Donald Trump is going to win the election, America’s top analyst Nate Silver has said. The Telegraph has more.
Nate Silver, the prominent statistician and writer, has said that his “gut” tells him the Republican candidate will be returned to the White House on November 5th.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” he wrote in the New York Times.
His prediction comes amid growing fears among Democrats that the race is slipping away from Kamala Harris. One strategist said the party should not be feeling even “slightly optimistic” about the Vice-President’s prospects.
Mr. Silver, 46, has forecast the outcome of most U.S. elections over the past decade and a half and is one of the only polling experts to have predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. …
The polling guru dismissed the notion that “shy” Trump voters, those that don’t vocally support him but do privately, will swing the election for the former Republican President.
Instead he said pollsters were failing to reach Trump voters, therefore underestimating the true scale of his support.
“The likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias. It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he said.
Democrat campaign strategists are now privately admitting that Ms Harris is losing ground to Trump in the polls, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan, as election day looms.
Worth reading in full.
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A smidgeon more Carbon Dioxide and you get “Less SHARKS”???????? This indicates how utterly preposterous climate change politics masquerading as “science” is. There is not a shred of evidence for any of the claims and the speculative models they are all based on have all been totally wrong till now. It is quite remarkable how even when the facts do NOT fit the theory that the global government in waiting at the UN/WEF can get away with this garbage, but when you have all the bought and paid for mainstream TV channels like BBC and SKY promoting it on a daily basis with nonsense that “All scientists agree” and “we must act now before it is too late”, etc etc what can you expect from a general public who mostly don’t have the time to investigate every issue because they are busy with work and family life, so they think Investigative journalists are doing that investigating for them? ———Far from it. These TV channels and Newspapers are acting as activists. They question NOTHING, and when you question NOTHING you are not indulging in science. You are simply promoting “Official Science”.
Yes
+ the latest Delingpod with Bart Sibrel talking about the moon landings possibly being fake has left me with a few extra thoughts ! I was non plussed either way but I’m going to dig into it ! Sibrel is a typical bossy type Yank who despite that makes a compelling case & as he says it would blow our whole perception of the world wide open , both pre & post Plandemic !
Extraordinary claims require extraordinary evidence. There is little evidence man didn’t land on the moon. There is plenty of evidence that CO2 is not causing or going to cause dangerous changes to climate, and very little evidence that it will. All there is are computer models full of assumptions and not surprisingly they have all been completely wrong so far. The facts don’t fit the theory, and when that is the case then your theory is WRONG.
The “extraordinary claim” is that men have visited the moon.
Which is why Armstrong disappeared, Grisson was burnt to death and the drunk Aldrin admitted they never went anywhere – on tv more than once.
Wrong. There is no evidence man landed on the moon.
Explain to me how they passed without protection through the Van Allen radiation belt and why they need to do the window trick to simulate being at 120000 miles in space when in fact they were 170 miles up – the same as Shephard. The lighting in the air force hanger is so bad and so obvious it is painful to watch.
The evidence of the moon fraud is overwhelming. Oh but wait. You saw it on your little TV. Just like the Rona.
You cherry picked some stuff that suits you there mate. You have no evidence man did not go to the moon, which isn’t really that difficult, and do you seriously think that the entire NASA administration were able to pull of that con trick and no one ever whistleblew. —-But this article is actually about climate incase you didn’t notice.
“$cience.”
Or ‘The $cience.’
According to a UN official climate change now causes earthquakes, and big oil is responsible:
https://www.euronews.com/2023/02/09/climate-change-is-triggering-more-earthquakes-big-oils-interests-are-a-factor
Is there no end to this daftness?
Tesla invented a device which fitted into his pocket which was able to stimulate a localised earth tremor. On his death all of his work was seized by the FBI…. Strange that Turkey experienced a major quake just as it cleared its IMF debts….
“Confessions of a Computer Modeler
“Any model, including those predicting climate doom, can be tweaked to yield a desired result. I should know.”
After three iterations [of remodeling] I finally blurted out, “What number are you looking for?”
He didn’t miss a beat: He told me that he needed to show $2 billion of benefits to get the program renewed.
I finally turned enough knobs to get the answer he wanted, and everyone was happy.
Was the EPA [Environmental Protection Agency] official asking me to lie? I have to give him the benefit of the doubt and assume he believed in the value of continuing the program. (Congress ended the grants in 1990.)”
Robert J. Caprara, “Confessions of a Computer Modeler,”
The Wall Street Journal, 9 July 2014
https://www.wsj.com/articles/confessions-of-a-computer-modeler-1404861351
I made computer models for venture capital transactions – e.g. management buyouts. I too could get pretty much any result you wanted 5 years out and make it seem reasonable.
In total I sold about 200 models, including one to the Bank of England !
I was actually waiting for that.
“If a fault is primed or ready to rupture, all that is needed is the pressure of a handshake to set if off […] Environmental changes associated with rapid and accelerating climate breakdown could easily do the job,” professor of geophysics and climate hazards at University College London Bill McGuire pointed out
How precisely environmental changes associated with rapid and accelerating climate breakdown could exert pressure on faults is anybody’s guess. But since the good professor already pointed this out in 2012, ie, eleven years ago, this rapid and accelarting climate breakdown can’t have been very rapid and can’t have been accelerating very quickly.
Like many people I just think surely reality is going to catch up with them?
Surely? ….Any minute now?
…but no, on they go like some demented lunatic Duracell bunny….!
https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/europes-spend-energy-crisis-nears-800-billion-euros-2023-02-13/
“European countries’ bill to shield households and companies from soaring energy costs has climbed to nearly 800 billion euros, researchers said on Monday, urging countries to be more targeted in their spending to tackle the energy crisis.
European Union countries have now earmarked or allocated 681 billion euros in energy crisis speding, while Britain allocated 103 billion euros and Norway 8.1 billon euros since September 2021, according to the analysis by think-tank Bruegel…”
A self-inflicted energy crisis…and wait until they see next years bills!
Thanks for that link. I hadn’t seen that one.
Oh the irony. All this spent to SHIELD us from soaring energy costs.
.
Journalists and politicians for that matter are essentially salespeople.
And generally not very smart, though good at rat cunning.
A journalist’s raison d’etre is to make money for their employer and the “if it bleeds, it leads” principle ensures catastrophic fear works.
Banks no doubt act purely on profit motive.
I assume they consider aligning with climate catastrophism will make them immune to the “boycott/ divest” shrieking of the lunatic climate nihilists.
They are sales people selling one particular product though. ——–Climate Change.—————– It starts out with the big Corporate Globalists like the New York Times and the rest all just repeat what they say. There is no investigative journalism anymore. Only activism, for every UN/WEF agenda that the liberal left want to hoodwink the general public with.
Having a debate on any subject is an old fashioned idea for the left. Why have a debate when you can just close your opponent down by labelling them a denier or a hater.
Climate Change is so obviously nonsense. The predictions never come true. I can’t stop thinking about the following.
“The Party told you to reject the evidence of your eyes and ears. It was their final, most essential command.”
― George Orwell, 1984
*****
Stand in the Park Make friends & keep sane
Sundays 10.30am to 11.30am
Elms Field
near Everyman Cinema & play area
Wokingham RG40 2FE
………
I can cite well over a dozen predictions by climate scientists, starting from 1970, stating indefatigably that the World would be in complete devastation before now.
I’d happily do so, but think you’d all be bored with it after the first few.
.
“could disappear”, non-fiction!!