In recent weeks, Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has been jetting around the world on a self-described “peace mission”; his aim being to end the War in Ukraine. He first spoke to Zelensky in Kiev, before heading to Moscow for talks with Putin. He then conferred with Xi Jinping in Beijing, before flying to Mar-a-Lago to meet with Trump – who may well be the next U.S. President.
Orbán’s “peace mission” began when Hungary assumed the rotating Presidency of the Council of the European Union (not to be confused with the European Council or the Council of Europe). However, the Presidency does not give Orbán a mandate to represent the EU in foreign relations, and the EU’s diplomatic service felt the need to clarify this in a press statement. Indeed, European leaders have been highly critical of Orbán’s efforts.
Kaja Kallas, the Prime Minister of Estonia, accused him of “exploiting the EU Presidency position to sow confusion”. Valérie Hayer, President of the Renew Europe parliamentary bloc, called his “pretend peace mission” a “security threat” and said it’s time to “rein in” Orbán’s “rogue Presidency”. Renew Europe has demanded that EU bodies “take further steps” that could lead to the removal of Hungary’s voting rights.
For his part, Orbán does not claim to be representing the EU. Indeed, he explicitly told Hungarian media: “I am not negotiating on behalf of anyone”. What he’s doing, he says, is attempting to “restore dialogue” through “fact-finding”. He wants to establish what each leader’s red lines are, and whether there might be room for compromise.
This seems eminently sensible. Almost everyone believes the war will end in some kind of settlement – either a frozen conflict or a formal treaty. (Few seriously believe that one side will achieve a total victory over the other.) So why not start diplomacy now? In fact, why has it taken a maverick like Orbán to do what European leaders should have been doing from Day One? Sure, his efforts might lead nowhere. But it must be worth trying?
Many Europeans seem to think so. A recent survey by the Institute for Global Affairs asked Brits, French and Germans whether NATO countries should push for a negotiated settlement for the war in Ukraine. Respondents were asked to select up to two responses from a list of six. By far the most popular one was: “Yes, the war has killed or injured hundreds of thousands of people, and it needs to stop.”
Likewise, a recent survey by the European Council on Foreign Relations asked people in various European countries: “What should Europe do about the war in Ukraine?” In France, Germany, Switzerland, Czechia, Italy, Greece and Bulgaria, more said “push Ukraine towards negotiating a peace deal” than said “support Ukraine to fight to regain the territories occupied by Russia”. (Though the opposite was true in Estonia, Sweden, Britain, Poland, Portugal and the Netherlands.)
It would be fair to say at least half of Europeans support the kind of approach that Viktor Orbán is pursuing. Yet their views are almost entirely unrepresented in the upper echelons of the EU. Of course, this wouldn’t be the first time the EU ignored public opinion.
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