Welcome to the Weekly Sceptic episode 93
This week:
Nick and Toby talk about:
- Nigel Farage provoking a ‘Matrix attack’ by claiming Putin’s invasion of Ukraine was provoked
- The Conservatives imploding election campaign and whether Reform really are pulling ahead
- Whether Keir Starmer wants to ‘reform’ the constitution because he wants to permanently embed radical progressive policies or just preserve the power of the professional managerial class
- And premium content on www.basedmedia.org, which includes:
- The real reason behind Starmer’s claim he would never ‘go private’, i.e., his wife works for the NHS so he and his family would get special treatment
- The Supreme Court decision that effectively puts an end to Britain’s oil and gas industry
- Everyone’s favourite section Peak Woke, which includes a discussion of whether we live in a ‘patriarchy’, as per Taylor Swift, or a ‘matriarchy’
- And in the Based Department, J.K Rowling, Javier Milei and the ‘hawk tuah’ girl
Go to Based to sign up as a premium subscriber for as little as £5 a month!
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Filmed at the Westminster Podcast Studio.
Music by Tinderella.
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Toby’s comment about Ukraine sovereignty is too simple. deciding to join NATO and EU is also a giving up of sovereignty. i.e. and hence BREXIT A truely sovereign Ukraine is superficially at least an independent or neutral one – the position Russia/Putin originally preferred given their security concerns. Of course that ship has now passed thanks to he morally bankrupt Boris and Co and any settlement will be now be on very different terms. But the slaughter really ought to be stopped – its is enormous on both sides, but I don’t think Russia is likely to lose. Unless you can quickly cut off the head in a war of movement ultimately it is manpower and and core industry which will win. Ukraine have less, and so much of the west’s industry has exported its co2 footprint to China.
Why do you think that the slaughter is ongoing?
I take a fairly regular look at Weeb Union on U tube. at the moment its steady slow progress by the Russians all across the front, but slow means its difficult.
But what is the reason that the slaughter is ongoing?
Why do both sides persist?
I see, you mean why is the war ongoing, rather than some emotional line on what constitutes slaughter.
Well because the west and Ukraine powers still believe they can win a formerly independent sovereign if rather corrupt ukraine into Nato and the EU and Russia/Putin still thinks that this would be such a security threat to them and their non woke culture that its worth going to war for. While both beliefs persist and military means continue so will the slaughter.
Outside of some miracle Ukraine will not beat Russia by itself, its army is exhausted.
Apart from a Ukraine army collapse I suspect there will be a new distraction which will finally enable the west’s withdrawl from this; Trump or Frexit or the new Bird flu, economic collapse caused by green policy or something, and Ukraine will be forced to drop its belief and negotiate. They will of course no longer get their original borders back. I think they will be lucky not to end up landlocked.
Ukraine is not eligible to join NATO
‘States which have ethnic disputes or external territorial disputes, including irredentist claims, or internal jurisdictional disputes must settle those disputes by peaceful means in accordance with OSCE principles. Resolution of such disputes would be a factor in determining whether to invite a state to join the Alliance.’
Two new countries, right next to Russia, just joined NATO.
Does that mean Russia will go to war with them?
?? Western leaders have called for Ukraine to join, when the time is right.
Greece wasn’t eligible to join the EU, but the EU cooked the books when the time was right!
By your criteria probably Turkey should not be in NATO with its internal and external disputes, but hey oh it borders the black sea and the time was right.
If you can’t appreciate the close connection of Ukraine and Russia, especially given the number of Russian speakers, then you need to think again.
The clue is in “When the time is right’
The time cannot be right while there are ‘external territorial disputes’.
There is no close connection between Ukraine and Russia. Those days are gone forever. Get used to it. Putin tried to create empire and created implacability instead.
Here’s how it plays out: a frozen conflict by 2026. Ukraine turned into a ‘porcupine’ like Finland, strong defensively, big domestic defence industry, EU membership so, eventually, prosperous, investment in infrastructure; weak in offensive capability.
Ukraine in NATO? Not until regime change in Russia and by then (50 years? ) we could be back to discussing Russian membership of NATO.
The clue ‘in the time is right’ is why the Russians/ Putin cannot believe/trust the west. The time is right for the west is now all about political posturing not when criteria are met, because we are now woke. Hence Greece in the EU etc, There is no such thing as right and wrong anymore.
Why do you think EU membership correlates to prosperity, when it is decimating its industries based on nonsense green ideology. How many times has the earth been a hot house with no ice and had ice ages all without man’s influence? -several. There are bigger cycles involved which dwarf mans contribution. Don’t you know strategic power relies on these core industries which can support the military. This was the initial reason for the coal union between France and Germany after the war.
What do you mean no ties there are loads of russian speakers!
It will not be a frozen conflict. Either Ukraine sues for peace on terms which will in any case not enable what you are suggesting , but would be better than below or Russia will just keep going and take all the land they might need to secure the Russian speaking places (with a big buffer) plus their strategic Black sea interests. I think this would leave Ukraine as a much smaller landlocked rump, but which would also still be under direct Russian influence.
Compare the nearest comparable nation to Ukraine, Poland’s, prosperity now to its economic situation prior to joining the EU.
Poland’s economic growth accelerated after its entry to the EU and, between 2004 and 2022, its nominal GDP increased by nearly 170% to $688.13 billion, according to World Bank data.
Your view, like that of many in western capitalist democracies, is far too short term.
This doesn’t end inside fifty years. This struggle has been going on for centuries.
Any lasting peace settlement in Ukraine will have to address two apparent causes of Russian aggression. There is the historically rooted sense of a threat from the border regions and the more recent threat of new and insidious ideas of an open and democratic society.
A settlement may have to include a Ukrainian promise of neutrality, at least over a period of years, and the commitment not to host joint military exercises with NATO.
Ukrainians will not accept any change in their liberal, Western-oriented society.
In the end, events on the battlefield will determine whether Putin achieves such political concessions. There is evidence that he understands the potent Ukrainian nationalist sentiments in the west of the country, and he seems to be learning that pro-West, pro-Europe views are strong in the central and eastern regions too.