There have been a number of unusual climate patterns around the Earth this year and some scientists are making excellent progress in providing some reasonable explanations. The distinguished climate scientist Dr. Judith Curry has come up with some interesting answers by examining recent changes in heat balances at both the top of the atmosphere and the internal flows driven by the air and ocean currents at the surface. In addition she has considered contributions made by the switch from El Nino to La Nina, the Hunga Tonga underwater volcanic eruption and changes in atmospheric aerosols caused by ships using less polluting fuels. Any increase in the greenhouse effect from increasing carbon dioxide “is lost in the noise”, she states.
This latter conclusion, of course, will mean that Curry’s excellent work will be ignored in the mainstream media, which largely follow the view of the UN’s IPCC that most climate change is caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Curry’s research is a detailed piece of scientific work, and the full paper can be seen here. I shall try to highlight some of the most significant features, showing how scientists can harness the power of observation to add to their knowledge about how the chaotic and non-linear atmosphere actually operates.
In Curry’s view, the recent warming in spring/summer 2023 is associated with a spike in heat flows at the top of the atmosphere. The warming is said to reflect an increase in incoming shortwave radiation – essentially the sun is a bit brighter – a decrease in high level cloudiness, the impact of reduced ship sulphate aerosols, reduced snow and ice extent and the Hunga Tonga eruption that propelled 13% extra water vapour into the stratosphere.
At the surface, there was anomalous sunlight heating in the mid-latitudes of the Northern Hemisphere, and again Curry notes the involvement of reduced sulphate particles from ship fuel. The eastern North Atlantic is said to have warmed from anomalously low turbulent heat flows, reflecting weak surface winds particularly in the Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico. In the mid/high latitudes of the Southern Hemisphere oceans, there was strong cooling from surface turbulent flows that are associated with strong wind speeds.
Curry provides a dispassionate analysis of some of the anomalies, or departure from recently recorded norms, in stark contrast to the hysterical reporting found in mainstream media. Earlier this month, the BBC reported that ocean heat records were broken, “with grim implications for the planet”. Dr. Matt Frost from the Plymouth Marine Lab warned that “we are putting oceans under more stress than we have done at any point in history”.
Curry points out that current warming in the North Atlantic “is comparable to changes over consecutive three-month periods during the winter/spring seasons of 1983, 1987, 1989 and 2010”. The high this time around was boosted from a relatively warm initial start. Each of these past warmings was followed by cooling of an approximately equal magnitude within the next 6-24 months, resulting in relatively small net changes in sea surface temperatures and upper ocean heat content.
Current North Atlantic sea temperature anomalies occurred in an ‘arc’ pattern and this is a signature of natural variability. Two more extreme natural variations are also identified by Curry. Around 1970, there was strong warming followed by a large sea surface temperature drop in 1971 that marked the beginning of lengthy period of cool conditions and weak hurricane activity. During 1994-95, the Atlantic multi-decadal oscillation shifted to a warm phase and this sea current boosted surface temperatures around the arc at the time. This introduced a period of warmer conditions that “in some respects” remains to the present day.
As the Daily Sceptic has noted, the recent spate of climatic anomalies has provided climate hysterics with a field day. None more so than those commenting on Antarctica where Curry confirms there was low surface sea ice during the current winter. Clive Cookson of the Financial Times jumped to the conclusion that the continent “faces a catastrophic cascade of extreme environmental events… that will affect climate around the world”. Curry points out that in 2023, a different wind pattern has been in play, bringing strong winds from the north that are breaking up and compressing the sea ice against the continent.
Meanwhile, Curry notes that Arctic sea ice is healthy – the extent for July was only the 12th lowest in the satellite record. Last month’s Greenland mass ice sheet balance – annual snow accumulation minus melt – was above average relative to 1980-2010.
There are many reasons why the work of climate scientists such as Judith Curry never get picked up in the mainstream media. Much of what she describes is natural variation and has been observed before in the climatic record. But the Net Zero political project demands a simple message from scientists – it’s all down to human-caused CO2. As I have noted before, this closes off vast areas of science for investigation or debate for fear of opening a Pandora’s Box.
Chris Morrison is the Daily Sceptic’s Environment Editor.
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We can shout it from the rooftops, but no-one hears us…
In the UK we have the monumental challenge that our response to all this is set by the climate change act. To get any sort of change in our net-zero response will mean that the Climate Change Act needs to be rescinded or radically amended, that is a huge ask in the current febrile atmosphere surrounding climate change. It will not be pleasant but IMO whet the UK needs now is a very cold winter, with a shortage of heating oil, gas, petrol and diesel and a series of disruptive power cuts.
I feel it needs a serious hit if people are going to wake up and push back against sleep walking into net-zero immiseration.
There are plenty of other Acts which are flouted every day – free speech, anyone? – so I don’t see the need to stick so rigidly to the CCA, other than the usual nefarious financial incentives, of course.
Those with their noses in the climate trough will demand we stick rigidly with the CCA and the ‘legally binding’ targets, but won’t give two hoots to free speech as that’s exactly what they fear. They don’t want the truth coming out.
