The climate events of 2022-24 have been “truly extraordinary”, notes Dr. Javier Vinós writing in Dr. Judith Curry’s online blog. The rare convergence of a number of events “that may not be repeated for hundreds or even thousands of years” represents a “unique learning opportunity” for climatologists. Interestingly, Dr. Vinós downplays the roll of the current El Niño. He says that the January 2022 Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption, that boosted upper atmospheric water vapour by a remarkable 10%, is the most likely cause of the recent warming, which in turn led to an unprecedented three sudden stratospheric warming events. As the excess water leaves the atmosphere, observes Vinós, it will induce a cooling effect at the surface potentially lowering temperatures for the next three to four years.
The Hunga Tonga eruption was an extraordinary event since it blasted an enormous amount of water vapour into the upper atmosphere without the usual volcanic ash. Dust particles spread throughout the atmosphere can have a temporary cooling effect, as in 1815 with the Mount Tambora explosion, but water vapour has warming properties and is considered the most potent ‘greenhouse’ gas. “Unlike the lower troposphere, where the greenhouse effect is relatively saturated, the stratosphere, well above the Earth’s average emission altitude (about 6 km), experiences a much more pronounced effect from the addition of water vapour,” he observes.
The unusual weather events over the last few months have been catnip to alarmists in the general ranks of media, science and politics. The strictures of following the Net Zero political agenda mean that large swathes of climate science are ‘settled’ and out of bounds for discussion. All the changes in the weather and climate are due to humans using hydrocarbons, state the authorities. The constant catastrophising of the recent weather has largely ignored natural variation, and so the heat transfers of El Niño and the boosting of water vapour from Hunga Tonga are relegated to subsidiary footnotes.
Climate scientists were initially shocked by the ferocity of the Hunga Tunga eruption and the huge plume of water that suddenly shot into the upper atmosphere. Within months a group of European scientists drew attention to the scale of the discharge. They concluded that the unique nature and magnitude of the global stratospheric perturbation caused by the volcano “ranks it among the most remarkable climatic events in the modern observational era, with a range of potential long-lasting repercussions for stratospheric composition and climate”. Since that date there does not appear to have been a great deal of debate about the subject published in the scientific press. The cynical might conclude that there is not a big demand for anything that might dent all the recent weather propaganda helpfully propping up Net Zero.
Never before have we witnessed an undersea volcanic eruption with a plume capable of reaching the stratosphere and depositing a large amount of vapourised water, states Dr. Vinós.
The above drawing shows the dramatic increase in water vapour since the start of 2022. It illustrates the movement of the volcanic water from the tropical regions to the mid and high latitudes where it will gradually leave the atmosphere in the coming years. Vinós poses the question, why did it take so long to detect atmospheric changes, and he suggest the answers lie in very quick longitudinal spread but much slower travel though the latitudes. This would appear to be borne out in the differences shown in the above illustration between 2022 and 2023. In addition there are seasonal variations to be taken into account. The eruption of Tambora provides a precedent in that the famous ‘year without a summer’ occurred 12 months after the April 1815 eruption.
Looking forward, Vinós says we should see a reversing of all the warming caused by the Hunga Tonga volcano. Heat alarmists have made hay of late, with the Financial Times‘s ‘Editorial Board’ recently pontificating that the climate threat “is now moving into uncharted territory”. But other factors are looming that could start a period of significant cooling. These include the decline in solar activity after the maximum of Solar Cycle 25 and a future ocean current shift of the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation. “These are indeed interesting times in terms of climate dynamics,” observes Vinós. Meanwhile a lively scientific discussion is to be found under the article on Dr. Curry’s site.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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All the time the Climate Activist group think establishment will say stuff like “All reputable scientists say climate change is real and happening now” or other such nonsense. —-The implication being that if you say something contrary to this then you must not be reputable. ——-You are probably a “nasty piece of work”, a “climate denier” and are “in the pay of big oil”. ———How infantile is that? It is a bit like saying you are not a proper football supporter unless you support Arsenal.
All reputable scientists do say climate change is real and happening, the ones that don’t will have to deny the ice ages.
You mean “climate” is real and happening now?
And the disreputable ones (quite a lot of them) ignore the fact that climate change is normal, and always has been, even if you look at a narrow time frame, like their life expectancy.
It is “climate” that is normal. ——“Climate Change” is a term that has come to mean changes allegedly caused by humans. I don’t mean to be too pedantic, but if climate always changes (which it does) there is no need to call it “climate change”—-“Climate” will suffice.
There’s no money in that.
Noel Roger (Jim) Dale would be out of a lucrative job – useless bugger!
What is football?
Football is “real and happening now”. ——-Are you a “denier”?
Rugby for people who can’t catch, tackle or punch their way out of a paper bag, like Mary Wanaker……
Don’t forget the ruffled hairdo. Life threatening that is.
The ladies in a house of ill-repute are all “reputable”.
Perhaps it is this sense it is meant.
Anthropogenic climate change is real. Just look at urban heat islands. Look in detail and you’ll probably see a Met Office weather station.
NASA seems fully invested in denying that this is a major climate event, I suppose they get a lot of budget from ‘monitoring climate change’? Guess where I found this: “In August 2022, a NASA report on the January 2022 eruption of Hunga Tonga–Hunga Haʻapai stated, “The huge amount of water vapor hurled into the atmosphere, as detected by NASA’s Microwave Limb Sounder, The excess water vapor injected by the Tonga volcano… could remain in the stratosphere for several years… may have a small, temporary warming effect… would not be enough to noticeably exacerbate climate change effects.”.
Judging by those charts, methinks NASA spoke too hastily…
“Uncharted” territory surely Chris. C minus for the FT.
Moderator here: Thank you, corrected, although it was in quotation marks, and attributed to the FT as you said
Those of us paying attention at the time of the volcanic eruption are in ‘I told you so’ mode – but what of the environmental effects of the Nordstream explosion, recognised as one of – if not the – worst ecological disaster in recent history: anyone looking at atmospheric impact there? Either singly or combined with Hunga Tonga, all that methane must also be having an effect.
No, no, no! Only Mankind can change the climate.
The IPCC has been playing with the meaning of words. According to them climate change means only man made climate change, natural climate change is now called climate variability. This is typical of political manipulation. Natural climate change is of course real and indisputable, It’s the ‘man made, catastrophe soon’ story that is in doubt.
One thing that gets no MSM attention is that water vapor is the principal greenhouse gas in the atmosphere
Love it: Humans think they are controlling climate by messing with “carbon” (while wrecking society) but then along comes Nature and pumps in an extra 10% of water vapour greenhouse gas almost overnight! Such stupidity and dangerous hubris.