• Login
  • Register
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In
The Daily Sceptic
No Result
View All Result

Gulf Stream Collapse Scare Debunked by Royal Society

by Chris Morrison
14 November 2023 7:00 AM

One of the more unforgivable climate scares foisted on the public by green fanatics is the suggestion that the Gulf Stream is about to break down, plunging the northern hemisphere into a new ice age. Last July, both the Guardian and the BBC reported that the Gulf Stream could collapse by 2025, bringing catastrophic climate impacts. All of this fearmongering relies on models, and these have also led the UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) to forecast it is “very likely” that the entire system of North Atlantic currents will weaken in the near future. Needless to say, these models have an impressively poor track record, and this has been revealed in a recent paper published by the Royal Society. “If these models cannot reproduce past variation, why should we be so confident about their ability to predict the future,” ask the scientific authors.

The Gulf Stream is part of a wider system of currents known as the Atlantic Meridional Overturing Circulation (AMOC). By bringing warmer waters from the south, it is estimated to increase coastal area temperatures in parts of the northern hemisphere by up to 5°C. The collapse of the AMOC was behind the arrival of a new ice age in the 2004 Hollywood sci-fi blockbuster The Day After Tomorrow. It has been a firm favourite of climate alarmists ever since. Of course, the political push towards the collectivist Net Zero project is behind much of the copy. Writing his Gulf Stream collapse nonsense last July, Guardian Environment Editor Damian Carrington said the prospect of an AMOC collapse was extremely concerning, “and should spur rapid cuts in carbon emissions”.

The Royal Society authors find that the climate models that are stuck with an assumption that humans can and do control the AMOC have been wrong for decades. Neither past nor current models are successful in representing actual AMOC observational data. They go on to add: “If it is not possible to reconcile climate models and observations of the AMOC in the historical period, then we believe the statement about future confidence about AMOC evolution should be revised. Low confidence in the past should mean lower confidence in the future.”

Many of the scare tactics employed by mainstream media and green activists are given weight by the IPCC’s suggestion that the AMOC will weaken in future as “very likely”. But the authors note the models cannot reproduce past variations, causing them rightly to ask why we should be confident about their ability to predict the future. The challenge for the AMOC  community is either to reconcile the differences between climate models and observations or to better understand the reasons for deviation. “We believe that progress needs to be made in understanding why models do not reproduce past AMOC variability and that this is the key to having confidence in the future evolution of this key climate variable,” they state.

Fine words, but in the meantime we are stuck with climate models that are patently unfit for purpose, except, of course, for the vital political work of scaring populations into widespread Net Zero economic and societal compliance.

The use of climate models to promote the collapse of the Gulf Stream is one of the more egregious corruptions of science that is being used to support political aims. A recent report from Clintel found that IPCC models use input data that suggest future global temperatures would rise by up to 4°C in less than 80 years. This despite the organisation stating such a possibility is of “low likelihood”. In the last 25 years, global temperatures have risen barely 0.2°C. Over 40% of IPCC climate impact statements arise from the improbable temperatures ‘pathways’, rising to over 50% in the wider scientific literature. It is likely that this figure is much higher in the mainstream media that has a habit of reporting uncritically on the most obvious clickbait material.

None of this is good for the scientific process. The science writer Roger Pielke Jnr. is worried, noting recently that an overtly partisan approach may be compromising public trust and confidence and making the practice of science much more political. Ignoring a substantial body of empirical data and real world experience indicates that the politicisation of science quickly turns pathological for science and society alike. “The consequences include an overall loss of trust in institutions of science which is replaced with determinations of trust based on identity,” he observed.

The uncharitable might conclude that with Covid and climate, the reputations of media organisations like the Guardian and the BBC are in the scientific dustbin anyway. But the increasingly evident loss of trust in a number of science disciplines is an unfolding tragedy that will have serious societal consequences. Activists along for the well-funded green ride will not care, but genuine scientists should be concerned.

Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.

Tags: Climate AlarmismClimate changeGlobal WarmingGulf streamRoyal Society

Donate

We depend on your donations to keep this site going. Please give what you can.

Donate Today

Comment on this Article

You’ll need to set up an account to comment if you don’t already have one. We ask for a minimum donation of £5 if you'd like to make a comment or post in our Forums.

Sign Up
Previous Post

News Round-Up

Next Post

SNP Quietly Downgrades Claim that Scotland Has 25% of Europe’s Offshore Wind Potential to Just 7%

Subscribe
Login
Notify of
Please log in to comment

To join in with the discussion please make a donation to The Daily Sceptic.

Profanity and abuse will be removed and may lead to a permanent ban.

15 Comments
Oldest
Newest Most Voted
Inline Feedbacks
View all comments
huxleypiggles
huxleypiggles
1 year ago

Poor old ‘Peter Hitches.’

13
-2
ekathulium
ekathulium
1 year ago
Reply to  huxleypiggles

Yep he´s right on so many things but so completely wrong on drugs.
The cons are right on this issue.

