How quickly is Britain’s ethnic composition changing? We know from the census that the percentage of the population that is white fell from 86% to 82% between 2011 and 2021, while the percentage of the population that is white British fell from 81% to 74%. As recently as 1991, the population of England was 94% white. Which means that practically all of the ethnic change with which we’re familiar has taken place in just 30 years.
However, these statistics don’t give a full picture for two reasons.
First, the period since the 2021 census has seen record levels of immigration into Britain, particularly from non-Western countries like India, Nigeria, China and Pakistan. As a consequence, the rate of ethnic change has likely accelerated in just the last three years. Second, the current ethnic composition will be quite different from the future ethnic composition if groups have different age distributions and levels of fertility. Because whites tend to be older, the white share of the population will decline further purely due to generational replacement.
What about fertility? The Office for National Statistics (ONS) does not publish fertility rates by ethnicity. Some academics have attempted to estimate them using publicly available datasets. For example, a 2016 paper found that South Asians and Afro-Caribbeans have higher fertility rates than whites. It also found that, with the exception of Pakistanis and Bangladeshis, those differences are largely eliminated in the second generation. However, the paper has some limitations and, in any case, the data were from 2009-10.
What the ONS does publish is the distribution of births by ethnicity. This is useful because, in the absence of other influences (i.e., differences in fertility, mortality and migration) it will be the ethnic composition of the country in the future. Here’s the distribution for the year 2023:
As you can see, only 56% of births were white British – which is of course much lower than the percentage of the overall population that is white British (74% in 2021). Consequently, even if mass immigration were to end tomorrow, the White British share of the population would still fall substantially over the coming decades.
It’s unclear exactly how much of the underrepresentation of white British among births is due to ethnic differences in fertility, though part of it almost certainly is. The other part is due to ethnic differences in age distributions: white British women tend to be older and are therefore underrepresented at the ages of peak fertility, i.e., 20-40.
Assuming that mass immigration continues, the white British share of the population in the long run will likely be even lower than 56%. Whether you welcome such change, or regard it as undesirable, there can be little doubt that it is occurring at an unprecedented pace. The matter surely deserves greater prominence in the public debate.
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Leaving aside the ethnicity of children born in the UK. In 2022 only about 60% of children born in the UK had both parents born in this country. I strongly suspect the other 40% are children of recent immigrants and the numbers are not significantly skewed by health/maternity tourism.
(note non-zero y axis).
The trend since 2008 speaks volumes.
Anyone got any info about party policies of Reform UK, Conservatives, Labour, Lib Dem etc on this issue?
Do Greens want to import Green babies from Mars?
Does Climate Party want to reduce the population to cut methane from baby farts?
A depressing trend, true.
But I think we all have to ask ourselves: and what did I do about it?
Undoubtedly our political elite played a massive role in this situation. Yes, they told us lies. But all politicians do.
The sad reality is that, as far as I can see, the white indigenous population of Western Europe has opted for suicide.
They stopped having children.
They aborted them willingly.
They voted for governments that promoted multiculturalism.
So rather than putting all the blame on various governments, I think we all need to examine our conscience and dispel any illusions about how this just happened all without our knowledge and against our will.
Very true but it also exposes a basic problem with our democracies (it is a ‘western’ problem, not just a UK problem) in that politicians promise one thing and then accept another – there is no accountability. I believe many politicians are against illegal immigration and also mass immigration but what steps do they take? None, they accept their fate, whatever that may be.
There is also a moral problem in that you may have one extremist who, for example, somehow manages to alter school curricula so that there are now multiple genders instead of just male and female (or language neuter), but there follow on thousands upon thousands of individuals who accept and enforce the nonsense.
It is sadly clear that all these policies and decisions are wanted and planned by whatever you wish to call them: dark forces, the deep state, George Soros, or who and whatever.
We need more Trumps in the world!
You are right, but still.
I am white. My wife and I have two children. Could we have had more? Potentially, yes. Now of course I could give you a million sensible excuses why we didn’t, but still. I do have a personal responsibility in the decline of the white population because we reproduced below the sustainability level.
Do marxo-fascists spread their vile ideas in the school curriculum? Undoubtedly. Is there a massive public backlash? Do parents complain? Do you see them line up in the headmaster’s office? Not really. But then – what do we expect? That the marxo-fascists will stop and realize the error of their ways…?
So I’m a bit tired of the general idea that bad things happen and it’s all outside our control and it’s got nothing to do with us. No, it’s not that simple. It does actually have a lot to do with us, it enjoys our tacit approval because, let’s face it, we are all a bit cowardly, we don’t want to rock the boat and all that.
