Dramatic confirmation that the sea ice in the Arctic has been stable for nearly two decades is contained in a recently published science paper from a team led by Dr Mark England from the University of Exeter. The finding is of course obvious to anyone who studies the data but it will inconvenience the activist cranks who continue to promote supposed reductions in Arctic sea ice as an important sign of their imaginary ‘tipping points’ and their fake climate crisis. Despite the data showing the ice has been stable over every month in the year since around 2007, Sir David Attenborough told BBC viewers in 2022 that the region could be summer ice-free by 2035. The climate hysteric Al Gore never quite recovered his authority when he said all the ice could be gone by 2014.
There is still an occasional sighting in mainstream media but the ice vanishing act is having to be retired. In fact the smarter scientists seem to be rushing to accept the ice data while moving the climate trenches back to more defendable lines. The England paper notes a “surprising, but not unexpected pause” simulated by climate models, “relatively frequently”. Old school to the end, the Guardian reported last March that “scientists say” that ice-free summers were possible in the Arctic within the next decade.
Here is the graphic evidence from the two databases consulted by the England team.
These scientists are not the only ones to spot something that appears to have alluded mainstream journalists, scientists and politicians, keen as always to promote the Net Zero fantasy. Recently, the Arctic scientist Allan Astrup Jensen noted that the summer ice had plateaued from 1979-97, and then fell for 10 years. Either side of the drop – manna from heaven for climate cranks – there have been losses, albeit minimal ones. In fact, evidence shows that 1979 was a high cyclical point in Arctic sea ice, a cherry-picked date that conveniently marks the start of more accurate satellite measurements. Sea ice extent was lower in the 1950s and observations stretching back 200 years suggest a 70-80 year waxing and waning cycle. In line with these findings, scientists suggest ocean currents play a large part in determining the sea ice extent.
Last year, the Daily Sceptic noted that Arctic sea ice had soared to its highest level for 21 years. The article noted this interesting and correct fact but made our usual point that ice trends can only be understood over a long, preferably very long term context. The BBC More or Less statistical radio programme referred to the article without putting the high in context. Rather it provided a case study in how alarmists counter the obvious lengthy pause. Professor Julienne Stroeve from UCL suggested the ice extent was thinner, although the presenter Tom Colls had to admit, “the data is not available yet”. What you see, claimed Stroeve, is that the trend is downwards for four decades. The overall decline in long-term Arctic ice is very easy to see, added Colls. A more statistically objective view, something the programme constantly tells listeners it aims to provide, might have noted the lower levels of the 1950s and the recent obvious lengthy pause.
Of course when you are in the climate alarm business, there is a frequent need to explain why the various scares and tipping points never seem to occur. One favoured approach is to simply ignore any unwelcome improvement such as the coral growing back in record amounts on the Great Barrier Reef, and hope nobody has noticed. The other favoured tactic is to state that the computer models that predict one thing are in fact still entirely correct when the opposite occurs. We might refer to this as the ‘global warming leads to global cooling’ explanation. Since computer models rely on inadequate human input of a chaotic and non-linear atmosphere that is impossible to fully understand, it is usually possible to claim with a tweak or two that they were right all along.
The England paper is to be congratulated for laying out the Arctic sea ice data but most of its work is seemingly designed to stay onside with those using computer models to provide what is sometimes called ‘evidence’ of a climate crisis. Rather than the multi-decadal pause being an unexpected event, the scientists note, “comprehensive climate models from CMIP5 and CMIP6 simulate such pauses relatively frequently”. According to these climate model simulations, it is noted, “this pause in the loss of Arctic sea ice could plausibly continue for the next five to 10 years”. ‘Plausible’ and ‘evidence’, it might be reasonably pointed out, are not words that always spring to mind when considering the output of climate computer models. It is of course only one small step that is needed for the crystal ball pseudoscientists to claim they can use models to attribute individual weather events to humans eating Big Macs and driving SUVs.
We can assume that the sea ice predictions of Gore and Attenborough were also derived from computer models – ever reliable to provide whatever scare you want to promote.
But all can be forgiven in the climate Armageddon business, particularly if you happen to be a high-profile eco loon like Gore. It would have been a “rather brave person” to have predicted that a sustained slowdown in ice loss was just around the corner after the large losses of 2007 and 2012, states the England team. This despite the ensuing pause which many have shown was “entirely consistent with what climate models simulate”. What utter bunk. How brave do you need to be to understand past sea ice cyclical trends? How much intelligence is required to abstain from making ludicrous predictions of an ice-free Arctic on the basis of two years’ data? And why give a free pass to a redundant American politician looking for a role who has helped cause enormous societal distress and economic destruction by inventing a climate crisis primarily designed to impose a supra-national collectivist agenda?
