Annually about 1,500 people are killed on Britain’s roads. Just imagine if that figure increased by 5,000, there’d be the most awful fuss! Yet, it’s likely that across England heart failure deaths could be 5,000 higher in 2024 than in 2020 and still no ‘excess’ deaths would be recorded. How could this be? It’s all to do with inflation. Only this time it’s the level of ‘expected’ deaths that’s being inflated away rather than the pound in your pocket.
Already, in 2023, the expected level of heart failure deaths is 7% higher than it was in 2020. This means that we could see 3,000 more people die from heart failure in 2023 than in 2020 without registering any ‘excess’ heart failure deaths. In 2024 an increase of 5,000 heart attack deaths over the 2020 figure would also be reported as no ‘excess’ deaths.
‘Expected’ deaths are calculated by averaging deaths in prior years. The average will increase as data from prior years are replaced with data from recent years. As heart failure deaths in 2021 and 2022 have been so high the ‘expected’ rate of death goes up accordingly. Heart failure deaths in 2023 look set to continue this trend.
The latest data release from the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities incorporates six new weeks of data in 2023, from week ending March 24th 2023 to week ending April 28th 2023. This can be directly compared to the six weeks in 2020 at the start of the pandemic, from week ending the March 27th 2020 to week ending May 1st 2020.
During this six-week period in 2020 it was expected that 7,142 people would die from heart failure. This ‘expected’ death rate from heart failure was calculated using heart failure deaths from 2015, 2016, 2017, 2018 and 2019. By contrast, in 2023 it was expected that there would be 7,619 deaths from heart failure in the corresponding six-week period. That’s a 7% increase. So, when we look at excess heart failure deaths in 2023 they appear to be far lower than they would be if we had compared them to the 2020 base level.
In 2024, we’ll have lost 2015, 2016 and 2017 from the average and gained 2021, 2022 and 2023. The average will have increased to something like 7,856, a 10% increase on the 2020 figure.
At this juncture it’s worth just checking whether all-cause deaths and other causes of death, such as cancer, have increased at the same rate as heart failure. You may not surprised to learn that they haven’t. Whilst the level of expected all-cause deaths and cancer have increased by about 3%, the expected rate of heart failure has increased more than twice as fast to almost 7%. What’s so special about heart failure?
Having looked at the ‘expected’ numbers, what about the actual number of deaths?
In the six-week period of weeks 12-17 in 2023 there were 8,804 heart failure deaths. If we compare this to the expected level in weeks 12-17 in 2020 of 7,142 we can see that this amounts to a 23% increase. Of course, the reported ‘excess’ heart failure death rate isn’t reported as being 23% but rather 16% (still a big increase) because the ‘expected’ rate of heart failure deaths has been inflated over the past three years.
The next question to ask is, is an increase of 23% significant? Well, the increase in all-cause deaths in 2020 over the ‘expected’ level of deaths, bearing in mind that this was the year of a ‘once in a century’ pandemic, was about 14%. So, yes, I think a 23% increase is really something that should be looked at. A lot more people are dying from heart failure than was previously the case.
Following previous articles in the Daily Sceptic I’ve been criticised below-the-line for suggesting that the vaccine delivered some societal benefits. Specifically, I contend that they provided a narrative that allowed society to reopen. I stand by that view. In the absence of the vaccines I don’t believe that society would have reopened up as quickly as it did. That said, the only reason it was shut down in the first place was due to the panicked decisions of Government. I’m not a natural anti-vaxxer, I’m just anti-vaccines that don’t work and that people are coerced or tricked into taking.
To date, my objection to the vaccine rollout has been a libertarian one. I think the authorities overplayed their hand scaring people and coercing people who were never at any risk from Covid into getting jabbed with an under-tested treatment. Freedoms were trashed, informed consent was ignored and the door was opened for future Governments to steamroller individual rights. However, this increase in heart failure deaths makes me think that the vaccines were more dangerous than I had thought.
While I’m increasingly persuaded of a very significant link between mRNA vaccines and heart failure, I still don’t see the evidence of increased levels of cancer deaths post-vaccine. Cancer can be a slow burn disease and maybe the jury’s still out, but to date, the data don’t seem to show increased cancer deaths.
In recent months I’ve read a number of articles about an upsurge in cancers (examples include a piece by Karol Sikora from November 2022 in UnHerd and two pieces by Angus Dalgleish that appeared in the Daily Sceptic in November 2022 and January 2023) though not always specifically linked to the vaccine. However, if we look at the excess mortality figures produced by the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities we don’t see these concerns being translated into excess deaths. So far, in 2023 cancer deaths are lower than the expected figure.
