What’s the bigger existential threat to humanity, climate change or nuclear holocaust? As Trump and Biden take different sides on this question, the Washington Post‘s Philip Bump ponders the evidence.
Donald Trump is clear that “the biggest problem we have in the whole world, it’s not global warming. It’s nuclear warming”. Meanwhile, Joe Biden has recently claimed that: “This is the last existential threat, it is climate. We have a crazy SOB like that guy Putin and others, and we always have to worry about nuclear conflict, but the existential threat to humanity is climate.” And so the battle lines were drawn. But who is correct?
In an effort to resolve this debate, Bump contacted the Centre for the Study of Existential Risk at the University of Cambridge. And one S.J. Beard – described on the centre’s website as an “emerging research leader in the transdisciplinary field of Existential Risk Studies” – told him that the best place to start is by defining what we mean by “existential”. “We tend to look at two things,” Beard said. “One of them is full-on human extinction. The other is global societal collapse.”
So with those criteria, whose existential threat does Beard view as the bigger risk: Trump’s or Biden’s? According to Bump:
“The problem is they’re just incredibly different kinds of risk,” Beard began, fairly. The difference, though, is mainly one of timelines. The damage done by climate change accrues slowly, chronically. It’s accruing now, as Beard noted. The threat of nuclear weapons is, to put it dryly, acute. In each case, there would be risks to food supplies, forced relocations, interruptions to power production and so on. It’s just that it happens very rapidly in the wake of a nuclear exchange.
“Right now, nuclear weapons are much more likely to have really global catastrophic effects than climate change,” Beard said. “But in 100 years’ time, the effects of climate change may have added up to what we would experience with a nuclear war.” …
Asked which existential threat seemed more likely to unfold, Beard demurred.
So with no firm reply I visited Mr. Beard’s organisation’s website and discovered under ‘Research’ there was no report on the risk of nuclear holocaust, but there was an extensive section on climate change that relied almost completely on the research of the economists Wagner and Weitzman, who used the IPCC’s figures to produce estimates – which were of course highly uncertain – of possible extreme temperature rises. “If we continue to pursue a medium-high emissions pathway, [the IPCC authors] estimate the probability of eventual warming of 6°C is around 10%, and of 10°C is around 3%.”
What this completely misses, however, is that at COP 28 last year, the IPCC announced that it had slashed its estimate for the Earth’s maximum warming in half, from 5-6°C. to only 2.7°C.
It’s also important to note that warming due to an increased concentration of CO2 is logarithmic. This means that as the concentration of CO2 increases the amount of warming wanes until it levels off completely and rises no further. Therefore, the risk of the Earth reaching any ‘tipping point’ for a climate catastrophe to happen is small to non-existent. Alarmist scientists claim that the modest effect of carbon dioxide will trigger other processes that cause runaway warming and ‘climate breakdown’. But this is all just guesswork of course as no such tipping point has been observed.
So, what has been the record of ‘climate related deaths’ so far?
Over the past 100 years the number of deaths from catastrophic climate events has declined by 99%.
Also, since 1988 the Earth’s warming climate has so far only resulted in a greening planet, with shrinking deserts and rising temperatures that are saving thousands of people worldwide every year from premature death. These lives saved far outweigh the deaths that have been attributed to climate change worldwide.
According to the UN, droughts over the last 50 years have averaged 13,000 deaths annually, a number that has not been increasing.
NASA’s satellite observations found that since 2003 that the number of wildfires has declined. Deaths due to wildfires have typically been extremely low. Globally, wildfires were responsible for the death of approximately 310 people from January to September 2023, making it the year with the highest number of such deaths since 1990. Over the past three decades, the global death toll due to wildfires has totalled around 2,900.
The number of famines worldwide has been in sharp decline since the 1960s.
According to NASA’s satellite data, sea levels have risen only 100.1 mm since 1993. This has come to just 4 inches over the past 30 years. And the most recent scientific research using satellite data has demonstrated that about 50% of the sea level increase on the U.S. East Coast has been attributable to subsidence and not thermal expansion of the oceans or melting glaciers and ice caps.