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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“surprising, but not unexpected pause”
Both surprising and not unexpected. How does that work then?
classic isn’t it.
your models are wrong and full of horse shit. you said the arctic would melt in 2013, 2014, 2018, 2025….
nah. our models are 1000% accurate. the current stasis/expansion is precisely what we have been ‘predicting’
what a joke the climate con is, all data points lead to ‘weather-geddon’ from the plant food
If you believe the climate models are wrong then you can download the source code of NASA GISS ModelE and prove that they are wrong.
What is an ‘expected surprise’ and how does it compare to a known unknown, an unknown unknown and unknowns we know nothing about?
Another excellent article from Chris Morrison which I will put in a back pocket to produce with a flourish when my sister next claims we’re all doomed, doomed I say.
However, are you using voice to text software? It seems to have misheard you.
These scientists are not the only ones to spot something that appears to have
alludedeluded mainstream journalists, scientists and politicians, keen as always to promote the Net Zero fantasy.“Another excellent article from Chris Morrison”
Hear hear👏
What are you eluding to?
🤔
“The climate hysteric Al Gore never quite recovered his authority when he said all the ice could be gone by 2014.”
As did John Kerry!
Cue Professor Feynman from decades ago…
“…The first principle is that you must not fool yourself and you are the easiest person to fool.”
To which add the corollary – “The second principle is that to convince others you must first convince yourself. Make yourself hard to convince.”
Principles voodoo climate-scientists nefariously unaware of. Hold accountable for Europe’s Great Leap Backward, Professor Charlatan FRS, as useful idiot of the sundry Malthusians, miscellaneous misanthropes and self-appointed universe-masters of the UN, WHO, IPCC, Club of Rome, WEF and the diversity of associated fellow-travellers.
Meanwhile China, India and the rest of the BRICS countries are laughing all the way to the most recently-commissioned coal-fired power stations.
Go figure, Professors, Prime Ministers and Great British Public.
With theories that predict everything, whatever happens was predicted by the theory. Darwinian Evolutionary Theory was the celebrated forerunner of this principle.
I think that may be unfair to Darwin. Darwin showed how evolution as a process was likely to behave, but he did not predict outcomes, just process. He discussed what charcteristics might work positively in evolution [e.g faster, better vision] but never went so far as to design how future species would look, unlike the eco-loons and their melting ice caps, rising sea waters, global boiling, etc etc.The eco-loons claim to predict actual outcomes, which of course has a strong history in religion and folklore
I’m talking about the state of the science now. Darwin proposed criteria (largely met!) by which “my theory would absolutely fail.” Fossil record non-gradualist, non-stepwise organ development, etc. But it has now become such dogma that, like climate science, retrospective predictions are rife.
The theory’s prediction of useless Junk DNA fails? “The theory always predicted we would find function.” New, underived, Orfan genes appear in every species sequenced, overturning nested hierarchies? The theory predicted them (but only after being confronted by them).
Believe me, I spent ten years of my life listening to stuff like that – the climate excuses didn’t surprise me, because they just copied the existing playbook.
Arctic Sea Ice is an area of ice, not mass. Therefore the area can change whilst mass stays the same.
Area is influenced by wind, sea currents, underwater activity – which can either spread the ice or compact it, or push it into warmer Atlantic waters where it melts.
Climatism is the con of selecting a suitable, narrative-supporting, single variable from a multi variable system and awarding it single, causal effect status.
If you would like to read older and longer articles on this topic search for “sunriseswansong sea ice”. And Tony Heller, of course.
Thank you Chris Morrison. I am grateful for all the work you do to bring these recent scientific papers to a wider audience, and put them in the context of all the bunk we have told in the past.
It seems like the climate alarmists’ chickens are coming home to roost in the Iberian peninsula. Their electricity grid has turned itself off reportedly due to an excess of solar power leading to extreme frequency fluctuations which are almost impossible with high inertia electromechanical generation.
‘Plausible’ and ‘evidence’, it might be reasonably pointed out, are not words that always spring to mind when considering the output of climate computer models.
Quite. ‘Bull’ and ‘Shit’ are far more accurate descriptions.
Some graphs on the actual income and wealth of Global Warming / Climate Change propagandists for the period 1970 to 2025 would be very interesting.
Cynical old me thinks both have probably accumulated very nicely as the SCAM has been more and more heavily pushed on a gullible public.
Beautifully written piece, Mr Morrison