Cancer deaths appear to be a very different case to deaths from heart failure. Heart failure deaths have consistently been above the expected level since March 2020, as can be seen in Fig 2.
What’s perhaps more illuminating is if we compare the rate of excess cancer deaths to excess heart failure deaths since March 2020. At the end of April 2023 the Office for Health Improvement and Disparities reports 26,580 excess deaths (14% above the inflated ‘expected’ rate of deaths) from heart failure compared to 8,304 (1.7%) excess cancer deaths. Interestingly, the acceleration of heart failure deaths really took off after the vaccine rollout started.
In Fig 3 I have drawn a red line at week ending March 5th 2021, by which time over 90% of the over-70s had been vaccinated. Since then, while there have been 929 excess cancer deaths there have been 17,693 excess deaths from heart failure. That means, since March 2021 excess deaths from heart failure are 19 times higher than excess deaths from cancer.
One might almost think that when Andrew Bridgen, Dr. Peter McCullough or Dr. Aseem Malhotra say that perhaps someone should look into excess heart failure deaths, they have a point.
It’s hard to know what to make of all this. The key takeaways seem to be:
- Deaths from heart failure in a six-week period in 2023 were 23% higher than the expected level for the comparable six-week period in 2020.
- The ‘expected’ number of excess deaths from heart failure is almost 7% higher in 2023 than in 2020. The level in 2024 is likely to be 10% higher than in 2020. Why, when cancer deaths have not similarly increased?
- Excess deaths from heart failure have increased significantly in comparison to the expected level of deaths; this is particularly true since the vaccine rollout.
- If cancer diagnoses are increasing this increase hasn’t shown up in the mortality figures yet.
- Over the last couple of weeks excess deaths in England have been over 18% higher than the expected level (see ONS data) in spite of the expected level of deaths being inflated by inclusion of deaths in 2021 and 2022 into the ‘expected’ death figure.
Surely, the time is long past when someone should be explaining what’s going on.
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So in a nut shell, their moving the goal posts to create a new normal? and pooof, all those pesky excess deaths disappear!
Yep it was always an inevitability as time wore on and the years passed with higher and higher numbers to work with than pre-toxic jab years. But all you do is just keep looking back and comparing to those pre-jab years. In reality it’s smoke and mirrors because you can never really normalise something which isn’t normal.
It’s like if they increased the parameters of what’s considered a healthy BMI. Suddenly there’d be no obesity problem because more people are falling in the ‘average’ category than the ‘overweight’ category. Manipulation and illusion..
Better than I could have put it
I precis this by saying that covid jabs are a vile, dangerous concoction.
That said, the deaths caused by these jabs in absolute terms are small and close to insignificant when considered as a proportion of the population.
When talking about a population of 67 million, 500, 1000 even 5000 deaths is not a major thing.
The same was true of the additional people that died from the nastier than usual flu that hit in 2020. If the media hadn’t spoken about it we wouldn’t have noticed.
And that, btw, is why they’re going to get away with it and no one will pay for the crime committed against those that are badly affected by these jabs. Because the numbers are basically small.
Every number is an individual…
The key thing you overlook is those deaths would not have happened – they were not due to natural consequence or accident.
If a particular model of motor car had notoriously bad brakes which caused about 500 deaths per year, would we just shrug shoulders and declare that in comparison to population it was not a major thing?
And if we’re being rational (or hard-hearted) about the number of excess deaths, what about the ages of the people dying from heart disease? Is the data granular enough to say whether 85-yos are dying 6 months earlier than they otherwise would, 45-yos are dying 40 years earlier, or 25-yos dying 60 years earlier? Is it more tragic and worse for society if these excess deaths are younger productive and fertile people?
Dealing with your point about the vaccine offering societal benefits by allowing us to emerge from lockdown earlier than otherwise, this was only true in the context of the fear and panic propaganda to which we were subjected. Additionally, vaccines were positioned as the ‘only’ solution when other treatments that did in reality work were deliberately suppressed. Thirdly, why were lockdowns used in the first place – the well established pandemic guidelines were thrown away for a hastily written policy that had no scientific backing. Finally, the mood was worsened by the moral appeal to keep others safe by taking the vaccine – now shown to be untrue – a major and damaging feature of the narrative around vaccine treatments.
One might almost think that perhaps someone is growing a spine.
