Infection rate in second dose individuals now 20% higher than seen in the unvaccinated for individuals vaccinated over 4 months ago.
@ewloe It is a combination of waning of neutralising antibodies but levels of disease enhancing antibodies remaining elevated (or waning less quickly).
We'll see the impact of this next winter, by which point neutralising antibody levels will be much lower and as a consequence we'll have substantially increased levels of disease in the vaccinated cw the unvaccinated (I'd estimate between two- and three-fold higher, although we're in the early days of the 'switcharound' and it isn't very clear how things will progress -- but 2-3 fold is the trajectory seen in the current data).
We'll also have a new variant to worry about -- but the characteristics of that are currently unknown as we don't know which one it will be.
Impossible to get any data from that. Delta changed infection dynamics severely 3-4 months ago.
PHE figures suggest a VE of 30-40% against infection now which looks about right
