In a piece published last October, the left-wing journalist Aaron Bastani argued that conservatives who oppose mass immigration into Europe should also oppose Western military interventions in the Middle East. After all, Bastani reasoned, such military interventions lead to the displacement of millions of people – some of whom end up coming to Europe.
The typical conservative response to this argument is to point out that the vast majority of people coming to Europe are not in fact genuine refugees, but rather economic migrants. Indeed, many are from countries like Turkey, Morocco and Algeria where there have not been any Western military interventions in recent decades.
However, the debate has proceeded without much recourse to actual data. In this article, I attempt to redress that. Specifically, I investigate whether Western military interventions in the Middle East have contributed to mass immigration into Europe.
To do so, I analysed the UN’s International Migrant Stock database. This database gives, for each country in the world (and for several different time points), an estimate of the number of people from that country who are living in every other country around the world. One weakness is that it does not count second generation immigrants. However, this isn’t too much of an issue in the present context, since we are interested in recent immigration.
Using the database, I calculated for each of 26 Muslim countries, the number of people from that country living in the EU, Britain, Norway or Switzerland. The 26 Muslim countries are all located in the MENA region, which controls (to some extent) for one major factor affecting migration, namely distance. I did not include Muslim countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia or Indonesia in the analysis, since they are so much further away from Europe. In any case, the 26 countries are: Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE and Yemen.
I first calculated the migrant stock from each country for the year 2019 (the latest available). However, simply comparing migrant stocks as of 2019 isn’t a good way to test whether military interventions have contributed to mass immigration. After all, migration flows are subject to a large degree of path dependency. Once a migrant community from a particular country becomes established somewhere, more migrants from that country tend to follow. Hence we need to control for the size of the migrant stock before the interventions took place. I therefore calculated the migrant stock from each country in two earlier years: 1990, which marks the end of the Cold War, and 2000, which marks the beginning of the ‘War on Terror’. (Note that UN figures are available for 2000 but not 2001.)
However, simply looking at change in the migrant stock isn’t a good way to answer the question either. After all, some of the Muslim countries are much larger than others: Pakistan has 241 million people, whereas Brunei has only 0.5 million. Hence we also need to control for population size. I therefore divided the migrant stock from each country in each year by that country’s total population in the relevant year.
Next I identified eight countries where there have been major Western or Western-backed military interventions since 1990: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Somalia, Syria and Yemen. Afghanistan had the War in Afghanistan, which began in 2001. Iraq had the Gulf War in 1991 and then the Iraq War in 2003. Lebanon had the 2006 war with Israel. Libya had the NATO intervention in 2011. Palestine has the ongoing conflict with Israel. Somalia had the US intervention in 1992–95 (which was the basis for the film Black Hawk Down). Syria had the US support for rebels that began in 2011. Yemen had the US intervention that began in 2002.
Now let’s look at some results. The chart below shows the relationship between the log of population-adjusted migrant stock in 2019 and the same variable in 1990. (Both variables were logged to reduce skewness.) The countries with Western military interventions are shown in red.
There is a strong positive relationship, indicating that between-country differences in the population-adjusted migrant stock are largely stable over time. Yet what’s also true is that most of the red countries are above the line, while most of the blue countries are below the line. This indicates that countries with Western military interventions have seen larger increases in population-adjusted migrant stocks than those without interventions. (The difference is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.006.) Indeed, when we rank the 26 countries by the residual (the vertical distance between the point and the line), six of the top seven are countries with Western military interventions.
The chart below shows the same relationship when using 2000 as the baseline instead of 1990. It looks much the same as the first chart: the red countries are concentrated at or above the line, while the blue countries are concentrated below the line. Again, the difference is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.003. When we rank countries by the residual, all five of the top five are countries with Western military interventions.
(A simpler way to analyse the data is to subtract the population-adjusted migrant stock in the baseline year from the equivalent value in 2019, and then compare the two groups of countries. This method yielded similar results.)
Overall, these results support Bastani’s claim that Western military interventions in Muslim countries contribute to mass immigration. However, there are some important caveats. First, there are often many ways to analyse the data. I chose to analyse a limited sample of similar countries and did not control for factors aside from those mentioned. An alternative analysis might yield different results.
Second, in several cases it is plausible that there would still have been large-scale immigration from the relevant country in the absence of Western military intervention. For example, the civil war in Somalia during the 1990s might have produced just as many displaced people if the US had not intervened at all. Part of the difference between the two groups may be due to conflict in general, rather than Western military intervention specifically.
On the other hand, only counting migrants from MENA countries understates the impact of Western military interventions on mass immigration. In particular, the NATO bombing campaign in Libya played a major role in the defeat and eventual death of leader Muammar Gaddafi. This, in turn, led to a substantial rise in the number of Sub-Saharan migrants attempting to reach Europe through Libya. (Gaddafi had previously kept a lid on such migration in exchange for money.)
Third, even if Western military interventions do contribute to mass immigration, it remains true that most MENA migrants come from countries where there have not been such interventions in recent decades. As of 2019, only 22% of the MENA migrant stock in Europe is accounted for by migrants from countries with interventions; the three biggest groups are Algerians, Turks and Moroccans.
