On June 6th, Ukraine’s Kakhovka dam was destroyed, unleashing vast quantities of water that are now flooding downstream areas. The question, as in the case of the Nord Stream sabotage, is whodunnit?
The potential culprits are the two warring parties, Ukraine and Russia, each of whom has already blamed the other. There’s also the possibility that the dam failed on its own due to damage sustained during the war.
Let’s consider that possibility first. Satellite imagery shows that a section of the road fell into the water on June 2nd, which suggests the dam may have been deteriorating for some time. Indeed, it was damaged twice in November by shelling and/or controlled explosions, with each side blaming the other as usual. In addition, the water level was at a 30-year high.
However, “local residents reported on social media that they heard a huge explosion around the time the dam was breached”, according to the New York Times, which all but proves the dam did not simply fail on its own.
Was it Russia? Unlike with the Nord Stream sabotage, Russia did have a plausible motive: to thwart a Ukrainian counter-offensive in the Kherson region. And even if that seems tenuous, Russia could always benefit from a false flag attack. Back in October, Zelensky accused of Russia of plotting to blow up the dam.
There’s also precedent: Russia has been bombing Ukraine’s infrastructure for months and has already destroyed several other dams – though to my knowledge it hasn’t previously denied responsibility for doing so.
What’s more, “engineering and munitions experts” quoted in the New York Times said that “an attack from outside the dam” was “less plausible” than an “internal explosion” – which points the finger at Russia, since they were in control of the dam. However, the experts did not completely rule out an external attack.
Yet there are reasons to doubt Russian culpability.
According to experts quoted in a Moscow Times article last October, “blowing the dam would not give Russia any significant military advantages and would jeopardize water supplies to Russian-controlled areas”. The article quoted Michael Kofman as saying that destroying the dam “would mean Russia essentially blowing its own foot off”.
Indeed, the dam provided water for the North Crimean Canal – the source of around 85% of Crimea’s water. Ukraine had blocked the canal in 2014 following Russia’s annexation of Crimea, but it was reopened by Russian forces in the early weeks of the war.
Some people claim that restoring Crimea’s water supply was a major reason why Putin launched his invasion. Russia had accused Ukraine of “genocide” for blocking the canal, and Crimea’s “water crisis” was seen as an “impossible problem for Putin”. Given all this, it seems difficult to believe that Russia would intentionally sabotage the dam.
What about Ukraine? It too had a plausible motive: washing away Russian minefields and fortifications on the left bank of the Dnieper. And like Russia, Ukraine could always benefit from a false flag attack.
Just as Zelensky accused Russia of plotting to blow up the dam, Russian General Sergei Surovikin accused Ukraine of doing the same thing. In fact, the two sides had been trading accusations for months.
What’s more, Ukrainian General Andriy Kovalchuk actually “considered flooding the river”, as the Washington Post reported in December. The Ukrainians “even conducted a test strike with a HIMARS launcher on one of the floodgates”. Although the “test was a success”, the step “remained a last resort” so they “held off”.
Either side could be behind the attack, and I think Russia being responsible is more plausible than in the case of Nord Stream. However, the fact that the dam’s destruction has once again put Crimea’s water supply in jeopardy suggests to me that Ukraine’s the more likely culprit. New evidence may yet tip the scales the other way.
Stop Press: Tucker Carlson broaches the whodunnit question in his first show for Twitter. He reckons it was the Ukrainians.
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As Tucker Carlson pointed out last night, the Russians have more to lose from the dam being breached than the Ukrainians and the destruction of the dam was known to be in Ukrainian battle plans. Similar to the NordStream destruction, we can probably put this down to Ukraine. Unless, of course, there’s a third party pushing buttons in this war – Nato – which could also be responsible.
..as of 6pm..Tucker’s video has had over 77 million views…..!
This was the headline In the Guardian…”Tucker Carlson peddles conspiracy theories on Twitter debut from barnEx-Fox News host backs Russia and insults Ukraine’s Zelenskiy in 10-minute monologue greeted with widespread derision”
…..LOL!! Just doesn’t seem to cut it..extra LOL!
