Welcome to the Weekly Sceptic episode 83 (recorded live at the Hippodrome).
This week:
- Will Wragg is praised for being “brave” by Jeremy Hunt after sending intimate photos to a spear phisher and then, when blackmailed, handing over fellow MPs’ phone numbers
- The Tories issue a poster with the dubious claim that the U.K. is the second most powerful country in the world and prove this by including photos of an American jet and a Swiss ship
- Angela Rayner is caught telling porkies to avoid capital gains tax and David Lammy’s attempts to defend her make things exponentially worse
- Toby is described in the Telegraph as a “Right-wing hate figure” in a surprisingly positive article
- Plus everyone’s favourite section, Peak Woke, and premium content which this week includes:
- The Rock announces he won’t be endorsing either Presidential candidate because he’s too famous and doesn’t want to influence the result
- No Labels folds its tent, thereby giving Biden a much-needed boost
- And in the Based Department, Nick nominates Angela Rayner’s cushion for proving she was lying about the house she sold being her primary residence.
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Filmed at the Westminster Podcast Studio.
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“The health secretary said the “vast majority” of people in the town who are in hospital with the new variant had not taken up the offer of a vaccine.”
“He said five people who had received a single jab were in hospital with the Indian variant in Bolton.”
There are currently 18 people in hospital with all variants of covid in Bolton
https://coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhstrust&areaName=Bolton%20NHS%20Foundation%20Trust
Out of these, 5 people have the new variant and are vaccinated
That leaves 13 who may or may not be vaccinated and have any variant of covid
ie 30% of people in hospital in Bolton with covid have a specific strain and a vaccination
hard to tell if this is good or bad until we know other details (how prevalent are the different strains, ages and vaccination rates etc)
It doesn’t look great but then it isn’t evidence of ADE (yet).
I guess we’re also left to speculate as to why they’ve been admitted to hospital. It’s natural to assume that they’ll all have been exhibiting severe and characteristic Covid-19 symptoms, but it’s also possible that they’ve been admiitted for other reasons and then tested positive on arrival?
Road accidents? Broken limbs? Appendicitis? Cancer? Strokes/heart problems? And all those poor souls were subjected to having something stuck up their nose in their pain and distress. I doubt ONE of them was admitted with ”covid” – unless possibly over the age of 80 and knocking on Heaven’s door.
Utterly disgusting manipulation.
Athletes foot becomes Covid toe
The last date reported for the number in hospital is May 11th. Can we assume Hancock is not using updated figures.
you fool. the relative risk reduction is independent of the precise date.1/18 = 94.4% relative risk reduction on May 11. It still stands whatever the date.
I wasn’t referring to the relative risk rate. I was trying to determine what numbers Hancock was using.
What the f. is this chuntering about irrelevant Scary Fairy garbage from Hadoncock re, this modest disease doing in this forum?
Perhaps it’s more relevant to ask why the terrible ‘Indian variant’ is having so little impact in India.
P.S. Is this site turning into a knee-knockers vaccine forum?
As one recent intelligent article, putting things in perspective, says :
“So, go about your life unvaccinated and you face bugger all chance of getting Covid. Go about your life vaccinated and your prospects of avoiding the dreaded Covid lurgi improve by less than 1% of bugger all.”
…. Whether you’re in Bolton or Schmolton.
Aren’t more people dying from the vaccine than from covid?
The dates are key to the likelihood of which variant caused the disease.
To put it bluntly, Mayo – who gives a shit?
All this variant babble is simply mending the Scary Fairy’s wings. Mutation is what all organisms do. Very rarely it’s significant. None of this is.
Imagine what would have happened in the wider life of the biosphere if quotidian mutations had the daily impact claimed by crap scientists for this virus!
If it is infecting the vaccinated in significant numbers it could have implications.
So does that ~1% absolute risk reduction, oh gullible one.
Oh dear, the genius who calls me a fool, doesn’t know how to calculate relative risk.
>Out of these, 5 people have the new variant and are vaccinated
that’s a lie.Listen to what he really said. He really said without reference to variant “there are 18 people in bolton in hospital with covid19 five of them having had one jab, and one person who was frail had had two jabs.” he also said the vast majority,( i.e. 13 had had no jabs.) 13 out of 18 is the vast majority, just about.
Meaning if you have no jabs your risk is highest, if you have 1 jab, you cut it to ~ 0.3 of what it would have been and if you have both jab, you cut the risk by a factor of ~18 or 20, which is in approx line with trial results (94% reduction in risk.)
> hard to tell if this is good or bad
It’s good. let me make it easy for you a 94% relative risk reduction is very good, esp. when the one out of 18 is already frail.