Given the limitations of my analysis, this article should not be taken as the final word on the subject. Nonetheless, the results are interesting.
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Yep I was having difficulty believing these figures until I worked out the lads don’t even realise they are doing it because it’s institutional rapism.
Am I reading this wrong, is this parody?
Yes.
Or at least I hope so!
I was wondering that, it went straight over my head.
Am I reading your comment wrong, is this Poe’s Law?
My efforts to understand the first paragraph ended in a serious case of brain entanglement. I had a cup of tea and then went for a walk. Much better now.
“My efforts to understand” … this article have failed miserably.
‘Before things get ugly.’ The article has the sole redeeming feature of reminding me of Paul Newman’s eponymous ‘Harper’ in the 1966 film. The Sheriff (bad guy) says to our hero: “I could get ugly about this.” To which Newman replies: “You ARE ugly.”
It’s far too early to spark one up Ian.
“To understand the sheer scale of the violence against women on U.S. college campuses, we have only to refer to the Association of American Universities’ 2020 report, which points out that 18% of women taking a four-year undergraduate course will have been raped at least once by the end of it. This isn’t just unwanted touching or groping, but rape. And this figure is closely replicated in another study by RTI International”
I recall a report about a “U.S.” city where after guns were legalised, various crimes, including violations of women, decreased. Whether protecting women and children is a priority for the Democrat party in that country is another matter (and I think also of the massacre that was prevented by a passer by armed with a gun who stopped the assailant).
I might also add, I seem to recall a piece in a newspaper some years ago (possibly the Guardian?) which claimed that the hard left have a bit of a blind spot about violations of women.
And Jews.
Wow, this is certainly positive news;
”Switzerland stops the Covid vaccinations: all vaccination recommendations have been withdrawn, doctors can only administer the controversial vaccines in individual cases under certain conditions – but then bear the risk of liability for vaccination damage.Whilst it is unfortunate that they cite high prevalence of natural immunity and low levels of virus circulation as primary motivation, rather than the complete ineffectiveness and damage caused by the “vaccine”, it still represents the most courageous act by a public health authority.
Nevertheless, they do still mention those last two facts. It’s progress. Pushing liability onto the doctors is very welcome. Maybe, they’ll put a bit more thought into the part they are playing in the democide.”
https://metatron.substack.com/p/switzerland-withdraws-all-covid-vaccination
“Pushing liability onto the doctors is very welcome”
For those Drs and others in the medical industry in the UK who bother to do some research or engage in periods of CPD (continuous professional development) this development must surely be a wake up call – he wrote optimistically – or perhaps even a ruddy thunderbolt.
Welcome news nevertheless because it puts medics everywhere on notice.
“Not me guv” just won’t wash anymore and neither will “acting under orders your Honour.”
“Acting under orders” never worked. Remember Nuremburg Medical Trials…?
Good news Mogs. Do you think this court action had anything to do with it?
https://www.conservativewoman.co.uk/will-swiss-court-action-over-vaccine-injuries-turn-the-worldwide-tide/
I was thinking it’s possibly something to do with the banker who’s currently suing the Swiss Health Minister regarding his fraudulent claims about the death jabs;
https://theswisstimes.ch/swiss-banker-files-criminal-charges-over-false-covid-vaccine-statements/
I’ve no idea what point this article is trying to make.
Two words:
Ian
Rons
WTF??
ChatGPT hacked poor Mr Rons’ brain.
Looks like the DS nas been hacked.
Too subtle for me, had to look twice at the headline and still don’t get it.
Lawlessness reigns on these campuses, inside and outside the classrooms.
Yeah, I’m taking the fucking piss. Weird how many people affecting English didn’t get it.
We all got it, Ian. Anyone not appearing to get it was only taking the fucking piss.
Well don’t get upset old chap, old bean, old man.
Weird that you say “we all” though.
I’m only taking the fucking piss, Ian.
Spoken like a true… erm… Englishman.
If you have to explain the joke…
The West will have to arm trans activists in order to win.
Your tenks are stronk. Russian tenks. Stronk.
Oh, do shut up.
Weird how a p1sh article like this was allowed to be published in the first place.
Are we not supposed to be Sceptics, to see through the blarney and bullshit? Well, this article is good training. We should take nothing at face value and THINK!
Trolling the Daily Skeptic again.
Might have been funny a week ago.
What a weird article! I sincerely hope it’s parody! I don’t like IR bringing in the Russia/Ukraine conflict which has absolutely nothing to do with the problems real women are having in sport (and everywhere?). If all the DS articles become like this, I will unsubscribe!
@Ian Rons – are those stats you quote correct about 18% of female undergraduates being raped – that seems quite high?
I lived in the district of Dunwoody, greater Atlanta GA, some 25 years ago. The neighbouring district of Kennesaw had recently prior had a problem with significantly increasing home burglary, so they mandated that every household must keep a loaded gun on the property. Burglaries fell to near zero. It’s how America works.
Now if you take guns away mayhem will ensue.
I presume this meant to be satire, but it misses any humour, so doesn’t work.