The Russians could have done it to thwart the Ukrainian counter-offensive in the region. On the other hand the Ukrainian’s could have done it to distract from their failed counter-offensive and give Z more reason to rattle the money tins at Western audiences.
I don’t trust the propaganda on either side, but it mostly saddens me that I do not trust the propaganda being spouted by my own Government.
I don’t care.
Nor do I.
The Ukrainian leadership lies almost as much as Western Media outlets.
Russia doesn’t need a false flag.
Ergo, it’s either a delayed break from weakening (which can still sound like an explosion when it breaks), or it’s another Ukrainian /NATO war crime.
The real answer is, who knows? …. It may not have been either..there is a possibility that Ukrainian shelling from last year had weakened the structure so much it just collapsed…
This article from Zero Hedge has some theories…but that is all anyone can have at this stage…theories….
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/kievs-long-term-last-resort-plan-blow-kakhova-dam-exposed
Let’s not forget though that the Ukrainian’s and the West have previous for blaming anything and everything on Russia….
Russian’s were blamed for the Nordstream bombings, just a vociferously…and wrongly…by the exact same people…it’s odd timing that on the morning this news breaks that the Washington Post runs a major article..which undoubtedly has Government backing, that in fact Ukraine were to blame for the Nordstream bombings…
https://www.washingtonpost.com/
(Its behind a paywall….but a few highlights)
U.S. had intelligence of detailed Ukrainian plan to attack Nord Stream pipeline
Exclusive: Three months before saboteurs bombed the Nord Stream natural gas pipeline, the Biden administration learned from a close ally that the Ukrainian military had planned a covert attack on the undersea network, using a small team of divers who reported directly to the commander-in-chief of the Ukrainian armed forces.
Details about the plan, which have not been previously reported, were collected by a European intelligence service and shared with the CIA in June 2022.
The plan provides some of the most specific evidence to date linking the government of Ukraine to the eventual attack in the Baltic Sea, which U.S. and Western officials have called a brazen and dangerous act of sabotage on Europe’s energy infrastructure.
The highly specific details, which include numbers of operatives and methods of attack, show that for nearly a year Western allies had a basis to suspect Kyiv in the sabotage.
That assessment has only strengthened in recent months as German law enforcement investigators uncovered evidence about the bombing that bears striking similarities to what the European service said Ukraine was planning.
The European intelligence made clear that the would-be attackers were not rogue operatives. All those involved reported directly to Gen. Valery Zaluzhny, Ukraine’s highest-ranking military officer, who was put in charge so that the nation’s president, Volodymyr Zelensky, wouldn’t know about the operation, the intelligence report said.
Biden administration officials now privately concede there is no evidence that conclusively points to Moscow’s involvement…”
So, as they sat on this information for nearly a year….!!??
I am afraid I take any US “intelligence” with a pinch of salt. It has not proved very reliable over the past couple of years (at least).
Generally I would agree..I mean the CIA?..can’t lay straight in bed!!
But I don’t think that is really the point here (I personally think the evidence we have clearly points to the fact the USA did it)….but this is a big story in the MSM, in a newspaper that is well known as a Government mouthpiece…
So the question is why now? I think it’s interesting that the instigators of the proxy war are saying this openly?
Because it’s more of a ‘media’ war as far as Ukraine are concerned…when it’s America doing the ‘bad optics’ for Ukraine, I don’t think it can be ignored…
Ukraine blew it up for their own advantage one of which is to deflect from their horrendous losses over the last 3 days of their counteroffensive.
On June 6, Russian Defense Minister General of the Army Sergei Shoigu made an official statement on the situation on the frontline amid the ongoing ‘counter-offensive’ of the Kyiv regime.
According to the defense minister, during the 3 days of fighting in all directions, the losses of the Kyiv regime reached 3,715 troops, 52 battle tanks, 207 armoured fighting vehicles, 134 motor vehicles, 5 aircraft, 2 helicopters, 48 pieces of field artillery and 53 unmanned aerial vehicles.
