For those who have been living on Mars during the last few years, COPs, officially titled Conference of the Parties, are the annual UN-run climate jamborees, intended to forge global agreements to fight climate change. Since the first was held in 1995 in Berlin, the world’s emissions of CO2 have steadily grown by 60%, despite a small reduction in richer countries.
You might therefore have thought that the UN would have taken the hint by now and stopped having COPs. But then the great and the good would not have an opportunity to show the rest of us how important they are, as they fly in on their private jets.
As is the norm, COP29 in Baku, Azerbaijan did not actually address the issue of cutting emissions. It was agreed long ago that developing countries would be under no obligation whatsoever to make any such cuts. Strangely, countries like China, India and the Middle East oil states are all still classified as “developing”, and they have long made it clear they have no intention of following the lemmings over the cliff.
Instead, COP29 was all about the money. For years, poorer countries have been demanding more money to “fight climate change” and “reduce emissions”. Their latest demand is for $1.3 trillion a year.
Currently, the West hands over around $100 billion, but most of this is in the form of repayable loans, which isn’t very attractive to poor African countries who think the money should just be given to them, no strings attached.
In Baku, the richer countries upped their offer to $300 billion a year, but not before a number of poor nations walked out of the conference in disgust. Eventually, developing countries agreed to take the offer, no doubt worried they might not get a penny if they didn’t.
However, the agreement was widely slammed by both environmental charities and many poorer nations. This is all academic, because the recipients of the West’s largesse are unlikely to see much of that $300 billion, particularly if Trump pulls the U.S. out of the Paris Climate Agreement.
To put the money into perspective, if £300 billion is averaged out according to GDP, without the U.S. contribution, the U.K. would end up paying $36 billion a year, which is nearly three times the overseas aid budget. Even Rachel from Accounts would have difficulty magicking this out of thin air!
Needless to say, developing countries will not be obliged to cut emissions in return for their Danegeld. Back in the heady days of 2009, the naive Barack Obama believed that throwing dollar bills around would magically lower the world’s emissions. We now know the reality!
Nor is there any obligation for China, India, or the Middle Eastern oil states, all still classified as “developing”, to cough up a penny.
And more fundamentally, COP29 never even addressed the issue of emission reductions. No new pledges were made, no NDCs updated. Not even a timetable for discussing them in future.
Perhaps the most ludicrous part of the Conference was the first day agreement on carbon markets.
As the BBC explained, a poor country with lots of trees can sell carbon credits to richer nations, so they can continue to burn fossil fuels.
Apparently, carbon emissions are alright, so long as you pay a penance!
It is time to dump these annual jamborees. Western countries need to make it clear that they will not make any further emission cuts until the rest of the world starts doing so as well.
And they also need to refuse to give in to any further blackmail.
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