There are some brave individuals, sure. Some people are prepared to fight and accept the consequences. But the majority of people – as it was evident during the Covid crisis – are not like that. And so the whole thing carries on.
I think that, by and large, Western culture is finished. We are all a bit old and tired, conflict-avoiding, bereft of any new ideas and just want to enjoy a comfortable retirement before we get put out of our misery by younger, more agile, less touchy-feely people, even if they are not like us. That’s the sad reality at the moment.
I am white. My wife and I have two children. Could we have had more? Potentially, yes. Now of course I could give you a million sensible excuses why we didn’t, but still. I do have a personal responsibility in the decline of the white population because we reproduced below the sustainability level.
That’s the exact problem. Nature works as follows: Animals have a strong sex drive which makes them copulate regardless of the eventual outcome. Hence, they keep getting children they will then have to try to maintain somehow until they can look after themselves.
Around the middle of the last century, a concerted effort was made to liberate (that’s how it was called) humans from the natural, reproductive cycle by developing medications to enable them to have sex without getting children as a side effect. It succeeded and sex life has thus become the modern-day equivalent of the golden calf for all ‘western’ societies, the universal substitute for everything which used to provide meaning in life (like For king and country!). Hence, unless they’ve meanwhile all died out which they inevitably will, they’ll happily continue to work and copulate and copulate and work and work and copulate until they have all died out.
That’s a problem most non-western societies (as far as I know this) don’t have because they’ve never swallowed the lie that children are a useless burden instead of God bestowing a blessing on a relationship he approves of, as the more traditional story went.
This is most certainly not the fault of the people who are nowadays forced to chose if they can afford children as someone ‘unselfishly’ provided them with the technical means to do so.
“…sex life has thus become the modern-day equivalent of the golden calf for all ‘western’ societies, the universal substitute for everything which used to provide meaning in life”
Absolutely spot on!!!
Sex is a Soul Trap, which is why the Devil wants everyone to be obsessed with it.
There are far, far too many people in Britain. We were a net exporter of people during our industrial heyday. I’d love to live in a United Kingdom of say 20 million white Britons which is roughly what it was in early Victorian Britain.
As someone commented yesterday: Blair, Brown, Major and May left Soros out of their memoirs
Are you seriously suggesting that mass black, Arab and Asian immigration would not have occurred if people had continued to have two children to replace two? America was never going to allow Europe and the British dominions to remain white countries after it lost its WASP status.
Now do a chart on the second city Birmingham and you will see that it will become a no-go area for indigenous Brits. It would become a case of make a delivery and don’t hang around. Go to Birmingham NEC Airport and don’t stop before you get there.
Hopefully the non white population don’t believe in ethnic cleansing. I have to say, expecting otherwise does strike me as projection, at least I hope it is.
By 2040 in most urban areas the majority population will be Muslim and Black. They might be ‘born here’ but they are not ‘from here’. Anglo Saxon British Whites are being effaced, replaced, annihilated. All part of the plan.
But hey the important thing is did your footie team win (with its mostly black players) ?
I call the indigenous the pre Windrush generation.
Exactly. Who wants to watch your own English/ Welsh/ Scottish/ Irish / French / German footie team when all the Indigenous players have been replaced by aliens in “The Great Replacement”?
Anyone who “welcomes such change” IMO needs their head examined.
Some civilisations have been good for their citizens, some less good. The differences in outcome are enormous. The only tenable explanation for that is the human capital.
If other civilisations manage to improve themselves hugely, bully for them, but why would White European civilisation want to destroy itself? Because enough people have swallowed “anti racist” bullshit.
Interesting how most Eastern Block countries in Europe are more suspicious of this. Because we were in the West, the Commies & Marxist were free to fester. The Robert Lindsay types.
I’m not sure why the Eastern Block countries are different. Broadly speaking most cultures are not that keen on being swamped by alien cultures. We seem to be the exception.
The UN has declared immigration into a welfare state a fundamental human right and the only people who are ‘keen’ on that are those who are ‘keen’ on everything the UN declares, no matter what is. This – unfortunately – includes most of our irreplacable ruling caste who’d treat the “far right leaders” governing various countries from the former Warsaw pact in the exact same way they’re treating “far right populists” in the countries they control if they only could.
I can tell you why there is more resistance in Eastern Europe, as I was born there.
Because they experienced marxo-fascism and they recognize the beast.
