I think the third wave is washed up.
This plot is from the main page of LS, and I'd like to offer view on what it portrays:
The sudden change in the direction of the growth is explicable when we realise we are witnessing the precise moment when the remaining unvaxxed population reached sufficient herd immunity to stop exponential growth. It occurred on July 2. There are 6.6m unvaxxed adults, with 2/3 of new cases are among the unvaxxed ( 20k). So every 3 days, 1% of the unvaxxed become newly protected via infection.The peak in the plot shows the point where herd immunity occurred in the unvaxxed population.Since the vaccinated are older, more susceptible, that group still waits to become herd immune, so to speak, it cannot be far off now. This is a bald statement, so I'll drill deep into the data around July 2. This is a plot of the daily changes in growth rate around that date. I did this some days ago for a different purpose, but it helps underscore Mike Yeadon's principle of looking at all different types of data. It is what it is. The plot shows the increase/decrease in daily growth in cases. It peaks, good and proper on July 3 (near enough.) But there is still daily growth. This means growth in one cohort ceased, but continued in another cohort. This is exactly the same as the LS plot above. If I trust the ZOE data, I confident enough to say, the 3rd wave is practicaaly washed up since july 2. The unvaccinated have started to 'not get covid19' under their own steam.
One more day of data and the trend of lower growth each day continues.
It is even possible to see a faint trace of it in the very final data point in the raw plot.
I am wondering if this is the peak in the summer wave. It would be just in time, from a political point of view.
I have been asked how you can have herd immunity in one group but not the other.
This is because the two groups are not just split by vaccination, they are also split by age, the vaccinated group is older and does not mingle much with the unvaccinated group. Anyway, that's all I can think of to explain it.
Forget population wide herd immunity - most of the 40+ age group as Astrazenica which efficacy against infection is far far too low to ever do it.
Herd immunity is going to take years once enough people catch it.
Forget population wide herd immunity
We, as a community, are satisafactorily immune when people die of usual things instead of covid19. It will become boring, and hence the pandemic will end.