A new report by Allan Astrup Jensen, Research Director and CEO at the Nordic Institute of Product Sustainability and Environmental Chemistry and Toxicology in Denmark, shows that from September 2007 through September 2023, Arctic sea ice declines were near zero.
Like it or not, the warming to date has saved countless lives, and any economic losses have been small to non-existent when compared to the benefit that has resulted from the increase in crop yields etc. Ergo, Mr. Trump is 100% correct and Mr. Biden is only wrong.
Richard Burcik is the author of two short books, The DNA Lottery and Anatomy of a Lie.
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I am very concerned about our planet – it hosts some seriously deluded folk.
Packing them into space ships and shipping them to a planet of their own might be a good idea.
There are so many of them that it would be easier for the rest of us to leave earth
Dear Mr Musk,
I am a big fan and would love to help you set up a Martian colony. I don’t mind how dangerous it is: it’s got to be better than here!
Yours sincerely,
PS GET ME OUT OF HERE, ELON! I CAN’T TAKE IT ANYMORE!!!
I’m not so sure about that. The majority of people on this planet live in much more traditionally (shall we call this sensibly?) organized societies and I think these people are actually even a small (but very vocal) minority in western Europe and the USA. IMO, they’re basically just the inhabitants of (parts of) Academistan and of associated territories usually occupied by these (civil service, government, all kinds of more-or-less charitable NGOs).
No, there aren’t. Empty vessels make the most noise.
Packing them into Michael Moore’s underpants is more fitting.
At least the deluded folk are all together on DS.
Including you…..
/sarc? No matter, I’ll take it as a badge of honour
The “Planet” fills the God-shaped hole in their lives.
They include holy children with miraculous visions; haters of heretics (“climate change deniers”); the ones obsessed with angels dancing on the pins, who know all manner of data that feeds their obsession and none of that which challenges it; and those who simply cannot change the topic.
State of the planet?
The state of him!
I’m seriously starting to think that the concept of the film “The Purge” is actually a really good idea.
The Da Vinci cake?
I wonder if the French police can detain this poor creature indefinitely on the grounds of mental illness? Clearly he has gender issues and obviously his mental faculties are seriously disturbed believing as he does that the planet is about to die.
For safety’s sake it’s probably best if he is locked up and the key thrown in The Seine.
That should do it.
You mean declare him InSeine? I’ll get my coat.
It was a darn sight better than the lame Da Vinci joke above though.
I do hope the gendarmerie address her by his correct pronoun.
Whatever point this person wanted to make, he failed to make it in a rational way so the oxygen of publicity should be deliberately withheld.
I would enjoy reporting such as “…the perpetrator, through an excess of entitlement and an inability to form whole sentences, tried to make a political point by being a bloody idiot. We will not be repeating his fevered ramblings here but you may seek them out for yourself if you are bored”
On the contrary, I think this lunatic should be given maximum publicity in order to show the world what climate change derangement can do to a person.
Did you say the same about all the lockdown protests?
They were justified…..
Protests against lockdown were entirely justified, as are all protests against communism.
Dude, put down the keyboard, you’re making an ass of yourself.
Remind me, which lockdown protests involved deliberate attempts to destroy private or public property?
Narcissist Psychopaths have taken over the world ! Where do we go to escape them?
We do indeed need to “Save the Planet” – from Globalists Billionaire jabbers and Zero Carbon Nut Jobs!
I’ve often wondered if a return to old school policing is the answer. Some huge cop having a quiet word while these clowns are at their protests.
Old school policing is still in use at demonstrations if you happen to be protesting about an issue the ruling class do not approve you protesting about.
Where’s Red?
Lurking…..
Good man.
With the quiet words being punctuated with the regular application of a truncheon to the cranium
Are we now relearning why our ancestors had penal colonies? Some people are difficult to live with. So why bother?
Could we not all chip in and buy a sliver of some African state and rename it Utopia then send the annoying to live there?
It wouldn’t be hard to find a lump of Africa with zero modern infrastructure and all the terrible co2 that entails.
