On January 31st five years ago, at around 6pm, I was on my way home from work having popped into Fenwick’s, Newcastle’s finest department store, to buy a celebratory bottle of whisky (15 year-old Springbank, since you’re asking). The 31st of January, you see, was Brexit Day – and I was pleased about it.
Taking a shortcut through M&S, I bumped into a friend who I knew to be a fellow Leave-voting academic (yes, there are some); we had a jovial conversation about the feeling of great relief that had surged through the nation – I think including most people who had voted Remain – now that, for good or ill, the nonsense was finally over and we could get on with our lives. All of it – the ‘second referendum’; the MPs singing protest songs in Parliament; the odious braying of John Bercow; the legislative shenanigans; the conspiring between Remain-voting Parliamentarians and their EU counterparts; Gina Miller and Jolyon Maugham; the relentless flow of ‘despite Brexit’ news stories; Ed Davey bellowing inane things into loudhailers at Whitehall rallies; everybody becoming overnight experts on things like Euratom and the use of Henry VIII clauses; ‘hard’ and ‘soft’ and ‘red, white and blue’ Brexit; Rory f***ing Stewart and his citizens’ assemblies – all of it was gone forever; all of it had been consigned to the dung heap of history where it well and truly belonged.
I had nothing against Remain voters, you understand. How could I? Almost everybody I knew was in that category. And I well understood the arguments in favour of remaining. I had resented being forced to make a binary choice; I was essentially against Britain’s membership of the EU but I thought a referendum was a foolish way of deciding the issue one way or the other. I had sympathy with the idea that Britain was better in a club than off on its own in an ocean full of sharks, and I also felt that a strong conservative case could be made for remaining in the EU as opposed to upending the apple cart and leaving.
And yet when push had come to shove I had chosen the ‘Leave’ option because, in the end, everything the EU does gestures towards everything that is dangerous in what Nietzsche called “great politics” – the urge to make a new Europe through the concerted efforts of an elite pan-continental caste of ‘good’ Europeans. This, as I saw it, was a manifestation of a theme in European history dating back millennia and identified in François Guizot’s The History of Civilisation in Europe, which warns of a centralising impulse animating European politics against its true spirit. Europe is, for geographical reasons, not meant to achieve political unity, and yet it eternally strives for it – and it is in that striving that it courts disaster.
Faced with the choice to ‘Remain’ or ‘Leave’, in other words, I felt it had to be ‘Leave’, because I think the very existence of the EU will doom, and is dooming, the population of the continent. The project will fail and in the failing will bring about catastrophe. The European peoples are better off without it. There were no hard feelings, in other words – there was just a vote, and a choice exercised, on my part in view of what I considered to be prudent in the long run.
And as I said goodbye to my friend and walked out into the January night, I did so in a mood of genuine optimism. It seemed to me that something important had been achieved that went far beyond finally – finally! – achieving the referendum result. We had created a set of conditions that were necessary, if not in themselves sufficient, for national renewal. We could control our own destiny again – not the least important aspect of this being that we once again had a political class who, unlike was the case when we were in the EU, we could thoroughly reject through the ballot box.
Even more importantly than that, though, I felt we had managed to pass through a genuine crisis relatively unscathed. It had been a political crisis – Jeremy Corbyn came within a hair’s breadth of becoming Prime Minister in 2017; John McDonnell almost became Chancellor; and in 2018-2019 our governing class almost managed to conspire to overturn the result of a national referendum. But the problems had gone far deeper than that – we had witnessed a constitutional crisis in the true sense, in that the order which the ‘some’ imposed upon the ‘many’, as they do in any regime, had been radically destabilised by a fundamental opposition between those two groups. Parliament, and the governing class as a whole, had wrenched itself out of alignment with what most of the population either wanted (in the form of ‘Leave’ voters) or felt ought to happen to respect the vote (the great bulk of ‘Remainers’). And its very legitimacy had been put at risk as a result.
But the fever had broken before serious damage had been done, or so it seemed to me that January evening. Our constitutional arrangements – the basic Diceyan idea (completely misunderstood by most MPs, the Supreme Court and political commentators) that Parliament is supreme only because and insofar as it represents the electorate, who are sovereign – had won through. The voters had exercised their constitutional role at the end of 2019 and commanded Parliament to represent them. And Parliament now did. This had healed the rift between the ‘some’ and the ‘many’ in our regime, it seemed to me, and we could now look forward to at least a potential new era of genuine political representation in government.
Five years is a long time in politics, though, and it’s fair to say that a bunch of stuff has happened since that night. The period of optimism lasted just over a month, until the Covid era began, and things have never been quite the same since.
