Last year the mainstream public prints were full of Net Zero-inspired nonsense claiming that the Gulf Stream could collapse by 2025. Classic green fear-mongering of course inspired by the 2004 Hollywood blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow with its harrowing portrayal of weather-related natural disasters. The overturning of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC) could plunge the North Atlantic into a new ice age and have dire weather impacts across the globe, according to a new study. The author, Peter Ditlevsen of the University of Copenhagen, told the constantly-alarmed Guardian: “I think we should be very worried.” But this was a scare story too far and even some scientists expressed doubt about it last year. Now, a new study has been published that points out this alarm about the collapsing Gulf Stream was contingent on unreliable climate models and any collapse could occur from now to infinity.
In other words, nobody knows, not least because the uncertainties are too large “to predict tipping times of major Earth system components from historical data”. Pick your data and the AMOC collapses tomorrow or the day after never. The new study is important since it effectively debunks much of the climate ‘tipping point’ alarm that is commonly used to scare humanity to adopt the insane requirements of Net Zero.
The paper is mainly concerned with the AMOC and the Gulf Stream but also refers to the Amazon rainforest and the Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets. It will be very difficult to dismiss or get retracted since the four authors are connected to the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, a noted green activist scientific operation. Last year, for instance, when the AMOC scare was raging through mainstream media, Potsdam Professor Stefan Rahmstorf said the Ditlevsen study added to the evidence that the AMOC collapse “is much nearer than we thought”. We can’t even rule out crossing the tipping point in the next decade or two, he added.
The authors warn that “uncertainties” arise from models and mechanistic methods along with historical data. These all need to be taken into account and propagated thoroughly “before attempting to estimate a future tipping time of any potential Earth system”. In plainer language this can be read as a need to check the ‘garbage in’ before notifying the BBC and the Guardian of the ‘garbage out’. The big problem lies in the “multiple levels of uncertainty” inherent in extrapolating from historical data. Referring to the Ditlevsen paper that caused such a stink last year, the authors say they show that the uncertainties, mostly around sea surface temperature data, were too large to predict a tipping point for the AMOC.
Climate tipping points have proven to be the go-to scare for eco-extremists of late. In 2022, the BBC’s chief green activist Justin Rowlatt presented a series of five radio programmes in which he “discovers” how global warming may trigger irreversible changes to our planet. Needless to say, the word ‘may’ did a lot of heavy lifting. Tipping points provide maximum alarm with minimal need for hard evidence. For instance, Rowlatt asked if “Antarctica changes will flood coastal cities for centuries to come”? No mention of course that the entire continent of Antarctica has shown little actual warming over the last 70 years at least. Rowlatt also “discovers” how global warming in the Arctic “may” trigger irreversible changes to our planet. Again no mention that Arctic sea ice has shown a small cyclical recovery over the last decade. Or that the Arctic was much warmer just a few thousand years ago. Rowlatt signs off on a cheery note asking if human society itself “could be on the cusp of its own tipping point”?
King Charles is supposed to be a constitutional monarch above political promotion and decision making in the U.K. But this hereditary monarch is an eco-warrior of long standing and he looks forward to the day when the world rids itself of hydrocarbon use – his own massive footprint being no doubt granted a necessary exception. At last year’s COP meeting in Dubai he flew by private jet to wear his eco Crown and launch into the Net Zero political fight. The world was said to be “dreadfully off track in addressing climate change”, whatever that meant, and he warned that “we are seeing tipping points being reached”. A lifetime of deference and not having to explain himself meant, well, that he didn’t explain himself. No evidence to back up his contentious political messages was provided.
Nearly 40 years ago extreme environmentalists joined force with hard Left collectivists to whip up the mother of all existential scares around natural cyclical variations in temperature. The notion that humans affect the global climate via hydrocarbons is heaven sent to those who seek global social and economic control. Hydrocarbons are an essential component of modern industrial life – it would be easier to list those goods and processes where they are not present. Those who control their use, and those who can mandate markedly inferior replacements, can determine every aspect of human life from diet to personal movement, living conditions and energy. Over the last 40 years the scientific process has been traduced and something called “the Science” declared ‘settled’. As the noted atmospheric scientist Richard Lindzen says, “The climate narrative is absurd, but trillions of dollars says it is not absurd.” All manner of fake weather statistics have been produced, oddballs claim to “attribute” extreme weather events to long-term changes in the climate, and computer models are somehow assumed to produce reasonable forecasts even though nearly all of their predictions have turned out to be wrong.
