

Maybe it’s just the erroneous output from a computer model badly written in Fortran 77 by a failed Physics professor. They like those.

11
0
steve_w
steve_w
4 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

If you are referring to that twat Ferguson, I suspect its more likely an etch-a-sketch

13
0
robnicholson
robnicholson
4 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

Hey don’t you diss Fortran 77!! A great language. The problem is always with the nut on the keyboard.

5
0
realarthurdent
realarthurdent
4 years ago
Reply to  robnicholson

It was, and is, a great language. I remember writing some as an undergraduate. Also PASCAL.

1
0
maggie may
maggie may
4 years ago
Reply to  realarthurdent

My personal favourite was always COBOL

0
-1
Annie
Annie
4 years ago
Reply to  D B

“So how many Scariant cases have we got, Witless?”
“How many do you want, Wankok?”

13
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
4 years ago

‘On Tuesday, the variant was found in 16 cases in the state of Maharashtra’ 

This may Help

Headline in Maharashtra Times 23/6/21

‘Sixteen door to door Delta Plus salesmen report theft of their suitcases and contents whilst attending the Maharashtra World Trade Fair’

Problem solved I think

10
0
Cecil B
Cecil B
4 years ago

Professor Bollox?

They are making it up now

13
0
Billy Suggers
Billy Suggers
4 years ago
Reply to  Cecil B

making it up now ? – they’ve been making it up since the start
& what’s more they’ve always been professing Bolloux

16
0
HelenaHancart
HelenaHancart
4 years ago

Did they ever isolate the original one? I can’t be asked to keep up these days.

7
0
Silke David
Silke David
4 years ago
Reply to  HelenaHancart

nope, and Samuel Eckerts 2Million Euros are still available!

5
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
4 years ago

A dozen cases eh?

That’s a bit of a worry in a population of 67 million.

Right – everything must shut.

Immediately.

16
0
I am Spartacas
I am Spartacas
4 years ago

….

E4Bk7CyVUAIkV1b.jpg
39
0
HaylingDave
HaylingDave
4 years ago

Oh for fuck’s sake, here we go again. Just piss off and screw yourselves with your speculative, unjustified, alarmist twaddle. Lord give me strength. Delta+, right from the brilliant PR marketing team that brought you “1 Meter Plus”.

12
0
J4mes
J4mes
4 years ago

Perfectly timed to ‘rip’ through the UK next month. This fictional phantom virus and its multiple mutants are the gift that keep on giving to the UK tyrants.

14
0
Hester
Hester
4 years ago

Goebbels said: ‘If you tell a lie big enough and keep repeating it, people will eventually come to believe it. The lie can be maintained only for such time as the State can shield the people from the political, economic and/or military consequences of the lie.  
‘It thus becomes vitally important for the State to use all of its powers to repress dissent, for truth is the mortal enemy of the lie, and thus by extension, the truth is the greatest enemy of the State.’

19
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
4 years ago
Reply to  Hester

Always worth repeating.

3
0
Bill Grates
Bill Grates
4 years ago

OK Toby , let me see I’ve got this straight,

an expert called Frank Bollox says that nothing is known, and this is sufficient for continuing restrictions by the govt.

Yesterday it was “…masks won’t be necessary “ , today it’s “…masks will be necessary “ oh and special people don’t need to be checked, quarantined or prove vax status, ie, some pigs are more equal than others.

Er still think there’s nothing wrong here ?

3
0
flyingjohn
flyingjohn
4 years ago

Only 3 weeks to the EUFA variant…………

1
0
Hester
Hester
4 years ago

So they have decided to use the Greek alphabet to name the variants, so the next version will be the Epsilon variant. How fantastically ironic is that? I mean you now seriously could not make this stuff up

1
0
IanC
IanC
4 years ago

I want to know what happened to the Triple Mutant Yorkshire variant. At least that had an interesting name.

1
0

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