In a piece published last October, the left-wing journalist Aaron Bastani argued that conservatives who oppose mass immigration into Europe should also oppose Western military interventions in the Middle East. After all, Bastani reasoned, such military interventions lead to the displacement of millions of people – some of whom end up coming to Europe.
The typical conservative response to this argument is to point out that the vast majority of people coming to Europe are not in fact genuine refugees, but rather economic migrants. Indeed, many are from countries like Turkey, Morocco and Algeria where there have not been any Western military interventions in recent decades.
However, the debate has proceeded without much recourse to actual data. In this article, I attempt to redress that. Specifically, I investigate whether Western military interventions in the Middle East have contributed to mass immigration into Europe.
To do so, I analysed the UN’s International Migrant Stock database. This database gives, for each country in the world (and for several different time points), an estimate of the number of people from that country who are living in every other country around the world. One weakness is that it does not count second generation immigrants. However, this isn’t too much of an issue in the present context, since we are interested in recent immigration.
Using the database, I calculated for each of 26 Muslim countries, the number of people from that country living in the EU, Britain, Norway or Switzerland. The 26 Muslim countries are all located in the MENA region, which controls (to some extent) for one major factor affecting migration, namely distance. I did not include Muslim countries like Bangladesh, Malaysia or Indonesia in the analysis, since they are so much further away from Europe. In any case, the 26 countries are: Afghanistan, Algeria, Azerbaijan, Bahrain, Djibouti, Egypt, Iran, Iraq, Jordan, Kuwait, Lebanon, Libya, Mauritania, Morocco, Oman, Pakistan, Palestine, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Somalia, Sudan, Syria, Tunisia, Turkey, UAE and Yemen.
I first calculated the migrant stock from each country for the year 2019 (the latest available). However, simply comparing migrant stocks as of 2019 isn’t a good way to test whether military interventions have contributed to mass immigration. After all, migration flows are subject to a large degree of path dependency. Once a migrant community from a particular country becomes established somewhere, more migrants from that country tend to follow. Hence we need to control for the size of the migrant stock before the interventions took place. I therefore calculated the migrant stock from each country in two earlier years: 1990, which marks the end of the Cold War, and 2000, which marks the beginning of the ‘War on Terror’. (Note that UN figures are available for 2000 but not 2001.)
However, simply looking at change in the migrant stock isn’t a good way to answer the question either. After all, some of the Muslim countries are much larger than others: Pakistan has 241 million people, whereas Brunei has only 0.5 million. Hence we also need to control for population size. I therefore divided the migrant stock from each country in each year by that country’s total population in the relevant year.
Next I identified eight countries where there have been major Western or Western-backed military interventions since 1990: Afghanistan, Iraq, Lebanon, Libya, Palestine, Somalia, Syria and Yemen. Afghanistan had the War in Afghanistan, which began in 2001. Iraq had the Gulf War in 1991 and then the Iraq War in 2003. Lebanon had the 2006 war with Israel. Libya had the NATO intervention in 2011. Palestine has the ongoing conflict with Israel. Somalia had the US intervention in 1992–95 (which was the basis for the film Black Hawk Down). Syria had the US support for rebels that began in 2011. Yemen had the US intervention that began in 2002.
Now let’s look at some results. The chart below shows the relationship between the log of population-adjusted migrant stock in 2019 and the same variable in 1990. (Both variables were logged to reduce skewness.) The countries with Western military interventions are shown in red.
There is a strong positive relationship, indicating that between-country differences in the population-adjusted migrant stock are largely stable over time. Yet what’s also true is that most of the red countries are above the line, while most of the blue countries are below the line. This indicates that countries with Western military interventions have seen larger increases in population-adjusted migrant stocks than those without interventions. (The difference is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.006.) Indeed, when we rank the 26 countries by the residual (the vertical distance between the point and the line), six of the top seven are countries with Western military interventions.
The chart below shows the same relationship when using 2000 as the baseline instead of 1990. It looks much the same as the first chart: the red countries are concentrated at or above the line, while the blue countries are concentrated below the line. Again, the difference is statistically significant with a p-value of 0.003. When we rank countries by the residual, all five of the top five are countries with Western military interventions.
(A simpler way to analyse the data is to subtract the population-adjusted migrant stock in the baseline year from the equivalent value in 2019, and then compare the two groups of countries. This method yielded similar results.)
