Is Xi Jinping About to Be Pushed Out?

Is Chinese President Xi Jinping – the great architect of the Covid lockdowns – about to be defenestrated? Those are the rumours coming out of China – and the fallout from the crippling lockdowns is part of the reason. Francis Pike in the Spectator has more.

Is it a coincidence that the expunging of Xi Zhongxun [Xi Jinping’s father] has come to light while Xi himself seemingly disappeared from public view in the last two weeks of May? Chinese institutions are always alert to changes in the political wind – no more so than the state media. Recently China-watchers have detected subtle changes. Xi, usually on every front page of the People’s Liberation Army Daily, has been much less prominent. Shen Ming-Shih, a Director of the Institute for National Defence and Security Research in Taiwan, has observed “a noticeable decline in the official references to Xi”.

In the past, Xi has been described as the “eternal core of the party”. As recently as December, the People’s Liberation Army Daily wrote that decisions should “rely on a single voice of authority”. Now it praises the virtues of “collective leadership”. In addition, Shen has pointed out that academics at Peking University and South China University of Technology have not been punished for writing essays critical of Xi’s policies.

Remarkably, Hu Jintao, Xi’s predecessor and faction opponent, who, in front of the world’s press, was humiliatingly manhandled out of the CCP’s 20th National Congress in October 2022 by Xi’s bodyguards, seems to be making a comeback. On May 19th, the People’s Daily and Xinhua News both published articles using Hu catchphrases that reference “scientific, democratic and law-based decision-making”. Wen Jiabao, the supposedly billionaire former Chinese premier, is another elder who is reportedly on manoeuvres.

In May, the usual monthly politburo meeting did not take place. Furthermore, Xi has not been present at high-level meetings of the Central Military Commission (CMC) of which he is Chairman. His place has been taken by General Zhang, who is not a Xi faction member. CMC chairmanship is central to the power of a CCP General Secretary.

Uncertainty about the direction of the People’s Liberation Army has contributed to the rumours of change in China’s leadership. Hei Weidong, Vice-Chairman of the CMC and a member of Xi’s Fujian faction, was suddenly arrested in April. Xi was governor of Fujian Province in the late 1990s. In November last year, another of Xi’s Fujian clique, Admiral Miao Hua, who was head of the CMC’s Political Work Department, was put under investigation for “serious violations of discipline” – the usual newspeak for corruption. On April 30th, he was dismissed. Other Xi generals have reportedly been removed from their posts.

In the realm of economic management there are also signs of discontent. It is widely recognised that Xi’s repressive handling of the Covid pandemic was catastrophic. In the end it was public protest that forced him to end lockdown. By Chinese standards, post-Covid recovery has been anaemic. A property crash has destroyed consumer confidence and has also landed provincial governments with unsustainable levels of debt. Graduate unemployment has risen sharply. Many are fleeing to the West to find employment. …

Xi’s two-week disappearance in May seemed to support the theory that he has already been frozen out. So, did his reappearance on June 4th when he met Belarus leader Alexander Lukashenko lay to rest the rumours of his political demise? Quite the opposite. The meeting, which was abnormally held in Xi’s house, was strangely subfusc and devoid of normal protocols. Reporting was delayed and brief and did not feature any quotations from the President. The press photographs were lifted from Belarusian media as though Chinese reporters and photographers were not allowed to be present. …

The demise of Xi has been predicted before and there can be no certainty that the recent waves of rumours are accurate. Even if they are true, it remains possible that Xi could stage a comeback and put his enemies to flight. However, given the dire problems facing China and the indifferent performance of its leader, it seems quite plausible that forces within the CCP have had enough of the dictatorial Xi, who, just two years ago, had presumptuously declared his intention to rule until 2032. If Xi falls, or indeed has already fallen, the consequences for Taiwan and US-China relations could be dramatic – and possibly beneficial to both.

Worth reading in full.

If even Xi Jinping can be brought low in part due to the horrendous lockdown policy, it gives hope that such draconian shutdowns will be consigned to the past as a mistake never to be repeated. Even if the latest rumours turn out to be untrue, or exaggerated, it’s clear that lockdowns have hurt Xi rather than bolstered his position in China – they are hardly being celebrated as a great success, more treated as something embarrassing to be quietly forgotten. Should the world ever again face a somewhat mysterious virus outbreak, surely politicians across the world will be more likely now to look back on the 2020s and think twice – and then some – before concluding the right response is to confine the population to their homes.