Donald Trump is going to win the election, America’s top analyst Nate Silver has said. The Telegraph has more.
Nate Silver, the prominent statistician and writer, has said that his “gut” tells him the Republican candidate will be returned to the White House on November 5th.
“My gut says Donald Trump. And my guess is that it is true for many anxious Democrats,” he wrote in the New York Times.
His prediction comes amid growing fears among Democrats that the race is slipping away from Kamala Harris. One strategist said the party should not be feeling even “slightly optimistic” about the Vice-President’s prospects.
Mr. Silver, 46, has forecast the outcome of most U.S. elections over the past decade and a half and is one of the only polling experts to have predicted Trump’s victory in 2016. …
The polling guru dismissed the notion that “shy” Trump voters, those that don’t vocally support him but do privately, will swing the election for the former Republican President.
Instead he said pollsters were failing to reach Trump voters, therefore underestimating the true scale of his support.
“The likely problem is what pollsters call nonresponse bias. It’s not that Trump voters are lying to pollsters; it’s that in 2016 and 2020, pollsters weren’t reaching enough of them,” he said.
Democrat campaign strategists are now privately admitting that Ms Harris is losing ground to Trump in the polls, particularly in Wisconsin and Michigan, as election day looms.
Worth reading in full.
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