You also have to consider the rate of vaccination in the population of Bolton. Your calculation assumes that there’s about equal numbers of vaccinated vs unvaccinated.
As far as I can tell Bolton has about 1/4 of the population with at least a single vaccination. If the hospitalisations and vaccinations were randomly distributed across the population you’d expect about 4.5 hospitalisations in the vaccine group if the vaccine was completely ineffective against this variant.
But that’s also a misleading calculation — you really need to know the distribution by age and morbidity of the vaccine groups and those in the hospital. As neither of those crucial aspects of the data are available you can tell very little about the impact on the vaccinated vs unvaccinated from the data given. Well, you might be able to infer that there’s likely to be at least some vaccine escape with the India variant, but that’s it.
Was going to the same thing. In their desire to criticise someone for picking numbers, they’ve done just that. If only 1/3 of the town has had the vaccine and 1/3 of the hospital patients are vaccinated, then, well, it’s obvious (for most of us)
Exactly. That is the basis of all those statistical lies currently, the recent CDC and PHE studies first and foremost.
You’re jumping to a lot of conclusions based on a statement by someone who struggled with the concept of the False Positive rate. .
1/ Were all of the 13 admitted because of Covid or something else and just happened to test positive. This is quite common.
2/ Have vaccinated people been admitted to hospital BECAUSE of the vaccination. If so – how many? I know, for a fact, that this happens quite regularly.
It’s not a lot of good preventing hospitalisations due to Covid if they’re being admitted for anaphylactic shock or clots due to the vaccine.
This is absolute cobblers, fon, and would explain why you keep misinterpreting information time and again. Unless and until the age and medical background of the patients in question are known, then NO meaningful conclusion is possible at all. I could go on, but what’s the point?
Correct – you don’t even know that they have ‘Covid’.
FFS – since when did statements from Handoncock start being taken seriously here?
Fuck Off Now…
….fon.
> it isn’t evidence of ADE (yet).
And it is not evidence that dinosaurs still live in a cave near Ben Nevis.
“hard to tell if this is good or bad”
No it’s not. It’s easy to tell it’s a ‘nothing’.
Hardly reason to continue with the shite.
The salient word there is ”with”.
Twenty million lab rats.
Which you have to admit is a pretty decent sample size from which to make scientific conclusions.
If they were keeping track, them separate, had a control group etc..
I am mainly referring to the medium and long term side effects here.
As with destroying the original trial control groups by opening them up, I suspect the same is being done and not done deliberately with regard to those long term effects, to cloud the real numbers of people getting seriously ill or dying of cancer and vascular problems but due to the gene therapies in the future.
Are people who’ve been jabbed being phoned a week and a month after the jabbing to check on side effects?
No.
Are the jabbed made aware by the jabbers that there’s a system for reporting side effects?
In my experience of asking people,no.
When they’re told about the system, do they report the side effects?
Again, in my experience, no. My ex, who “lost three days” (her words) after her AZ jab thought it would be “ungrateful” to report that serious damage to her health.
Which is why the BBC televises a daily briefing saying how many people died within 28 days of getting a jab.
Hospital findings in Bolton yield a 1 in 18 relative risk reduction after two jabs, which equates to 94.4% relative risk reduction, in line with trial results, this variant does not get past the vaccine. Or a 67% relative risk reduction after one jab. If this holds elsewhere, and we can get everybody vaccinated, we’re through this.
It seems to me utterly foolish to draw conclusions based on these very small numbers.
It would not be tolerated in any other scientific discourse
… or as gospel from what is essential a PR campaign by financially interested par ties aimed at unloading pretty useless snake oil
6 vaccinated hospitalised vs 12 unvaccinated ones there do not equal your entirely made up numbers.
As for the absolute risk and its reduction, it’s just pathetic, as always.
This is absolute cobblers, fon, and would explain why you keep misinterpreting information time and again. Unless and until the age and medical background of the patients in question are known, then NO meaningful conclusion is possible at all. I could go on, but what’s the point?
You also need to know how many are in the vaccinated and unvaccinated population. To use an extreme example, if only 10 people had been vaccinated the relative risk would be higher in the vaccinated group.
Exactly, and so much more besides to draw any vaguely valid cross comparisons let alone statistical conclusions. But short of bashing one’s head on a brick wall how else can one deal with a fon type expert who can somehow come up with 94.4% – and genuinely believe it? Or is he the best court jester ever, and the joke’s on us?
No it doesn’t.
My freedom isn’t conditional on “getting everybody vaccinated” – I was born free on earth.
