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Massive Electricity Price Rises Expected as National Grid Confirms Gas is the Only Back-Up for Intermittent Renewables

by Chris Morrison
3 October 2024 9:00 AM

The cat is finally out of the bag. It is planned that Britain by 2030 will produce 95% of its electricity from so-called green sources with 5% coming from gas. The pretence that electricity can be stored at scale to support unreliable renewables is nowhere to be seen in a recent Guardian interview with Fintan Slye, the head of National Energy System Operator (NESO). “There will continue to be a significant amount of power plants in reserve for the cold, dull, windless weeks of winter, but they will run for only limited periods,” observes Slye, whose operation was recently nationalised and is responsible for balancing supply and demand across the National Grid.

His remarks both clarify and strike fear at the same time. There is no back-up at scale for intermittent breezes and sunbeams and this has been obvious for some time, although the subject is rarely discussed in mainstream media and politics. Reserve gas generation is the only game in town if all life in Britain is not to grind to a halt during a windless, winter freeze. But keeping an entire fleet of gas turbines on standby will cost a huge amount of money, causing electricity prices to soar. The planned destruction of Britain’s own gas and oil industry will hardly help future sourcing and pricing, let alone national security.

Britain already has some of the highest electricity prices in the developed world and doubling, trebling or quadrupling charges will help destroy what is left of industry and condemn the population to drastically falling standards of living. As always with green punch-down lunacy, the poorest in society will be the hardest hit. Many people will be priced out of basic necessities they have always taken for granted such as light, heat, refrigeration, cooking facilities and electronic goods to access the online world.

One commonly peddled fantasy can be found in the Guardian article. “Conversely, there will be days when Great Britain generates far more electricity from renewable sources than it can use or store, so there are likely to be greater exports to neighbouring countries,” notes Slye. But of course weather does not stop at national boundaries. Nearby countries are likely to share similar windy conditions and with every operator trying to offload energy, the price offered would drop like a stone towards zero.

Already in the U.K., the National Grid is forced to pay renewable operators to stop producing energy. Last year, ‘constraint’ payments of nearly £1 billion were paid. It might be noted that this is not far short of the amount recently saved by scrapping the pensioners’ winter fuel allowance. But these sums are chicken feed compared with the overall subsidies paid to renewable energy operators, with over £12 billion added to the annual fuel bills of consumers. The more renewable generating capacity is added to the mix, the more the constraint payments and subsidies are likely to increase. With bunce like this, it is hardly surprising that Ecotricity boss Dale Vince, who runs onshore windmills, recently gifted £5 million to improve the election chances of the Labour party.

It is likely that the Mad Miliband is set on a 75-80% contribution to the grid from the breezes and the beams. Again we must be obliged to the Guardian for covering the subject in such detail and pointing out so vividly the further difficulties that are likely to arise when the wind drops during the 18 hours of winter darkness. Basically, the price goes up, in fact it soars up to 20 times higher. In March 2023, the Guardian reported that the grid was forced to buy gas-generated power in a windless cold period at £1,950 per megawatt hour (MWh). The usual price is around £100 MWh. One industry source  is reported to have said the price of sourcing power from gas peaking plants had “raised eyebrows”. Vitol is the largest oil trader in the world and knows something about securing the best market-determined rate. At this time it offered a price of £5,750 per MWh although the offer from its Rye House subsidiary was not accepted.

In an article published by the Manhattan Contrarian, Francis Menton discusses the “disastrous economics” of trying to power an electric grid with 100% intermittent renewables. The move inevitably brings about large increases in the actual price of electricity that must be paid by consumers. But he doesn’t just rely on theoretical calculations. “In those jurisdictions that have succeeded in getting generation from renewable up to as high as about 30% of their total electricity supply [Britain hit around 34% in 2023], the result has been an approximate tripling in the price of electricity for their consumers,” he states. Furthermore, he continues: “As the percentage of electricity coming from renewables increases, the consumer price increases accelerate.”

In his social media blockbuster Climate: The Movie, Martin Durkin introduces it as the story of how an eccentric environmental scare grew into a powerful global industry. “Climate change is an invented scare of self-interest and snobbery, cynically promoted by a parasitic, publicly-funded establishment hungry for power and money,” he charges. He could not have summed up better the drive to the command-and control Net Zero project.  Deliberately making energy more expensive by ‘de-carbonising’ the U.K. grid by 2030 is just one of the many economic and societal changes being planned by the new Labour hegemony.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Tags: Carbon dioxideEnergy CostsEnergy crisisFossil fuelsGasNational GridRenewable energyWind Power

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38 Comments
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CircusSpot
CircusSpot
10 months ago

Not sure they have thought this one through.
If energy costs rise, then the population will give up every other non essential item to pay for it. So the phones, internet, broadband, Netflix etc will be the first to go and with that the States means of propaganda and control.
It will leave millions of angry people completely dwarfing the number at the top.

