Duncan Allan, a fellow of Chatham House, has written a report in which he paints a bleak picture of what might happen to Russia if Putin falls from power. The Mail has more.
The year is 2027 and Kyiv’s dreams have come true: Russia has lost the war, its troops have withdrawn from all Ukrainian territory – and Vladimir Putin has fallen from power.
But far from turning Russia into a Western-friendly democracy, the defeat has spawned a bitter, dangerous and unstable state right on Europe’s doorstep – ruled over by yet another nuclear-armed autocrat.
Worse still, the new regime in Moscow is firmly in Beijing’s back pocket.
That is just one sobering scenario put forward by expert Duncan Allan in a new report which warns that – even if Ukraine’s counter-attack smashes Putin’s army – Russia will pose long-term risks that the West must be ready to deal with.
Mr. Allan, an associate fellow at the Chatham House think-tank, said: “Never say never, but I don’t see any serious likelihood of a democratic Russia within the next five years.
“It will retain an essentially authoritarian system. Even if the war ends decisively on Ukraine’s terms I would expect Russia to be a long-term challenge to the U.K. and Europe.
“It is necessary to think about what we may have to deal with in the future. That debate needs to intensify.”
Mr. Allan stresses that the paper is not intended as a prediction of the future, but instead tries to imagine likely outcomes for Russia if the war in Ukraine plays out according to a best-case scenario.
By best-case, Mr. Allan means that Ukraine inflicts heavy losses on Russia in its coming offensive, sparking a palace coup in Moscow which leads to the signing of an armistice by mid-2024.
The war ends with the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory – including Crimea – and in return the West agrees to lift some but not all of its sanctions.
With Putin gone, rule of Russia falls to the cabal of elites who helped remove him.
The question Mr. Allan tries to answer is: What happens next? And that is where the Western pipe-dream comes to an end.
Worth reading in full.
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“Never say never, but I don’t see any serious likelihood of a democratic Russia within the next five years.” Democracy? We used to have that in the UK. Apparently our masters, TPTB, the WEF and their underlings the Westminster Elite think that it is overrated and it is therefore cancelled. I suppose we’ll all have to vote harder.
Absolutely. Couldn’t agree more. Couldn’t despise our own overlords more.
Vote harder? Only if you identify yourself first.
… and more often.
Did we really have democracy, or delusion for a while?
Good to see the downvoters sneak in, downvote and then sneak away again. How stunning and brave of them.
And what about the UK? Boris has been rolled away from power, a fat failure, a weak and pathetic buffoon who, let’s not forget, was such an appalling judge of character as to put the ludicrous, lying Hancock in charge of, well, anything.
And when there was a chance at peace the bumbling idiot, fearing his due judgement, insisted that more men be sacrificed, so that he might rescue his legacy, imagining himself as a latter day Churchill, rather than the shameless, immoral, disloyal liar that he is.
And still he waddles around the globe, begging people to send more weapons into another pointless, grinding war, where white people kill white people over lines on a map, while the warmongers in Washington rub their hands and fill their treasure chests.
Still, Rishi has a nice smile, don’t you think? So it’s not all bad.
Yes he has a nice line in expensive suits for schoolboys that almost fit him…
Rishi can compare swastikas with the Ukrainians but probably avoid talk of what they represent in each culture.
“The war ends with the complete withdrawal of Russian troops from Ukrainian territory- including Crimea-“
…a NATO fantasy?
Indeed. What Uketopian offensive? 500 K dead and injured. The Russians took the areas they set out to take. They are quite happy to meat grind the US 51rst state into meal. And they will. Dunc and many on this site suffer from Fake News Delusion Syndrome. Next I will read that the biolabs and money laundering from the Uketopia to the criminal US political elite don’t exist.
You will see…..
Analysis such as this is worth while but ultimately unreliable. No one forecast the collapse of the USSR and the west was bit alert to the descent into authoritarianism when a form of democracy was possible.
the lesson should be to stand ready to support any democratic movement in an independent Russia, Georgia etc. also we must build up our inadequate stocks of munitions in case the scenario outlined comes to pass.