And invite everyone to go there so the same people can demonstrate how stable multicultural societies are
Soon we will have penis colonies
Guess who or what is going to be sent to them?
Pregnant people who chestfeed?
What is the answer to “Climate Change”? More taxes, controlling people’s movement, eroding people’s civil liberties, meat and dairy products banned, eating bugs and owning nothing and “being happy”.
Am I denying climate change? No, it’s a natural cyclical issue and it can’t be stopped by megalomaniacs or Communists. Ancient Egypt and even Mesopotamia, even the Arabian peninsula were not always dust bowls, once upon a time those places were strewn with lush green and it’s climate was less hot as it is today.
Many of those places were wrecked because of damaging agricultural practices, they can be revived if managed correctly.
Ancient Egypt and even Mesopotamia, even the Arabian peninsula were not always dust bowls, once upon a time those places were strewn with lush green and it’s climate was less hot as it is today.
Ancient Egypt was a fairly narrow strip of countryside bordering the Nile which was fertile due to the regular Nile floods and a sophisticated irrigation system. Ancient mesopotamia (land between the two rivers) relied on Tigris and Euphrates as water sources for its equally sophisticated irrigation system. The land turned back into a desert when that was finally destroyed by warfare. I don’t know anything about Arabia but the desert of northern Africa, once the the bread basked of to Roman empire, came into being after the Romans had cut down most of the trees and their irrigation systems, too, had been destroyed by foreign invaders. And by the way, by that time (during the Roman period), it was warmer in Europe than it is today,
Today, the climate is hotter than ever! is nothing but climate changer bullshit (and fakery).
It has stopped, for the last 2 decades at least…
Nothing started. 10000 years ago we had the Ice Age. The human race has been around approximately 4000. Who started the Ice Age……Fred Flintstone?
Was it Pinochet who took communists out to sea in a helicopter and then threw them out?
Just think of all that fuel and carbon dioxide! A guillotine is climate-friendly.
At least we can compost them
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=U9kw0A9_oCM
Not personally, I think he had people do it for him
Four words….
Care in the Community
It has a lot to answer for.
Methinks that’s more a case of criminal brain damage. Herostratentum, as this would be called in German (named after the guy who torched the Artemis temple in Ephesus to become famous).
I am glad to read this. I had no idea the planet was in danger from climate change until I saw cake smeared on an Old Master. Now I am aware of it I must do my bit to save the planet – by passing laws not to throw food away, for example.
Very droll!
It’s OK to damage art in museums and galleries if one is offended. Some statues are fair game too.
Your entire heritage is fair game to these people. That’s how intolerance works.
Since the Mona Lisa is obviously in a glass booth, it was never in danger.
Pointless then……
Aw… Bless.
This illustrates the danger of believing official hype based on faulty modelling ‘data’ instead of considering the actual data which tells a completely different story on climate.
It probably illustrates the danger of allowing intellectuals a prominent place in society. Ordinary people would not come to these conclusions on their own.
No.. they will just believe the most convincing voice (in their uninformed view)
Like the Brexiteers believed Boris and Russians believe Putin..
A remainer, a climate nut job, and a Putin hater.
Shall we add Trump to that list?
Any other confessions for us?
I can only assume that the chosen pen name of Lord Snotty is based upon a peculiar and misplaced sense of entitlement consequent to a repalcemenr of brain cells by mucus.
The brexiteers paid no heed to any establishment figure, pro or con. Hence the post-Brexit hysteria. Mass immigration, loss of sovereignty and a political class divorced from ordinary problems in society were the very clearly understood issues that led to the vote.
‘Climate nut job’
Well that really narrows the field down
If he ever faces prosecution for anything the judge will let him off for being perfectly on-narrative. The police will issue an apology for having interrupted his important work and politicians will make speeches applauding his bravery.
And he will receive an enormous sum by way of compensation for having been arrested in the first place.