Thanks – that does make sense
Not much, actually. The thoroughly “western” idea that only “Nazis” would claim that a nation is a set of related people sharing a common heritage, language and culture never got any traction east of the former iron curtain. That’s why the nation states which exist there tend to be ruled by national
rapists and murderers… sorry, didn’t mean to sound like Dr Alexander by accident … leaders who think the purpose of the state is to ensure the future and well-being of their own people.These leaders obviously get labelled as closet fascists by our beloved western degenerates all the time but they simply don’t care and neither do their electorates.
They’re also not really succeeding as the national reproduction rates still lead towards eventual extinction, just somewhat slower.
May I please add 300 years of barbaric Ottoman rule
Yes! The Christian Serbs must feel totally betrayed by the Christian West, after they were forced to give their own children into sex slavery, rape and forced circumcision during the 300 years of the Ottoman “DEVSHIRME” = “CHILD TRIBUTE”.
Why indeed. And yet that is what a large part of it seems to want.
I put it down to the de-naturalisation of civilisation. Eventually, the detachment from natural reality is so big that the survival instinct in effect becomes inoperative
The cult of homosexuality and transsexuality and collapsed birth rates would certainly attest to that.
Indeed
I can understand not having tons of children – we only have two – but why anyone thinks importing alien cultures is a good idea is beyond me
Corporations think it is a good idea because there will be more consumers. One worlders think it is a good idea because the destruction of the nation state is accelerated. Establishment Politicians who haven’t a clue how to grow the economy think it is a good idea because GDP increases with population growth. Marxists think it is a good idea because they can roll out the culture wars to sow division and confusion in society in order to further their agenda. Labour think mass immigration is a good idea because the migrants invariably vote Labour. Academia to a great extent think it is a good idea because they live on a different planet.
Indeed
What about the bien pensant class?
Far too trusting of the state for their own good.
Theirs and ours
They will regret it but it’s too late
What is the actual problem here? Is it the gradual inclusion of extra melanin in the collective skins of British people over the next few generations? Really?? I have no problem with everyone ending up coffee coloured as long as British culture and nationhood can survive. People’s skin colour bears no relevance to that and I should think it perfectly possible for second and third generation immigrant Britons to assimilate into our national story just fine. Our black and Asian sports men and women would seem to be excellent examples of that.
So would it not be better to look at cultural differences and the extent to which these are oftentimes perpetuated into the second and third generation of immigrants. I’m thinking of radical religious positions and attitudes to women in particular. The fault for this lies with the daft notion of ‘multiculturalism’ and the rise of ghetto cities which don’t feel British, not because of the colour of the residents’ skins but because they’re all wearing shalwar kameez. The pie chart would be better dividing births up by whether the mother turned up at the hospital in maternity jeans or a burka.
The important thing is not to lose sight of our history, to preserve our landscape, institutions and traditions and persuade those who come to live here that these things are important and relevant to them too. The problem is this government are intent on screwing up all of that.
Don’t let an obsession with skin colour divert us from what matters.
The British Isles are not an EMPTY SPACE ON THE MAP, to be filled in by people from everywhere on the planet, trampling the Indigenous underfoot, committing GENOCIDE against THE WORLD’S SMALLEST ETHNIC GROUP: Ethnic Europeans, who comprised 25% of all the people on the planet in the 1950s, now down to 7%, predicted to fall to 5% within a decade, and TOTAL EXTINCTION AFTER THAT.
Traitors like yourself are GUILTY of VIOLATING THE HUMAN RIGHTS of the INDIGENOUS PEOPLE OF THE BRITISH ISLES, as enshrined in the UN Declaration of the Rights of Indigenous Peoples to protect and preserve their own Ethnic Identity, Traditions, Culture, Religion and Homelands from destruction by Invasive Hostile Alien Cultures.
When every Muslim man is allowed by Islam to have FOUR WIVES and as many children by each one of them as possible, as long as he can support them all financially, which is easy on benefits in the West, how can the monogamous Indigenous Ethnic Europeans possibly compete with that?
“The important thing is not to lose sight of our history, to preserve our landscape, institutions and traditions and persuade those who come to live here that these things are important and relevant to them too.”
Blimey, no, that’s far too diplomatic… Fuck me…
Thats exactly what is being destroyed, and to think you could ever persuade respect for our culture and assimilation is dreamland..
This is the Kalergi Plan taking place, it’s proving extremely effective, not long now and what we once knew was Britain will be gone, there’s no stopping it.
One colour race, with zero national identities, for a one world order…… The Kalergi Plan.