And this has cast the entire Brexit farrago in a fresh light. It no longer feels anything like the beginning of a period of national renewal but rather something more akin to what in military parlance would be described as a reconnaissance-in-force: an attack which provokes the enemy into revealing its strength. For what the ‘Leave’ vote, and Boris Johnson’s eventual triumph, seemed to in the end achieve was only the revelation of the extent to which British institutions have been hollowed out and corrupted. It showed our governing classes to be more loyal to the values of transnationalism and globalism than to the people whom they purport to serve and represent (and who largely fund their salaries), and more interested in imposing their own will – and their own vision of the national interest – on society than giving effect to what their fellow country-men and -women actually want. And what we have seen since January 31st 2020 has only seemed to confirm the grip of that class, and the imposition of its will, on British national life – with our current Government doing little but buttress that trend.
In the period after 2016 I frequently found myself irritated with the lazy and glib way that people on either side of the Atlantic drew connections between Brexit and the first election of Donald Trump, partly because that seemed to me to obscure the many differences between the Brexit and MAGA movements, and partly because it was so naked an attempt to smear both as a sort of emergent populist axis of evil threatening to flood the world with fascism, disinformation and bad juju.
Yet in retrospect the parallels do become obvious. Trump came to power in 2017 imagining that he could govern as a President in the ordinary way, and discovered that when he pulled levers he mostly got inactivity or aggressive pushback. Boris Johnson’s Government seemed to experience the same thing from a clearly resentful – even vengeful – civil service (not to mention many Tory MPs). In both circumstances the expectation among the winners was that in the aftermath of a political victory the other side would respond to defeat in good faith. They thought in other words that they had been engaged in something like a chess match, the loss of which the eventual loser would accept with a smile and a handshake. What they found instead was that they had just fought out the opening exchanges in a knife-fight. This was not the old politics; they were in the world now of Carl Schmitt, not Jimmy Carter and Gerald Ford. And this confused and deflated them.
The question now – setting all substantive matters concerning Trump 2.0 to one side – is whether the British ‘populist’ Right will respond in the same way to its current predicament as its American counterpart did to similar circumstances in 2021. Whether or not Trump will be a good President in the long run, the way he has gone about his second term so far is indicative – as I have previously written – of a very serious and sustained effort on the part of American conservative intellectual elites to think through the political goals they want to achieve, the broad strategy that will help achieve them and the tactics that will realise them in practice. And there is no doubt that they underwent that effort in view of what that first, abortive reconnaissance-in-force revealed in 2017-2020 about the nature of what they were up against. Is it within the hearts and heads of the British Right to undertake that sort of an endeavour, in view of what the damp squib of Brexit showed them? Can they use the consequences of their previous failings to plan effectively for a reclamation of power? And can – this is the question on everybody’s lips – the desperately hoped-for national renewal then, finally, follow?
Dr David McGrogan is an Associate Professor of Law at Northumbria Law School. You can subscribe to his Substack – News From Uncibal – here.
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“Can they use the consequences of their previous failings to plan effectively for a reclamation of power?’
If we simply look north, the SNP in power for twenty years on 30% support, the answer must be a resounding ‘No!’
The leaders of Reform and the Conservative Party must effect some kind of arrangement, but there is no sign of that whatsoever. Quite the contrary.
I can’t see Farage reaching any kind of arrangement with Badenough …. the woman who demonstrated she has no understanding of “the old City” concept that still operated in the 1980s when Farage worked there – My Word is my Bond.
She accused him of lying and fraud over Reform Party membership. And when various journalists (not always friendly ones) confirmed that the tracker was reliable, she still didn’t have the decency to apologise.
Yesterday, Reform held its first rally in Badenough’s Constituency.
If Farage does a deal with any branch of the Uniparty they will lose my vote immediately although given the corruption within our political system I still consider voting a token exercise at best.
After her “protest vote” comment (see news roundup) the Tory leader has lost what little credibility she had in my eyes.
I imagine I will vote Reform next time and don’t think they should form a coalition with the Tories. I have resigned myself to the fact that there is simply nothing close to majority support for the type of conservative libertarian nationalist political view I take.
There needs to be an arrangement. To win an election a party needs geographical heartlands with safe parliamentary seats. The Tories have these.
Hopefully by the next election the Tories will have become irrelevant.
Why ever would two Parties… Reform & Conservative… with diametrically opposed policies, vision and outlook “effect some kind of arrangement”.
There might just as well be an “arrangement” between Reform & Labour!
Farage, in charge of the Brexit Party did effect an arrangement with the Tories to ensure the Boris Bunch git elected to “get Brexit done” and firvhisctroibles was betrayed and bad-mouthed. I don’t see him getting bitten twice.
