In a recent article for the Telegraph, economist Steve Davies makes a fascinating prediction: over the next decade, re-joining the EU will become a right-wing or even far-right cause, while maintaining close links with the US will become a left-wing cause.
What on earth? We all know that people on the right much more likely to vote Leave in the EU referendum, while their counterparts on the left were much more likely to vote Remain. In fact, 94% of the MPs who backed Leave were from the Tories or the DUP, while 61% of those who backed Remain were from Labour, the SNP or other left-liberal parties.
Hear the man out! Davies’ argument is quite interesting. He notes that “across Europe, the trend is towards nationalist populism and ever harsher policies on immigration”. Meanwhile, the British right is increasingly defined by “opposition to a kind of cultural politics that originates in the US”, by which he means wokeness.
So as Europe becomes associated with immigration restrictionism, and the US becomes associated with things like Black Lives Matter and drag queen story hour, the British right will gradually shift their allegiance from the latter to the former.
As Davies points out, this wouldn’t be the first time there has been a switch of this kind. Back in 1983, it was Margaret Thatcher and the Conservatives who championed European integration, while Labour campaigned on leaving the European Economic Community (as it was then known). “Anti-EEC Conservatives were a small and scattered remnant,” writes Davies, “rather like today’s Lexiteers.”
Will he be proven right? As with any political forecast, it depends on many things, like who wins the next US election. But I think there’s a decent chance he will.
It’s widely agreed that the Government has made a hash of Brexit, failing to deliver on most of the potential upsides. This is particular true when it comes to immigration. Of course, reducing immigration wasn’t the only reason people voted Leave, but it was an important reason. And yet since the referendum, net migration to the UK has more than doubled! It’s hardly surprising, then, that a solid majority now says Britain was “wrong” to leave the EU.
If thanks to shoddy implementation and obscuration by the civil service, Brexit fails to live up to expectations – as seems likely – future conservative politicians may not want to be associated with it. And there could be an opening for a national populist pushing a “Britain as part of European civilisation” message.
One might object that Eurocrats – the senior politicians and bureaucrats who wield power in Brussels – would never let their beloved project get hijacked by a basket of deplorable national populists.
Yet Davies has an answer to this. He argues that if the EU wants to survive, it will have to create a real demos, “and the easiest way to do that is to emphasise a common European identity that is Christian (not Muslim or Jewish), ‘white’ (not African or Middle Eastern) and not American or Russian”. I’m not saying this is definitely going to happen, but I wouldn’t rule it out.
The main flaw in Davies’ prediction is probably the timescale. He talks about a shift happening “over the next decade” – which sounds a bit too soon to me. But it’s possible that in fifteen or twenty years, the right-wing of British politics will favour European integration.
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An issue with the concept put forward in the article is that the USA is experiencing a major, and growing, backlash to wokeness, the Supreme Court is no longer a liberal vessel to sidestep the Constitution andm if someone like Ron DeSantis becomes President, there’s going to be a serious war on the left wing capture of society. Even without a DeSantis, there’s significant movement of people in the USA, as a ‘Great Sort’ takes place: blue blue states are becoming more blue and red states more red. Unfortunately, this going to happen just as the idiot British public votes in a Labour government that will be even worse than the Tory one, rather than vote out both parties (along with the LibDems and SNP!)
Yes, there’s a lot of extreme crap coming from the US Dems and their allies, but also stiffer resistance that is in the mainstream.
I see no evidence states are becoming more red, quite the opposite in fact. Rich democrats are fleeing California and New York in large numbers and guess where they are heading? Texas and Florida.
And in the US the President has little power to move the country left or right, if you want to do that you have to start at the bottom in the institutions.
I will NEVER support integration with the EU.
NEVER.
I agree. We should be as completely independent as possible. Why does it have to be a binary choice between the US and the EU?
I know its hard to get your head around.. but YUK controls both US and EU out of the City of London.. and its been that way for a very long time.. The whole thing is a facade..
YUK?
UK.. yuk.. is what its turned into..
It doesn’t but they like to present you with a dialectical choice of red v blue, both of which they control. The best choice is a sovereign nation where the people decide case by case how things are run, they will present a rather childish choice as either in the EU or have nothing to do with them (as they did during Brexit).
Don’t blame you, hux. As I said elsewhere, where were the riots after that Syrian psycho stabbed multiple people in France recently, mostly little preschoolers? But when the perpetrator isn’t Muslim but the victim is then Bedlam ensues. What does that tell you? No signs of it easing off any time soon either;
”Immigration in France is leading to street riots, Viktor Marsai, an expert from the Hungarian Migration Research Institute, told M1 News on Sunday afternoon.
“In France, in recent decades, there have been several street riots like the current one, mostly involving young people from immigrant backgrounds who are not integrated into society, do not go to school, have no job, and seek their rights via street demonstrations,” said Marsai.
He added that the integration of second- and third-generation immigrants is also difficult and that those who have arrived in recent years are even more challenging. According to Marsai, the recurrent street riots in France show what a big problem migration is and what a challenge it is to socially integrate these migrants into French society.
Asked what the EU Commission’s proposed mandatory migrant quota would entail, the expert said: “If the plan is implemented, the number of refugee applications and procedures at the EU’s external borders will increase sharply.”
Last year already, there were more than a quarter of a million illegal entry attempts at Hungary’s southern border, which means more than 100,000 illegal migrants. EU member states are not able to handle this many asylum procedures, Viktor Marsai told the M1 news channel.”
https://rmx.news/crime/migration-is-the-key-factor-behind-widespread-rioting-in-france-says-hungarian-expert/
Thanks Mogs
With you there, HP. That way lies madness, impoverishment, famine, ill-health and enslavement to the power of 10.