9
-27
AethelredTheReadier
AethelredTheReadier
1 year ago
Reply to  ekathulium

The thing is I don’t think Peter Hitchens has ever taken cannabis. He’s just read the scare stories and they sound ridiculous. He drinks wine and seem to be totally cognitively dissonant on the fact that alcohol is a substance which has a long history of associated violence. Apart from that, he seems like a kind man.

Last edited 1 year ago by AethelredTheReadier
22
-18
wokeman
wokeman
1 year ago

Peter Hitchens almost a national treasure if such things even exist.

35
-1
Baldrick
Baldrick
1 year ago

Why one would want to impose this on them-selves voluntarily is beyond me. Grim. But Peter Hitchens was a big lockdown sceptic, and right in the middle of our darkest hour- the start of 2021. Well it felt like our darkest hour to me.

62
0
porgycorgy
porgycorgy
1 year ago

I’ve looked it up, I’ve thought about it…. but I still don’t understand the term ‘tractor porn’. I suppose there is no hope for me.

16
0
lymeswold
lymeswold
1 year ago
Reply to  porgycorgy

Agreed. The Urban Dictionary definition “Still or moving images of farm machinery, often viewed in an obsessively-voyeuristic manner. Tractor porn is often associated with the chronic inability to achieve any set task or other meaningful productive output in one’s work day.” doesn’t really cut it.

Can somebody kindly explain it, or at least give a hint, in an acceptable manner?

1
0
Matt Dalby
Matt Dalby
1 year ago
Reply to  lymeswold

He claimed that he’d ended up on a porn site while looking for pictures of tractors. He’d be useful in a smoky room because he’s probably now an ex tractor fan

7
0
JXB
JXB
1 year ago

Yawn.

8
-4

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

DONATE

PODCAST

Episode 36 of the Sceptic: Karl Williams on Starmer’s Phoney Immigration Crackdown, Dan Hitchens on the Assisted Suicide Bill and Tom Jones on Reform’s Local Council Challenge

by Richard Eldred
16 May 2025
0

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

22 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

22 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

UK Welcomes South African Activist Who Chants About Killing White Farmers But Excludes French Philosopher Concerned About Demographic Change

22 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22 May 2025
by Steven Tucker

Migrant Boat Forces Dunkirk Flotilla to Divert

21 May 2025
by Will Jones

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

27

News Round-Up

25

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22

Starmer Has No Intention of Cutting Immigration

16

Migrant Boat Forces Dunkirk Flotilla to Divert

21

Starmer Has No Intention of Cutting Immigration

22 May 2025
by Joe Baron

UK Welcomes South African Activist Who Chants About Killing White Farmers But Excludes French Philosopher Concerned About Demographic Change

22 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

22 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22 May 2025
by Steven Tucker

How the Deep State Went Viral 

21 May 2025
by Debbie Lerman

POSTS BY DATE

November 2023
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930  
« Oct   Dec »

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union

NEWSLETTER

View today’s newsletter

To receive our latest news in the form of a daily email, enter your details here:

POSTS BY DATE

November 2023
M T W T F S S
 12345
6789101112
13141516171819
20212223242526
27282930  
« Oct   Dec »

DONATE

LISTED ARTICLES

  • Most Read
  • Most Commented
  • Editor’s Picks

News Round-Up

22 May 2025
by Richard Eldred

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

22 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

UK Welcomes South African Activist Who Chants About Killing White Farmers But Excludes French Philosopher Concerned About Demographic Change

22 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22 May 2025
by Steven Tucker

Migrant Boat Forces Dunkirk Flotilla to Divert

21 May 2025
by Will Jones

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

27

News Round-Up

25

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22

Starmer Has No Intention of Cutting Immigration

16

Migrant Boat Forces Dunkirk Flotilla to Divert

21

Starmer Has No Intention of Cutting Immigration

22 May 2025
by Joe Baron

UK Welcomes South African Activist Who Chants About Killing White Farmers But Excludes French Philosopher Concerned About Demographic Change

22 May 2025
by C.J. Strachan

The BBC’s Mark Poynting Shows How to Spread Climate Alarm

22 May 2025
by Chris Morrison

If Lush’s Aim of Employing Left-Wing Activists Isn’t Against the Law it Should Be

22 May 2025
by Steven Tucker

How the Deep State Went Viral 

21 May 2025
by Debbie Lerman

SOCIAL LINKS

Free Speech Union
  • Home
  • About us
  • Donate
  • Privacy Policy

Facebook

  • X

Instagram

RSS

Subscribe to our newsletter

© Skeptics Ltd.

Welcome Back!

Login to your account below

Forgotten Password? Sign Up

Create New Account!

Fill the forms below to register

All fields are required. Log In

Retrieve your password

Please enter your username or email address to reset your password.

Log In
No Result
View All Result
  • Articles
  • About
  • Archive
    • ARCHIVE
    • NEWS ROUND-UPS
  • Podcasts
  • Newsletter
  • Premium
  • Donate
  • Log In

© Skeptics Ltd.

wpDiscuz
You are going to send email to

Move Comment
Perfecty
Do you wish to receive notifications of new articles?
Notifications preferences