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Should We Reconsider Herd Immunity?

by Toby Young
4 April 2020 4:20 PM

No product launch in history was botched as badly as herd immunity. Introduced to the public on Friday March 13th in Sir Patrick Vallance’s media interviews, it enjoyed a short life before being pronounced dead and buried by the Sunday morning news shows.  First impressions last, and for most people hearing of the concept for the first time, its reputation was irrevocably tarnished. 

But its portrayal as an irresponsible, heartless policy to allow the disease to rampage indiscriminately through the country could not be more inaccurate.   Herd immunity has kept the human species alive for two million years. In the absence of a vaccine, herds (or populations, if you prefer) do not get wiped out by new viruses. Natural barriers are formed within the herd that contain and deprive the virus of space to expand.   Herd immunity is not a policy choice, in that it can’t be rejected and put back on the shelf. It will happen eventually, regardless of the interventions we make. It is a human conceit that we can control natural processes. Instead, rather like a martial art, the question is how to channel herd immunity to counter the virus. 

As Dr David L Katz argued in his New York Times article ‘Is our fight against coronavirus worse than the disease‘, the specific profile of COVID-19 lends itself to a herd immunity approach. The data “clearly points to clear and important risk differentials for severe coronavirus infection…based on age and prior health”. Unlike influenza, it does not kill children, meaning there’s very little risk of exposure for one of the most vulnerable groups in our societies. In the absence of a vaccine, a strategy of shielding the vulnerable, while allowing herd immunity to build amongst less vulnerable groups, can minimise the aggregate of direct and indirect costs. The current obsessive focus on a single metric –the number of deaths of people with COVID-19 – is counter-productive as it’s an incomplete measure of the true costs and benefits of policy choices. The impact on public health outcomes of poverty, lack of access to healthcare and basic services, will also have a massive, and currently unmeasured, effect. Katz proposes that policy choices should be based on “total harm minimisation”.

Swedish Professor Johan Giesecke, the first Chief Scientist of the European Center for Disease Prevention and Control, goes further. In a scathing interview, he challenges not only the assumptions behind Imperial College’s model and the UK policy choices based on that model, such as closing schools, but argues that the virus amounts to a “tsunami of a usually quite mild disease” that will wash over Europe regardless of the lockdown, with at least half of the population becoming infected. Public health policy choices by individual countries will, over time, have little impact on the number of deaths, but the costs of the lockdowns will far exceed those of a targeted strategy to protect the most vulnerable.  Giesecke goes further than Katz and considers the political as well as the economic costs, citing how Viktor Orban in Hungary has used the virus to suspend normal parliamentary democracy. (Our own Government isn’t far off doing that, either.) In an article from April 20th in China’s state propaganda organ Global Times, China clearly signals how it would like the crisis to end. It is entitled ‘Divisive US politics leads to democracy’s fast decay’.

It has now been six weeks since herd immunity was rejected, but it’s been happening in the background nonetheless. As Professor Ioannides of Stanford University has recently reported, based on serological tests for the presence of antibodies, the actual infection rate in the population may be 50 – 85x higher than the number of documented cases. The problem the UK now faces is how to quietly return to this strategy without alarming the public, having rejected it once for being too dangerous. Only with a holistic view of the costs and benefits of different policy choices we can make sensible decisions.

Further Reading

‘Herd immunity might still be key in the fight against coronavirus‘ by Matt Strauss, The Spectator, March 26th 2020

‘The free will of cavemen, herd immunity and the value of contrarian truth‘ by Barry Norris, Argonaut, March 30th 2020

‘PM’s virus adviser warns Britain might still need to adopt herd immunity in its fight against coronavirus as lockdown measures have “painted the country into a corner”‘ by Jack Elsum and Daniel Hussain, Daily Mail, April 4th 2020

‘Is our fight against coronavirus worse than the disease‘ by David L Katz, New York Times, March 20th 2020

‘Infect Everyone: How Herd Immunity Could Work for Poor Countries‘ by Ari Altstedter, Bloomberg News, April 22nd 2020

‘Coronavirus dies out within 70 days no matter how we tackle it, claims professor‘ by Sarah Knapton and Dominic Gilbert, The Telegraph, The Telegraph, April 23rd 2020

‘India should protect elderly and take herd immunity plunge: Thomas Friedman‘, India Today, April 28th 2020

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14 Comments
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A Y M
A Y M
2 years ago

Roll on the clown show.
He literally looks like a perverted clown.
They are rubbing it into normal peoples faces.
Of course it’s just hysteria that’s whipped up to distract, anger and confuse the masses while they get on with controlling our power, transport and food networks.