One only has to look at open states and countries to see that this disease dosn’t need vaccination of everyone to be controlled. It’s simply not going to cause death on the level that this sort of coercion is rational.
https://consumer.healthday.com/b-4-29-poll-reveals-whos-most-vaccine-hesitant-in-america-and-why-2652810397.html
At least those people with really essential real jobs might survive this, due to their common sense scepticism and apparent immunity to propaganda and BS, which is obviously also the basis of their survival when performing their jobs.
The U.K. … vaccinating more than 20 million people, yet … the Indian variant dominate(s) the Government’s – and the media’s – Covid narrative’
Can the editors of this website honestly not see the connection here? Of course it dominates the narrative it is that narrative that has delivered the 20 million vaccinations and 36 single doses. The result of that is to justify the introduction of vax passports thus debarring those unvaccinated from partaking in society. You cannot support vaccination and then argue against vax passports – not in the context of covid. But supporting you are by default supporting the other. If covid is sufficient dangerous to warrant this vaccination program then by definition what comes after is equally warranted. Once you accept that (vax program) you accept what comes after.
Its simply disingenuous not to acknowledge what is going on with the vaccination program. Lockdown is over that ship has sailed and all those who arguing against it lost. The covid reality has moved on but the failure of the editors of this website to acknowledge that has simply driven the supporters of LS in to a cul-de-sac.
Now we have nowhere to go because its vaccination or apartheid. We can only guess at what that will mean in the long term for those of us who remain unvaccinated. At the moment nothing is said against the vaccination program here so it quietly rolls on.
Do we think while we argue over whether the moon is made of cheese the govt are quietly doing nothing? Of course not. Very soon we will wake up in a country in which we effectively will no longer belong and all those cheering vaccination will have quietly helped us in to the cattle trucks as a result.
“Lockdown is over that ship has sailed ” At the grassroots style Back to Normal campaign, we have acknowledged this and have switched our campaign to backing Ivermectin. We are a deliberately “analogue” campaign in a digital world having distributed over 600,000 anti-lockdown postcards via an army of 600 or so volunteers. The cards go through letterboxes but increasingly, they are handed out at Stand in the Park events or marches.
If you’d like to help deliver the cards please contact us at backtonormalrh@yahoo.com
”Fully vaccinated”, eh? Well, considering we’re told by the NHS and the government that these ”vaccines” don’t stop you catching ”it” or passing ”it” on – it doesn’t really make a whole lot of difference to anything or anyone, does it?
The classic legal term: “selective with the truth” is applicable to many people on here and elsewhere! (I know you’re correct, by the way, according to the paperwork I’ve had from the NHS).
Let’s have a contest to rewrite the headline here: More Than 20 million People in the UK…..
20 million frightened, hypochondriac and/or cowardly sheep.. many with better cars and houses than you. Now you know.. they were never smarter or better than you.
Wonder how the NHS will cope if the suspected vaccinated immune system response to a ‘wild virus’ causing ‘cytokine storm’, actually happens? The ‘plandemic’ will pale in comparison.
Wancock can jog on! I won’t be rolling up my sleeve to take an experimental “vaccine” to “protect” me ( and others, apparently) from a virus which almost certainly won’t cause me , not the vast majority of the population, any serious harm. Psy-ops are working overtime in the fear and guilt factors. Well SAGE and Wancock can factor right off!
I would be interested to see figures of how many people are having severe side effects, including death, from the various vaccines. But these are not presented like the “death WITH Covid-19” figures. If they did present these figures, and they were acceptable, more people might be induced to have the vaccine. On the other had as we still have no idea whether there are any long term effects maybe not.
Go to the UKColumn website. Here they re-present the govt’s own figures for death and side effects in an accessible way…
“Hancock…hinting that the “roadmap” could be extended if “enough” people don’t take the vaccine.”
Yeah right, jog on Hancock. Enough of your lies and manipulation.
Power to the “enough” people who see what he, Boris, SAGE and co are doing.
Actually this is One o’clock trying to bring in mandatory vaccines by the back door. It is our fault if restrictions are not lifted.
And look at the numbers quoted, not 18,000, not 1800 nor even 180, just eighteen (18).
For crying out loud. For an illness that is not even fatal for 99.85% of the population.
I despair at the stupidity and gullibility of this country.
It’s Genocide folks.
WAKE UP.
One of my German podcasts yesterday highlighted an interesting statistic.
Study in The Lancet from mid April, in the group of 18-45y old, 2 deaths from covid equal 1 deaths from the vaccine and 3 with severe thrombotic events.
More deaths from the vaccine than from covid the younger you are.
The younger you are, the more likely you’re being conned.