The sheer horror of Net Zero is becoming more apparent by the day. Removing all hydrocarbon use will cause millions, if not hundreds of millions, of people to die across the planet. The lessons of history teach us that when things get tight, people start to fight. Strong countries predate on the weaker ones, and nothing will weaken an economy more than an energy policy determined by the Mad Miliband in the U.K. or a President Giggles in the U.S. But there are signs that some sanity is being restored in climate science circles. Not least because most of the evidence-free scares are too ludicrous for an intelligent person to keep believing in.
To paraphrase a famous British prime minister: You tip if you want to, we are not for tipping.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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I do hope Charlie-boy’s reign will be mercifully short and Catherine drums some common-sense into King William.
Wouldn’t hold my breath on the latter.
As to the former, he doesn’t look in the greatest of health, considering he has access to the best healthcare possible.
And he is a WEFfer so also a traitor.
They are waaaay too far down that road. Who do you think funds the private jets?
60 years of failed predictions. Every year, new fraudulent and quite breathless hysterical ‘research’ that we ‘only have 10 years left’ is published en masse. Plant food the culprit. The endless failed predictions get a little tedious. The propaganda is so divorced from reality that even the brain dead sheeple might lift their heads from chewing and mumble that it does not make sense. 20C where I am in Sussex right now. Surely the hottest Aug 15th (assumption of Mary) evah…..But wait we were supposed to be underwater by now, or frozen in ice and I was supposed to be dead from Rona given that I am unstabbed and never wore a face anus wrap…..so much $cience. Just can’t keep up.
Maybe more like 40 years, but they are not even “predictions”. They are “projections”. Projections come from modelling where little scenarios are created all based on assumptions speculations and guesses, where many of the parameters in the model are either poorly understood or simply unknown. —-The climate establishment like to call this “Science”. ——Nope. —It is “Official Science” in support of a Political Agenda called Sustainable Development.
The average climate scientist understands the long term nature of their predictions and intends to be retired and drawing their public sector pension by the time they are debunked.
“The average climate scientist” funded by government perhaps. Who pays the piper calls the tune ofcourse.
It reminds me of the self creating markets like ambulance chasing lawyers and legal aid, renewable subsidies, etc. Remove the incentives, and it collapses overnight. Feel free to invest millions of your own money in studies and projections and whatever, but you get paid AFTER the investment if people want to, not before…
Grifters so to mine wherever the free money is – it’s nature.
Chris,———– You are doing all this fantastic work. But the public are still being bombarded with climate porn that seeks to control and manipulate them. How can we get the message that you and many others are trying to get across to people that they are being suckered into giving up everything good about modern civilisation under the false pretences of a climate crisis for which no empirical evidence exists?
——Yesterday Toby Young did an article entitled “Climate deniers of the world unite” He uses the term “deniers” cynically ofcourse as this has to be one of the most infantile pieces of name calling in all of politics. But how do people aware of this eco socialist scam unite and warn people when the mainstream media stitch up where they all read from the same script prevents that?
BBC News now reports scary climate news before it happens, because there is no point in reporting it after it doesn’t happen:
“Olympics 2024: how extreme weather could impact Paris games
The summer Olympics and Paralympic games in Paris are just over a month away and there is concern about the potential effects of extreme heat.
…Intense heat could affect the events, competitors, spectators and officials…”
https://www.bbc.co.uk/weather/articles/cqll9v0qynqo
“because there is no point in reporting it after it doesn’t happen”——classic. The British Brainwashing Corporation in full propaganda mode.
It has been eroded away. The idea of scientific modelling has been shown to be ludicrous on every level. In Russia even working class people are well aware of the literal pole shift that is coming, They have started a wholly new northern trade route in concert with China which bypasses the Suez Canal and is predicated on the idea of a huge thaw in the near future. I know British people assume themselves to be the most up to date and best informed people in the world but this really isn’t the case anymore. You don’t realise how antiquated and ridiculous this nonsense sounds. Which would be fine if it were mere abstraction but they are robbing you blind in real time based on false premises.
There is no generalized fear. If it died exist or has become a prevailing attitude then you would see less traffic on the roads. There is certainly less commerce going on in offices in cities but the traffic levels haven’t gone down on major roads. Do you really believe that ten percent of people consider the bigger picture. It is more like less than one percent. I don’t knock it I am just pointing out that with most people selfish concerns are the only concerns. These people aren’t familiar with concepts like ethics or morality. If you were to ask them about Russia/Ukraine they would probably think you were talking about a football match. I don’t say this to disparage this tendency I love it because the alternative is much worse.
“President Giggles”. Please god, no.