The best thing for us is for Reform to annihilate the Conservatives, so then the clear choice is free market capitalist economy, sovereignty of the individual, property Rights, restoration of British culture, and prosperity for all or Marxist-Socialism and social and economic destruction.
The price for an arrangement if necessary is the ejection from the Tory party of any of their left wing scum that are still MPs at that point.
Second wonderful article from Dr McG in two days. A sceptic’s cup overfloweth.
Interesting improptu natter yesterday with a representative of the “working people” Sir Two-Tier claims to strive tirelessly for – a father of two young childen doing sterling work up the scaffolding re-roofing our house. We both originate from the same North Midlands industrial soil, albeit in different eras.
Europe, immigration, taxes, energy bills, vaccines – has worked it out all for himself.
The Red Wall is there for the taking.
The problem is that people such as roofers, doing real jobs, are increasingly outnumbered by an unholy alliance of the over-educated middle classes, and public sector unions, who tend to vote Labour/Lib-dems/Green.
A quick look at the last election does not back up your claim. 20% of the electorate voting for Labour, including anti-Tory votes and Reform matching the LimpDumb Davey Clown Show for votes.
Great article.
At yesterday’s Reform rally in NW Essex (Badenough’s Constituency) Rupert Lowe MP spoke of the need for A Great Repeal Bill when Reform enters Office.
I wonder if they’re in direct contact with Dr David Starkey?
Farage and the team will be in Durham today. I also wonder if Dr McGrogan will be attending?
Slightly broadening this subject, Blair has spoken up for digital ID cards again today thinking it will stop Labour votes leaking to RUK.
What a brilliant idea and will have the opposite to what he wishes for. As the block voting areas will vote for their own Party instead to avoid any digital surveillance.
The NHS staff will also vote against as it is the first steps needed towards an insurance based National health scheme. Resulting in even less seats for Labour.
I was opposed to ID cards but with so many unregistered “visitors” around now I have changed my mind.
Me too. A lack of ID cards is why many illegal immigrants pass through other European countries before making their way here. As most other European countries have ID cards it makes it much more difficult to disappear. I’m not convinced by digital ID, but a photographic ID card and a legal obligation to produce it when asked makes sense.
Oh dear PeterM & Pete – do you really think ID Cards will be used to track, catch and expel illegal immigrants? No they will be used against us for tracking and surveillance and control. Immigrants will be waved through unmolested. Mass immigration is what “they” want. It is not an accident or incompetence.
So how well does having ID cards work in France and Germany then?
Good article.
I have no regrets about voting leave but it has done us no good – other than perhaps highlighting that the Uniparty are a bunch of globalist socialists and we need to stop voting for any of them.
Neither Badenough nor Farage can bring about the revolution that is required. They are both too timid.
Badenoch for sure. Farage was persistent and energetic and quite skilled I suppose in his pursuit of Brexit so he may surprise though I doubt he will get the chance and yes he’s probably too nice.
But when it comes to talking about “betrayal”, the one person most heavily implicated in causing the mess that Brexit became was Farage himself. Way back in 2002-3 he was strongly advised that we needed a “exit and survival plan” to ensure that the leaving process was coherent and delivered the anticipated benefits, while avoiding the more obvious pitfalls.
Then and several more times in successive years, Farage rejected that advice which, in the absence of any initiative from the official “Vote Leave” campaign, meant that we emerged from the successful referendum with no clear (or any) idea of what to do next.
A good indication as to why Farage – owner of Reform Ltd – is not the man to deliver what this country needs.
Maybe. I always saw leaving the EU as a long term proposition – a decision that we were to be a properly sovereign nation (LOL) for better or worse. I figured (and still do) that we should back ourselves to remain great/become greater without the EU, but the “benefits” were not uppermost in my mind (other than the benefit of being ruled by people we can kick out).
The UK has been a shitshow since Brexit, but it would have been worse if we’d stayed in, and it’s been a shitshow for reasons entirely unconnected to Brexit.
Reform seem to me the only plausible mainstream party that are remotely worth voting for/acceptable. As it stands I would give them the benefit on the doubt. The alternatives are voting for some tiny part or spoiling my ballot paper, which is what I’ve been doing since “covid”.
More to the point, we may ask why did the Tories give a referendum and promise to deliver on the results of that vote when they had no plans in place whatsoever for a Leave outcome.
My issue is, why isn’t he shouting from the rooftops about all these crazy areas like net zero, immigration, power risks, subsidies etc… is he keeping the powder dry? I don’t think they have time for that strategy – they need to ‘do a Trump’ and go at it at 100mph – question is, why aren’t they?
I don’t really follow politics. I vaguely remember their manifesto talking about abandoning net zero but I might be wrong. He certainly does go on about immigration.