Overall, these results support Bastani’s claim that Western military interventions in Muslim countries contribute to mass immigration. However, there are some important caveats. First, there are often many ways to analyse the data. I chose to analyse a limited sample of similar countries and did not control for factors aside from those mentioned. An alternative analysis might yield different results.
Second, in several cases it is plausible that there would still have been large-scale immigration from the relevant country in the absence of Western military intervention. For example, the civil war in Somalia during the 1990s might have produced just as many displaced people if the US had not intervened at all. Part of the difference between the two groups may be due to conflict in general, rather than Western military intervention specifically.
On the other hand, only counting migrants from MENA countries understates the impact of Western military interventions on mass immigration. In particular, the NATO bombing campaign in Libya played a major role in the defeat and eventual death of leader Muammar Gaddafi. This, in turn, led to a substantial rise in the number of Sub-Saharan migrants attempting to reach Europe through Libya. (Gaddafi had previously kept a lid on such migration in exchange for money.)
Third, even if Western military interventions do contribute to mass immigration, it remains true that most MENA migrants come from countries where there have not been such interventions in recent decades. As of 2019, only 22% of the MENA migrant stock in Europe is accounted for by migrants from countries with interventions; the three biggest groups are Algerians, Turks and Moroccans.
Given the limitations of my analysis, this article should not be taken as the final word on the subject. Nonetheless, the results are interesting.
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Only Whites are targeted. Blacks, Muzzies, non Whites – the 5 tier justice system in action (level 5 is for the elites where they are rarely if ever convicted of their true crimes). If these fascists want to seed and breed a civil war they are going about it the right way. As it stands a complete civil implosion in the UK is almost inevitable and the recent riots are just a small rehearsal for what awaits. To be blamed only on Whites of course, since all White males are Hitlers of course.
The genesis lies in our non-democracy, open borders and cultural erasure. You have to be blind and stupid not to see that the globalists have targeted the English for annihilation. And, as a bonus in that process, you can watch your wife and daughters be raped or sliced up. If you object, you are a Nazi. Maybe we can all go and fight with the Nazi brigades in the Uketopia, apparently those Nazis are the good Nazis.
…the globalists have targeted the English for annihilation”.
Uncle Sam has long had a race issue and they are going to make sure all its white allies have one too.
Keir Stalin has filled the prisons with memers, now rapists, stabbers and drug dealers will get the soft touch.
In all tyranny’s you Free the Criminals because they are no threat to you, and you then imprison all your political opponents because they are.
So prison is just a reflection of the real world then? —-As tat old song said “There may be trouble ahead”. What a pitiful shithole we are becoming and the problem is we keep voting for the same jumble of parasites.
I would argue that the problem is we keep voting. It’s the entire system that needs replacing… by any means necessary.
I’ve said many times before that we do have to keep voting but that we should spoil our ballot papers, which is what I did at the last GE. Everyone here should read MiriAF (miriaf.co.uk).
You can do both.
You can spoil your ballot paper and cast a valid vote.
You can write anything you like on the ballot paper as long as you express a clear preference for one of the candidates.
The advantage is that when the votes are counted all the candidates will see what you have written.
At the count of the votes all spoiled ballot papers are collected and considered one-by-one for the candidates to agree or dispute whether a clear preference for a single candidate has been expressed.
Provided you make sure the candidate you want to vote for is clearly indicated as your preference then your vote will count.
A smiley face in the box for the preferred candidate will work despite for example writing ‘F Off’ in all the other boxes.
Those with greater literary or artistic skills might be inspired to greater heights.
And the best of all worlds is to be admitted to the count yourself.
Provided you note the unique identifying code of the ballot box into which you have posted your ballot paper, you will be able to see which team of counters at the count deal with the ballots in that box.
This means you can get to watch as your own ballot is inspected by all the candidates and their respective entourages.
What is there not to like?
Of course if we all did this then counts and elections would take weeks not hours.
It is a form of lawful civil disobedience which can be exercised at any election including the Council elections next May.
I wrote something like ‘none of the above who have betrayed God and democracy’. I didn’t know about still being able to vote for one but there was no single candidate I could support. The Heritage Party didn’t have a candidate in our area and I believe that Reform is no better than the other parties. Thank you for the info.
Vote for a candidate who has no chance of winning or get together with people locally and field your own candidate.
There is a risk of a loss of deposit but that can be offset by making sure the minimum number of votes are cast for your candidate.