At the same time, a total of 71 Russian servicemen died and 210 were wounded in repelling the Kyiv offensive. The Russian losses in military equipment were 15 battle tanks, 9 infantry fighting vehicles, 2 motor vehicles and 9 guns.
And it’s amateur hour again:
‘Russian MoD published a video earlier today allegedly showing a Ka-52 heli firing at a “Leopard-2” tank, which they called “the first video evidence” of its kind.
However, the Russian Voienniy Osvedomitel channel recognized this to not be a Leopard-2, and not even a tank, but a regular agriculture vehicle:
“We do not want to say anything, however, the vehicle in the footage published by the Ministry of Defense of the Russian Federation with its silhouette does not look like any tank at all.
However, these silhouettes are most reminiscent of combine harvesters. This is evidenced by the characteristic high-mounted unloading augers (pipes), which, due to their location, are clearly not guns. Also, the “tanks” do not have any signs of “turrets”.
In the second frame of the rocket impact, 4 wheels of a tractor similar to a John Deere 4830 sprayer are clearly visible.”
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=btEpF334Rtc
What is the Russian for “They were taking the pi**”. You don’t really think their analysts are so stupid as to mistake a 6 wheeled harvester for a tracked tank.
Whilst you and all the other Zelensky fan-boys are gloating over how stupid the Russkis were, they know what they have destroyed and aren’t telling us what really happened in case it breaks any feeling of complacency that they (Ukes) have left after the debacle of the last three days (and today if the news I have heard is correct).
Barney Munchausen….you really are a guinea a minute….priceless……the Russian analysts think you are that stupid…..I’ve got to stop now…….
I would appreciate your thoughts regarding the veracity of this and the author –
https://bigserge.substack.com/p/russo-ukrainian-war-dam
LOL…not going to happen..you can only look at facts by putting personal prejudice aside..something Serge points out….and that is not going to happen here….
one of the reasons I mentioned the WP article, is because the blowing up of the Nordstream caused what most people agree is an ‘ecological disaster’…so if the US thinks the Ukrainians are capable of that..why would they think they care about the ecological disaster a flood might have..or indeed the fact that it appears Ukraine blew up the the Togliatti-Odesa pipeline..the world’s largest ammonia pipeline as well yesterday….……
If this is their ‘start’..it seems they are willing to go to any extreme and affect their own people without compunction….
As ‘Big Serge’ (BS) says:
‘Breaching a dam is, after all, rather a desperation move – so maybe the question to ask is: who do you think is more desperate? Whose back is against the wall here – Russia, or Ukraine?’
Gumby is correct; no-one except a very few on either side can know for certain.
Nevertheless, BS has failed to consider this:
‘Shelling by Ukraine is highly unlikely as it would need to get massive explosives close to the foundations,”
Chris Binnie Visiting professor, University of Exeter and the chair of Tidal Engineering and Environmental Services.
“Back in the Second World War, there were the [Royal Air Force] Dambusters attacks on German dams and they had to spend a lot of time working out exactly where to place explosives on the dam in order to cause enough damage to cause it to breach,”
“It wasn’t a simple thing. You had to get the explosives right down on the upstream side of the dam at a deep depth. If it was just the top off the dam then it would probably still survive. You’d lose a bit of water but it would survive,”
Craig Goff, Technical Director and lead of the Dams and Reservoirs team at HR Wallingford, a civil engineering and environmental hydraulics consultancy.
So, a very precise strike with massive force from Ukraine, which does not have that capability (a HIMARS strike would not be sufficiently powerful)……or demolition explosives planted by Putin’s men in control of the dam site in order to delay, channel Ukrainian advances, detonated at exactly the moment that Ukrainian offensive efforts appear to be gearing up and when Putin’s men are preparing to withdraw?
This is a well known military tactic of forces withdrawing or preparing to withdraw in front of an advancing enemy:
‘The importance of demolitions in war time, with their consequences from the point of view of the high command and the general staff, cannot be underestimated’
‘The Military Engineer’ Brigadier Dumont 1927
So…..take your pick…….
