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Unvaccinated more likely to die from COVID

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Posts: 142
Topic starter
(@lip09am)
Joined: 4 years ago

The latest ONS stats found the covid mortality rate in England for unvaxxed to be 849.7 per 100,000. Among the double jabbed it is as little as 26.2 per 100,000 - 32 times less. 

This suggests the vaccine is effective at preventing death. 

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4 Replies
(@ewloe)
Joined: 3 years ago

Posts: 319

It's meaningless without knowing if it is a case fatailty rate or an infection fatality rate.

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(@lip09am)
Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 142

@ewloe what's the difference?

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(@ewloe)
Joined: 3 years ago

Posts: 319

@lip09am a case of covid19 is an infection that makes a person poorly.An infection may or may not amount to a case.

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 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 615
Posted by: @lip09am

The latest ONS stats found the covid mortality rate in England for unvaxxed to be 849.7 per 100,000. Among the double jabbed it is as little as 26.2 per 100,000 - 32 times less. 

This suggests the vaccine is effective at preventing death. 

 

Look at Fig 1 here...

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/birthsdeathsandmarriages/deaths/articles/deathsinvolvingcovid19byvaccinationstatusengland/deathsoccurringbetween2januaryand2july2021

..which tells a very different story.

Most "unvaxinated" deaths in this report happened at the height of the winter flu season in  Q1 2021 while most high risk people for SARs CoV 2 infection were not vaccinated. The 50% vax point was well into Q2 2021.

https://www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19latestinsights/vaccines#:~:text=Estimated%20vaccination%20rates%20remained%20high,received%20at%20least%20two%20doses.

 

If you look at Fig 1 in Q2 the vax v unvax rates converge. 

So the actual story is old people who are high risk die and vax status has little to do with mortality rates. Statically speaking. 

Which is why you should be very dubious of "factoids" pushing the narrative. That report is How to Lie With Statistics 101 level stuff.

As an aside any statistical epidemiologist who signed off on the ONS morality report should be prosecuted for gross professional negligence.  Almost 20% total mortality rated from "COVID" yet the viral pneumonia / ARDS mortality numbers have barely budged from 10 year range.  What a load of total bollocks. None of those ONS numbers can be compared statically with historical pandemics without a very serious restatement because they are so compromised. We are well into ENRON accounting territory here.  In fact more like Robert Maxwell accounting territory by this stage. 

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Posts: 304
(@jane-g)
Reputable Member
Joined: 4 years ago

Depends on the timeframes used and the definition of 'unvaccinated.

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Posts: 847
 TTT
(@ttt)
Joined: 3 years ago

Another way to look at the situation is compare the cases and deaths over two 6 month periods over the last year. What is different between these time periods?

Obviously vaccination is the answer.

For 1 Nov 2020 to 30 April 2021, there were 3,353,948 confirmed cases and 80,662 covid deaths. So a ratio of 2.4%

For the following 6 months, 1/5/21 to 31/10,21, there were 4,681,522 cases and 13,120 deaths. So a ratio of 0.28%.

Observant people will notice that this rate of death is somewhat smaller in the vaccinated period.

 

 

 

 

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2 Replies
 jmc
(@jmc)
Joined: 4 years ago

Posts: 615

@thinksaboutit 

Does not work that way. Respiratory infection deaths are seasonal.  Always have been.  As is the mortality age demographic and overall mortality rates. Using your rather facile logic it can be equally  show that the death rate is relative to number of daylight hours. Or ice cream consumption for that matter.

Plus a case in those statistics does not equal an active SARs CoV 2 infection.  Get back to us when you have the high prevalence antigen test and / or strand specific RT/PCR test result numbers for those periods. You know, the tests that are actual clinical tests for active infections and not some de facto random result proxy test. Which is basically the numbers you quoted.

So another case of GIGO. As we say in the business. 

 

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 TTT
(@ttt)
Joined: 3 years ago

Posts: 847

@jmc

Infections are may be seasonal, yet there were many more in the second six months. This is measured on a like for like basis, so cannot be denied. It would seem that any summer effect is more than offset by the delta variant's additional transmissability and the cancellation of mitigating restrictions.

Yet, the death count is so much lower.

Your rationale to support your anti-vaxx stance is just arm waving and does not address the facts.

What will you say when the death to infection ratio is so much better in the coming winter compared to the prior one?

What you call facile is actually quite clearly evidence against your position and quite inconvenient for you.

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