14
0
varmint
varmint
10 months ago
Reply to  CircusSpot

They don’t need to “think it through” all they do is follow UN and WEF instructions and totally ignore the needs or wants of the businesses and individuals in the UK. The Political Class are poisoned with contempt for us. We are simply a nuisance to them and the only way we can regain freedom and prosperity is to GET RID OF THESE SCUMBAGS. —ALL OF THEM.

14
0
Q
Q
10 months ago
Reply to  varmint

[Useless Eaters] keeps springing to mind with articles as this.

4
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
10 months ago

With the benefit of:

1) Back of a small envelope
2) Maths O Level
3) Some basic stats easily available on the Internet
4) Functioning logic and honesty circuits

I am able to observe the following:

In the past year, wind and solar averaged 11GW. Installed wind + solar capacity is 47GW. So the average % of capacity used is 23% – presumably related to weather conditions. Average demand was 30GW. So in order to generate 100% from wind and solar we would need an installed capacity of 130GW. Of course as hydrocarbons that provide energy for vehicles and home heating are pushed out, the average demand will go up.

What I don’t have but would love to have are the stats on the lengths of the periods in which contribution from wind and solar drops and a backup is required – how do you calculate how much capacity you need for backup? Take the worst case or average case from last few years and hope that’s enough?

9
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Jaguar
Jaguar
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

130GW of wind and solar could generate an average of 30GW but of course this would mean that half the time the supply would be less than demand, and the other half of the time, supply would be greater than demand. We already have to “throw away” some of the wind and solar power that could be generated when the weather is right. We are already heavily dependent on imported power when the weather isn’t favourable. We are heading for major blackouts that will get more frequent until the grid collapses.

15
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transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
10 months ago
Reply to  Jaguar

Indeed, or we need backup to be more or less 100% of peak demand, which I think it is with gas & nuclear. Intermittent generation without viable mass storage is a monumentally stupid & evil idea. Even with mass storage, it’s pretty stupid as the storage will cost you a fortune – nature has taken care of stored energy for us…

8
0
Tyrbiter
Tyrbiter
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

There is no demonstrable storage of energy at the scale required, batteries don’t cut it and other methods are not yet proven even in pilot plants.

Peak to average wind speed is about a factor of 4, so your 23% figure is accurate.

Energy gradient is the killer, the materials cost per MWh for unreliable generation is up to 100x that for gas, coal and nuclear. A wind turbine doesn’t generate enough energy in its lifetime to manufacture itself let alone anything else.

Unless these net zero maniacs are left dead in the water then we are all going to be dead. I think we need to get to them first.

11
0
soundofreason
soundofreason
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

…hope that’s enough…

That sounds like a plan!

3
0
James Newing
James Newing
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Correct, the whole thing is ludicrous…all while China build new coal fired and benefit from the relative cheap and reliable energy to power their economy and probable further domination of the worlds economy – I suspect the CCP are behind it all and our political class are either complicit or just brainwashed by the years of ‘global warming/climate emergency’ propaganda.

4
0
The Real Engineer
The Real Engineer
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

Gas generation is often 90% of demand, and has very rarely fallen below 50%. It is very important to remember that the Millibrain along with the WEF sponsored Uni-party are entirely responsible for this disaster which will at some stage, probably bankrupt the UK and cause blackouts. The ONLY politician to comment on this is Nigel Farage, and Reform policy is to junk the lot. The “contracts for difference” are designed to print money for renewables and the subsidy levels (which if wind and solar were cheap would be unnecessary) are designed to break all consumers. The constant mantra, “Use less energy” are also ridiculous, why are China and India succeeding? It is because they have virtually unlimited energy available for business and the population. And it is all from Coal, so we are wasting our time anyway. We have billions of tons of our own coal, which could easily be mined at reasonable cost.

4
0
transmissionofflame
transmissionofflame
10 months ago
Reply to  The Real Engineer

I generally agree though gas averaged 26% over past year and I have rarely seen it above 60 as biomass, various imports and nuclear make up the rest.

1
0
Less government
Less government
10 months ago
Reply to  transmissionofflame

We’re at war. The enemy is quite clearly our Government, current and previous.
Everything imaginable is being done to destroy every aspect of our livelihoods, society and economy, to the point where energy, water and food shortages will cause a breakdown of law and order and anarchy.
Exactly what the World Economic Forum wants to transition us, under marshal law, to One World Government.