Reporting these days is really in decline. No details whatsoever, saving the planet just doesn’t seem plausible to me. I want to know how much this cake cost, where did he purchase it, what type of gateau was it, he had taken a bite, was he enjoying it before hurling it and an unspecified number of rose petals at the painting, what was the significance of the rose petals and was this Jackal character part of a group or an independent? Should we be fearful of copycat attempts here in the UK, should all cakes, especially gateau only be sold to people with full I.D and finally, was he vaccinated and if so why wasn’t this mentioned?
Beat me to it, A p; I was just logging in to ask these important questions.
We need to know.
Who was pushing the chair?
No doubt it was James Hanson!
And was the person pushing the chair triple-jabbed?
From a sustainability point of view, just how much of the Black Forest was sacrificed for this stunt?
“In the primitive 20th century, rich elites at what was called ‘Berni Inns’ demolished the entire Black Forest to make one gateau. The Great Reset was entirely necessary to save the plant…”
Ce n’est pas un gâteau.
Leonardo da Vinci created a design for a flying machine, so is fully culpable for the climate catastrophe that is engulfing the world; and the fact that he painted a transwoman (Mona Lisa) is not enough to get him off the hook. As for Mona Lisa, their family was surely involved in the slave trade, so a worthy target for any cake wielding frog.
Him? Did you just misgender this plucky hero?
Da Vinci a “Plucky Hero” – faint praise if ever I heard it!
Mmmmmmm… cake!
French Police just announced it was treating the matter as trifling
Good god, it appears there were three of them
~Groan~
If he’d done that over here, some twat in the Guardian (or the Times) would have called it ‘a performance art piece’, gave him a grant and suggested he be awarded the Turner Prize.
I quite fancy him/she/it
Note to me. Do not stay out in the midday sun when mixing alcohol and medication
Let’s hope he gets his just desserts.
This deserves more upvotes!
The ice-ing is melting!
We’re all doomed!
At least he didn’t blame Putin!! But seriously folks, people like him should be in a mental home. There are far too many crazies allowed to do what they want in the name of climate change or some other government funded agenda they want to impose on us.
Proof, if proof were needed, that environmentalism is nihilistic.
This was an attempt at destruction for the sake of destruction of a popular artwork because it is popular, of a recognised great piece of art because it is recognised as great.
In some lowbrow and fatuous protest, what was achieved and in France a nation by European standards of low fossil fuel use, and even if one believes the premise of man made CO2 blah, blah.
These witless useless idiots cannot bring themselves to bother to make protest in perhaps a country which really does contribute to global emissions of said ‘poison gas’. It therefore follows, by not making any attempt to protest in Peking say. The why should the wider public take the slightest bit of notice – here?
A gateau, not a bun, or a cake but a gateau, did they bring it in.in one of those polystyrene boxes I wonder. I wonder how long they spent selecting said Gateau, and then purchasing it after all in France there are so many gateux to choose from. Obviously one of the middle class echo warriors, who else would gateau a work of art? The fact that the individual concerned has no respect for artworks produced in very different times, painted with such expertise and with non of the tools, technology, paints etc available these days. A great masters work wantonly defaced by an ugly, entitled individual with a gateaux
They should exhibit the glass plate and call it “Moaner Nutter”.
It’ll probably win the Turner Prize!
There’s a better word for left wing violence: terrorism. If climate nutjobs go within spitting distance of an oil depot, lethal force should be used against them, given the potential for disaster if they commit sabotage.
As for the cake-throwing moron, they should do unto him what was done to the lady who is claimed to have said ‘Let them eat cake!’
Mona Lisa is not the world’s best known painting. Surely Gilbert Shelton’s version of Douanier Rousseau’s ‘Sleeping Gypsy’ featuring Fat Freddy and his Cat is the world’s best known painting?
”…. far Left criminal damage is becoming a major problem.”
But it wouldn’t be if only our police forces showed their teeth (if they have any left). These are dimwitted, ignorant, arrogant, strutting and posturing NOWTS. One sniff of the Plod’s truncheon and they’d be off.
Oh! but Plod isn’t supposed to scare them off with his truncheon, is he? They might suffer irreparable psychological damage.
Good grief, these people are pathetic, and they’re being enabled by our law enforcers.