Andrew Horsman
Here’s a plan for the PM to consider. Declare a national “novel pothole” crisis. Tell the country that potholes are a mortal danger to us all and that no-one is safe until everyone is safe and the last pothole in the land is filled. Point out that potholes pose an especial threat to the poorly, elderly, disabled, and other vulnerable groups. Put pressure on coroners to ascribe every road death to potholes. Make sure “pothole” is on the death certificate of anyone who died within 48 hours driving over, past, or around a pothole. Close any roads on which any pothole is found, immediately. Also close any nearby adjoining roads, just to be safe and as a precaution. If you live within 500m of a pothole you must stay at home to keep everyone safe. Require councils to put signs up everyone reminding everyone of the pothole danger and plaster the message across all forms of media – “one in three potholes are invisible”, that kind of thing. Create a hugely expensive national pothole tracking service. Give daily press conferences at which the numbers of reported potholes and pothole-related deaths are intoned by solemn-looking officials who project future increases in pothole deaths unless stricter measures are taken. Make the public’s life such a misery that they are desperate for a “way out” of the pothole crisis. Demonise any pothole-deniers who think it’s all gone a bit too far, and don’t let them go shopping.
Then … find a mate, let’s call him Tony, who runs a tarmacing business. Or any business. Your local pub landlord, maybe. Give Tony multiple billions of pounds of public money and tell the public that only Tony can solve the awful pothole crisis! A moonshot! Give him three weeks to flatten the roads. Watch him fill some potholes with something that looks a bit like sand, but which he assures you has been proven to be totally safe and effective. Don’t ask any awkward questions or probe too deeply about what’s actually in his concoction, and watch Tony swan off to Switzerland with your cash, boasting at international conferences how he worked at the speed of road surfacing to solve the crisis. Quietly ignore anyone who points out that most potholes appear not to have been filled, and those that were filled reappear with 2 or 3 months. Question the sanity and integrity of anyone who dares to point out that there appear to be more potholes, and road deaths & injuries, than ever before! Declare the pothole crisis over. We’ve just got to learn to live with potholes. Sign up to an international pothole treaty so that if another pothole crisis occurs we can get Tony and his mates in to do the business much quicker next time – and this time NO roads will be open until he’s filled them up with the latest version of his specially patented filler.
Hope to high heaven that no-one will hold you to account, and live the rest of your life in utter fear and trepidation that a day will soon dawn when all of your moral cowardice, corruption, and callous indifference to human suffering will come back to haunt you.
According to Andrew Bridgen, a Minister “who asked him what he wanted in order to shut up about the jabs” told him that no-one (ie the Government/Establishment) was ready to consider the evidence that the jabs may not be as safe and effective as they said. It could be 20 years before they were ready to have that conversation.
So the chances of them investigating, let alone explaining what is going on, are NIL. And they will attempt to cancel and shut down anyone else who tries.
In 6 years’ time, the Government’s official death/medical statistics will all be based on the Covid/post jab years …… and their “problem” will have disappeared. Along with the tens of thousands of people they’ve killed.
You’re right. The chances are nil. Why would countless people in authority, who were the architects ( or just complicit because they stood back and said nothing to object ) of this deadly fiasco, investigate their own crimes? They are all guilty of mass democide and an investigation would only highlight their culpability in these crimes against their own citizens. Then there’s the huge can of worms that it would open regarding all the other vaccines using mRNA tech coming our way, so an investigation is well and truly off the cards.
“Specifically, I contend that they provided a narrative that allowed society to reopen. I stand by that view.” Society should never have been closed in the first place. And since when has a narrative replaced sound evidence based policy making? Yes that’s right, since the government psyops nudge unit employed the taxpayers’ money to “scare the pants off” the very same taxpayers, to quote Matt Hancock. Is he in jail yet?
My guess is that it takes longer to die from cancer than it does from a massive cardiac failure.
Give it time.
Although I understand the author’s view that a “deus ex machina” seemed to be necessary to get some countries out of their self-induced lockdown delusions, reality showed this was not true.
Setting aside arguments that there should never have been any lockdowns, and a quite simple argument that the same propaganda that was used to scare the living daylights out of people could just have easily been applied to persuade people to go outside again (disappearing the daily death count and the “look into their eyes” ads would have gone a long way), simple reality showed us that getting out of lockdown was just as simple as – doing it – like we did in the summer of 2020.
The vaxx was introduced and intially seemed to work, so yes, people were very positive. That lasted until all of July 2021, when Israel was seeing a serious surge in infections and hospital admissions again – public health officials and “experts” knew then that the vaxx had failed. Actually, they knew in March 2021 with all the “breakthrough” infections, real experts knew before the vaxx rollout as they will have known that a shot that induces antibodies in the blood will not stop infection and transmission of a respiratory virus.