Democracy? Maybe start in your own country. See Rona fascism for a start.
Because the CIA, NSA, GCHQ, MI5, MI6, Mossad etc. aren’t powerful agencies in comparison? Russian, American, British, Israeli, Turkish, Iranian.. it doesn’t matter when it comes to security services: state funded terrorists and conspiracy theorists.
Hard to see how the existing regime survives without Putin.
However hardliners and regime stalwarts will be reluctant to move against him.
They will probably do everything they can to keep him in power.
This is perhaps the most important factor protecting the regime from collapse.
If Putin is replaced or loses power, it will be because the war in Ukraine goes very badly indeed.
That will create a desperate need for change, not just for a new leader but for a new approach to the war that does not double down on but rather ends it.
But for now, the chances of a palace coup are scarcely greater than those of Putin being toppled by protests in the streets.
However not everyone agrees with that assessment.
‘“We are in such a condition that we could fucking lose Russia – that is the main problem. We need to impose martial law.”
‘“This divide can end as in 1917 with a revolution – first the soldiers will stand up, and after that – their loved ones will rise up.’
“There are already tens of thousands of them – relatives of those killed, and there will probably be hundreds of thousands.”
Prighozin 23 May 2023
Significantly, the Soviet Union collapsed not when Reagan or the West had an iron fist but when they had an outstretched arm.
A window may yet open for a settlement but not until defeat on the battlefield is a reality.
Monro, the Soviet Union collapsed from within. But if there was any exterior influence, it was Solidarnošč… and the Gdansk Shipyard.
That is, indeed, the point.
It astounds me that anyone can seriously believe that a country which effectively won WW2 at a cost of 25 -30 million souls will be defeated on the battlefield.
Russia not unreasonably sees Nato/Ukraine/USA as a threat to its very existence.
It’s going to be a long hard proxy war and will only end when Uncle Sam says so – which will not be for a very long time – unless the Democrats, that peace loving party, lol, gets tanked.
The real tragedy of this totally unnecessary “war” is that hundreds of thousands are being killed purely at the behest of The Great Satan – which hopefully is in its death throes as the world’s policeman.
Anyone who thinks Russia is solely the aggressor ,- I suggest you take a look at the comparative “defence” expenditure of that country as against the Western powers surrounding it. I guarantee you will be in for a shock.
You are entitled to your opinion.
However ‘The Russian Federation’ is not the USSR.
The USSR won battles on the eastern front largely as a consequence of massive supplies of materiel from this country and the U.S., the main suppliers, today, of materiel to Ukraine.
‘”I want to tell you what, from the Russian point of view, the president and the United States have done for victory in this war,”
“The most important things in this war are the machines…. The United States is a country of machines. Without the machines we received through Lend-Lease, we would have lost the war.”
Stalin 1943
‘”If the United States had not helped us, we would not have won the war,”
“One-on-one against Hitler’s Germany, we would not have withstood its onslaught and would have lost the war. No one talks about this officially, and Stalin never, I think, left any written traces of his opinion, but I can say that he expressed this view several times in conversations with me.”
Kruschev Memoirs
If you doubt that Russia is the aggressor, let me invite you to read ‘FSB Outline of Operational Aims and Means, 21 November 2021.’
Translation: ‘While the 9th Directorate of the FSB’s Fifth Service Department for Operational Information prepared for the occupation of Ukraine from July 2021, the 11th Unit of the Department for Operational Information, responsible for Moldova, was assessing plans for the next round of operations under the direction of Major General Dmitry Milyutin. In November 2020, the FSB’s strategic objective in Moldova was to bring about ‘The full restoration of the strategic partnership between Moldova and the Russian Federation’.