Or if money is no object then lost deposits are not a problem.
The golden rule should be to never ever vote for an establishment party as that is the source of all political corruption in this country. Voting for a Right wing challenger party or an independent is perfectly sensible. In the absence of the latter then spoiling your party would be my choice.
That is what I did. I doubt that I will ever vote for an establishment party again (uniparty), amongst which I am afraid I count Reform. I would only consider the Heritage party or an independent.
Trouble is any new parasites might turn out the same.
And in five years time people will have forgotten the Tories did exactly the opposite of what their manifestos claimed and also trashed the country and racked up massive debt so there is no money to invest to get us out of the shit.
But the public can be reminded and probably need to be reminded at every opportunity over the next five years.
Reform UK is dependent upon Nigel Farage at the helm. Without him I doubt the party would have achieved 4 million votes.
To win in 5 years time they need a most convincing manifesto with sound policies, a political philosophy which all can understand and leaders with strong personalities and speaking skills to appeal to the public.
Priti Patel doubling down on the unprecedented legal and illegal immigration in recent years contrary to manifesto claims has damaged her leadership prospects and her party. But then again I don’t trust someone who has never learned to pronounce words ending ‘ing’ and say ‘in’ instead – just like Sadiq Khan does. He can’t do pronounce them properly either.
They both pretend to be able to speak Received Pronunciation but can’t.
Neither sound smart enough to lead London or the country. Khan has proven how crooked he is over ULEZ [and probably a lot more too] just as Starmer is proving as Prime Minister.
Khan proved he cannot be trusted. Starmer is making a good job of it as well. And Patel’s doubling down has proven she can’t be trusted either.
So folks, start joining political parties. It does not matter which one or ones. Join them all if you can and start objecting to the crap they have all being doing and if you get the chance vote out the morons in the hope some others who are more convincing might also be honest enough to do what the say they will.
There is obviously problems as J’accuse relates, the prisons are overcrowded and the ridiculous sentences being handed out for memes or sticker makers and the ‘rioters’, when more serious crimes get a slap on the wrist is indefensible, but to throw in the trite statement:
“public will be screaming for the Forces to deployed thanks to the GB News rabble rousers.”
is ridiculous and highlights their socialist leanings. If we had a sensible judicial system, not one riven with politics as is every aspect of life today, it might be that old saw ‘crime doesn’t pay’ may work but not now.
Any sensible person, not a blinkered sheep who only watched or read the sanctioned news, knows that things have gone from bad to worse, I consider that GB News is doing its best (with considerable opposition) to bring news that isn’t officially sanctioned despite Ofcom.
True but GBN could do better on other issues that are of grave concern.
The situation sounds horrific, I had no idea. Obviously more and better prisons are needed, not so that more people can be locked up for spurious ‘crimes’, but so that overcrowding is addressed. However this almost collapse of part of a countries infrastructure, is just part of a bigger picture. The lack of investment in utilities (our now filthy sewage laden seas and rivers, no new reservoirs for example), the crumbling roads, the ageing national grid/potential lack of power – and no, I don’t think millions spent on solar panels is a sensible investment, just a subsidy money making exercise. It goes on and on. Meanwhile billions can be found for an endless benefits bill, among other things, but not for the really important things that make us function as a country. Talk about fiddling while Rome burns.
They are trying to extend the prison at Gartree near Market Harborough, which is in an isolated spot. It has so far been blocked at every stage of the planning application.
I think the main reason for the District Council and MP objecting is more cosmetic to keep their seats than that they are genuinely against it.
As we know this is often done so it gets called in. When passed on appeal they can then pass the buck.
It is the last stages of the Roman Empire. But will the Globalists be ‘sacked’.
The failings you refer to are deliberate. The destruction of this country is the real manifesto of the so-called Labour Party – as ordered by the Davos Deviants, or the Combine as John Waters refers to them in this brilliant substack:
https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/why-ireland-matters-to-the-tyrants
Thanks HP, a fascinating article.
Or just deport all the foreign and dual-national criminals back to their ancestral homeland to serve out their sentences there, with no lawyers or judges involved at any stage, and any country refusing to take their own criminals back will have all foreign aid cut, immediately and permanently.
That will free up a considerable chunk of prison spaces for real British criminals, and all the protesters who did not harm anyone must be released, with fines and community service for any criminal damage, and heaviest fines and longest community service for those who physically attacked or spat on police officers.
