do you know what it will be?
yes it is a limited period over which cases move from growing to shrinking. It is an feature of the coronavirus epidemic that it makes such sudden moves. I wished I could explain them.
How do you know what the numbers refer to? What is behind the symptoms recorded?
I hope those who collate the data go to lengths to ensure what they record is coherent with other methods. There is no system to ensure they are all coherent, it is uncertain, but if one source is grossly out compared to the others, they are said to lack TCB, trust, certainty and belief. Ultimately it is a type of opinion poll, it is hoped the average smoothes out the FUD, fear uncertainty and doubt. It can lead to groupthink. It is a problem.
It is interesting that you particularise and relativise clinicians expertise
I do not think I did that, I meant that opinions are expensive to measure and assemble into data, I am careful about the words I use and it is interesting that you picked out that particular phrase, since I wanted to say exactly what I meant in a way that you would understand , evidently I failed there ...
"their own anecdotal notions", this has been a feature driving this 'pandemic'. What is the nature of its reality?
I had not realized this was a feature driving this pandemic, though I can see what you mean. I'll answer the first part of your question about anecdotal notions in a minute. First let me say. This is the first Internet Pandemic, hence there has been the technological ability for a torrent of opinions to come forth. And it is expensive to weigh and assemble notions. And we today have far more notions flooding around us, which are valuable but which are trash? This makes coherency hard, and that is the feature of this Pandemic .
I'll have to be quick . In the same way that there is no system to ensure all sources of data are coherent,there is no way to measure notions or to ensure all or any individual notions are coherent, a sort of truth emerges. It is the stuff of great novels. It takes decades of consistent work to maximise one's TCB and it is sometimes destroyed in one moment of madness (a Grenfell towers event). And that, in a nutshell, is why it is expensive to make sense of individual notions, one would need an army of wise men. It is why public enquiries take decades!
last night my nose and eyes were itchy and now I have a runny-nose. I am very afraid I have covid, this shows how the signifying atmosphere establishing by the enforced behavioural routines that function as vehicles of for an experience of the efficacy of the representations of the pathogen affects sensibility.
I won't discuss treatments versus prevention since it is deep into Conspiracy Theory land, so I am loathe to get involved. But your point about symptoms is fair. A year and a bit ago, I was laid up in hospital with a covid-type related illness (clots), but not as a covid19 patient. I was there for week after a week, I mentioned to one of the nurses "excuse me miss, my nose and eyes are itchy and I have a runny-nose", I was very sternly admonished! "we asked you when you came in if you felt ill!!". I had been brought in at night by ambulance, in a coma, yet it was assumed to be my fault if the whole ward caught covid19. From that day on, on the ward, I was treated like a rabid dog!
Your ornate use of the English language is hard to break up, but I sense you are talking about the lazy thinking that is so apparent everywhere these days, it's as if the whole population of England has been given mogadon, to disable their thinking faculties.
When was the entire nation dumbed down? When did we switch from Turn on, tune in, drop out. to Turn on, tune in, nod off? Some drastic change in our culture has occured and I fear it is a steep slope to get back to normal .
I never get hay fever but I noticed last night my nose and eyes were itchy and now I have a runny-nose. I am very afraid I have covid, this shows how the signifying atmosphere establishing by the enforced behavioural routines that function as vehicles of for an experience of the efficacy of the representations of the pathogen affects sensibility. This is why it is better to just treat infected people rather than focus on the healthy population. Maybe public health should focus on treatments, prevention appears to be just a medium for powerful interests to pursue political ends by other means.
Maybe you don’t suffer from pollen allergy (hay fever), but the timing of it all varies quite a bit because of the weather. E.g. grass pollen bothers me, and it was late this year c.f. last year. All gone now, though. I think there are quite a few at the margin who don’t worry about it much, even though they are troubled by it a bit (normally). It’s just about possible that a degree of misappropriation has taken place with the latest scare.
Treatment would be eminently sensible if it were not for the criminal pretence, maintained by WHO and SAGE's around the world, that there are no effective treatments. All to support the emergency authorisation of a novel gene treatment.
I'm only discussing rates of change in ZOE, not absolute case counts, variation. I doubt there is a sudden change underway in hay fever. So that point is invalid.
In case you hadn't grasped this, ZOE is not some inviolable absolte its merely an app through which users may report symptoms. If the symptoms the users are required to report are stated as equivalant to hay fever, thats what they will report. The changes to previous seasonal hayfever are irrelevant; as is your sugegetion that some point is 'invalid'
Zoe seem to have done two things to utterly screw up their data points.
Firstly expanding the list of symptoms to include literally hayfever and colds. Given its a symptom self-reporting system this causes huge inflation of cases.
Then last week they changed their methodology calculating active cases to one that massively increased the case rate in every single area.
Ultimately whereas before they were an accurate predictor of cases the new changes mean they've massively over-reading and opposite trending compared to ONS, daily data and all other surveys.
Rather than a predictor, its now a statistical outlier.
Its effectively useless now due to those changes. The data out of it is utter junk.
