The ONS published its latest report on deaths by vaccination status on August 25th 2023. It covers the period from April 1st 2021 to May 1st 2023. I thought you might be interested in the relative all-cause death rate of the unvaccinated and the vaccinated.
The report also covers Covid deaths. However, I’m somewhat sceptical of ‘Covid’ deaths as many Covid deaths were deaths ‘with’ Covid not ‘of’ Covid, so for this analysis I’m only showing the all-cause deaths.
Let’s start with all-cause deaths of all people in England over 18 years of age by month from April 2021 to the end of May 2023, as shown in Figure 1.
There are three obvious points to make. Firstly, there’s a worrying upward trend, which is a bit odd in the years following a supposed deadly pandemic. Secondly, that during 2022 only in September and November were deaths lower than in the corresponding month of 2021. Finally, in April 2023 all-cause deaths were higher than in April 2021. Remember, in April 2021 we still had a largely unvaccinated population doing battle with a ‘raging deadly pathogen’. Why would all-cause deaths be higher this year?
Let’s also just look at the overall situation with regards to vaccination. Bearing in mind that as no one knows how many people live in the U.K., the absolute accuracy of the percentage of the population vaccinated will be an approximation. Our World in Data estimated the level to be about 80% back in September 2022; it hasn’t changed a lot since then. When the ONS data series started in April 2021, the ONS estimates about 46% had had at least one dose. These would nearly all have been elderly and vulnerable people,
What we’re really interested in is whether the unvaccinated look to have died in their droves. Figure 3 answers this question for all ages. And, of course, the answer is a resounding ‘No’. Whilst on these figures the unvaccinated made up 14% of all-cause deaths back in April 2021, when vaccination rates were relatively low, by May 2023 it had come down to just 4%.
Of course, we all know that older age groups tend to have higher vaccination rates than younger ones. So, let’s look at the percentage of unvaccinated among the older age groups.
Figure 4 shows us the percentage of all-cause deaths among the 90+ age cohort, amongst whom, since May 2021, the unvaccinated have never made up more than 5% of deaths, dropping to 2% in September of 2022.
The picture is much the same among the 80-89 year-olds. Since May 2021, deaths of the unvaccinated have never been above 5%, levelling off at 3% since April 2022.
I’ll finish off with the 70-79 cohort. There too you’ll look in vain for a ‘pandemic of the unvaccinated’. By February of 2022 the unvaccinated made up just 5% of all-cause deaths.
I could go on, but you get my point. Vaccination status is not a particular determinant as to the outcome of a bout of Covid and it never was. Furthermore, the first real test of the effectiveness of the vaccines was the Delta wave from July 2021. Yet no spike in the proportion of unvaccinated dying can be seen in any of the charts above.
If you do get tempted to visit the ONS report, do remember to be very sceptical of the ‘age-standardised’ data. We’re back with the issue so eloquently examined by Norman Fenton, Martin Neil, David Spiegelhalter, Tim Harford et al. at various times.
For a quick layman’s summary, the issue revolves around not knowing how many people are in any one age group or indeed, how big the population is overall.
Imagine you have an age cohort of 10 million people, but in fact there are 11 million. The NHS knows it’s injected 9,750,000 people in that age cohort. Consequently, assuming there are 10 million in the cohort they say they’ve vaccinated all but 2.5% of them. But, if it turns out there are actually 11 million in the group then there’s 11.4% of the population unvaccinated, nearly 5 times as many.
Now, imagine that 2,500 unvaccinated people are recorded as Covid deaths. If we thought there were 10 million in the cohort and 250,000 hadn’t been vaccinated it would be assumed that 1% of all the unvaccinated had died. However, if there were really 11 million in the cohort then 2,500 deaths would represent just 0.2% of the 1,250,000 unvaccinated population.
For good measure, Figure 7 covers the four other age-cohorts covered by the ONS data. No shocks here either – and no Delta spikes.
The data in the charts above are the raw data, not age-adjusted or weighted, and they tell me that just 4% of all deaths in May 2023 were of unvaccinated people. Do I think the unvaccinated are at any more risk than the vaccinated? No. But I’m not so sure the other way round.
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Bingo!
climate scam – covid scam – racist scam – thins Non Conservative traitor signs us up for it
Boris Weighs In On Climate Boris Johnson shows off his high intellect and hairstyle once again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=623qKL4P9KE
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
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And all these tales stand over a test that does not mean a thing. Drosten is an employee of the German state, besides being stupid.
From the penultimate sentence: ‘If they do, from what we now know we should probably place more trust in our immune system than we have in previous waves.’
