The European election results are in. Last night saw the EU Parliament continue its slow Rightward and populist trajectory. But despite some drama, this was largely confined to a few countries’ ballots, not the continent-wide rejection of the ‘globalist’ mainstream that some had predicted. The clues from this election about the future direction of European climate politics are similarly mixed, with the hard green vote falling sharply but centrist parties committed to the green agenda gaining ground.
The big dramas of the night were caused at the national, not European, level. Belgian Prime Minister Alexander De Croo resigned following the country’s coincident federal election which saw large gains for conservative and anti-immigration parties. Similarly, following a huge gain by the National Rally party of Marine Le Pen, which, according to provisional results, increased its seats from 18 to 30, President Macron called a snap general (parliamentary) election in an attempt to restore his weakening authority. In Germany, the ascendent Alternative für Deutschland saw a modest gain from nine to 15 seats. The much-feared rise of the radical Right, in the form of the Identity and Democracy (ID) group, was somewhat muted. The group gained nine seats, increasing its total to 58. The European Conservatives and Reformists (ECR) group gained four seats.
Both of these continent-wide political groups are circumspect about green policies, arguing for ‘affordable’ solutions to environmental problems rather than the radical targets-based ideological policies that seek bans before economic alternatives can be found. “Ambition has turned into wishful thinking and pragmatism has been replaced by an ideology that has produced unattainable rules and goals,” explains the ID group’s website.
Without doubt, however, the election has been terrible for the parties of the Greens and European Free Alliance (EFA) group in the European Parliament. According to preliminary results, it was the worst election for the EFA group since 1994, with the group’s vote share halving in some member states. Overall, the greens won 18 fewer seats than in the 2019 election.
The EFA fared worst in the countries that had seen the biggest boost for the radical greens in the 2019 election. Whereas in the 2019 election the German Greens had gained nine seats, six of these were lost in this year’s vote, leaving them with 16, signalling trouble for the German governing coalition, of which the Greens are a minority member. In France, the EFA doubled its seats in 2019, but of those 12, seven were lost this year, leaving it with just five.
These losses were slightly ameliorated by modest gains in Italy (three seats), Slovenia (one), Croatia (one) and Czechia (one), in each case up from zero in the last Parliamentary term. Single seats were also gained in Spain (bringing the total to four), the Netherlands (four), Denmark (three) and Sweden (three).
The 2019 elections were (falsely) hailed by many as a ‘green wave’. But as I pointed out at the time, these gains were confined to Europe’s wealthiest parts – the north and northwest – not signifying a continent-wide appetite for radical environmentalism. It seems that the last five years, which have seen lockdowns, the consequences of war in Europe and economic hardship, have shown that deep green politics is a luxury belief predicated on a surfeit of First World levels of abundance. Overall, the EFA’s results this year show a more diffuse and weaker level of support across the EU members.
Despite green parties now having been around for half a century, the group’s vote has historically only hovered around the level required to keep deposits, with the occasional instances of support above or below this level being akin to statistical noise. This speaks to one of the most enduring mysteries of European politics: with so little evidence of public support for radical environmentalism, why does the climate agenda dominate political decision-making both at the EU and national level? Now, with the EFA polling so poorly, will the political centre of gravity shift in Brussels, or will EU elites cling on to the Green Deal championed by European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen over the last few years?
The European People’s Party (EPP) is the centre-Right group which has long dominated in the European Parliament. In this election, the EPP increased its seats from 176 to 186. This is not a majority of the 705 seats, so in previous sessions the EPP has formed a Grand Coalition with the Socialists and Democrats (S&D) group. After the 2019 election, the EPP joined instead with broadly liberal and centrist Renew Europe to give EPP’s nominee von der Leyen the majority she required to become President. However, Renew has lost 22 of its 80 seats.
According to the Telegraph in an article published before the election results, the EPP has already been attempting to soften its environmentalism to face off the emerging threat from the growing nationalist and more conservative parties. This includes vowing to “reverse the EU ban on combustion-engine cars as soon as possible”. But this politicking should not be seen as signifying intent. Much like Rishi Sunak’s minimal adjustment to U.K. Net Zero policies – the delay on the ban on gas boilers and combustion-engine car sales – the softening of policies doesn’t amount to a U-turn and is better seen as an attempt to save Net Zero. We’ve a long way to go before these managerialist technocrats realise the green policy agenda is ill-conceived and doomed.
