A Perspective on the Scale of the October 7th Massacre

As we approach the anniversary of the October 7th pogrom Hamas still holds 100 or so hostages. It’s believed a significant number of those remaining hostages have died in captivity to add to the 1,300 or so previously killed by Hamas on October 7th or in the tunnels under Gaza since then.

I’m afraid I’m amongst those who can’t bring themselves to watch Yariv Mozer’s documentary Surviving October 7th: We Will Dance Again (available on BBC iPlayer). Is this cowardice? I’m not sure. I find the images my imagination conjures up based on the brief clips I have seen distressing enough.

I leave the telling of the story of that day to brave documentary makers such as Mozer and those journalists who work hard to keep this story alive – a task made more challenging in the face of the ever-growing narrative that increasingly paints the Palestinians as the victims. Iran, Hamas and those Palestinians who came out on the streets of Gaza to celebrate the massacre knew where their actions would lead. The slaughter that has followed is a direct consequence of October 7th.

However, if I can’t illuminate the horror of October 7th, perhaps I can at least add some perspective that may help readers to put the massacre in context.

Euromomo is the international organisation that records death rates across most European countries plus a few outliers, such as Israel. One consequence of monitoring death rates is that any ‘excess deaths’ become visible. Euromomo was one of the places that, during Covid you could still see a fairly dispassionate picture illustrating that Covid barely nudged the dial for deaths amongst the young.

Euromomo provides analysis of the data by various age cohorts. The 15-44 year-old cohort covers about 150 million people. Of those 150 million, about 2% live in Israel.

During Covid, when a supposedly ‘once in a century’ virus was running rampant across Europe, on only five occasions did excess deaths among those 150 million 15-44 year-olds even marginally exceed 200. Incidentally, all five of these occurrences happened in late 2021 and in 2022, after the completion of the vaccine rollout.

However, as you can see from Figure 1, excess deaths recorded in just one week eclipses excess deaths in any other single week across the past five years.

Of course, those deaths occurred on October 7th 2023. They weren’t spread across the 150 million 15-44 year-olds across most of Europe. Rather, they occurred in one small, out-of-the-way place. That small corner in the south west of Israel where it borders Gaza.

That’s really all there is to say.

Perspective is a powerful tool, but as a postscript can I just add a personal note about the ‘progressives’, those out on the streets in Western capitals and universities chanting “from the river to the sea”. Those who were first out on the streets on October 8th supporting Hamas and the Palestinians. Those who were out on the streets condemning Israel for two weeks before Israel retaliated. Invariably, these ‘progressives’ wear face masks on their protests, even today. I don’t know why they wear face masks – maybe it’s just to evade recognition – but I suspect it’s because it allows them to claim ‘victim’ status. They seem to be saying: “I too have lived through harrowing times.” “I too am a victim.” “I too understand what it is to face death.” Possibly, they also think their mask shows compassion. They want you, providing you’re not a Jew, to think that they care about your safety, that they’re doing their bit to stop you being infected by them. Confected ‘victimhood’ and confected ‘compassion’, carefully designed to mask their very real antisemitism.

The sheer scale and barbarity of the attacks must be remembered. If it ever begins to fade from my consciousness that will be the time for me to watch Surviving October 7th: We Will Dance Again. Until that time my imagination continues to replay those images that still trouble my dreams.

Stop Press: Israel’s invasion of Lebanon is underway. You can read rolling news blogs about this in the Telegraph, the Times and the Mail.