Gosh, do you think? Trust in our immune system? Probably?
Trusting in our immune system these days is considered tantamount to heresy. It means you are against ‘The Science’. Worse, horror of horrors, it means you must be anti-vaxx!
The one thing missing from all these brilliant brainy analyses is that we have a perfectly good immune system, which should be our first line of defence. Then we have cheap effective safe treatments available, HCQ, Ivermectin, etc.
All the NPIs were brainless interventions of no value, which was obvious right out of the gate.
Especially since the main “evidence” against HCQ has now been withdrawn by The Lancet
Please, please can you sign this letter in support of Dr Peter McCullough, he first published the MATH protocol for treatment of covid with IVM, hydroxychloroquine etc. He also reads this site! He is being prosecuted for promoting these treatments.
https://faculty.utrgv.edu/eleftherios.gkioulekas/pmc-support-letter/
Scandulous! Signed. If he gets hounded into silence, its over.
Signed
Logical, rational, evidence based. Bound to be shut down sooner rather than later.
Outstanding article. No doubt Lord Snooty will be along in a minute to accuse him of being a rabid anti vaxxer………..
Completely by accident I found something odd about this character and this site. If you click on his mname his ‘profile’ appears which amongst other things ranks his approval rating etc; its 4 stars. So I checked my own and after that some of the other regulars, no-one else I could find ranks above zero. Now it may be nothing, a glitch of the system, but as far as I could tell its not something you can alter personally. Odd?
I dislike all my fans.
More than 75% of UK adults now double-jabbed
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-58162318
Fantastic, may it end well for them. I’ll watch from the side lines.
Ditto. About to tune up my immune system with quality sausages and broccoli, a couple of thickly buttered oatcakes plus red wine and some 85% chocolate.
I checked, the guy in the garage who “caught covid from his daughter” was double vaxxed. That went well . . .
yawn
That’s right, Covid “vaccine” coercion rates are increasing.
Immune system hesitancy has got a lot to answer for.
I already thought of that with my bare wit, professor. So did most people on this site no doubt.
Yes my thoughts and Ivor Cummins et al talked in same vein about 1.2 years ago – it’s predictable but not using computer generated genomic sequencing – that’s called massive business for massive corporate interests. This is technology on steroids and why we’re in this nightmare scenario (I mean the mass hypnosis of the 75% etc.)
Also the vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 assume a universally equal response by the immune system, whereas, although 99% of our genes are the same, most of the remaining 1% that are different are concerned with our immune system, which can and do vary across ethnic groups. For example Caucasians do not have the gene that produces sickle cell disease, but it is in people of Afro-Caribbean descent. Even within that group there are subgroups who do not have that genetic makeup. Sickle cell disease is actually a response to the presence of malaria.
climate scam – covid scam – racist scam – this Non Conservative traitor signs us up for it
Boris Weighs In On Climate Boris Johnson shows off his high intellect and hairstyle once again.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=623qKL4P9KE
Stand in South Hill Park Bracknell every Sunday from 10am meet fellow anti lockdown freedom lovers, keep yourself sane, make new friends and have a laugh.
Join our Stand in the Park – Bracknell – Telegram Group
http://t.me/astandintheparkbracknell
Is it really the vaccines that are preventing deaths? Could it just be a seasonal effect? Deaths are presently picking up, possibly more so than at this time last year….
Doubt it with more deaths recorded this summer than last. Although they might just have got better at rigging the numbers I guess.
So like all other respiratory viruses then?
Excellent article. Thank you.
A good article. My only query is whether variation is that significant on this timescle.
Read in conjunction with
https://brownstone.org/articles/a-closer-look-at-germanys-covid-mortality/
… it provides excellent rational analysis.
A bit late, but yeah.
Still think the obsession with cases is not helpful.
Try and find waves in death and hospitalisations, try and peel out the fake positives and those get a positive test in the hospital rather then for other reasons.
There was no pandemic.
There has been no pandemic, not even an epidemic. There has been a Casedemic.
None of this has ANYTHING whatsoever to do with a cold / ‘flu infection currently labelled Covid 19.
What is happening is a depopulation agenda and the imposition literally of a NWO.
We have proven our case re C1984 over and over – that debate should be dropped – the problem now is what we do next.
The first sentence was sound. Then, you fell into the depopulation nonsense honey-trap.