Ukraine abd/or it’s western backers did it. The Ukie army left the riverbank a couple of hours before it blew up. In 2022 the US did a computer simulation of the dam being blown up and the consequences.
The Yanks
It’s irrelevant really, wars war! sh!t gets
f♡€×ed up!
If the Ukrainians were truly worried about the effect on the Kherson city inhabitants and the environment, then can anyone explain why they have turned on the taps at the dam upstream and are releasing masses of extra water to exacerbate the problem?
If you believe Russia did it YOU ARE TOTALLY BRAIN READ
Or rain bread?
Working at your usual level I see. How is Ukraine’s greatest anti-climax going?
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If you believe Russia did it YOU ARE TOTALLY BRAIN READ
There is so much that is wrong here I coughed up another £5.
It is not at all clear who had most to lose. It is a disaster for everyone. This is going to destroy farming in a whole chunk of the South of Ukraine for up to 5 years.Both sides are expecting to end up with Crimea, so it doesn’t help either of them to destroy the water supply. However, it is physically almost impossible for the Ukrainians to have done it with the kit they have got. They would have to deliver an enormous bomb right to the base of the dam, a la Dambusters, which would have been extremely obvious. (The Washington Post article is just about making some holes in the floodgates. What has happened here is the whole dam has been destroyed – an order of magnitude harder.)
As it is a disaster for the Russians as well, I suspect it was a plan that went wrong. The Ukrainians had occupied most of the islands in the river which was a good launching point for an attack across the river. A good plan from the Russian point of view would be to release enough water to flood all the islands without destroying miles and miles of farmland and villages. They might have been able to do it just by opening the floodgates but then it would have been obvious they did it. So a small hole. But maybe they underestimated the damage already done to the dam and the height of the water in the lake. Or maybe they just weren’t very good at calculating explosive charges.
You may very well be correct:
”Shelling by Ukraine is highly unlikely as it would need to get massive explosives close to the foundations,”
Chris Binnie Visiting professor, University of Exeter and the chair of Tidal Engineering and Environmental Services.
“Back in the Second World War, there were the [Royal Air Force] Dambusters attacks on German dams and they had to spend a lot of time working out exactly where to place explosives on the dam in order to cause enough damage to cause it to breach,”
“It wasn’t a simple thing. You had to get the explosives right down on the upstream side of the dam at a deep depth. If it was just the top off the dam then it would probably still survive. You’d lose a bit of water but it would survive,”
Craig Goff, Technical Director and lead of the Dams and Reservoirs team at HR Wallingford, a civil engineering and environmental hydraulics consultancy.
The more I read about it, the more I think it was a Russian cock-up of unbelievable proportions. There is no benefit to them as it worked out, but there would have been considerable military benefit to a more limited flood – pretty much preventing an Ukrainian attack from Kherson. It might even have been done without consulting the Kremlin by some military person who didn’t see the wider picture.
It seems pretty much impossible for Ukraine to have done it but also they have no convincing motive. What is the point of washing away Russian defences on the east bank if you also eliminate your chances of attacking that way? And what is the point of a false flag attack when everyone who matters is already convinced your opponents are deeply in the wrong.
I worry that Russia may use it as an excuse to escalate to tactical nuclear. It may not have been planned as a false flag attack but as it has happened, Putin may take advantage of it.
“The more I read about it, the more I think it was a Russian cock-up of unbelievable proportions.”
A few minutes after posting this we get the Russian telephone conversion which the Ukrainians claim they intercepted which includes:
…….
Speaker one: So our guys did it. It’s not them, it’s ours.
Speaker two: Really, it was ours? They said that the Khokhols [derogatory term for Ukrainians] blew it up.
Speaker one: They didn’t blow it up. Our saboteur group is there. They wanted to cause fear with this dam. It did not go according to the plan. More than they planned..
……….
Where is Ian Rons?