The historic score of Marine Le Pen’s National Rally in the first round of French legislative elections last Sunday has created great anticipation that Le Pen’s party might finally gain some degree of power after the second round of elections this weekend, with Le Pen’s young protégé, party Chair Jordan Bardella, becoming Prime Minister. As the head of Government, Bardella would then share power with the Head of State, President Emmanuel Macron, in an arrangement that the French call “cohabitation” when the two leaders come from different political parties or tendencies.
But the electoral maths is not in fact so favourable to Le Pen and her party as it might appear at first glance. The below graph shows the results of the first round of voting broken down by the percentage of votes cast for candidates from each of the different electoral alliances or parties.
As can be seen, the National Rally (RN) and its allies came away with the largest haul of votes, winning nearly a third of all the votes cast. The allies consist of a breakaway faction of the mainstream conservative party “The Republicans”. The breakaway faction is led by Eric Ciotti, who remains for the moment the Chair of the “The Republicans” despite efforts of other party leaders to oust him for having rallied to Le Pen’s National Rally.
A “Left-wing” alliance calling itself the “New Popular Front” garnered 28% of the votes, the second-best result. The centrepiece of the New Popular Front is Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s La France Insoumise (LFI) – which could be roughly translated as “Rebel France”. The remnants of the French Socialist Party, whose support has been sapped by Macron’s En Marche (“On the Move”) movement, and the Greens are also members of the alliance. But it also includes – despite the separate presence of the “far Left” in the tally – parties which would ordinarily be considered as about as far to the Left as one could get: like the French Communist Party and the Nouveau Parti Anti-Capitaliste or “New Anti-Capitalist Party”.
Mélenchon (seen in the above photo with Emmanuel Macron) finished third in the first round of voting in the 2022 French Presidential election behind Macron and Le Pen. He has been widely accused of coquetting with antisemitism in the aftermath of the October 7th attacks in Israel, in order to attract the votes of Arab immigrants in France’s troubled urban ghettos or “banlieues”. Even thoroughly mainstream French political figures, like former Prime Minister Manuel Valls, share this assessment.
Macron’s Ensemble – “Together” – alliance garnered barely 20% of the votes and the remnants of “The Republicans”, without the Ciotti faction, 10%.
A closer look at the tally makes clear that there is very little reservoir of votes on which National Rally candidates can draw in the second-round run-offs next Sunday. Even if the entirety of the electorate of “The Republicans” should prove less fastidious than the party leadership and be willing to support RN candidates, this would only get the RN to 43%, and smaller “Right” and “far-Right” groupings have hardly any votes to offer.
With 130 candidates from Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” and 82 from Macron’s “Together” alliance having already withdrawn from so-called “triangular” three-way run-offs in a tacit electoral pact and to avoid splitting the vote, this means that it will be nearly impossible for the National Rally to obtain the 289 seats in the National Assembly which it would need to have an outright majority.
“New Popular Front” candidates who have qualified for second-round run-offs include:
- Philippe Poutou of the New Anti-Capitalist Party, which issued a statement in response to the October 7th attacks expressing its “support for the Palestinians and the means of struggle they have chosen to resist”;
- Raphaël Arnault, a young militant in the often violent, self-styled “antifa” (anti-fascist) movement who, it turns out, is himself, like numerous suspected terrorists, classified as a security threat (“fiché S”) by French security services;
- Mohamed Awad, who is accused of having been an official in a Muslim Brotherhood youth group, the Jeunes musulmans de France (Young Muslims of France); and
- David Guiraud, who describes Israel as a “colonial state undertaking ethnic cleansing” and who has been accused of relativising Hamas’s crimes during a talk he gave in Tunis, in which he said, among other things, “the baby in the oven, that was in fact done, by Israel; the mother whose belly was cut open, that was done, it’s true, by Israel”.
The New Anti-Capitalist Party is under investigation for “apology for terrorism”. Violette Spillebout, an outgoing member of the National Assembly from Macron’s party, has called for a similar investigation to be opened against David Guiraud. Nonetheless, Tarik Mekki, the “Macronist” candidate who was narrowly eliminated in the first round of voting, has thrown his support behind Guiraud.