Huxley, I am more than willing to entertain the ideas you espouse, but I have one question I can’t quite find an answer to; if the agenda was depopulation, why would the conspirators not just release an actual bioweapon disguised as a virus with a higher IFR? Seems to me like going round the houses a bit, trying to dress up a garden variety flu as a deadly pandemic in order to force these jabs on the population, which I presume to be where the depopulating occurs. Why not just cut out the middle man, given that the virus narrative has more holes than a colander.
Because with the jabs you have much better control over who is killed.
Simply put, and right on the button.
Its a selective genocide. Kill off the weak, the old and non productive, supernumerary part of the populous. Keep the fit, healthy and productive in digitally controlled slavery. Just switch em off as required.
Simple. Heinrich Himmler would be so impressed.
Why not just cut out the middle man, given that the virus narrative has more holes than a colander.
It’s the middle man who makes the most money!
Because such a bioweapon would pose a risk to the elite. Far, far easier to get people to voluntarily submit.
Why do you think they want EVERYONE in the world to have these experimental jabs?
In the 4th bullet point, the second use of ‘Immunity’ is incorrect, as the sentence actually says, the ‘vaccines’ don’t provide immunity, they may provide some symptom refief and possible reduce deaths. Although the spike of deaths after their use with aged, infirm patients means this need qualification.
That’s the same. As an active agent, a vaccine is supposed to be free of noticable effects. The only effect it’s supposed to have is to prime the immune system to enable it to fight the actual pathogen quicker/ more effectively.
That’s why the idea that a vaccine could prevent detectable infection is ludicrous which unfortunately implies that it’s not what the COVID paranoics were hoping it to be, namely, some kind of scientific super hand sanitizier killing the remaining 0.1% (or 0.01%) of All Dangerous Germs[tm].
These idiots will be out of the bottle and continue to sow mindless destruction of anything belonging to somebody else on their path while they “fight” against their own, irrational fears until someone puts them back in.
A good write up/read, however no mention of the potential for the jabs to drive new varients? Seems pretty plausible, and if true would surely derail some of the author’s conclusions and predictions?
As the author points out: If this would happen, it would have happened seriously long time ago already. The jab is supposed to generate an immune response. As that’s exactly what happens through infection as well, the virus finds itself in the exact same situation with and without it.
I’m still uncertain if the vaxxers and antivaxxers and the lockdown fans are really distinct groups of people as all they’re all spreading the same message employing the same appeal to fear: We’re all going to die of COVID unless we’re all vaccinated! And because this doesn’t help, we also need eternal lockdowns (and Chinese one-way facemasks, obviously, the moneymaker fashion accessoire of 2020)!
90% Of Patients Treated With Experimental Israeli COVID Drug Discharged Within 5 Days
https://www.zerohedge.com/covid-19/90-patients-treated-experimental-israeli-covid-drug-discharged-within-5-days
How can we be sure that variants exist, or even the virus itself if they have never been successfully isolated?
Exactly. There is no test for a variant, as far as I can find out.
Just going through the abstract, it seems to be a wise summary in support of our position. The real risks now are the underlying problems of bureaucratic opportunism, political syllogism, and other nefarious activities.
A bit more detail:
Re this paragraph:
“ That leaves just one final type of jigsaw piece – population immunity. Building on pre-existing cross-immunity to other coronaviruses, immunity due to SARS-CoV-2 infection is superior to immunity generated by vaccination in that it defends against a broader range of variants and engenders good protection against infection, illness and infectiousness. By contrast, vaccines do little to stop a vaccinated individual from becoming infected or being infectious (see here and here) and whatever small benefit they may provide in terms of reducing transmissibility will merely delay the occurrence of infections, as explained above for NPIs. Vaccines are, thankfully, very good at reducing serious illness, hospitalisation and death, and so on that basis they are only well merited for use in old and vulnerable individuals. It is critical that the very significant limitations of vaccines regarding infection and transmission control are now widely advertised and understood, as this makes the idea of vaccine ID cards completely nonsensical in scientific terms – as well as highly discriminatory and illiberal. Vaccine safety profiles are an additional consideration. ”
In that one, it says nothing about the negative risk of them – so-called ‘adverse effects’. It’s wise in as much as it only recommends it’s use for the old and vulnerable, but more about the balance of risks for anyone would be worth mentioning here.
It’s a great piece but our so called experts/scientists will just say, oh no hes not correct in his assertions we are correct in ours. End of discussion and end of his career.
It’s what happens when the World powers set up a plan to combat a very dangerous viral attack which could threaten the entire world population.
Sadly, the searing intellects who created the plan, failed to realise that Sars-Cov-2 wasn’t the dangerous virus they were expecting.
