The UK may already be in recession as Rachel Reeves’s record tax raid brings “extended agony” for the economy, an investment bank has warned. The Telegraph has more.
National GDP may be shrinking after a swathe of Labour policies that have “notably damaged” economic growth, analysts at Shore Capital said.
The warning came as separate figures showed consumer confidence has plunged to a 12-month low as households worry that they will lose their jobs in the wake of the Budget.
Clive Black, of Shore Capital, said the UK may have entered 2025 in a “technical recession”, which is classed as two quarters of declining GDP.
He added: “The Prime Minister and the Chancellor of the Exchequer have notably damaged the momentum of the UK economy since they came to power through their flawed messaging and policy announcements.
“The relief that the rotten Tories ‘went’ in 2024 has been replaced by a sense of extended agony, which is especially draining for participants in the UK economy.”
Since Labour’s election victory in July last year, Britain’s economy has flatlined after initially recording the strongest economic growth in the G7 during the first half of 2024.
Although monthly GDP rose marginally by 0.1% in November, disappointing retail sales in December has pushed analysts to warn of a “growing risk” that the economy contracted at the end of last year.
Worth reading in full.
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They are all getting out even the American banks are starting to get jittery about this country. If you leave it too long to get out then you might have difficulties. Just walk down the street and look at it. I’ve been in third world hell holes where the people look happier.
Scamdemic squandering, public sector plundering, climate pandering, energy blundering – extended agony of compulsive economic self-harm.
The cure is now available across the ocean in the New World.
The technicalities of whether we are in a recession don’t interest me much. It just seems obvious that socialism reduces prosperity and freedom, and always will.
Every last advantage we had has been destroyed. The CIA used to list Britain in terms of being a major resource for coal. All gone and shut off or being shut off. Believe me there will be nothing left which is as they want it. Just like they stripped the RAF AWACS aeroplanes down so that they could never be started again. They have destroyed your country and your quality of life and now they just wait for you to drop off. Rot away in the final years under a canopy of toxic fog.
Understand the situation. A lot of people are so lost that they have to dress up as furry animals in order to have sex. What does that tell you? The steam has gone out of the system the culture the mythos has died. Forget all this nonsense about government scrutiny it is grotesque and laughable.
Blimey! Do they do that in Parliament as well?
We finally sold up and got out in August 2024. Aside from a pension, we pulled everything out, and have now stuck over two thirds in property where the weather is nicer, the food better, the scenery much grander, and where there’s far more fun stuff going on.
I don’t weep for England; it’s an arbitrary concept. No, I just tell people to go where you are treated best (courtesy of Nomad Capitalist).
To my two kids, aged 12 and 14, I say:
Find what you enjoy and do it well.
And – Travel! Travel! Travel!
Of course countries are arbitrary but they do make a difference. England is worse off without you, but good luck!
A recession should really be calculated by GDP on a per capita basis. In real terms we have been in a recession for years.
Indeed I find it astonishing that anyone bothers quoting GDP without qualifying it per capita – meaningless!
You can see a pattern developing here.
The ONS admits that it does not have reliable figures for the UK’s population, so they’d claim that it would be impossible to generate any accurate per-capita GDP figures.
Rather than address the problem, they and their political masters prefer to keep quoting the meaningless headline GDP figures knowing that the public are too gullible to question the data.
Indeed. Basic statistics and economics should be taught in schools – but they are probably racist.
Vaguely on topic (economics, politics) I have been ploughing my way through this:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8NLzc9kobDk
Lex Fridman interviewing Javier Milei. It’s rambling in places and Fridman I think should have made it more interactive, but it’s refreshing to listen to a politician who has actually thought about what governments should and should not do and has educated himself a bit about political and economic philosophy.
Unfortunately they are too po-faced and arrogant to admit their mistakes. Hopefully America can demonstrate that lower taxes equates to more revenue, along with less bureaucracy – Less government is what we need!
Predictably, today’s BBC news headlines are dominated by the Elon Musk’s supposed Nazi salute and Donald’s decision to pardon the “Capitol rioters”, neatly avoiding having to address what seemed to be a pretty polished inauguiration speech.
I assume that our media will keep up this snarky line of reporting for the next 4 years, regardless of any evidence of the success of Trump’s policies.
The recent sinking of the pound vs the dollar will make things worse, boosting inflation