And why not have a look at some other documents from the Russian Presidential Directorate for Cross-Border Cooperation whose task is to create a ‘Union State’ incorporating neighbouring countries that Russia sees as in its sphere of influence: Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Belarus, Ukraine and Moldova, into the ‘Russian Federation’.
Translation: ‘Russia’s strategy for Belarus focuses on what the document calls “the humanitarian sphere,” One stated long-term objective is doubling the number of Belarusian students studying in Russian universities, or “opening of new centres of science and culture” in the Belarusian cities of Mogilev, Grodno and Vitebsk. These centres would be branches of Rossotrudnichestvo, a Russian cultural outreach organization that technically operates under the auspices of Russia’s Foreign Ministry. However, Rossotrudnichestvo is a clearing house for Russian intelligence operatives and agents of influence, making Moscow’s capacity to recruit Belarusians to its security organs that much easier.
The ‘Union State’ program calls for the creation of a network of Moscow-friendly non-governmental organizations (NGOs), with financial and legal support from Russia to keep them running.’
An interesting statistic (albeit from a cursory google search) reveals that during WW2 the US sent 11,000 planes and 6,000 tanks to the USSR.
However the Soviets themselves produced over 157,000 planes and over 87,000 tanks.
Soviet crews nicknamed the Sherman “a coffin for 5 ” and amongst US crews it was known as the Ronson – ” because it lights up the first time”.
The figures would seem to put a different slant on the commonly held perception that it was mainly/solely US supplies that enabled the Soviets to defeat Germany.
That said, we now have German tanks rolling across the Steppe again. That might stir up one or two memories.
A desperate display of ignorance.
How many trucks did the U.S. supply?
How many Valentine tanks did we supply, impervious to most German tank guns, anti tank guns.
The Sherman was a fine tank and the ‘firefly’ variant killed many German tank ‘aces’.
How reliable were Russian tanks (clue: not very).
Stalin knew his stuff…..
No-one spotted the deliberate mistake.
Quite clearly, none of you have a clue what you are talking about.
I have never been anything but unfailingly polite on here sunshine.
But your card is marked.
Idiot.
Get over yourself.
You still haven’t spotted my deliberate mistake.
Ignorance is ignorance.
As the great Huey Lewis once said:
‘That’s just the way it is……’
In WWII the US was a powerhouse. Now it is run by a dementia ridden Resident who couldn’t withdraw from Kabul with any semblance of organisation.
Yes.
American deep state is running the SH1T show !
“…even if Ukraine’s counter-attack smashes Putin’s army …”
Don’t worry, folks. This isn’t going to happen.
On an only slightly related note, let’s fix our own house first.
……and on the day Rishi asks the supermarkets to price cap ‘basic food’..for the first time in something like 50 years..oh yes we are a country to emulate…!!!
You will see…..
Unfortunately on this we can agree……we will ALL get to see.., there isn’t a chance in hell Ukraine on its own can do anything major against Russia..so the Americans and NATO are going to have to escalate this in a huge way..it’s now or never for them, so get ready….
Do you have any idea what the L7 is? No? L30 then…..? Still no?
As I say, you will see……
Will they be any use without massive air support?
You will see…..
A bleak picture for whom?
Why should Russia become ‘Western friendly’..why and how would it benefit Russia?
As for democracy..the author suffers from the usual Western problem..he means the ‘right’ kind of democracy..headed by a USA hegemon…a democracy as defined only by the West…..and if you won’t bend the knee to that you’re labelled an autocrat!!
For good measure he also manages to throw in the usual Russia ‘is in China’s back pocket’ …..because the propaganda demands we throw them in together now…..like a two-for-one deal…
I suspect the people of Russia believe their country is democratic enough..so what’s it got to do with us?…
…and China of course has its own ‘brand’ of democracy which works well for them……they consistently top polls in happiness (IPSOS 2023) and the Edelman Trust Barometer 2023 shows that 89 percent of Chinese trust their government.
Something Western leaders can neither compete with, or match….
Why the hell would they want to be like us, and join us in our stratospheric melt down?