They then tried to salvage the poison by saying you needed just 1 more dose – and then just 1 more dose, and then doses every 6 months, every 3 months, every week…
That is when the gig was up and guess what – they just opened up, because they had no choice, people were not putting up with it any more. We opened up in summer 2020, should have spent the months between March 2020 and November 2020 preparing hospitals for a winter surge, and when we got through it, as we would have done, it would all have been over. Remember, the original lockdown was sold to us because the hospitals were unprepared and we needed to buy time, nothing to do with waiting for a rushed, improperly tested vax.
The vaxxes were never about being able to open up, but about power grabbing, the nazi passes and money, money, money. To be honest, I am now starting to view people who state they are not anti-vaxxers with the same incredulity and disdain as people have been viewing anti-vaxxers. Believe what you can see with your own eyes.
How to use a perfectly true statement to tell an absolute bare faced lie.
A politician’s dream.
Just one example of how the death jabs do not protect ( in this case, elderly ) people from the disease they are intended to. No time to read the paper but I also wonder if the jabs contributed to his heart failure, which at 83yrs old, his age would mask. But no wonder countries stopped doing post mortems once the bioweapons were rolled out;
”Autopsies have played a critical role in the history of medicine. The novel coronavirus pandemic is a period of time where autopsies have been particularly helpful in advancing our understanding of COVID-19 disease. So the question on the table is: if the mRNA COVID-19 vaccines raised antibodies against the ancestral wild type Wuhan strain of SARS-CoV-2, would they cover the Delta variant? The only real way to know is to find a case who is fully vaccinated with “protective” antibodies in the bloodstream who contracts COVID-19. Recently such a patient has been reported from Catania, Italy.
The important points of this paper are: 1) the original Pfizer-BioNTech COVID-19 Vaccine failed to stop the Delta variant, 2) antibodies are an invalid surrogate of protection and should have never been used 8 times by the US FDA in EUA approvals for extended use of COVID-19 vaccines.”
https://petermcculloughmd.substack.com/p/autopsy-of-fatal-delta-variant-in
Yes, that is the over-simplified way that mortality data is presented. It’s a quick and easy but rather inaccurate calculation.
The ONS used to calculate excess Winter mortality by comparing the average of the four months before and the four months after the period December to end-March with the average during this period. They abandoned this in 2020 as the average in the period April-July badly skewed the calculation.
A more meaningful calculation would be to calculate the trend in previous ‘normal’ times. If we do this we find that 2019 was a particularly low mortality year and including this in the simplistic ‘5-year average’ approach makes 2020 look even worse than it actually was.
Even better than an ‘all-ages’ approach would be establishing trends for each sex and age group. If we do this we find that for most groups 2019, 2020 and 2021 collectively average out only a little above the 2011-2018 trend. However, this approach is far more difficult to present in a snappy easy to understand way.
2020: The UK’s worst mortality rate since 2008
Of greater interest to me would be to answer why the UK’s mortality trend stopped improving in 2011?
(Edited for clarity – I hope)
Heart failure deaths have consistently been above the expected level since March 2020, as can be seen in Fig 2
As the vaccination programme didn’t start until Q1 2021 it seems it is unlikely to be involved.
Excess deaths from heart failure have increased significantly in comparison to the expected level of deaths; this is particularly true since the vaccine rollout.
I don’t see that in fig 2. Heart failure deaths seem to be just as much above average in 2021 as they were in 2022. The biggest peak on the diagram was Q2 2021.
Perfectly simples, all the additional cancer patients are being killed by heart attacks before the cancer can get them
Why is it still taking four hours for an ambulance to respond to a heart attack victim? Why are five ambulances then in a queue at the hospital when that ambulance arrives? What could be driving this demand for ambulances and the dangerously long waits? Why are the vaxxed continuously getting Covid? Why are there so any heart attacks, strokes and turbo cancers post the “warp speed” covid vaxx administration? People should be horrified with this information, but instead, they just shrug their shoulders in apathy. It is now what they come to expect. A broken nhs despite 20% vat, and a 40% tax band for some. But there is plenty of money to give to the third most corrupt country in the world, and plenty of money to house, feed and provide healthcare for the immigrants coming to the UK on dinghies. And yet not enough money to fund a BASIC service inthe national healthcare system for UK citizens. A disgrace run by an incompetent government.
Most people know that Andrew Bridgen was right when he tried to draw the attention of parliament to this, but they refused to listen. That demonstrates that our politicians are diabolically useless.