1
0
varmint
varmint
10 months ago

“We are going to have to get used to using electricity as and when it is available” Steve Holiday (Head of the National Grid) about 12 years ago. ——Shall I repeat that? “WE ARE GOING TO HAVE TO GET USED TO USING ELECTRICITY AS AND WHEN IT IS AVAILABLE”——Welcome to the Mad Max Energy Policies of the Eco Fundamentalist dimwits who have been running this country now since we got the absurd Climate Change Act in 2008. —-Both Tory and Labour are all in on the act. The baton has now been handed over to the UN parasites in the Labour Party and Miliband is about to run with it for at least the next 5 years. We already now have the highest electricity prices in the WORLD, and that absurdity is only going to get more and absurd.

17
0
Gezza England
Gezza England
10 months ago
Reply to  varmint

It is not just him – the German ecofascist nutjob Habeck has proposed the same thing to German industry to cover for his stupid decision to close 3 operating nuclear plants and shun another 6 that could operate. Departing German industry won’t have to turn out the lights as they leave given that likely won’t be on in the first place.

5
0
RTSC
RTSC
10 months ago

The original name for what became the EU was The Coal and Steel Union. These products, together with food, were essential if a country wanted to go to war.

Swap “coal” for “energy.”

We are already dependant on food imports and it is being made even more essential by the war on British farmers.

We are now dependent on imported energy ….. wood chips and LPG from America and electricity from our “friends” in the continent via the inter-connectors.

And now we are dependent on imported steel. Funnily enough our “friends” in the EU still produce steel …. most notably Germany, Italy, France, Spain and Poland.

Now why would the Globalists/British Establishment want us entirely dependent on our “friends” in the EU?

Because they want us in the EU Defence Pact and they know that only by making us completely incapable of defending ourselves will they achieve it.

11
0
Jack the dog
Jack the dog
10 months ago

There are no two ways about it – this is a deliberate move to destroy the UK economy and by extension the UK.

For what reasons one can only guess at.

But it seems likely that Ralph Milliband, the asylum seeker, was also a communist sleeper whose plan is now reaching fruition.

And I’m not joking.

Whether Free Gear two tier is smart enough to realise what’s going on god only knows.

13
0
debra
debra
10 months ago
Reply to  Jack the dog

I suspect Free Gear knows exactly what’s going on and is in full support!

2
0
The Real Engineer
The Real Engineer
10 months ago
Reply to  debra

He probably already has a Russian and a Chinese passport!

0
0
James Newing
James Newing
10 months ago
Reply to  Jack the dog

Free gear is also in on it (WEF)…the CCP may be behind it all from what I can tell…using a few ‘useful idiots’ and easily bought politicians, along the way.

2
0
cchambers
cchambers
10 months ago

Also unlikely to maintain grid frequency stability with 90% renewables due to lack of rotating inertia from gas and nuclear generators. This will force taking generators offline and blackouts.

4
0
Tonka Rigger
Tonka Rigger
10 months ago
Reply to  cchambers

Most people do not have a clue about rotating inertial mass and grid frequency.

4
0
Gezza England
Gezza England
10 months ago
Reply to  Tonka Rigger

Nor how narrow the frequency window is.

6
0
Tonka Rigger
Tonka Rigger
10 months ago
Reply to  Gezza England

Exactly, 49ish – 51ish Hz as a general rule of thumb. Protected machines tend to reject loads at frequencies below 49 Hz. The lack of the “flywheel” effect provided by large, heavy machines means that if a large-ish grid supply drops off or grid demand quickly increases for some reason, the resulting frequency drop will be much quicker and harder.

For the uninitiated, a generator becomes physically harder to rotate as the load on it increases due to increased magnetic reluctance (think how a small petrol genny labours when a kettle connected to it is swiched on). Small machines (like WTGs) slow down much quicker, and with a “harder-edged” grid frequency drop as a result – which can cause a domino effect.

Last edited 10 months ago by Tonka Rigger
5
0
The Real Engineer
The Real Engineer
10 months ago
Reply to  Tonka Rigger

True but it is worse than that, if the frequency drops out of the band allowed, big chunks of the Grid immediately disconnect to protect the rest, and the band is narrower than Tonka thinks. Blackouts will come, probably this winter if it is cold. We only need a couple of gas failures and it will happen immediately! We are very, very close to the edge now.

2
0
Less government
Less government
10 months ago
Reply to  The Real Engineer

The WEF will be rubbing its hands with glee. The useless eaters are going to freeze this winter.

1
0
RichardTechnik
RichardTechnik
10 months ago
Reply to  Tonka Rigger

The speed of rotation determines the frequency of the AC generated – normally 3000 rev/min for 50Hz AC. The whole UK network has to be precisely in sychronism to be balanced. Any increase in load (surge) has to be balanced by an instantaneous increase in steam flow to keep the frequency constant. The rotating mass of each turbine and rotor is multiple tonnes and acts as a flywheel which stores energy. Nuclear powered generators have similar rotating energy storage to coal or oil fired power stations with the generators powered by steam turbines themselves heated by furnaces or reactor heat interchangers.