Those with a reasonable memory will remember the winters after the last warming periods of 1983, 1987, 1989, 2010, cold is a mild description.
Going further back it was snowing when I was born in early May 1947 and a friend and I rode our bikes across a frozen River Thames at Hampton Court in the winter of 1963.
Since Net Zero was waved through parliament with no questions asked it is unlikely that climate policies will be reversed. But a severe dose of reality might do the trick and eventually give the eco socialists no choice. When the astronomical cost and the missing technology required for this absurdity eventually slaps them in the face and the public see their freedoms vanish and their standard of living plummet let us see who it is that backs down. Politicians ride along on the wind. But winds turn, and when that wind is blowing full in your face and it seems you are like the “Bounty” trying to navigate around Cape Horn, then it isn’t a “delightful passage”. Just as Captain Bligh had to order the crew of the Bounty to make way for the Cape of Good Hope, so too might the government reverse course.
People like Curry have opened up their mouths way too late.
Therefore and now, the racket could get itself firmly established and morph into The Big Cult.
And one simply cannot reason with cult members.
Cults can and will only end in and with a catastrophe, as they become ever more absurd and harmful.
Judith Curry has been speaking about this stuff for many years. You have to also remember that there is big pressure from the Pretend to Save the Planet establishment that manufactured the “consensus”, and the likes of Curry have all the time to fight this rearguard action against the powerful forces of “Sustainable Development” Politics.
There is no climate crisis.
$cientism is not real science.
$cientism is the religion of the corrupt, bribed, deluded and evil as was Rona.
What the average person gets from it I have no idea. Maybe the warm feeling of belonging to the Church of the Corrupted $cience.
The “scientists” get a lot of research money.- that is the main driver of the scam.
Indeed. Who gives these scientists this “research” money, and why? It’s a bit like “covid” – the politicians say they are following the science but the scientists seem to be controlled or influenced by the state. Whose hand is up whose backside?
And unbelievably, the actual churches support this scam.
I note that ongoing geoengineering activity isn’t included in Dr Curry’s assessment, that must be having an effect too. They’ve been at it 24/7 for days around here again, really effing annoying.
If you want to get your own way in an argument or discussion you highlight only the bits of information that would seem to indicate that what you say is all ultimate truth. You never mention uncertainties or any facts or pieces of information that don’t support your argument. It is a bit like that old TV quiz show from the 70’s “Call My Bluff”, where contestants would read out different meanings of words in a way that would convince others that theirs was the true meaning and other contestants had to choose which was the correct version. ———In the climate change argument, proponents of global warming do exactly the same thing. The only difference is that in the TV quiz show the contestants knew it was only a game. But in the climate wars, it is much more than a game. It is a war. It is a war on an unsuspecting public who if they are to have their cars, their flights, and their central heating taken away, and their standard of living lowered, would prefer to have it done based on what is true, not on what may only be a smidgeon of the truth.— The self appointed providers of truth at the IPCC make statements of certainty where there are none. They do so because they want to win the particular argument that humans are causing dangerous changes to climate. But although you never know it from watching mainstream media like BBC and SKY news, there are very many scientists calling their bluff. One of those is Judith Curry and her recent book “Climate Uncertainty and Risk” calls it very well. ——“Climate Change” is not the black and white issue that UN Bureaucrats standing at a podium would have us all believe. There is HUGE uncertainty. So when the UN IPCC say “Doubt has been eliminated” they are calling our Bluff.
The Fascists pushing the “Climate Crisis” narrative in the UN, WEF, EU, USA and UK aren’t interested in FACTS or debate.
Any opinion or commentary which does not fit the views of the political elite are routinely dismissed or suppressed. This applies on technical issues as well as political ones.
That of course does not disprove climate change, but it does add some very important nuance to the mix.
Climate has always changed.
Always will.
Just be glad that virtually every change in a Generation has been beneficial.
And bugger all to do with fossil fuels.
A good summary, Chris.
Well done.
Then there is this:
“14 American cities have set a “target” to comply with the World Economic Forum’s (WEF) green agenda goals by banning meat, dairy, and private car ownership by 2030.”
The U.S. cities have formed a coalition called the “C40 Cities Climate Leadership Group” (C40). The C40 has established an “ambitious target” to meet the WEF’s goals by the year 2030. To fulfill the “target,” the C40 Cities have pledged that their residents will comply with the following list of mandatory rules:
“0 kg [of] meat consumption”
“0 kg [of] dairy consumption”
“3 new clothing items per person per year”
“0 private vehicles” owned
“1 short-haul return flight (less than 1500 km) every 3 years per person”
The C40 Cities’ dystopian goals can be found in its “The Future of Urban Consumption in a 1.5°C World” report.
https://slaynews.com/news/14-us-cities-ban-meat-dairy-private-cars-2030/
I think that Mayor Khan in London is a member of this ‘C40 Cities Gang’ so Londoners should expect yet more ‘stuff’ along these lines from him.