If I were him I would worry more about the economic and financial collapse of the West, …the USA about to default..the German economy (along with the rest of the EU, and Europe) tanking….the sanctions..that have worked against us..the net zero fiasco….and the turmoil all that will bring.…..
….The US elections are next year..and should be a blast!!?…it’s likely Putin will still be there, but Biden won’t……and every single one of the G7 leaders are, if not despised by their electorate, nowhere near as popular as Putin is in Russia….
Well said.
Oh dear!
‘(The Chinese) consistently top polls in happiness (IPSOS 2023)……’
Words fail…….
10% of Hong Hong citizens are relocating to Britain…obviously because the weather and food is so much better here……
I know it must be horrible when reality doesn’t fit your narrow propagandised perspective…..
They have topped the happiness poll for the last couple of years…possibly because another IPSOS poll in 2019 showed that they believed their country was on the right track, and thought their children would have a better life than them because of the growing successful economy…don’t you wish we could say or feel the same?
Latana’s Democracy Perception Index 2022 shows that 83 percent of Chinese believe their country is democratic making it the most democratic nation on earth!
Ash Center at Harvard Kennedy School in 2020 reported that 95.5 percent of Chinese are satisfied with their government.
A 2019 UC San Diego study shows a high level of satisfaction among the Chinese across a range of aspects up to 95%….
Funny that you mention Hong Kong..because for the 150 years + it was a British Colony, they weren’t allowed a democratic vote ever and were ruled by some ‘British’ dude imposed on them..presumably that’s OK though coz they’re the good guys? Perhaps you’d like to do a bit of reading on the subject?
A happiness poll in a totalitarian state is your evidence of ‘happiness’?
Good grief!
I just don’t get the whole whataboutery argument. Hong Kong was not democratic, yes……so what? HK citizens are leaving in droves.
Why do you think that is?
At least consider it possible that they are leaving their entire lives, everything familiar, behind to search for a better life; happiness?
when we’re you last in China? What great insights do you have into that country and its people? I’m assuming it’s the dire propaganda from MSM and nothing else…correct?
whataboutery? You mean that thing thrown about when the facts hurt and you can’t think of anything to say in defence of your own side?
What’s special about Hong Kong other than you are trying to use it for an argument that doesn’t logically follow?…. why do you think millions leave Albania?
I’d stop digging, but it’s you..so…..
Whataboutery is silly illogicality propagated by no hopers like you.
Why do you think millions leave Hong Kong and Albania?
Clue: because they are deliriously happy is what we call the wrong answer….
…LOL….there we have it….’no-hoper’…LOL!
calm down man, nothing we say will make a difference you know….I dread to think what you’ll do if you are slightly wrong…?
Answer the question……
Pure fantasy indeed. There is ZERO possibility of Russia losing this war, despite the hysterically inaccurate and desperate headlines in the Western press. Putin has ample popular support for dealing with existential threats posed to Russia by the West / Nato which is determined to dismantle the Russian Federation by any means, no matter how immoral. Putin picked up the pieces after Yeltsin, rescuing a country that was descending into gangsterism… he spent years making approaches to the West and trying to encourage a role for Nato that did not involve a threat for Russia, he begged for a peaceful compromise in December 2021…. the Americans were not interested – they more or less laughed at him.
For those interested, try
You Tube – Col Douglas MacGregor; ‘Judging Freedom’- Judge Politano; Alexander Mercouris; Brian Berletic ‘The New Atlas’.
Substack – Simplicius the Thinker
There are a great many western analysts who can see this proxy war exactly for what it is. For some strange reason, the Daily Sceptic prefers …. Ian Rons. Not very sceptical, you might say.
…I agree, there’s no real analysis, because everyone they reel-out just repeats the same western narrative…well we know what that is the equivalent of..’safe and effective’….….