Farage may be shouting but can he be heard? It is possible that, similar to AfD in Germany, a firewall has been raised by TPTB and their lackeys in the MSM around ReformUK thus controlling what the public hear.
Who will stand up and be the British Donald Trump – preferably more open to foreign business?
The EU is corrupt and will dissolve sooner or later.
Boris Johnson failed miserably, not even managing to find a Brexit solution for Northern Ireland, let alone setting up free-trading British ports and reviving the British fishing fleet.
Certainly, the globalists are still in charge but the world is a big place and opportunities are many, also to put globalists in their place.
Johnson was always going to fail because the detail needed for Brexit was beyond his limited abilities. Amazing to say but by the end of her tenure in No 10, Theresa May had finally come to understand a lot about how the UK related to the EU but could not get past the ignorance that abounded – and still does given there are morons who still talk about us rejoining the EU Customs Union – throughout Westminster and gave up.
The referendum revealed those who don’t believe in democracy unless they are on the winning side.
It is sardonically ironic that N. Ireland secretary is the man who did most to foul up Brexit
opportunities: Hilary Benn. Will this Government give up our fishermen to the EU? 5 years reflects a sad state of affairs.
An excellent article again David.
My half-Danish wife worked in Italy for 8 years after graduating in 1968. I worked in Italy for 2 years at the end of the 70s in Rieti where we met, married and spent a year in Texas and then a couple back in the UK before I got my dream job on the Cote d’Azur where we stayed for 5 years in the early 80s. My wife got a job back at TI when our youngest was old enough for school too.
We decided to go back to the UK then for the kids’ education, but when we retired early in 2004 we sold up in the UK and bought and restored a rustico in the hills near the sea in Liguria and lived there very happily in 2018.
So we have extensive experience of Europe, lived experience too, not just holidays although we had those too and many work trips all over the continent. We both speak French and Italian fluently. My wife can also get by in Danish, German and Spanish and we receive pensions from both France and Italy.
We both voted to leave as we believe that the EU is bad for normal people and it was surprising how many people in our little Italian village congratulated the UK the next day for having the courage to vote no.
We would happily have stayed out there, but our daughter and Italian partner (who she met on holiday with us) moved back to the UK with their 3 children where our other 3 grandchildren were living, so the pull of family and the difficulty of looking after our steep terraced 1 acre garden with dodgy knees brought us back. We miss Italy and France a lot, but go back regularly and don’t regret our decision.
We also think Brexit was the right choice even if we haven’t taken full advantage of it yet, but the opportunity remains and we can see the regretfully inevitable decline of the EU and think it will collapse under the weight of its own contradictions eventually.
Keep up the good work.
Starting here… “And this has cast the entire Brexit farrago in a fresh light. It no longer feels…” – succinctly put exactly describing the situation.
Too many people don’t know what a Customs Union is and that the EEC/EU is fundamentally a Customs Union the primary function of such is protectionist to keep prices to consumers high for the profit of those producers who are important enough, have enough political clout and deep pockets to capture the State to serve their interests. It is the Mussolini model: State + Big Business + Unions to rule in a mutually beneficial alliance. Consumer pays.
A Customs Union uses tariffs (import taxes) and non-tariffs (regulatory compliance, quotas) to limit external competition thereby protecting domestic entities and market sectors by eliminating competition by price or innovation. It’s sales-pitch is “saving jobs” but consumption is the sole end and purpose of all prodyction (Adam Smith) not to save/create jobs. Of course Socialism is all about keeping the drones fully employed and compliant.
Regulation, subsidies, tax-breaks also limit internal competition from start-ups and SMEs to protect the State cronies.
The result inevitably is stifling of innovation and technological development, strangulation in red-tape and economic stagnation. That’s the EU.
Recently the magical, miracle-like tethering of a landing rocket booster amid a cascade of flame in the US, the work of a private individual and his team with private capital, can be compared with the EU’s great technical achievement du jour, tethering plastic bottle tops to the bottle neck.
Musk’s ambition is to go to Mars, here in the EU and it’s still-serf UK the ambition is to stop bottle tops getting up the nostrils of sea turtles.
USA is good at innovation, invention.
EU is good at regulation, compliance.
It struck me as a rather naive and at the same almost wilfully deluded movement. As if you could ever escape the tentacles of the global financial octopus by maing a move on a level below the true mechanisms of control. Populism has no answers to the real questions because you aren’t going to get many clicks by talking about structural issues. No red meat. No stupid ass feeling of safety in numbers. They thrive on naivete and so you have to know when to keep your mouth shut but it is difficult because the fool is wise in his own conceit. You think you know and it is a wonderful masturbatory experience to see a million others like you who have found the light.