Last edited 2 years ago by A Y M
178
-2
jeepybee
jeepybee
2 years ago
Reply to  A Y M

Said this to my friend earlier, clearly he has some fetish about it, nipples all pokey outy like that. What a fucking weirdo. Actually, no. What a poor man. What a fucking weird society for clapping at this mentally ill man.

185
-1
A Y M
A Y M
2 years ago
Reply to  jeepybee

It gets more ludicrous.
Apparently this “teacher” teaches DT (Shop) to his students using power tools while manoeuvring behind his fetish boobs.

Last edited 2 years ago by A Y M
64
-1
jeepybee
jeepybee
2 years ago
Reply to  A Y M

Remember when long hair had to be tied back? Inclusivity overwrites that now.

62
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
2 years ago
Reply to  jeepybee

What I’m struggling with is how can a person who has the mental capabilities to be a teacher simultaneously lose all of their faculties and be reduced to this? I mean, how can both realities possibly be true? I’m still thinking this is some elaborate Alex Stein-type skit. Somebody pushing the boundaries in order to see just how insane schools have become and what level of lunacy they’ll tolerate in the name of being ‘inclusive’, and then highlighting this ridiculous example to all. That’s the only way I can get my head around this car crash horror show. No school is going to want their reputation dragged through the mud and be a national ( or international ) laughing stock, so heads need to roll within the authorities who’ve allowed this farce to go ahead.
It reminds me of just what this child psychiatrist was saying about the state of educational establishments. This article is a good example.

https://www.bitchute.com/video/ML7ct8a53Sre/

Last edited 2 years ago by Mogwai
40
-2
psychedelia smith
psychedelia smith
2 years ago
Reply to  A Y M

Who downvoted this post? That’s hilarious. Make yourself known, we’d love to hear from you.

2
-1
Amtrup
Amtrup
2 years ago

And this despite the fact that the school’s dress code apparently expressly forbids students from wearing clothing that visibly reveals/shows/displays nipples.

Last edited 2 years ago by Amtrup
85
0
Jane G
Jane G
2 years ago

This is deeply insulting to women – on a par with blacking-up.

193
-2
jeepybee
jeepybee
2 years ago
Reply to  Jane G

Absolutely. It’s like some parody written by the Little Britain duo, ironically they’re all for this nonsense now…

87
0
1984imminent
1984imminent
2 years ago

Not even wearing the face nappy correctly. On means on.

50
0
JohnK
JohnK
2 years ago
Reply to  1984imminent

Maybe its designed to stop her eating too much, or alternatively, to keep her mouth shut.Take your pick!

29
0
jeepybee
jeepybee
2 years ago
Reply to  1984imminent

How cute is it that it’s pink, like his ruined cardigan?

21
0
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago

Its not ‘gender expression’, its ‘mental illness’. Stop pandering to it and challenge it.*

*I know they won’t. They love a bit of this

115
0
Laicey
Laicey
2 years ago

There is certainly a poor choice of boobies there.

Rather than throw fun at people it might be worth looking at the reasons. For most trans I have met they envy women because they are allowed to look good. If makeup and nice clothes were acceptable for both sexes you would get a lot less of the trans people..

7
-61
Lancer
Lancer
2 years ago
Reply to  Laicey

Are you suggesting the builder with the trousers half down and his crack showing isn’t attractive? I’m messing with you of course, but we don’t all look that cavalier? I’m pretty sure men wouldn’t look any better wearing makeup either, and in all seriousness I wish women would wear less themselves. It’s the imperfections that matter and create the beauty as a whole. I do think there is a connection with the cardboard cutout media presenter and the trans movement though – perhaps that’s why they’re over represented in the mainstream (genuinely so, with no need for affirmative action) but this concentrating on image has turned in to an obsession for some. Maybe the trans psyche is similar to an anorexic or someone with bulimia – in their minds they think they somehow look wrong but make it even worse in their pursuit to correct it (but in those cases we’re not encouraging it, which is the big difference).

38
-1
NeilParkin
NeilParkin
2 years ago
Reply to  Laicey

Come on… Men and women can dress well and look good. Who is stopping them.? Thats a weak point to justify this.

We used to have a thing called ‘cross-dressing’ or Transvestism, in which if you were a male and wanted to dress as female, then you did it in your own home, or a club in town or whatever. If thats what you like, I dont have a problem with that.

What I have a problem with is that someone can turn up to a school dressed like this to teach and we are making excuses to allow it. This may be their thing, but what about issues of safety for the children. Its clear that this person has issues with understanding where the boundaries are. Not a thought is given to the 14 year old girls and boys who have to be ‘taught’ by this person. Obviously their feelings don’t matter, because its all about the perversion.