According to the latest adjusted projections of France’s CNews news channel, Le Pen’s National Rally could obtain 250 to 265 seats in the new National Assembly, Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” 160 to 175, Macron’s alliance 95 to 105, and the Republicans 30 or so.
The National Rally’s aspirations would thus yet again be defeated by what is called the politics of “the Republican Front” in France – or, in other words, everyone but Le Pen. Even if this “everyone” includes antisemites, Islamists, “antifa” and terror apologists.
Postscript:
Based on new polling data from the OpinionWay market research institute, CNews has further revised its projections, with the seats to be obtained by Le Pen’s National Rally falling and those to be obtained by Macron’s “Together” presidential alliance rising in roughly the same measure. This presumably reflects the fact that, as noted above, far more “New Popular Front” candidates have withdrawn from second round run-offs than “Macronist” candidates and Macronist candidates, as a rule, do better in head-to-head contests with National Rally candidates than “New Popular Front” candidates.
According to the new projections, Le Pen’s National Rally will obtain just 205 to 230 seats, Mélenchon’s “New Popular Front” 150 to 180, Macron’s presidential alliance 125 to 155, and The Republicans 38 to 50. The National Rally will thus be far from having the numbers required to form a Government, and Macron – thanks to the tacit support of Mélenchon and his rag-tag band of radicals of different stripes – will be something of a “comeback kid”.
Robert Kogon is the pen name of a widely-published journalist covering European affairs. Subscribe to his Substack.
To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.
Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.
Same choice as in the UK – if you want to preserve your country, you know who you need to vote for.
Apparently there’s been an increase, compared to previous elections, in young women, Jews and Catholics voting for Le Pen. I can make an educated guess why. Unfortunately I don’t think these particular ‘young women’ ( below ) are included in the numbers.
This brings me to, once again, shine a light on the hypocrisy of feminism and to just ask, what the hell is the point? If you watch the vid ( *max cringe factor* ) and read this short piece you’ll see what I mean. What I’d like to know is this: are all self-identified feminists Leftards? Because all I see are contradictions and double-standards everywhere. So much so that I think the whole thing becomes meaningless and cancels itself out, to be fair, it’s that farcical. What are these women even meant to stand for nowadays? It’s impossible to tell.
They call Le Pen’s party ”fascists” and ”racist” whilst ignoring the crime stats which show clearly that more foreigners commit sex crimes ( and stabbings ) as a proportion of their numbers vs those without a migrant background. But keep those ”Refugees Welcome” signs handy, feminist ladies…ya bloody irrational nutcases;
”Nudity warning, but this video perfectly sums up the utter stupidity that’s apparently a shared trait between leftist women in the West…
They’ve got their bare boobs out, doing “housework” in a skirt and heels, looking cute enough with their makeup, all without the financial stability and safety net of a provider husband because…they’re mad about electoral results. Seriously, if you’re going to become a cliché male fantasy, at least get the serious benefits that a man brings to the table as a partner. Why give all that up for nothing in exchange?
If the relationship between men and women is all so gross and transactional, as leftist feminism routinely implies, then this little stunt just goes to show how truly incompetent leftist women are when they come to the bargaining table. Leftist feminism accuses men of being pigs who “only want one thing” which means any woman who adopts such an ideology and then acts like the woman epitomizes stupidity—a more intelligent woman would use that knowledge, and her femininity, to her advantage.”
https://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2024/07/french_feminists_don_skirts_go_topless_and_start_mopping_the_floors_in_protest_of_the_far_right_winning_at_the_ballot_box.html
What would be interesting is to get these feminist ladies’ opinion on these nice young gentlemen and their song lyrics. I mean, fundamentally they’re on the same page. Aren’t they??
*Pardon my French!*
”French rappers release ULTRA-VIOLENT new anti-National Rally music video:
“Marine and Marion the whores, beat these female dogs in heat with a stick.