But how the new presidency – which von der Leyen is hoping to retain – will build a majority coalition remains to be seen. It may be that Net Zero and the bloc’s Green Deal can be saved by von der Leyen seeking a broad or grand coalition, the members of which require a continuation of Europe’s green suicide pact. This may be a better option for the green champion, who would have to perform something of a U-turn if she is to rely on those to her and the EPP’s Right.
The former option would of course risk supplying more grist to the Right’s mill. Will the centrists risk keeping the Right on the margins, with the danger of greater blowback as public anger about mass immigration and the cost of aggressive environmental policies boils over? Or will they try to neutralise Right-wing parties by acceding to the minimum of their demands and bringing them in closer?
Whichever way von der Leyen and her cronies (or her successor and theirs) jumps, one thing is certain. This election was not exactly the earthquake some had predicted, but it does signal that there is nothing ahead but crises for the EPP and wider European political class. Either the corrupt, anti-democratic EU political elites continue to ignore the material interests of half a billion people, or they take steps towards shattering the consensus that has brought them to this point. With public discontent growing, threatening their cosy politics, neither option will be comfortable. Don’t expect an end to Net Zero just yet.
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Here’s an idea. What if people feeling really ill just stayed at home until they felt better? Just like we do with the flu. No need for anyone to isolate, test or trace. This thing is endemic now.
After all if we are going to have to live with COVID then treat it as if was the flu.
Back to normal after a 2 minute announcement
You are sane, Paul M.
A rare thing these days.
And totally unheard-of in government.
LS reported on that study a few months ago which showed that about 50% of symptomatic people didn’t bother to isolate. This is the reason the virus is spreading, obviously. Not asymptomatic children…
Ah if only it were so simple. Many people out there don’t take sick leave even when they need it because they just can’t afford to lose out on 2+ weeks’ wages. These are the folks who have been manning the checkout desks and driving delivery vans in order to enable the govt’s agenda.
Yes…. You are so right ——- but they are already talking about the booster — I do feels hard to imagine things will ever be normal again – Big Pharma and Big tech funding have got the governments to do whatever they decide they want done and the Jab is worth Billions to them —
Like the teacher at our daughter’s school who came into work feeling unwell, gave a positive lateral flow test and the class have been told to self isolate. Don’t let anyone tell you teachers have common sense.
Or any consideration for the parents of pupils who maybe don’t have public sector jobs so need to work to pay the bills.
Ah, there we go. You don’t have to go home, you just have to submit to an invasive medical procedure every single day in order to prove your innocence.
Get used to it, kid, this is the New Normal.
Replacing one load of bollocks with another, almost as bad, as bad, worse, but bollocks nonetheless.
I know time is limited but would like to see more context and comment from the writers ATL, destroying the nonsense, for the benefit of casual readers or newbies or to hone arguments.
We’ve seen many “good news” articles that are not really good news at all. Just seems like the site is cheerleading for the govt’s weasel attempts to pretend we are coming out of coronamadness when we are doing no such thing
COVID WAS NOT AN EXCEPTIONAL EVENT REQUIRING OR JUSTIFYING EXCEPTIONAL MEASURES
Yes – I was disappointed to see Ioannides succumbing to the snake oil myths (see Round Up)
They will just replace this with a more pushy testing and tracing policy for kids.
These guys are merciless.
Another idea that was brainless in the first place. The idiot cabinet is the only entity needing a bubble – to shut them away from us.
FFS – We are being governed by people who don’t understand basic terminology like ‘infection’, ‘case’, ‘Covid’, and who still can’t grasp the basic uselessness of blanket testing or are able to read standard pandemic planning documents.
I expect the bubbles will be scrapped but replaced by something worse, like compulsory vaccination and/or testing.
*searches internet for books about home schooling*
Me and my wife are on standby to start homeschooling or boys if shit happens
Me too! Many other parents are planning the same – new community schools being planned across the country.
Parents needs to stand up to this madness, and simply refuse to send their kids to school. It will take everyone to do it, but that would solve it pretty quickly I would imagine
My daughters year have all been told to school from home for the next 2 weeks. Absolute joke.
Please a) stop advising we read ‘in full’ when the summary is enough to have us reaching for the sick bag and b) apply a bit of editorial judgement rather than simply relaying govt toss without scrutiny. We have the BBC for that, remember.
HEAR HEAR.
Toby used to take a robustly critical stance, which has now been replaced by wet lettuce.
To be fair, TY is extremely busy and commenting on every article is asking a lot.
Ideally he would have a much bigger team, with a budget to go with it
Scrap the school bubbles.
End of school year.
yeah.