Damn right Aethelred
Following a bit of a hiccup in 1066 the British largely stayed out of Europe for the next thousand years. Obviously we had to manage the French colonies to the 15th century but we then left them to their own devices although they tended to make a mess of things. So, with the French not capable of letting one century pass without causing an upset we were inevitably called on a regular basis to knock some heads together to restore order.
Having defeated one horrific attempt at a pan European state it would have been reasonable to assume that we wouldn’t wander blithely and voluntarily into another one twenty five years later but we did. Led by another pale haired, lying, treasonous barsteward called Ted, the country was tricked into signing up for the EEC.
After fifty years of meddling, interference, lying, corruption and theft the sensible people of this country said “enough” and defying their would-be masters, walked away.
Unfortunately, the democracy we thought we had was buried with the Leave vote and our fake, mediocre but still treasonous Executive decided that we should rejoin the ‘help yourself when you can, to as much as you can,’ wholly undemocratic and frankly illegal EU and toute suite.
To even suggest that Britain’s best interests lie in a failing EU state is complete madness and does nobody any favours, least of all the poor bloody tommies.
For this country to become a success once more we need to remain completely and utterly OUTSIDE anything remotely resembling a European state. We work best when we work alone. And this time we will not step across the channel to perform head-banging routines when the French and Germans decide to have another of their petulant and murderous tiffs.
Well it doesn’t look like the Britain First campaign has made any difference. I feel really bad for the people of Weathersfield, Essex, as they’ve got 1,700 migrants moving in up the road imminently;
”The migrant camp is expected to hold up to 1,700 migrants, potentially threatening the way of life of the town of Wethersfield, which only has a native population of around 700. Currently, the former air base is home to around 18 military families.
Raising concerns about the impact on local society, Nick Godley of the campaign group Wethersfield Protests, said: “I think if you put the thick end of 2,000 people up on the base with no money and nothing to do, whoever they were – even if they were trainee vicars – I think you could well have problems.
“It’s only human nature if people get bored they start looking for something to do and that something to do with a proportion of people, whoever they are, may well involve some sort of mischief.”
So far this year, over 10,000 illegals have crossed the English Channel, adding to the approximately hundred thousand that have broken into Britain over the past three years.”
https://www.breitbart.com/europe/2023/07/02/military-families-given-just-one-week-to-leave-homes-to-make-room-for-migrants/
Look across the channel. The plan for France is progressing nicely for the globalists.. I wonder what’s in store for the UK with the importation of thousands of military age young men.. All here to carry out good works no doubt!
Yep, I’m sure they’re all engineers, doctors, architects and the like. They just lost their papers to prove it and also seemed to have forgotten to pack even an overnight bag ( by the looks of many photos/vids ), and I guess it’s so dangerous from whence they come that they also forget their wives/mothers/sisters/daughters/kids too.
The EU is as corrupt and useless as the day is long. They’ve just replaced one criminal commissioner Ursula von der Liar with another previously convicted criminal Christine (brown envelope) Lagarde. I suppose that’s to give a sense of ‘continuity’ in said institution..
Isn’t Ursula van de Leyen still President of the European Commission? I’m waiting for her arrest on corruption charges based on her secret communications with Mr Bourla, CEO of Pfizer, regarding the purchase of mRNA injections. But I was assuming I was going to have to wait a very long time.
Whisperings about Lagarde at the moment Chris.. oh.. and I totally agree with you on the Bourla affair. She was no better as the Defence Secretary in Germany.. fingers in as many pies as possible..
I should have added.. de Leyen and the Bourla affair..
I’m posting a link in this EU article because I think its absolutely vital that people in the UK know what’s really happening in France. The violent rioting is well planned and executed, but don’t be fooled, this is certainly not a citizens revolution.. Oh no.. far from it.
Please read the article in the link provided. Its in French, but any online translator will work with it.
https://profession-gendarme.com/appel-aux-resistants/
Yeah but Will, when you gonna bring George L back? Or will you be having another reinvention when you get fed up with this name soon?
Eh? Eh? Eh? 
Mog.. no tricks as far as I’m concerned. No reinventions. In my own defence I mentioned George when I first had to take on this monica..
It was nothing more sinister than donations that mixed up that’s all. Sorry.. nowt exciting, and for some reason my old wordpress avatar has been applied..
Strange times indeed, but do not fear, the real George L will be back around next donation time.. I hope!
I can’t stand undercover work, especially when you have to broadcast it to 77th Brigade.. haha
I don’t believe the EU will exist in 15 years time, unless it seizes totalitarian control over its members.
I think its pretty much there on the control front..
I’m interested by the idea that net migration has doubled since leaving the EU – how do we know? Before Brexit, when it came to migration from the EU, did the government actually keep any records?
Only read the headline not the full article.
My first thought was ON NO – it would be a retrograde step and not what we voted for.
As a long-term believer in the unity of Europe and favouring the concept I nevertheless voted for Brexit because of the democratic deficit and covert nationalism evidenced by the French and Germans. If the EU was to reform itself into a truly democratic, liberal confederation I can see Mr Daivies opinion gaining traction
That wasn’t why it was set up. In fact there would be no reason to set up the EU if all you wanted was free trade and democracy, countries could do that without an organisation to “manage” them.
Every nation operates “immigration restictionism”. They all have limits, rules & regulations on who can come in and what benefits and rights they have dependent on citizenship. As for the Cons making a “hash” of Brexit as immigration has increased that isn’t some natural phenomenon, it is govt policy to increase the number of visas for those wishing to come here. How could it be anything else? This isn’t “shoddy implementation” of Cons policy, the govt has lowered the bar to allow more people in.