Wind turbines on the other hand might be 30 or more tonnes but electrically they generate at around 1000V DC. Multiple turbines in a windfarm are coupled to inverters which convert to AC. There is no direct relationship between the stored rotating energy in the turbine and frequency stability. Same with Solar arrays. A massive problem with more than a few % wind turbines or arrays in the National mix. Various technical solutions have been put forward but one cannot beat physics. The only solution is to have an equivalent amount of capacity actually running gas turbine generators at full synchronous speed that burn significant amounts of fuel generate nothing until the surge/dip occurs.

No engineer would propose a grid of more than 12-14% generation from these sources and no economist who understads these basics woudl either…..unless they wished to deliberately create scarcity.

Any politician that pretends otherwise is trying to impose a completely differenet agenda or is a complete charlatan.

7
0
Tonka Rigger
Tonka Rigger
10 months ago
Reply to  RichardTechnik

Yes, rotational speed for 50Hz depending on number of pole pairs, of course.

Also, commercial power generation is almost exclusively AC, as DC machines require a commutator and brushes. The latter are often used as excitation machines for large alternators however.

I have heard rumours of flywheel farms being planned for use as “frequency compensators” in order to take some of the sting out of frequency drops, but it must be considered that these are a continuous (although decreasing with rotational speed) draw on the grid, with massive current draw as they spin up. Still better than batteries, but pumped storage HE is most flexible, albeit with massive initial capital costs and red tape.

Last edited 10 months ago by Tonka Rigger
3
0
soundofreason
soundofreason
10 months ago
Reply to  Tonka Rigger

Prayer wheels.

2
0
Tonka Rigger
Tonka Rigger
10 months ago

But bATteRiEs wiLl mAKe uP ThE diFfEReNcE…

1
0
JeremyP99
JeremyP99
10 months ago

Ho hum…

Energy
1
0
Gezza England
Gezza England
10 months ago

What is planned and what can be delivered are vastly different. That no new offshore wind other than anything already booked in can be connected to the grid until 2030 due to the lack of cable laying ships means that the plan has already failed. Working back from there are the problems of lack of construction capacity, that plans do not already exist and permissions are not in place, and of course where is the money coming from to pay for it all. Building windmills onshore may not have the ship problem but has the resources issues plus a likely large amount of public opposition given Labour’s tiny support.

So with no additional unreliables available the problem is the ageing nuclear and gas plants due to go from 2028. Can their life be extended once people with functioning brains and double digit IQs have seen the problem and been put in charge? We currently don’t know as nobody is checking so perhaps 4 of our 5 Reform MPs could start pursuing this through asking parliamentary questions that skewer the government until it answers the questions properly. As this takes time and persistence one would not expect Farage to partake in this.

6
0
The Real Engineer
The Real Engineer
10 months ago
Reply to  Gezza England

He already is partaking in it, see yesterday’s YT. The whole idea actually failed about 10 years ago, when various nuclear plans failed to happen, and Hinckley C is an ongoing disaster area. Any construction is 10 years away for anything to be built.

2
0
Purpleone
Purpleone
10 months ago
Reply to  The Real Engineer

Which is why we should have started 25 years or more ago!

0
0
Arum
Arum
10 months ago

It’s obvious that this has no chance of succeeding within the proposed timescale, possibly ever, and even ‘success’ would be crowned by elderly people dying of cold and the complete evisceration of what is left of British industry. It is hard to believe that all involved are stupid, but the alternatives seem to be either (a) they are evil, or (b) they are foreign agents.

9
0
Q
Q
10 months ago

Information~Intentions like this only increases the heat under the synthetic [World Guvunmunt] pressure cooker.
Every valve has a limit.

2
0
Simon MacPhisto
Simon MacPhisto
10 months ago

The emperor has no clothes but only a few of us can see this. It’s Covid all over again.

4
0
The Real Engineer
The Real Engineer
10 months ago
Reply to  Simon MacPhisto

Yes the £500 Billion wasted on the Covid nonsense would have built 20 large coal plants, enough to keep us going without any wind! In other words at least 50 GW capacity.

2
0
Cotfordtags
Cotfordtags
10 months ago

When did socialism abandon the working man, determined to destroy British industry of all types and jobs of all types and became the party of effete university graduates who are willing to buy unicorn shit from every snake oil salesman who seem to be able to con these idiots out of billions of the people’s money and then bung them a tiny bit back in gratitude for their willingness to be fooled.

1
0

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