27 March 2021  /  Updated 17 July 2021
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third wave is washed up

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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

I think the third wave is washed up.

This plot is from the main page of LS, and I'd like to offer view on what it portrays:

The sudden change in the direction of the growth is explicable when we realise we are witnessing the precise moment when the remaining unvaxxed population reached sufficient herd immunity to stop exponential growth. It occurred on July 2. There are 6.6m unvaxxed adults, with 2/3 of new cases are among the unvaxxed ( 20k). So every 3 days, 1% of the unvaxxed become newly protected via infection.The peak in the plot shows the point where herd immunity occurred in the unvaxxed population.Since the vaccinated are older, more susceptible, that group still waits to become herd immune, so to speak, it cannot be far off now. This is a bald statement, so I'll drill deep into the data around July 2. This is a plot of the daily changes in growth rate around that date. I did this some days ago for a different purpose, but it helps underscore Mike Yeadon's principle of looking at all different types of data. It is what it is. The plot shows the increase/decrease in daily growth in cases. It peaks, good and proper on July 3 (near enough.) But there is still daily growth. This means growth in one cohort ceased, but continued in another cohort. This is exactly the same as the LS plot above. If I trust the ZOE data, I confident enough to say, the 3rd wave is practicaaly washed up since july 2. The unvaccinated have started to 'not get covid19' under their own steam.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

One more day of data and the trend of lower growth each day continues.

It is even possible to see a faint trace of it in the very final data point in the raw plot.

I am wondering if this is the peak in the summer wave. It would be just in time, from a political point of view.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
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I have been asked how you can have herd immunity in one group but not the other.
This is because the two groups are not just split by vaccination, they are also split by age, the vaccinated group is older and does not mingle much with the unvaccinated group. Anyway, that's all I can think of to explain it.


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Splatt
(@splatt)
Joined: 9 months ago
Posts: 1618
 

Forget population wide herd immunity - most of the 40+ age group as Astrazenica which efficacy against infection is far far too low to ever do it.

Herd immunity is going to take years once enough people catch it.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

Forget population wide herd immunity

We, as a community, are satisafactorily immune when people die of usual things instead of covid19. It will become boring, and hence the pandemic will end.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

The Zoe app is now clearly indicating a sudden peak in the cases, a very familiar signature in the data, the we have seen several time already.
Here's the raw plot

And here is another plot that zooms in on the peak to see each daily change

In a week, growth collapsed from 12k extra new cases per day to just 5k extra new cases per day. It's another sudden end to a long explosive burst of infection, it's typical corona virus, end of surge behaviour that we have seen so often before. I still have no idea what causes these sudden lunges and lurches. To me the closest analogy are those motorway conditions where the traffic is moving well and a small incident causes it to suddenly all to come to a juddering halt.

The most obvious regional beneficiary of this collapse in cases is scotland, shown here as cases collapse.


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amanuensis
(@amanuensis)
Joined: 6 months ago
Posts: 67
 

I think the third wave is washed up.

This plot is from the main page of LS, and I'd like to offer view on what it portrays:

Screenshot 2021-07-10 at 21.18.07.png

You can't split the impact of herd immunity between vaccinated and unvaccinated like that; there is one human population and one set of infected humans that might infect others.

Thus the delayed peak in vaccinated is very odd. Normal theories of disease propagation don't explain it.

It might be explained by the vaccinated population having a much longer period of pre-symptomatic covid compared with the unvaccinated.

If this is the case then pertinent questions might be whether they are infectious in that period, and for how long it lasts.

We still know very little about the behaviour of covid in the vaccinated, and particularly the behaviour of the new partial escape variants. This is rather worrying given how many have been vaccinated.

But that's what you get when you compress years worth of clinical trials into 6 months and then try to jab everyone in sight.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

there is one human population and one set of infected humans that might infect others.

Yet that is what appears to have occurred . And it is a slightly inconvenient fact.

Normal theories of disease propagation don't explain it.

That is normally regarded as the point when "Normal theories of disease" are rejected, and a new theory is adopted. Your theory only needs to be disproved once, and it is game over for your theory.
It might be explained by the vaccinated population having a much longer period of pre-symptomatic covid compared with the unvaccinated.

Might be? But that is not the Normal theory of disease propagation, so you are stuck in a rut. But even if it were so, which it you think it might be, why would cases in the unvaccinated suddenly surge downward at the exact same instant? It's worse than a rut for you, it's a dead end for your illogical ideas.
are they infectious in that period, and for how long it lasts.
As I say, that is not the Normal theory of disease propagation. You are hoist by your own Petard.Perhaps you are saying things you don't really mean? Perhaps we have uncovered have your hidden agenda against vaccination. There is am economical explanation for your antics, if you could only answer one question honestly: would you prefer vaccines to not work?
.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

Forget population wide herd immunity - most of the 40+ age group as

Astrazenica which efficacy against infection is far far too low to ever do it.
[.quote]
AZ is what it is (you are on as hobby horse there) but there is also the huge difference in social habits between people of say 20 an people if (e.g. )55 or so,

Herd immunity is going to take years

Perhaps, but I only care once people stop dying of it, which is now onwards. btw: long covid is a crock of shit, people need to be much less lazy.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

the third wave is washed up ..

The other, famous physical world analogy to this abrupt reversal in a trend is the transistor, the transistor affects enormous change to throughput (current .)Via tiny alterations in the control, hence the transistor is referred to as an amplifier. The device is better described as an inverse amplifier. It certainly amplifies the control signal. Hence it seems to me that the theory wrt growth in disease needs an update. When an infectious disease is close to its maximum capacity of growth, only very slight increase in the control factor causes an instant slump in cases. Such as we see here, today:

Students of electronics will recognise the curve at once of course. but for those who are a bit rusty:

So strangely the virus has somehow got itself into a configuration where we see typical signatures of amplification. Here is a real signature of a transistor.


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

Prof Spector has now realised what I knew a few days ago, the third wave is washed up.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gwUSC6rid4A


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lordsnooty
(@lordsnooty)
Joined: 3 weeks ago
Posts: 76
Topic starter  

Astrazenica which efficacy against infection is far far too low to ever do it.

nonetheless, case growth seems to have halted.


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Mark76
(@mark76)
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 9
 

Is today's upward tick in new cases parr for the course or something we should keep a weather eye on?


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Mark76
(@mark76)
Joined: 7 months ago
Posts: 9
 

Up again for a second day though still lower than the same day last week.


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Splattt
(@splattt)
Joined: 6 days ago
Posts: 14
 

Suspect it'll go up. Step 4 will be seen from this week (so look for the 18-30 group in particular for a rise).
700,000 people "isolating" due to them using a dodgy app will start to expire soon.
Also, i think importantly, the weather is crap. Fewer people outdoors, more people crowding indoors.
I still think there's a decent chance of hitting 100k/day by the end of September.


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