It’s as if they honestly don’t understand the different things happening on a global level..whether it be the enlargement of BRICS, the rapprochement between Saudi and Iran, the fact that Syria is now back in the Arab league… that Saudi is likely to join the Shanghai Cooperation Treaty…massive global changes. The fact that a majority of the world don’t back sanctions on Russia ..that Russia’s economy is recovering…that several countries are now dealing in local currency and avoiding the dollar…while Europe watches its industry die……land that Erdogan has been re-elected in Turkey…
It just like the giant scamdemic..propaganda and lies….
if you cant win a real war win an imaginary one.
What do you mean by ‘Russia losing this war’?
Putin, the very perfect example of a gangster, rescuing Russia which was “descending into gangsterism”. Really?
Its all gone well since Sadam & Gadafi were relentlessly smeared & then bumped off ! I know let’s do it to Putin ! It’s worked before , Not !!.. W-nkers !
Well said Freddy..it’s that famous thing isn’t it? Doing the same thing over and over again and expecting a different outcome….
What is this fantasy. More chance of seeing Lord Lucan riding Shergar down the Mall than the ragbag Ukranians defeating Russia. The Russians have been playing softball so far. Does anybody believe Kiev would be standing if Russia wanted to raze it to the ground?
Exactly !
The Russians have had a major stuffing…and guess what….it is going to get a great deal worse.
I wish I could be so cavalier with other people’s lives..especially after ‘virtue signalling’ hundreds of thousand of deaths already…
If you support Putin then you have no concern for loss of life.
So give up the faux piety…..and answer the question above…..
I don’t support either..something you purposely fail to understand….
Looking at reality and facts isn’t taking a side..being critical of the West, doesn’t mean you support Putin.
The West are prolonging this conflict and have been from the beginning…you will have to face the fact that your ‘support’ for the actions of the American hegemon has caused the loss of hundreds of thousands of Ukrainian lives at some stage…
I meanwhile want it to stop, full stop..I always have….I don’t care who wins, or who gets what land..that can be discussed later…after the killing stops..I don’t think you can say the same.
That’s because Monro probably works for 77 Brigade.
In a spirit of helpfulness, the ingestion of harmful chemicals is really bad for your mental health.
Your comments are verbose; silly.
If you wish the war to stop now, then you support Putin, whether you like it or not, because that is what he wants…..until he is ready to go again.
The war between Russia and Ukraine stopped in 2014. And then it started again.
Putin will never stop until he is stopped and the Ukrainians, and everyone else, have finally worked that out…..with one or two rather slow exceptions.
No I don’t, you are so crazed you are talking rubbish. I didn’t agree with anything to do with the scamdemic either. So does that mean I supported it?
You are a walking talking propaganda machine, if we aren’t with you we are against you… sorry that’s nuts….and a pure US propaganda trope…there are two sides and you only see one, you conveniently memory hole anything you don’t like…so will never be able to discuss rationally… so at this stage I’ve done…got paint I need to watch dry.
A hopeless lack of logic, stream of non sequiturs; rather slow.
Stop talking about yourself.
Very good. My children used that one a lot…..when they were five years old.
I’m reading elsewhere that Putin has never been more popular in his own country.
When I hear speeches like this I begin to understand why…
https://twitter.com/robertsepehr/status/1661587348730290176
Excellent speech why aren’t our politicians saying the same things?
If putin falls from power, the world is in a word screwed. Ukraine is the third most corrupt country in the world, probably after the USA and the UK. Please visit Russia, the people of that country love their leader. I am certain that cannot be said in the USA or the UK about its leaders.
I think people are dreaming when talking about the ‘counter offensive’. If you listen to seasoned and realistic professional army – you get a better picture – well at the very least another view. Try Colonel Douglas McGregor – US Army retired for example.
And BTW – I can just see Churchill talking to the BBC about the imminent “great offensive” in 1944 – sounds like a great idea. I dont think so.
Why not listen to Russians: Girkin, Prighozin, for example?