“Jodan, you’re dead.”
“If the fascists come by, I’m going out with a big caliber.”
Other lyrics include;
“They deserve the cane.”
“This is for my friends under QQTF (French deportation orders).”
The track was produced by a collective of 20 popular rappers, including Fianso, ISK, Alkpote and Akhenaton
They are already raising money through the anti-National Rally video, as the left eats up the brutal, murderous, and anti-female lyrics.”
https://x.com/RMXnews/status/1808064777874255984
And let’s not forget: That’s how to BE KIND.
Well nothing screams ”I object to being objectified!” like getting your Bristol Cities out in public and writing words on said baps. Next they’ll be saying that sex workers and lap dancers are the embodiment of ‘female empowerment’. And don’t get me started on the music industry ( or what passes for ”music” these days ) because there seems to be a correlation between female artists’ success and how few clothes they wear ( and how sexually suggestive they are in videos and on stage ), with only a few exceptions that I can count on one hand, e.g Adele when she was big, and Sia. Just look at one genre of music, rap, to see exactly what I’m on about. So do they all count themselves as feminists, I wonder?
I think I may have inadvertently done a ‘Mary Whitehouse’ there and unwittingly entered the ‘The Prudey Zone’….bah.
Crikey, do I sound like an old vanilla fart?
I’ve long since come to the conclusion that the so-called music industry is really in the business of making films about barely clothed black (mostly) women.
And about people filthy rich. Can’t they imagen a hard working man in a music video.
I’m unsure if it was Mary Whitehouse or Barbara “Walkies!” Windsor to be honest Mog LOL!
I think you mean Barbara Woodhouse…
My Mom, wife and three sisters are all strong women in their 60’s upwards into 90’s. All of them believe in women’s rights but, as my Mom said in the 1970’s “I believe in women’s rights but it’s gone too far when they do stupid things like burning their bras. What are they trying to prove?”.
Well, that applies even more to today: what are Labour, a deeply antisemitic, anti-British and anti-women party, trying to prove? They intend to remove all of the women’s rights to be women because of blokes in dresses. They already drove out all but two Jewish MP’s from their party. They loathe Rosie Duffield because she tells the truth.
Quentin Crisp, all those years ago, had a point to prove. Today my son and his husband have the same rights as I do. So what do Pride and Labour want? My son is perfectly happy, by the way, with his terrible plight
What on earth were the former Tories trying to do by hanging onto sick people’s coattails?
Macron happy to get in bed with communists to keep France in the EU. Says it all, ppl are so dumb not to see through this “liberal” dictatorship. Macron and the communists are merely fellow travellers.
Reading the above, I find it difficult not to associate it with Python’s ‘Life of Brian’ and the Judean Peoples’ Front’ discussion. I recall a diversion for the fighter pilots operating QRA (quick reaction alert) for many hours at a time cooped up in a bunker awaiting a possible ‘scramble’ call was a huge supply of videos to while away the hours. The Life of Brian vid’ was essential viewing in the early 80s for the fighter ‘jocks’. Indeed, so ‘seriously’ did they take it, that alongside flying suit badges such as 1,000hrs F4 Phantom and 1,000hrs Lightning and various other patches was the much coveted ‘100hrs Life of Brian’ badge. To qualify to wear the patch, 100hrs watching the vid had to be logged, and a testing exam on the dialogue had to be passed.
France, politically, economically, is preserved in aspic. The Establishment is too strong fir that to change.
What would force change is if/when the EU implodes and the money spigot is turned off so France will have to support itself – and can’t.
The Dutch Blob tried the same tactic. All it did was delay things a bit.
As Tice and Farage said yesterday, you first get a bridgehead and the entire project is a long process. We now have 5 MP’s, the bridgehead. Le Penn has spent far longer but she is almost within touching distance of the goal.
France as with Britain: they can’t thwart the people forever. If Le Penn doesn’t win this time, she will next time. Reform will be 2nd or 3d next time, it’s a process. Reform will now get funding and that builds professionalism. We face the same process Le Penn went through.