The crumbling infrastructure you rightly lament is the deliberate result of “The Cloward-Piven Strategy” to destroy the West: mass uncontrolled immigration to overwhelm all infrastructure until it collapses, so the country can be rebuilt in the Communists’ image. Similar to the evil Fabian Society’s logo of themselves smashing the globe with sledgehammers, in order to rebuild it as they choose.
Stopped reading at ‘GB News rabble rousers.’ No balance without the mention of craven, supine MSM, with the BBC at the helm.
I’m also not sure why the author felt the need to write ”flabby 40 four year-olds”, but maybe they’re one of them that pop up in the comments sections so they may come and enlighten us..
I got the notion that this piece was written from the arm chair and not from any experience of the coal face. I am reminded of the phrase that is is easy to criticise a person when you haven’t walked a day in their boots. All the problems of today, stem from the policies and agendas of past Governments and NGO’s in an attempt to create a utopia, they have created the opposite. As for the Flabby 44 year olds, it echoes the trait of the classification, the putting into boxes, of those who they deem not in their circles of purported virtuous self enlightenment. Its one to add to the list, of Far right thugs, Nazis etc.
As a German proverb goes: Many people mistakenly believe they’re thinking when they’re really just rearranging their prejudices. This is a stereotypical trope from the US internet (aka “a meme”, actual meaning of the word is not “some silly picture people share on the internet” but a roving idea which has taken up a life on its own and propagates freely on the internet).
At risk of sounding seriously naive, why in the world are prisoners allowed to access the internet anyway? At least in the category A prisons. But which prisons are these highly dangerous meme-posters and ‘keyboard terrorists’ being sent anyway? Surely not to share cells with murderers doing ‘life’ in Wakefield or Frankland prison?? It’s bad enough to get sent down but to be sent to one of these prisons could quite easily be a death sentence to some of these people, especially as the guards are unable to protect prisoners adequately anyway. Here’s a handy definition of the differences in prison categories but if anyone knows where these people are being sent to please share;
”Category A
These are high security prisons. They house male prisoners who, if they were to escape, pose the most threat to the public, the police or national security.
Category B
These prisons are either local or training prisons.
Local prisons house prisoners that are taken directly from court in the local area (sentenced or on remand), and training prisons hold long-term and high-security prisoners.
Category C
These prisons are training and resettlement prisons; most prisoners are located in a category C. They provide prisoners with the opportunity to develop their own skills so they can find work and resettle back into the community on release.
Category D – open prisons
These prisons have minimal security and allow eligible prisoners to spend most of their day away from the prison on licence to carry out work, education or for other resettlement purposes. Open prisons only house prisoners that have been risk-assessed and deemed suitable for open conditions.”
https://prisonjobs.blog.gov.uk/your-a-d-guide-on-prison-categories/
Your comment and link made me think and check out the process.
“Prison staff assess prisoners when they’re first sentenced and also throughout their time in prison, to identify whether or not they’re still in the right prison category. If the prisoners’ risks are assessed as sufficiently raised or lowered, prison staff can take action to transfer them to the more appropriate security prison.
If a prisoners’ sentence is:
https://prisonguide.co.uk/who-decides-what-prison-you-go-to/
“In summary, who decides what prison you go to in the UK is a multifaceted process involving the courts, HM Prison and Probation Service, and parole boards. This process ensures that offenders are placed in facilities that match their security needs and support their rehabilitation. By considering various factors, including crime severity, offender background, and rehabilitation needs, the system strives to maintain public safety and aid offender reintegration.”
This seems a very unwieldy and long winded process given the state of the Civil Service and could result in some of the ‘political prisoners’ being in the wrong place for some time!
If the prison system is as badly run and as overcrowded as the article makes out I fear that the new political prisoners will literally be bunged anywhere.
I do not agree that most should be getting custodial sentences.
However, if our politically motivated judges are going to convict, why not just tag and curfew? Seems more appropriate.
“why not just tag and curfew? Seems more appropriate.”
There are no headlines in “tag and curfew.” The point about the prison sentences being handed down by the corrupt judiciary is that it allows Kneel to play the full tyrant / dictator role. The message will always be…
‘I’m in feckin charge and don’t you plebs forget it.’
The whole court business and outrageous sentencing is intended to cause outrage for some of us, simmering dissent for some and glee amongst the lefty woketards who don’t realise that they are in fact clamouring for their own inevitable incarceration.
