In February 2023, the UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said that rising sea levels will cause a “mass exodus of entire populations on a biblical scale”, noting in particular the effect around the river basins at the foot of the Himalayas. Rising sea levels have been the poster alarm scare for decades with their associated riff of billions of climate refugees on the move in the near future. As is usual, it is a shame that mere facts get in the way of unhinged political rants. In 2016, a Dutch research project found that since 1985 the world had actually gained more land than was lost to water. So far as the river basins of the Himalayas are concerned, a recent science paper discovered that Bangladesh had experienced a 13.7% growth in its coasts since 1990.
Commenting on the net growth of Earth land mass, National Geographic noted that it amounted to an area the size of Lake Michigan. The changes are spread across the planet and are both natural and man-made. The Dutch researchers at the Deltares Research Institute used Landsat satellite data to map the changes around the world. The mapping scientists were “surprised” at their results. according to National Geographic. More surprise was expressed by the magazine that “coastal areas across the globe had a net gain of more than 13,000 km2”.
With his ludicrous “global boiling” trope, Guterres is little more than a high status ranting fool. But he is plugged into the sea level scare that is ubiquitous throughout the Net Zero narrative. As early as 1989, UN activist Noel Brown was talking about entire nations being wiped off the map by 2000. One sixth of Bangladesh would be flooded and this would displace a quarter of its coastal population, amounting to up to 25 million people. The online science publication No Tricks Zone notes that the opposite has happened, with the total land surface of the country expanding from 134,382 km2 to 137,656 km2. The coasts around the Bay of Bengal have grown by 13.7% to 20,330 km2, while the population has swelled to around 173 million.
Of course, human activity can increase land mass with many reclamation projects seen across the world. But natural processes are often downplayed in the rush to promote mass psychosis and push populations to accept the Net Zero fantasy. Many small island states in the Pacific are growing in size due to natural accretions but that doesn’t stop a worldwide green campaign to divert huge amounts of cash to pay for climate ‘reparations’. These obvious shakedowns, much favoured by planet-saving types who attend COP meetings, are sometimes referred to as poor people in rich countries paying rich people in poor countries. Land itself is often on the move and in many places across the northern hemisphere the gradual post-glacial retreat of the ice sheets has led to substantial and continuing rebounds.
No Tricks Zone observes that the recent Bangladesh land expansion was a consequence of receding relative sea levels along the coasts and synchronous seaward coastal land growth. It also notes that coasts are growing elsewhere, sourcing a 2016 BBC report on the Deltares project. “We expected that the coast would start to retreat due to sea level rise, but the most surprising thing is that the coasts are growing all over the world,” said Dr. Fedor Baart. “We were able to create more land than sea level rise was taking,” he added.
Perhaps someone should tell the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). It uses a notorious climate model ‘pathway’ to suggest a global temperatures rise of 4°C will lead to a possible one metre higher global sea level by the end of the century. Due to land movements, sea level rise can be difficult to measure and tidal gauges are probably the best indication we have. These show a current rise around 2mm per year (20cm per century), not the 13mm proposed by the IPCC.
Of course, the IPCC’s ‘worst case’ basis is in regular use. None seem more creative than the World Economic Forum. It recently referred to a study that predicted a “total collapse” of the Greenland ice sheet by next year. With the ice sheet at a “tipping point of irreversible melting”, scientists are said to “currently expect an unavoidable sea level rise of one to two metres”. The WEF report was headed ‘Sea level rise: Everything you need to know’, suggesting that at least someone in that benighted organisation has a sense of humour.
As expected, the fast-sinking Guardian is well to the fore when it comes to hysteria and climate alarm. In 2020 it reported on a survey of “more than 100 specialists” that estimated a possible global sea level of 1.3 metres within 80 years. One of the co-authors of the report was the Potsdam Institute’s Stefan Rahmstorf, a man sometimes described as the alarmists’ alarmist. Among the cities that may have to be abandoned, claimed Rahmstorf, were Miami, New York, Alexandria, Venice and Bangkok.
Any advance on 1.3 metres? Not hard to find when you have Matt McGrath and the BBC on the job. In 2019 he gave us his two metre scare noting that “scientists believe that global sea levels could rise far more than predicted”. Dignifying the IPCC computer modelled twaddle as “the long held view”, he stated that “expert opinions” suggest a two metre rise, and this could lead to the displacement of hundreds of millions of people.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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