I’ve written before about the World Mortality Database, compiled by researchers Ariel Karlinsky and Dmitry Kobak. It provides estimates of excess mortality for all the countries around the world in which reliable figures are available.
These estimates aren’t as good as the age-adjusted excess mortality estimates that the ONS has computed for European countries, but they’re the best we’ve got for making international comparisons. (The reason they aren’t as good is that they’re based on all-cause deaths, rather than age-standardised mortality rates.)
At the present time, estimates are available for 117 countries, comprising a large share of the world’s population. What do they reveal about which countries have done well and which haven’t, during the pandemic?
All the countries with high levels of excess mortality are in Latin America and Central Asia. And the top three – with exceptionally high levels of excess mortality – are all Latin American countries with large indigenous populations, suggesting that such populations might be particularly susceptible to Covid.
More illustrative, though, is the bottom of the chart. And here one thing really stands out: of the 15 countries with zero or negative excess mortality, no less than 14 are islands (the other being Brunei).
And of the 18 countries with 1% excess mortality or less, fully 17 have either one or zero land borders. The Dominican Republic only borders Haiti; and Brunei only borders Malaysia. (The exception is Malaysia, which borders Thailand, Brunei and Indonesia.)
After two years of lockdowns, mask mandates, and vaccine passports, it seems the best strategy for dealing with Covid is… be a small country with few land borders.
Much has been made of Australia and New Zealand’s success in containing the virus – up until December of 2021. But clearly this owes much more to their geography than to the specific policies they imposed. After all, almost all the countries at the top of the chart imposed stringent lockdowns as well.
A fair summary of the evidence in the chart above would be: Lockdowns can work to contain the virus, at least for a time, if you combine them with strict border controls. But once the virus gets a foothold in your country, they make very little difference.
Another thing to notice is that the East Asian countries are still concentrated at the bottom of the chart, strongly suggesting that some cultural or biological factor – perhaps greater prior immunity – explains the success of that region.
What lessons are there for the next coronavirus or influenza pandemic? Containment may be viable strategy for small islands and peripheral states with few land borders. But for the vast majority of countries, it isn’t worth pursuing. Instead, those countries should plan for focused protection.
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Good article. They are vastly more expensive to consumers – 2 or 3 x more is a reasonable approximation when all the subsidies, grants, etc are factored in. I have seen 5-10 x in some cost comparisons.
1-They are not ‘green’. Far from it. None of these technologies are Gaia friendly. Don’t let these half wits promote themselves as eco-angels with ‘green’.
2-Hypocritically, all of this tech is reliant on abiotic, clean, naturally replenishing hydrocarbons from sourcing to production, to implementation and operations. 30 Tonnes of steel per bird chopper etc etc Therefore – it is not, nut-zero neutral whatsoever.
I assume that “balancing the grid” is a euphemism for lighting a gas turbine and burning some hydrocarbons as efficiently as physics will let you.
Maybe not. I think it might be when we beg* France to direct some of their nuclear generated electricity over to us instead of to Germany.
*Beg: Assume the position.
Some real time details of the interconnection links here: https://grid.iamkate.com/ There is a tiny bit of storage in hydroelectric form as well. More details about it all here: https://www.nationalgrideso.com/electricity-explained/how-do-we-balance-grid
If renewable energy is cheap but prices are going up then someone is profiteering.
A lot of the profits go offshore
https://davidturver.substack.com/p/offshore-wind-follow-the-money
While you state that FiTs are index linked, it might be worth noting that September RPI is used at the start of each fiscal year. That’s baked into each contract. It also might be worth observing that incoming cash from FiT is not regarded as taxable income by the HMRC; makes sense, otherwise they’d be issuing cash in one hand and clawing it back in the other.
If it had been taxable, it might have discouraged certain customers to invest in the kit at all, when doing the sums on the investment.
The question that everyone needs to ask of anyone advocating renewables is “when do prices start to fall?”
Unlike fossil fuels, with prices fluctuating at the whim of international players, renewables costs should be quite easy to predict with a degree of certainty, therefore it is possible to show a clear dated path to the nirvana of cheap power.
Over to you greenies, a simple spreadsheet will do.
I hear all the time on mainstream news (BBC, SKY etc and even on GB News) activists telling the viewers that “renewables are now cheaper than coal and gas” ——–THIS IS FALSE. It is a blatant LIE. On a level playing field with no subsidy coal is by far the cheapest way to generate electricity. Some of us might remember the words of Obama when he said “Sure people can open a coal fired plant, it is just that it will bankrupt them”. The reason all over the western world for this is the picking of winners and losers by government. Western governments choose Renewables as their winner and they then set about hammering fossil fuels with carbon taxes and other mandates and environmental costs to force coal out of business. ———The other thing to take into account is that wind and sun are part time energy. Coal and gas are full time. So comparing the two can only be done if you take into account the back up required when the wind does not blow, which is often, and that backup mainly comes from gas which has to sit ticking over, and costing money till the wind stops. ——-Also please take a look at your electricity bill since we started using wind. A three year old could easily see that their bill has virtually trebled in this time. So much for all the “Free Wind”.
Send to everyone you know.