Agree with many here.An outstanding article.Should be shared and spread.
Next contestant, Prof. Expert Numpty from the University of Dunces. Specialist subject – the bleeding obvious. (Apologies to Basil Fawlty). FIGHT. BACK. BETTER. Regularly updated new website with useful links and information: https://www.LCAHub.org/
From SNCF (French railways) own site:
https://www.sncf.com/en/passenger-offer/travel-by-train/covid19-rail-traffic-what-you-need-to-know
We know they [NPIs] did something because the incidence of all other respiratory viruses has reduced dramatically over the course of the pandemic wherever such measures were applied (even in Australia, where Covid is all but absent). Most respiratory viruses have Ro values of less than two, and so suppression measures need only be mildly potent to push these Rt values below one. In contrast, SARS-CoV-2 has a far greater Ro (typically estimated as three-to-four, or even more) and so those same suppression measures will not so easily push the covid virus Rt below one.
Is this correct?? Possibly, but correlation/causation etc. …
The apparent absence of colds and flu during lockdowns has been notable, and cries out for verification and explanation.
Whilst for many adults lockdowns have not completely or even severely curtailed their interaction with other homo sapiens (life has to go on …), the same cannot be said for many children. Kept home from nursery and school, I’d hazard a guess that many have been effectively isolated from wider society.
Now children play little, if any, role in the spread of SARS-COV-2. Thus, however SARS-COV-2 does spread, locking down children didn’t have much effect. But children clearly do spread colds and flu (don’t I know it), and indeed may well be the major vectors of these viruses. Thus locking down children might explain the lack of colds and flu while at the same time having no effect on the spread of SARS-COV-2.
I’m not saying this is definitely what has happened (correlation/causation etc. …) – just that such a mechanism might explain, or part explain, what we’ve been seeing.
As a final anecdote, my two (3 and 5) were at home during the spring 2020 lockdown (nursery closed) and the TJN household was remarkably free of colds. But they attended nursery/school normally and fully since June 2020, during which we’ve had loads of colds, and noticeably more so since the schools fully opened in March 2021.
Edit PS: of course, it is possible or even likely that many flus have been misdiagnosed as covid, but the absence of colds cannot be similarly explained.
The absence of colds can perfectly well be explained by the fact that grown-up people routinely ignore them and that somebody just claimed they had been absent.
NB: I live alone, don’t really have any friends and always work from home. This means for much of 2020 and 2021-so-far, about the only social contact I had with other people was getting infected with whatever viruses their bodies happened to host.
Antisocial distancing is a method of low-volume torture for people who don’t have circles of private contacts and a club to beat businesses certain people particularly dislike and has no other effect, not the least because everybody who can ignore it does ignore it.
If you read one more thing today, make it Bhakdi’s report on the Pfizer rat studies referenced down below. On the doctors4covidethics.org site
Devastating. “There are many ways in which this molecule could have been modified for faster degradation in vivo. It is therefore noteworthy that this was not done – the vaccine was deliberately formulated with a compound that is degraded and eliminated from the body very slowly…. we must expect cumulative toxicity with repeated vaccinations,”
He also mentions that the rat studies showed toxicity in tissues, inflammation and function damage to nerves and joints.
I have heard and seen this strongly associated with the AZ version, obviously in the more susceptible over 60s.
He also mentions that the rat studies showed toxicity in tissues, inflammation and function damage to nerves and joints.
Exactly what’s going to happen when a vaccine uses an artifical virus supposed to damage body cells in just the same way as the real thing except that the products of this viral reproduction process aren’t capable of reproducing on their own: It’s going to infect cells. And these will end up dying. The theory behind that is presumably that the body has enough of them and they will get replaced soon.
I don’t know which kind of gene-engineering genius came up with this idea and but I’d be interested in knowing if he’s willing to try that on himself.
“His theory is similar to that put forward by Dr Will Jones, namely, that the overall immunity levels in most populations are quite high, but need to be ‘topped up’ each time a new variant appears, causing infections to rise and then fall. Importantly, the decline in infections has little or nothing to do with non-pharmaceutical interventions”
Just like the flu bro, or the common cold.
<Best Churchill Voice>Nevah in the field of human pathology have so many looked at a disease with such intensity with so little real knowledge gained”</Best Churchill Voice>
I’m sorry to come to this so late, but I must congratulate Professor Brookes for writing what I think is the definitive piece on this whole sorry saga. This truly is a brilliant analysis. Thanks again.
As soon as the word variant appears the rest of the article is obviously bull*hit