Pretty much everything happening in this country nowadays should be viewed as Stage Managed.
“wishes to inject hundreds of flabby 40 four year-olds who shared dodgy memes from Britain First’s Facebook page”
I think you will find they will be of various ages.
” beginning to form similar mutual protection organisations within prisons”
They would have to!
I firmly believe Keir Stalin would create Gulags for the “Faaah Rite” white working class if he thought he could get away with it.
https://johnwaters.substack.com/p/why-ireland-matters-to-the-tyrants
Mogwai posted this substack article yesterday. This deals with the issues you have mentioned and fleshes out much of what I have been posting about on here for three plus years. I cannot recommend it highly enough.
The above comment was a response to Ferd lll at the top of the page. No idea why it is not flagged as such.
Hey, hux. You give me too much credit. ”It wasn’t me” Shaggy.
Well done to J’accuse for highlighting the terrible danger that awaits the protesters unjustly imprisoned, of which the lawyers, judges and fanatical Marxist politicians are fully aware.
I do take objection to his raising the spectre of “communities of explicit racists forming in parts of England outside of prisons”. It is disappointing to see him trot out the same old jaded “White Racists” scarecrow, while never talking about the explicit, murderous anti-white racism openly promoted by other ethnic groups and Communists, such as the Stand Up to Racism = Socialist Workers Party protesters carrying signs saying “Let the Pigs Eat the Gammons” (encouraging the mass murder of white people and feeding them to pigs), or that Marxist Ethnic African who urged the crowd to Mass Murder British Patriots by “slitting their throats and getting rid of them”. The female Sikh chosen as Chief Crown Prosecutor refused to charge him with “Encouraging Mass Murder”, but only with the vague lesser charge of “encouraging violent disorder”.
Early Dawn sounds like some sort of heretical Rosicrucian sect. Is that the utopian way to rehabilitation?
I was disappointed that I paid a one-off £5 to read this article which is saying nothing new. Also, BTW, does the author personally know anyone actually in a UK prison at the moment (instead of quoting alarmist stuff by other people)? I do: a 23-year-old who has been in prisons such as Wandsworth for the last three years or so. As far as I am aware, the problems cited in this article are not necessarily accurate reflections of a prison like Wandsworth – yet. That doesn’t mean that they won’t become a problem but it’s better not to exaggerate things. As far as I can see, the problems in prisons (here in the south of England at least) seem to be more that young men are infantilised, punished for petty misdemeanours (that’s when they tend to be locked up for 23 hours and on their own), instead of being equipped to grow up and become useful citizens of the real world when they come out. The young man I know has even been able to access some education, though it’s a fairly hit and miss affair. I agree, however, that sending these supposed ‘far right’ rioters to prison is not going to help with overcrowding, which is nothing new and has been a problem for some time. Apart from the riots being fake (no deaths, riots have not even taken place where we have been told they are happening or about to happen), choreographed and manipulated, this whole process is designed for a purpose – to viciously clamp down on free speech (even thought). I always said that as soon as KS and Labour got in (and felt safe, having won the election), they would move at ‘warp’ speed with their agenda. And so they appear to be doing!
This undoubtedly accurate article describes nothing short of a failed state that is also increasingly illegitimate. Gaoling people for nothing more than posting memes (and other forms of obnoxious content or expression) is clearly unjust and amounts to rounding up political prisoners for cruel and unusual punishment by those inflicted with critical theory that think they can create a woke technocratic nirvana but doom us all to an awful fate.
I wonder how many of the 20% would vote for these clowns tomorrow, and how many of the 40% would get off their backside to ensure we’re never subjected to these idiots ever again.
Operation Early Dawn sounds militaristic and fascistic, but the idea is simply not to overburden the existing prison estate. It will be used up north and (where most of the anti immigration disturbances occurred) not in the south of the country. What it means in practice is that police cells will get full and stay full while the inmates await their court appearance, which will not happen until a space for them in prison is assigned. This is of course fundamentally undemocratic. It also means that the police will be deterred from making an arrest as there may be no police cells left to put them in. This will have an obvious impact on safety of citizens locally and the principle of a just society. The answer must be more prisons but this Labour government seems not to want to go down that route (as it will reflect badly upon it?). It seems to have a problem with engaging with reality and making anything other than temporary stop gap sticking plaster decisions.