This is a paper by Mikko Paunio M.D., M.H.S., an adjunct professor in general epidemiology at the University of Helsinki, Department of Public Health. In the course of his career he has worked at the University of Helsinki, Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, the European Commission, the World Bank, and the Ministry of Social Affairs and Health. His current position is Medical Counsellor, Ministry of Social Affairs and Health in Finland. You can see a list of his publications here.
Update: Mikko Paunio has written an addendum to his paper, referring to a number of surveys that have been published since he wrote it that seem to support his hypothesis that many more people have been exposed to the virus than the WHO originally estimated, that at least 50% of people infected are asymptomatic and that large cities like New York are close to herd immunity.
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Thank you for publishing this paper.
It is stunning that at this point we are still waiting for serious, systematic estimates of the IFR, of the type attempted here, and that policy makers continue to publicly cite fatality rates that they must know to be false because of the unknown but certainly large number of undiagnosed cases.
re. the silverman and washburne analysis – I think things have evolved and the IFR estimate has increased:
https://twitter.com/DanRosenheck/status/1251059513366626310
Still low mind you but 0.1% has been discounted I understand from the above discussion.
Also, this thread is interesting:
https://twitter.com/CovModel/status/1248733016425402369
Scottish serological results (which were completely absent from the press!). Similar calculation applied as per above paper.
No, the new Santa Clara serosurvey is bringing it back to low figures.
5. https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2020.04.14.20062463v1.full.pdf
An intelligent discussion on ANYTHING is a joy to behold. A logical and critical thought process is a rare thing and should be SHARED with EVERYONE you meet and everyone you have EVER KNOWN !!!
… ARISTOTELIAN logic !! ahhhhhhh those were the days…
With warmest regards
Michelle L’Esperance Williams
Absolutely! I’m so tired of talking to scared little bunnies who seem to think we should all be hiding under the covers. Even friends and family whom I always considered reasonable people are saying things like, ‘Ooh, hope it’s not too early to lift it…’. They seem to be hanging on the Government’s every word and no one is doing any critical thinking!
I’m a London bus driver and I tell people as much as possible they don’t need to wear a mask if they choose not to. Yesterday in the soaring temperatures I had an elderly lady get on with her trolley And with her mask on I told her she should take that off before she faints that can’t be healthy for you in this heat At that age. I shall not be one of the authorities little bed wetting puppets my London bus is a bus of freedom and self choice
The WHO looks increasingly like a front for the CCP, and that the world has been played by China. Xi Jinping will eventually be replaced, but there will still be the CCP. It, the CCP, is playing the long game, planning decades in advance while Western politicians expend most of their energies on strategies for re-election.