I’m sorry if you think Prighozin is serious when he says these things..I think he’s a master at trolling..did he tell you what you wanted to hear??
You should be sorry.
You really are not very bright and or you work for 77 brigade.
Taking that stuff is making you sound a bit dotty.
….the problem here is Churchill, and people around him were diplomats of high calibre…and actually wanted an end to the war….….
The American neo cons, Boris, Ursula and Borrell..it’s being kind to say they are just incompetents….
I expect America to escalate this to WW3 simply because they ARE that stupid and reckless….and incapable of understanding they might actually lose..or pay a very high price for their idiocy…
Why not take a quick look in the mirror. In fact don’t…it might spoil the entertainment…..
Chatham House think-tank = WEF globalist technocracy
bfbf334 = WTF euronumpty
China.
The USA and its NATO poodles should consider which they would prefer on their side in the face of rising Leviathan, Russia or Ukraine.
Neither China nor Russia under their present regimes can co-exist with neighbouring capitalist democracies since to do so is to expose their totalitarian socialism to ridicule.
Japan was the emerging leviathan in the 1980s but the Japanese economy then stalled due to its ‘statist’ economic model.
The same is now true of China:
‘China’s rapid rise is slowing down. Mr Xi promises a “great rejuvenation” of his country in the coming decades, but the economy is now undergoing something more prosaic: a great maturation. Whereas a decade ago forecasters predicted that China’s gdp would zoom past America’s during the mid-21st century (at market exchange rates) and retain a commanding lead, now a much less dramatic shift is in the offing, resulting in something closer to economic parity.’
The Economist 11 May 2023
We should thank our lucky stars for the cool heads in Moscow, particularly Putin, Lavrov and Zakharova.
Almost anyone else and Britain especially would already be radioactive ash.
If Putin goes, the likely successor will be much more hard-line, with WW3 even closer.
Time to get real. Let’s listen to someone living close to Russia who knows what he is talking about:
‘…..the next leader of Russia will still be sharing the same worldview as Putin, coming from the same circle. The security services are likely to also remain in a strong position. And Russia will still be autocratic, it will still be imperialistic in the mindset of its elite and leadership.’
‘Western policy should now be planned according to the assumption that Russia will remain authoritarian and will not give up its military ambitions.
This means that the main thing is to further strengthen defence and deterrence and develop a containment policy similar to the Cold War times.
I don’t think we should be afraid of that.
Some Western politicians seem to see this as something terribly negative, saying that “Oh, we don’t want to go back to the Cold War scenario”.
But now we have a hot war.
So, if the Cold War type of containment policy would be a way to deter Russia and stabilise the situation, that would be much better than the current situation of war.
And as long as Russia is so different from our societies, as long as it is an authoritarian, aggressive system, I don’t see a possibility of developing close cooperation or normal ties with the country.
I think it’s widely acknowledged in the West that we need to be prepared for this long-term confrontation and containment and to strengthen defence and deterrence.’
Kristi Raik, Deputy Director of the Estonian International Centre for Defence and Security (ICDS)
I feel the biggest problem with The Russian / Ukraine conflict is Biden. Biden is a weak, incompetent, geriatric president without any idea how to deal with Russia. Putin thought that he was so weak that he would not continue to support Ukraine, so he thought he could attack Ukraine and easily win in a short time. Now whoever is pulling Biden’s strings sees the conflict as a means of trying out weapons and discovering how their weapons would work against Russia. Any strong, intelligent US President would try to get Putin on side, by saying the US could provide Ukraine with the weaponry needed to make it impossible for Russia to win and persuading Ukraine to negotiate a deal that allowed Russia to save face. There is so much at stake here and if things carry on as they are with the US providing Ukraine with only half-arsed support, this war could carry on for many years more and Russia would work towards an alliance with China in an attempt to end it. Leaving America and the West facing a deeply committed enemy. I seriously think, despite the left wing hatred of Trump if he had been the President now, the war would have been over more than a year ago or may not have even happened in the first place.