And to save you googling it…
The Kalergi Plan is a “far right, antisemitic, white supremacist, neo nazi, conspiracy theory”
Think we may have heard that one before
Good points well made. Also, good for you for stepping outside of the DS echo chamber and ‘saying’ what you actually think. I’m married to a man of a different ethnicity, who came from a different continent and is a British citizen after many years, embraced the culture and left the religion he was brought up as behind, so subsequently we are a mixed race family. Your points remind me of the article I shared this morning under the News Round-Up about how individualism is disappearing. People are now just plonked together in their various categories, whether it be colour, sex, religion, you name it, and judged on that basis. I have to give myself a reminder from time to time too. So I suppose, as a family, we are non-conforming as far as neat and tidy categories and labels are concerned, and more ‘Heinz 57’, really.
Thankyou Mogwai. This article has certainly brought out some of the ‘shoutier’ elements of the DS readership!
“Don’t let an obsession with skin colour divert us from what matters.”
‘the ‘shoutier’ elements’
Ah there there, snowflake. Being patronising and dismissive of the concerns of others who may not have expressed themselves up to the standards you prefer is unimpressive.
And maybe they are ‘shoutier’ because you are not listening and seem to be deaf.
What really matters is the indigenous UK population have particular values which have developed over centuries in a judeo-christian tradition.
And it is not skin colour that is the issue. The issue is that we are facing a future under sharia law when the muslim population achieves a parliamentary majority.
Why is that important?
Many nationalities have settled in the UK without there being major issues arising. Issues arise when there is a direct clash of beliefs and values.
Ask yourself why the Serbs were so fired up about muslims that they did what they did to the muslims in Kosovo.
People are right to be frightened as more and more terror attacks occur and particularly attacks which are not being acknowledged as muslim extremists.
Your hero Mogwai has commented about that here and here and here.
If you have a problem with the ‘shoutier’ elements’ elements’ please allow me to help you.
Perhaps you should only comment about issues which are within the capabilities of your intellect and avoid those which are not.
Does that help?
No need to answer because I am no longer interested in what you think. You have demonstrated a lack of understanding which appears linked to your level of intellectual attainment.
Oh dear. What a pity. No ‘shoutier’ words needed to address your lack of understanding.
Do you realize the absurdity of, say, showing old Miss Marple movies as famous example of British popular culture in the 20th century to an all black audience in an all black Britain? Or a rememberance day service with an all black audience who have absolutely no ties to the people who actually fought in the so-called Great War?
This country has been cultivated, inhabited and shaped by white people for thousands of years and once they’re gone or even just reduced to an increasingly less significant minority, this part of its cultural heritage will be forever lost because the new population will no longer recognize them as “flesh of their own flesh.”
There was a TV documentary on Japan showing a typical Japanese restaurant with customers sitting crossed-leg, with lots of small dishes in front of them, families with children, some wearing traditional kimonos and, if you have visited Japan before, you immediately want to return there to enjoy the experience of being again in such an exotic country, where the people are so different, following very strict customs. But what if all those restaurant customers had been a typical mixed bunch of nationalities as you meet every day in London: would you still want to go to Japan?
I willingly admire attractive females of any race or colour! However, the amazing thing about Europe is that every single country has its own traditions, its own geography, its own type of people. But every country is now being flooded with poor foreigners looking simply for a better life than they had at home, who are not particularly interested in educating themselves in local customs or learning a foreign language to better assimilate themselves in whichever country they land up in.
It is rarely publicized how much an asylum-seeking individual is paid by a European government. I once heard that Germany pays several hundred euros per person per month. For someone coming from a poor area of Africa that is an absolute fortune! It is hardly surprising they endeavour to come to Europe. Large numbers end up in UK or France because most speak either of those languages. And they all wish to live comfortably, drive fast cars and have beautiful women.
The problem is that the eventual melanin mixing means all the individual countries ultimately end up looking the same, and variety is supposed to be the spice of life. It is also simply false that anyone can turn up anywhere and be guaranteed hard-earned tax money from their host country. There are reasons for strict border controls and also reasons for true asylum seekers to receive the support they need. There are forces behind this mass migration and they are not good.
The world fertility rate favours Nigerians as being the dominant race over the next 100 years, that’s a fact, Nigerian replacement rate is 6.4 children per couple, the highest in the world.., Like it or lump it!
It’s wrong to call this “fertility rate” unless it’s also part of Nigerian culture to throw hormon pills at young women by the hundred as early as possible (at expense of the state/ health system, obviously) to suppress their natural fertility and they’re getting 6.4 children per couple nevertheless.
Baron Kudenhove will be cracking one off in his coffin !!…
In the words of Douglas Murray ‘The Strange Death of Europe’.
It’s more appropriate to call this murder and not death. Or attempted murder at least.