As always, more excuses to prolong the agony from this Branch Covidian government.
They cannot give the experimental vaccine if they give up their emergency powers -that is what it is all about …..
Exactly! I don’t understand why more isn’t made of this point!
“Could be”
Pigs could fly if they had wings.
“Let’s just look at new models with dodgy rules to pile on the agony…because we can…and we know lots will not hesitate to comply. Isn’t this fun?” is what Williamson meant.
Gavin Williamson makes Matt Hancock look competent. Perhaps The Sun have some video of him.
This is really easy.
STOP TESTING CHILDREN UNDER 18.
Stop testing everyone
He wouldn’t even know where her arse was. Probably get it confused with her elbow.
200 lines for The Secretary of State for Education. Decline the following sentence.
I am a cretin.
You, Matt Hancock, are a cretin.
He, Boris Johnson, is a cretin.
We the Government are cretins.
You, SAGE, are cretins.
They, the Main Stream Media, are cretins.
This is one of the best comments I’ve read
love it 
They were all cretinous.
Love it
The depravity, the sheer, utter, merciless evil of these people is to me, beyond belief.
There are no excuses for what these SICK bastards are doing to children.
NONE.
NONE — it is EVIL
Prove first that all this testing isn’t harmful! Parents should refuse to allow these invasive repetitive tests until it can be proven not to harm the children’s mucous membranes, cilia etc. We know it harms their psyches.
They should, but they don’t. I’m a teacher and have to give the damn things out to my form every week. No one in my own household has ever been tested once; people don’t seem to understand that none of it is mandatory and are incapable of doing even the most basic research. I despair.
You say it’s not mandatory, yet you “have to” give the damned things out. So that part is ‘mandatory’.
They “could” be scrapped immediately if anyone in government had any integrity.
They do NOT know the meaning of the word.
Why cant Williamson pronounce Bubbles properly have you listened? its really odd
Is it because he’s a Fucking Cunt?
So, end the ridiculous bubbles 4 days before the summer holidays start? What a cunning plan from the Baldrick of British politics.
Some areas break up before the 19th. But this date has been pushed by the opposition i.e. the minority who are apparently on our side in the tory party.
The reason of course Boris/Stanley/Carrie/Klaus love the chaos in schools e.g. whole classes and year groups sent home for one (false) positive test is because they want to vaccinate kids. If they keep sending them home they think parents will more readily offer up their dim witted progeny for ‘vaccination’. Same with travel.
This morning, I should be caring for my youngest granddaughter while her sister, my other granddaughter, goes to school. I am not doing this however because someone in her class has “tested positive” so she has to stay at home until next Thursday.
Instead, I will come here to leave this comment from Christian Drosten (boo, hiss) who provided the first “PCR test” for the WHO to use last year and which was held up as the gold standard. The results of this test are used by governments to legitimise massive restrictions and take away our human rights.
As early as 2014, Drosten said about this PCR test method “The method is so sensitive that it can detect even a single molecule of the virus genome. If such a pathogen has, for example, spent one day on the nasal mucosa of a nurse, without her getting sick or noticing anything, she suddenly becomes a case of MERS. Where previously there were reports of people who were ‘sick to death’ (my inverted commas) the statistics now contain mildly ill people and people who are in fact perfectly healthy. This is how the explosion in the number of cases in Saudi Arabia could be explained. In addition, the media on the spot have inflated the matter incredibly. “
Exactly what has happened with the Corona virus.
This idiot Williamson seriously thinks that schoolchildren should be subjected to daily testing? What planet is he on? He should be sectioned for his and everyone else’s safety.
Especially after concerns have been raised over ethylene oxide – exposing children to it 5 days a week is simply a risk not worth taking, especially as children (who don’t have compromised immune systems) have a vanishingly small chance of dying from the virus (1-in-2.5 million or thereabouts, I believe) and are not vectors of the virus.
This is simply to make life so unpleasant that parents will agree to letting their children be jabbed – does anyone with critical thinking skills still believe this is about curtailing a virus?
When life becomes so unpleasant, why take it out on your children instead of those causing the misery?
Indeed – but the propaganda machine will urge parents on.
God, they’re so obsessed with their bloody virus – and selling tests and jabs.
Bubbles are utterly pointless – anyone with half a brain would know that – as many, many kids have siblings that span bubbles.
I asked my 11 year old grandson how many in his class of 32 have siblings in other bubbles. He estimated at least eight! Even he realises these ridiculous bubbles are pointless. Just “experts” pretending they are “doing something”.