There has been a growing movement around ‘trans’ that everyone should just accept everything. I say no. We should not tolerate completely inappropriate behaviour, especially around children.

Last edited 2 years ago by NeilParkin
84
0
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago

Grossly insulting to both men and women because it respects neither.

This horror should not in any way be allowed in front of children and those responsible for allowing this should be locked up.

123
0
Epi
Epi
2 years ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

You’ve got admire his balls though.

17
-1
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
2 years ago
Reply to  Epi

They should be cut off.

11
-1
exbrit
exbrit
2 years ago

What we should all be asking is why we had not even thought about this gender theatre even five years ago. Almost certainly this ludicrous idea that gender is an expression rather than a function of biology has been created by bad actors using social media. Isn’t it likely that anti-Western entities such as the PRC / CCP have engineered this issue to undermine and weaken our culture? All the bogeyman stories about Russia backing Trump are looking at the wrong side. The cultural Marxism we are seeing played out in ways that destroy education and the nuclear family is where the troll farms have focused their efforts.

78
0
Freddy Boy
Freddy Boy
2 years ago
Reply to  exbrit

Spot on , we are under attack ! It’s a new form of Warfare & Warfare it most certainly is !..

32
0
Human Resource 19510203
Human Resource 19510203
2 years ago

When I was a youngster people like this would be in the local loony-bin. It’s still the best place for them.

45
0
DevonBlueBoy
DevonBlueBoy
2 years ago
Reply to  Human Resource 19510203

Loony bins don’t exist anymore, it’s all ‘care in the community’ now. All the money saved goes towards paying all the six figure salaries to the hordes of “Directors” that infest the NHS.

34
0
Human Resource 19510203
Human Resource 19510203
2 years ago
Reply to  DevonBlueBoy

I know. I’m lamenting their passing.

7
0
Epi
Epi
2 years ago

Reminds me of that old school boy joke about a girl who goes to her doctor with chest pains.

Doctor “Big Breaths”

Young girl “ Yes and I’m only sixteen”

Boom boom.

17
0
Covid-1984
Covid-1984
2 years ago

Can you imagine her school reporting. Your son isn’t paying attention 🤣🤣🤣

25
0
Mogwai
Mogwai
2 years ago

I’d be totally pulling my kid out of school if this is the level of Clown World absurdity that I was expected to tolerate as a parent, and from adults that we entrust the care of our easily-influenced children to. This looks too obscene to even be a carnival costume! And do you think the loonies in charge allow him to use the female toilets and changing room? Sick! Nope, parents should all withdraw their kids en masse until this perverse, mentally ill excuse for a role-model is removed. He makes this guy look positively pedestrian;

“Meet your new woodwork teacher.” ROFL
https://www.bbc.co.uk/programmes/p00z3yf9/p00z3y6s

Last edited 2 years ago by Mogwai
35
0
sarah
sarah
2 years ago

Don’t you think he’s doing this to show how crazy the inclusivity obsession is, and to push the illogic to an extreme??

8
-1
Nobody2022
Nobody2022
2 years ago

Joe Biden says “the pandemic is over”.

How long before people start saying his brain must have been affected by Long Covid?

6
0
BurlingtonBertie
BurlingtonBertie
2 years ago

Aside from the psychiatric issues of this individual, there is something known as professionalism & appropriate clothing for a given situation. How that individual is dressed is unprofessional. Full stop. Nobody can then jump on the bandwagon of wokery to ‘defend’ the individual from ‘hate’ speech.
Any woman teacher who turned up at school dressed like that would be hauled over the coals for dressing inappropriately, & rightly so. School is meant to be a learning environment which includes knowing how to present oneself to the world in a given situation. Push the boundaries by all means (I did design & make my own school uniform so that it was anything but uniform but still kept within the boundaries – just) but keep it appropriate. A teacher is meant to be a professional. They have to earn respect from the pupils & this particular individual is not at all respected by the pupils in their class.

20
0
ebygum
ebygum
2 years ago

What a horrible time to be a child when society actively promotes and defends the sexual predilections of adults while not protecting children or giving the slightest shit about the effect it may have on them……
It’s a fricking school not a drag club!!

29
0
RW
RW
2 years ago

In the end, if some idiot absolutely wants to dress like the idiot he is, there’s no real reason to stop him from that. He’ll end up being everybody’s laughing stock and (very likely) on of those teachers who get completely ignored by their pupils. Obviously, a dismal clown like this shouldn’t be hired as teacher as he’ll never effectively perform as one but that’s a different problem.

3
-4
psychedelia smith
psychedelia smith
2 years ago

This brain damaged nonsense just needs to keep happening and getting more absurd. It’s the only way it will end.

4
0

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